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NCAA Championship Women's Tennis: National Champions! - Printable Version

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Women's Tennis: National Champions! - ColoradoTree - 05-21-2018

We're actually here. Again. For the third year in a row, Stanford (23-3) is in the NCAA final, and incredibly, the second time in three years Stanford has done it as a 15th seed. In the preseason ITA rankings, Stanford was #1 and Vanderbilt was #2. It's been a long, winding road here (remember when we were ranked #46?), but we're the last two teams standing.  The ITA had it right--these are the best two teams in college tennis. We've won 19 in a row; they've won 16 in a row. Should be a fun one.  

Vanderbilt Preview

The #1 team for much of the year, Vanderbilt (27-3) rolled through the SEC as its regular season and tournament champion, suffering just three losses--to Pepperdine at ITA Indoors, at Northwestern, and at Mississippi State.  No shame in losing to Pepperdine, and Northwestern at their place would be tough, but Mississippi State is a curious one.  The Bulldogs aren't bad, mind you, but it's like losing to Washington in Seattle, which, come to think of it, we almost did, so never mind.  

Vanderbilt is the #1 seed, the #1 team in the USTA rankings, and the #2 team in the ITA rankings, but only the #5 team by UTR Power 6 (in which we rank first).  Slam.tennis pegs Vanderbilt as a 56% favorite to win, the same odds Duke had of beating us. Let's hope it plays out similarly. 

Let's get this over with 

So, yeah. They beat us 7-0 when we played them earlier this year.  We've never lost 7-0 before, as far as I know. Now, sure, we didn't have Lord for that match, which meant that everyone had to play up a spot (I remain of the belief that if Lord had started the season healthy, she'd have been the #1, but Gordon took the spot and became the alpha as Lord worked her way back from injury).  Even so, we played them close, with three of six singles matches going to a third set, and Yee on the wrong end of two tiebreakers. But 7-0 is what we do to the San Jose States of the world; nobody does that to us. 

Due to lineup shuffling, there will only be two rematches from that February match: Gordon vs. Sharma (Sharma won in 3 sets) and Lampl v. Rosca (also a 3-setter).  

Lineups

Here's how things will look, with UTR differential in parentheses:

1. #15 Gordon vs. #11 Astra Sharma (Gordon trails by 0.15)
2. #40 Lord vs. #10 Fernanda Contreras (Lord trails by 0.05)
3. #93 Lampl vs. #44 Christina Rosca (Lampl leads by 0.18)
4. #43 Arbuthnott vs. Amanda Meyer (Arbuthnott leads by 0.21)
5. #96 Shin vs. Emma Kurtz (Shin leads by 0.35)
6. #102 Higuchi vs. Summer Dvorak (Higuchi leads by 0.48)

And at doubles:

1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon vs. #11 Sharma/Contreras
2. #84 Lampl/Yee vs. #69 Kurtz/Smith
3. Lord/Shin vs. Rosca/Meyer

In doubles, as has been the case recently, our best opportunity is at #2, while we've got a shot at both other courts (probably a better shot on 3 than on 1).  

Common Opponents

Florida: Stanford lost 4-3 (without Lord, ugh); Vanderbilt beat them 4-0, 4-3, and 4-0
North Carolina: Stanford won 4-1; Vanderbilt won 4-3
Georgia: Stanford won 4-0; Vanderbilt won 4-1

Recipe for beating the Commodores

For a team that's been ranked in the top three all year, it's surprising that Vanderbilt only has three ranked singles players, but as good as Vanderbilt is across the board, its depth isn't quite what other teams can boast, and in those 4-3 wins on its resume, it's often the doubles point and wins at the top three spots that sees Vandy through. On the flip side, the three times Vandy lost, they actually won the doubles point twice.  Against Northwestern, they lost the doubles point and suffered losses at 2, 4, and 6 singles; against Pepperdine, they won the doubles point, but lost at 1, 2, 4, and 5; against Mississippi State, they won the doubles point, but lost at 3, 4, 5, and 6.  

Looking at the UTR differentials, the Mississippi State result is the roadmap if we lose doubles again. We have solid leads at 5 and 6, slight leads at 3 and 4, and it's a coin flip at 2 and a slight Vandy lead at 1.  Kurtz has been the weakest spot in their lineup this year, so let's hope Shin can keep her terrific run of form going and take advantage. 

Prediction

Doubles is tight. Again. But this time, folks, we pull off a win on Courts 2 and 3 to get the doubles point.  Higuchi is the first player to book a victory (exorcising her NCAA final demons from last year when she got double-bageled against Florida), and Shin follows suit soon after. Sharma books a win for Vandy over Gordon at 1, Lord has her hands full at 2, and Lampl is in a dogfight at 3, so it's Emily Arbuthnott who clinches a 4-1 Stanford win.  If we lose doubles and need a 4th point, then the path to victory gets a lot murkier, but you'd be happy to take your shot with Melissa Lord or Caroline Lampl, given how well they've been playing. Lampl is technically favored by UTR,  but Rosca took it to her in the second and third sets in Nashville back in February. But Caroline is a different player right now. 

I've said time and time again that our championship hopes will depend on how well Lampl and Arbuthnott played. They were there for us today.  We'll need them tomorrow. 

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Lord's perfect 14-0 record gets some play (and rightly so), but it made me wonder what our other players' career NCAA tournament records are.  Here they are, with this year in parentheses:

1. Gordon 0-1 (0-1)
2. Lord 14-0 (4-0)
3. Lampl 10-2 (3-0)
4. Arbuthnott 7-1 (3-0)
5. Shin 3-0 (3-0)
6. Higuchi 8-1 (4-0)

Interestingly, Lampl was 5-0 her freshman year (including a terrific 3-set win over Vandy's Contreras), 2-2 last year, and 3-0 so far this year.  Shows growth, to me, at least.  Crushed the #5 spot as a freshman, struggled against better teams at the #4 spot as a sophomore, but has continued to improve and is really coming into her own at the #3 spot as a junior.  

Assuming everyone comes back and Lampl continues to improve, can you imagine how dominant she's going to be at the #3 spot behind Lord and Gordon next year?  (I think the #1 spot is up for grabs between those two.)  My goodness, our roster will be great.  Depth, as always, will be our strength, but here's how next year's lineup looks:

1. Lord/Gordon
2. Lord/Gordon
3. Lampl
4. Arbuthnott
5. Shin
6. Higuchi

Looks familiar, eh?  I know today's the national championship match and everything, but I am excited about next year.  And that's before we get to the bench: Kimberly Yee and incoming freshmen Sara Choy and Niluka Madurawe.

That is three blue chips on the bench, people.  That's not even fair.  No one is displacing Higuchi from the #6 spot in the lineup in crunch time, but you have to imagine that Lele is going to want to do some shuffling at the bottom of the lineup to get Choy and Madurawe some match experience in case someone else gets injured and we need them down the stretch next year.  Preseason tournaments do some of that, sure (we had all-Stanford semifinals at Northwest Regionals last fall--I'm dreaming of all-Stanford quarterfinals next year), but to get accustomed to winning a point for your team at this level?  That's something different entirely. I'd like to see Lele get some more matches on the schedule next year and use the ones that are unlikely to be competitive as opportunities for our freshmen. You could try and get some non-counting added matches with other opponents that have good depth, but it's not quite the same.  

Sorry for the tangent about next year when we're about to play for a national title this year, but as good and deep as this team is right now, it will be even better and deeper next year, which helps put this team's current run in context.  I think Stanford's team next year will be its best in several years, and we've played in the NCAA final for three straight years, winning one title and trying for a second today.
Bobby Knight of College Tennis Today posted his championship match preview this morning:  https://www.collegetennistoday.com/item/1765-ncaa-men-s-and-women-s-championship-previews.html

If you don't want to read it yourself, he thinks Vanderbilt takes the doubles point and wins on Court 1 in singles, while Stanford counters with wins on the back three courts for a 3-2 lead with Lord/Contreras and Lampl/Rosca the two remaining matches on court.  He sees them splitting, with Lord losing before Lampl clinches again, and Stanford coming away with a 4-3 win.  I'll take a win however it comes, but for my heart's sake, I would really like to win the doubles point today.  Can we do that, please?  

Here are the bullet points from his "notables" section (I added each player's lineup position in brackets):


RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Here's the link to the NCAA live stream: https://www.ncaa.com/championship/liveplayer/player?gameId=2928236

Live stats will be here: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=219362

If you want to follow individual matches, however, you may be out of luck--those streaming links are no longer on the tournament homepage.
And we're off!  Early doubles update:

1. Arbuthnott/Gordon trail 1-3
2. Lampl/Yee lead 3-1 
3. Lord/Shin lead 3-1 

Up a break on 2 and 3 early, so that's encouraging.

Doubles update:

1. Arbuthnott/Gordon trail 3-4 (down a break)
2. Lampl/Yee tied 3-3 
3. Lord/Shin lead 4-2

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - Spike - 05-22-2018

Trying to stream but NCAA site gets me to a direct tv ad but no further. 
Any help?

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

Lord and Shin now up 5-2 and serving for the match

In 1 and 2 we are down a break 4-3.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Doubles update:

1. Arbuthnott/Gordon lost 3-6
2. Lampl/Yee trail 3-5 
3. Lord/Shin lead 5-3 

Lampl/Yee have dropped four straight games and will serve to stay in it.

(Sorry, but I'm no help on the stream, Spike. It works for me using Chrome, so maybe it's a browser issue?)

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

Gordon/Arbuthnott fall 6-3

Lord and Shin are up 5-3
Lampl and Yee are down 5-3

Looking like we might need to win 4 singles matches.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Lampl was serving down 3-5 and 15-40, but fought it off and held to 4-5!  Still a chance....  Lord serving for the match at #3 now, up 5-4.

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

(05-22-2018, 10:37 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Gordon/Arbuthnott fall 6-3

Lord and Shin are up 5-3
Lampl and Yee are down 5-3

Looking like we might need to win 4 singles matches.

BC

Lord and Shin are up 5-4
Lampl and Yee are down 5-4

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - M T - 05-22-2018

(05-22-2018, 10:23 AM)Spike Wrote:  Trying to stream but NCAA site gets me to a direct tv ad but no further. 
Any help?

On my browser with various add ins to avoid unwanted activity, I don't get the stream.  On my other browser, I do.

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Lord/Shin won 6-4 at #3, but seconds later, Lampl/Yee fell 6-4 at #2, and Vanderbilt leads 1-0 after doubles.  Lampl/Yee started really nicely, going up 3-1, but then lost 5 of 6 to end it.  We'll need a good match from Lampl today in singles, so let's hope she channels her frustration.

We've been here before, including twice in this tournament against both UNC and Duke. Nothing new here. Just go out and win some matches. We look to be the favorite in three matches, with two others being toss-ups. Oh, and the last time we won NCAAs as a #15 seed? We lost the doubles point there, too, and went and won four singles matches at Courts 2, 4, 5, and 6. Let's do it again, shall we?

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

Lord and Shin win 6-4

but Lampl/Yee are facing match point.

BC
The good news is that Arbuthnott and Shin jump out to 2-0 leads.  Gordon was broken, but everyone else is on serve.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - M T - 05-22-2018

The feeds from the earlier rounds have no video.

Early, Lord & Higuchi are both down a break.  That's a surprise to me.
(05-22-2018, 11:12 AM)M T Wrote:  Early, Lord & Higuchi are both down a break.  That's a surprise to me.

And they're both back to even.  But Arbuthnott went from up a break to down a break.
I think we're down a break in 2 courts, up a break in 1.

Please do my cheering for me, as I have to get to work now.

Go Card!

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Vanderbilt 1, Stanford 0

Singles update:

1. Gordon tied 5-5 (she just saved three set points to get the break and get back on serve!)
2. Lord leads 6-4, 0-0 (had been down 3-1, so she's really turned it around) 
3. Lampl leads 5-4 (back on serve, but lots of breaks here)
4. Arbuthnott leads 6-4, 0-0
5. Shin leads 6-3, 0-0 
6. Higuchi leads 6-3, 0-0 (had gone down 3-1, but won 5 straight to take the set)
It would be nice if they could show a match other than Gordon-Sharma, as good as the tennis is there.  It's still worth just one point!
Four first sets so far! A lead in another match, and Gordon showed great fight to level hers back up at #1. Tennis is good, you guys.

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

LOL.  Wow, nice job so far!  We take five first sets, and Gordon is up 6-5 (on serve) in her first set.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - martyup - 05-22-2018

Scary momentum channge.  GO CARD!

Update -- Higuchi wins!

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

Higuchi evens the match at 1: 6-3, 6-2.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - ColoradoTree - 05-22-2018

Vanderbilt 1, Stanford 1

On court:

1. Gordon trails 6-7, 1-4 (down one break) 
2. Lord leads 6-4, 2-6, 0-0
3. Lampl leads 6-4, 3-2 (on serve)
4. Arbuthnott leads 6-4, 3-4 (down a break)
5. Shin leads 6-3, 3-2 (up a break)

Completed matches:

6. Higuchi wins 6-3, 6-2 

**

Lord's set really got away from her. She was up 2-0 with game points for 3-0 but was broken on deuce point. Then she was up 40-0 on Contreras's serve, so 4 points for a 3-1 lead, but Contreras stormed back. Nothing going right for her at the moment, and Contreras has all teh momentum.  

Five first sets for us, but Vanderbilt is up a break in the second (or won the second) in two of those five.  

Higuchi couldn't get any video on her match?  How do you not show a player about to secure a point?  Come on, NCAA....

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - BostonCard - 05-22-2018

Things are not looking good for Gordon at #1; she is down 7-6, 4-1
At #2, Contreras evened it up on Lord, (6-4, 2-6); they are going to a third set
At #3, Lampl is up 4-2 in the second set after taking the first 6-4; she might be the next one off the court
At #4, Arbuthnott is down 5-3 in the second set after taking the first 6-4
At #5, Shin is up a break 3-2 in the second set after taking the first 6-3

It would be nice if Shin and Lampl closed their opponents out, and then it were up to either Arbuthnott or Lord.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: One Last Match - qwerty49 - 05-22-2018

(05-22-2018, 12:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Things are not looking good for Gordon at #1; she is down 7-6, 4-1
At #2, Contreras evened it up on Lord, (6-4, 2-6); they are going to a third set
At #3, Lampl is up 4-2 in the second set after taking the first 6-4; she might be the next one off the court
At #4, Arbuthnott is down 5-3 in the second set after taking the first 6-4
At #5, Shin is up a break 3-2 in the second set after taking the first 6-3

It would be nice if Shin and Lampl closed their opponents out, and then it were up to either Arbuthnott or Lord.

BC

What a nail-biter!  I have a feeling your'e right, it will come down to Arbuthnott and Lord.