Softball - Printable Version
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Softball - SamuelMcF - 05-07-2018
I blinked and we lost 13 straight conference games.
What happened?
RE: Softball - BostonCard - 05-07-2018
(05-07-2018, 12:56 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote: I blinked and we lost 13 straight conference games.
What happened?
We aren't that good, play in a brutal conference and Allister is not a miracle worker. Plus injuries. I think people got a bit ahead of themselves after what was probably a fluke win and a decent record against a pretty bad non-conference schedule. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions one way or another about the direction of the program; it was always going to be a tough job to resurrect. And still, we have two more conference wins than last year (with three to play).
BC
RE: Softball - SamuelMcF - 05-07-2018
Appreciate your insight, BC. It seemed like we were getting pretty hyped up on the board and then all softball mentions completely stopped.
And, to nitpick, we had 2 conference wins last year (@Washington and @Oregon State) and 2 this year (@Utah, @UCLA). So no, we haven't improved in that regard - pending the last 3 to play, of course.
RE: Softball - JJJ - 05-07-2018
From what I can gather, the loss yesterday was quite the heartbreaker. I know you don't expect to win scoring 2 runs, but still...
"A late two-run home run by Arizona State's DeNae Chatman lifted the No. 8 Sun Devils to a 3-2 win over Stanford, Sunday, at Farrington Stadium.
Trailing 2-1, Chatman's sixth inning home run just cleared the centerfield wall to give Arizona State (42-9, 15-6 Pac-12) the come-from-behind lead."
http://gostanford.com/news/2018/5/6/softball-cardinal-falls-short.aspx
RE: Softball - BobK - 05-07-2018
Our top pitcher has been in and out and playing hurt
Our # 2 pitcher has been out 4-5 weeks
Our catcher and maybe top hitter out since about league started
A 340 hitter out 3-4 weeks now.
Beating ucla got me all excited but we can’t win the close games with 4 top players hurting
If you watch games vs last season it’s night and day on fundamentals and defense and awareness
Need health and a couple of hitters. Those coming in are good and we don’t lose much.
RE: Softball - d4cohn - 05-07-2018
(05-07-2018, 01:09 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(05-07-2018, 12:56 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote: I blinked and we lost 13 straight conference games.
What happened?
We aren't that good, play in a brutal conference and Allister is not a miracle worker. Plus injuries. I think people got a bit ahead of themselves after what was probably a fluke win and a decent record against a pretty bad non-conference schedule. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions one way or another about the direction of the program; it was always going to be a tough job to resurrect. And still, we have two more conference wins than last year (with three to play).
BC
I would compare the pitching stats during the Hanson era, to the first year this year under Allister. In my eyes, Coach Allister and Nyberg are miracle workers. As Bob said, our best offensive and defensive player (and most valuable player overall) only has 1 at-bat in all of Pac-12 play due to injury. Our freshman ace has been banged up for most of Pac-12 play. Our second top pitcher (a sophomore) was lost early in Pac-12 play for the year. Our starting CF has also been banged up for most of Pac-12 play, and the player that has to start in her place is hitting around .115. And we still have lost a lot of close games, including 2 one-run games this weekend. We have been pretty unlucky to not pick up a few more wins in conference. Sure, even winning a couple of more close games was not going to be enough to make the NCAA tournament, but this team is much improved from last year. And respectfully, our current senior and junior classes' development was really hampered by the previous staff.
Our incoming freshman year features multiple high school All-Americans, and is the No. 3 best class in the Pac-12 (behind UCLA and Oregon). Coupled with our strong rising junior class, we are still going to be thin in the infield next year (particularly if Whitney Burks does not return for her fifth year). As long as we schedule strategically in the non-conference, I think we should be at least in contention for an NCAA tournament berth.
RE: Softball - BostonCard - 05-08-2018
(05-07-2018, 08:06 PM)d4cohn Wrote: I would compare the pitching stats during the Hanson era, to the first year this year under Allister. In my eyes, Coach Allister and Nyberg are miracle workers. As Bob said, our best offensive and defensive player (and most valuable player overall) only has 1 at-bat in all of Pac-12 play due to injury. Our freshman ace has been banged up for most of Pac-12 play. Our second top pitcher (a sophomore) was lost early in Pac-12 play for the year. Our starting CF has also been banged up for most of Pac-12 play, and the player that has to start in her place is hitting around .115. And we still have lost a lot of close games, including 2 one-run games this weekend. We have been pretty unlucky to not pick up a few more wins in conference. Sure, even winning a couple of more close games was not going to be enough to make the NCAA tournament, but this team is much improved from last year. And respectfully, our current senior and junior classes' development was really hampered by the previous staff.
We've scored an average of 1.6 runs in conference, and given up an average of 6. I don't know how well the Bill James pythagorean theorm applies to softball, but it would predict a winning percentage of 0.080; or 1.7 wins versus 19.3 losses. In other words, our record reflects our run differential pretty well (if anything, we've been a touch lucky to have the runs scored against us come in a handful of blowouts, which left the remaining games a bit closer than they would have been in a typical distribution of runs).
And my recollection is that the previous coaching regime also had to deal with injury issues, but I don't follow this as closely as you guys do.
I'm still sanguine about the coach Allister because of the sheer depths from which this team has had to emerge; it would not have been reasonable to expect this team to be much further along than it is currently. However, I am struggling a bit to see evidence that she is a miracle worker.
BC
RE: Softball - BobK - 05-08-2018
See Allister at Minnesota 2017. Unless you think Minnesota is a hot bed of softball
RE: Softball - d4cohn - 05-08-2018
(05-08-2018, 04:46 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(05-07-2018, 08:06 PM)d4cohn Wrote: I would compare the pitching stats during the Hanson era, to the first year this year under Allister. In my eyes, Coach Allister and Nyberg are miracle workers. As Bob said, our best offensive and defensive player (and most valuable player overall) only has 1 at-bat in all of Pac-12 play due to injury. Our freshman ace has been banged up for most of Pac-12 play. Our second top pitcher (a sophomore) was lost early in Pac-12 play for the year. Our starting CF has also been banged up for most of Pac-12 play, and the player that has to start in her place is hitting around .115. And we still have lost a lot of close games, including 2 one-run games this weekend. We have been pretty unlucky to not pick up a few more wins in conference. Sure, even winning a couple of more close games was not going to be enough to make the NCAA tournament, but this team is much improved from last year. And respectfully, our current senior and junior classes' development was really hampered by the previous staff.
We've scored an average of 1.6 runs in conference, and given up an average of 6. I don't know how well the Bill James pythagorean theorm applies to softball, but it would predict a winning percentage of 0.080; or 1.7 wins versus 19.3 losses. In other words, our record reflects our run differential pretty well (if anything, we've been a touch lucky to have the runs scored against us come in a handful of blowouts, which left the remaining games a bit closer than they would have been in a typical distribution of runs).
And my recollection is that the previous coaching regime also had to deal with injury issues, but I don't follow this as closely as you guys do.
I'm still sanguine about the coach Allister because of the sheer depths from which this team has had to emerge; it would not have been reasonable to expect this team to be much further along than it is currently. However, I am struggling a bit to see evidence that she is a miracle worker.
BC
With respect to this year's team, last year's team was far more talented on offense, particularly due to last year's senior class, which featured Kylie Sorenson, Bessie Noll and Lauren Bertoy, who were members of the nation's #1 recruiting class, and developed during their freshman year under Coach Rittman. To my recollection, our three seniors were relatively healthy last year. Alyssa H has missed most of both Pac-12 seasons. Montana was not injured for all of Pac-12 play like she was this year. While last year's team did not have Maddy, I have no doubts that Coach Allister, particularly since Carolyn and Nikki have had to do most of the pitching anyway in Pac-12 play due to the injuries to Kiana and Maddy, would have gotten last year's team into the NCAA tournament.
Also, regarding our blowout losses, we have often had to leave pitchers in because we have been down to 2 pitchers for much of Pac-12 play. As such, if we had our full depth, I don't think the blowout losses would have been as one-sided.
RE: Softball - BostonCard - 05-08-2018
(05-08-2018, 05:15 PM)BobK Wrote: See Allister at Minnesota 2017. Unless you think Minnesota is a hot bed of softball
that’s why I’m sanguine
RE: Softball - BostonCard - 05-09-2018
It's worth noting that Minnesota without Allister this year is 36-15 (17-4 in the BigTen, second in conference). That's a step down from Allister's reccord last year (56-5; 21-1, first in conference) but not a collapse, suggesting that some combination of recruiting and talent development was responsible for her success at Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how far Minnesota falls over the next few years.
On the way up, it took Coach Allister three years before she made the NCAA tournament at Minnesota; I think that is a reasonable expectation for her at Stanford. If she can do it ahead of schedule, that's great, but I caution against overinflated expectations about the pace of change, followed by excuse making when the unreasonable expectations are not met.
BC
RE: Softball - d4cohn - 05-09-2018
(05-09-2018, 07:47 AM)BostonCard Wrote: If she can do it ahead of schedule, that's great, but I caution against overinflated expectations about the pace of change, followed by excuse making when the unreasonable expectations are not met.
BC
Was this referring to me? :) Here is what I said with regards my second-year expectations: "Coupled with our strong rising junior class, we are still going to be thin in the infield next year (particularly if Whitney Burks does not return for her fifth year). As long as we schedule strategically in the non-conference, I think we should be at least in contention for an NCAA tournament berth."
7 out 9 Pac-12 teams will likely make the NCAA tournament this year (6 if Oregon State does not win their series at last-place Utah, and as such, finishes with a losing record). In contrast, the Big 10 is likely only going to get 4-5 out 14 teams into the NCAA tournament, because the conference overall is weaker.
In two out of the three years prior to this year, Stanford was the only Pac-12 team not to make the NCAA tournament, as the other 8 teams all qualified. As such, with the talent added from a Top 20 recruiting class for next year, and our Top 15 junior class, barring injuries that could particularly hamper our infield depth, I don't this is an unreasonable expectation. (yes, I did not expect to lose our top two pitchers, our best offensive and defensive player, and our starting CF all to injury for most/all of Pac-12 play). Very mediocre teams from the Pac-12 and SEC have made the tournament largely on the strength of the conference alone. If you schedule a reasonably difficult non-conference, and pick up 5-7 conference wins, you will get an RPI in the 30-40 range necessary for an at-large berth. The selection committee (at least currently) strongly prioritizes high RPI numbers in selecting at-large berths. As such, there is literally a formula you can follow to qualify. And if that doesn't work, like for Oregon State and Missouri this year, you buy out tougher non-conference opponents and schedule cupcakes at the last second to ensure a .500 record. (Link: http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/article210172709.html)
RE: Softball - CTcard - 05-09-2018
(05-09-2018, 07:47 AM)BostonCard Wrote: ... suggesting that some combination of recruiting and talent development was responsible for her success at Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how far Minnesota falls over the next few years.
Well, I sure hope that was the case. I think that is what a college coach is supposed to do.
I don't think Minnesota's future performance will say much about Coach Allister's abilities, just as Shaw's success at Stanford doesn't say much either way about Harbaugh's coaching ability.
However, Stanford's future success certainly will.
RE: Softball - d4cohn - 05-12-2018
Stanford wins on senior day 2-1 to salvage the final game of the series and the season. Carolyn Lee was absolutely brilliant in the circle, striking out 7 in 8 complete innings, and stranding 12 Wildcat baserunners. Stanford thoroughly deserved this result, as the team was competitive throughout this weekend and last, and the pitching has been brilliant, even despite Maddy being out for most of this stretch, and Kiana being out for this entire stretch. Senior Lauren Wegner was the hero, scoring the game-winning run in the bottom of the eighth on a sacrifice fly. Stanford also snaps a 15-game losing streak against Arizona, dating back to 2013.
Because the final game of Utah's series with Oregon State was rained out, Stanford finishes the season in eighth place in the Pac-12, which is the first time since 2013 that the Cardinal have not finished last or tied for last. Not bad for a team that was a unanimous pick to finish dead last in the preseason.
Stanford finishes the year with a 24-31 record overall, 3-21 in Pac-12 play. Congratulations to the staff and the team on the progress they made this year.
With an absolutely outstanding recruiting class filled with All-Americans coming in, the future appears to be bright.
RE: Softball - BostonCard - 05-12-2018
This is wonderful news and a great way to end the season.
BC
RE: Softball - d4cohn - 05-12-2018
Whitney Burks also appears to be returning for her fifth year, as she was not among the seniors honored at Senior Day today. This is big for our infield depth, as we will already be losing Arden and Lauren to graduation. We may still be a little thin in the infield, but definitely not as much as we would be if Whitney was not returning. Whitney made great strides on defense this year under Coach Allister, and her ability to get on-base improved a bit too. Whitney had a very solid year on offense, posting a .273/.368/.446 stat-line, leading the team with 5 HR's, and tied with Montana Dixon for the team-lead in RBI with 26 (to provide some perspective on how big unfortunately, the Montana Dixon injury was in first game of Pac-12 play, Montana tied for the team lead in RBI, even though she only played in 32 out of 55 games. She only had 1 at-bat in all of Pac-12 play).
RE: Softball - BobK - 05-13-2018
Celebration
https://mobile.twitter.com/stanfordsball/status/995446146133704704
Card 15 said it all. Very happy for the players and coaches