If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - Printable Version
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If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - cardcrimson - 09-01-2018
No Pac-12 team will be in the playoff this year.
or so say pundits on three different channels. . . .
Why? Because the nation believes the Pac-12 is weak after LAST season's bowl game debacles.
RE: If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - winflop - 09-01-2018
The rest of the nation believes the Pac-12 is weak EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.
The Pac-12 champion's only route to the CFP is a 12-1 record with at least one other conference champion with 2 losses. And even then...
RE: If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - d4cohn - 09-01-2018
Big 12 is in even worse shape than the Pac-12, starting with Texas Tech down a couple of scores to Ole Miss (not expected to be very good), and Texas down 10 to Maryland (even with the program turmoil there).
And West Virginia (one of the dark horse playoff contenders for the Big 12) is in action against Tennessee (who will probably be terrible this year). If WVU somehow blows that game, the Big 12 is in terrible shape (namely OU or bust, as they have been for at least 5 years now).
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24310810/introducing-college-football-playoff-predictor-which-likes-clemson-better-alabama
"How reliant the Big 12 is on Oklahoma? The Sooners have a 24 percent shot to return to the playoff, but the Big 12 as a whole has only a 29 percent chance between all of its schools combined. That's a lower percentage than six individual schools.
If Lincoln Riley can't get the Baker Mayfield-less Sooners back to the national semifinal, then the Big 12's best bet is probably Texas. If the Longhorns were to take a major step forward in Tom Herman's second season and somehow reach the playoff (3 percent chance), it would likely be on the back of its defense. After adjusting for the powerful offenses in the Big 12, last year's defense actually was the fifth-most efficient in the FBS last season and FPI projects the unit to be the third-best defense this year.
No matter what, the Big 12's chances at a championship this season are low -- even compared just to Notre Dame."
Though a Washington loss to Auburn would do double damage, because I think the real threat is from the SEC getting two teams (ESPN Analytics puts it at ~25%). Auburn is one of the CFP contenders out of the SEC, so a loss would not only diminish (but definitely not eliminate) probably the Pac-12's top playoff contender, it would increase the chance of a two-team SEC bid, like last year.
RE: If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - ChicagoCard - 09-01-2018
One quibble is they also have TCU, and, TCU plays Urban Meyer St this month.
RE: If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - d4cohn - 09-01-2018
(09-01-2018, 10:37 AM)ChicagoCard Wrote: One quibble is they also have TCU, and, TCU plays Urban Meyer St this month.
Very true. And TCU did start out with a top 15 ranking. However, similarly to USC not being thought of as a strong playoff contender, despite a high early season ranking, TCU is expected to regress (possibly pretty significantly this year). TCU lost their best defensive player to a torn Achilles before the season, and they, like USC, are starting a new QB.
RE: If Washington Doesn't Beat Auburn Today. . . . - winflop - 09-01-2018
Too much being read into week 1, except for the Pac-12 which must demonstrate beginning week 1.