Big Game - Printable Version

Big Game - Printable Version

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Big Game - lex24 - 11-11-2018

This is the first BG since 2009 that I have felt UCB has a good chance to win. Matchup is good for them. Defensively they may be the best team Stanford has faced this year. They are disciplined, the backfield is very good. Their inside linebackers make a ton of plays. They pressure the QB. They disguise blitzes very well. And they are opportunistic. Wilcox is a very good defensive coach.

Offensively, they are pedestrian at best. No speed on the outside. Garbers is an average passer. But he can hurt you with his feet. Laird is by far their best offensive player. Hard inside runner and he catches a lot of balls in the flat. Once Wilcox stopped playing McIlvaine they have stopped turning the ball over. (Although he did go to him for a couple plays late vs WSU and it cost them.)

UCB will try to control the clock, limit mistakes offensively and create a turnover or two defensively.

Stanford has to stop the run. Blitz. Pressure Garbers. Press on the outside. UCB does not have downfield threats

Offensively it will all be about protecting Costello. If he has time, they will be fine. But that is a big if. I don’t expect Stanford to run well.

It is going to be a tough game. I expect it to come down to the 4th quarter. I sure hope Toner is back.

RE: Big Game - BostonCard - 11-11-2018

I’m inclined to agree with you; Cal impressed me in their game against USC. I think we can beat Cal if we play within ourselves and don’t make mistakes. Cal’s Strength is forcing the opponent to make mistakes and taking advantage.

One nit, though. Gravers is not an average QB. The only QB’s with a worse pass efficiency are Daniels at SC and the UCLA QB. His numbers are marginally better than Chryst’s last year.

That’s not to say they aren’t dangerous, but if we can get a lead early and force Garbers to win it, I like our chances.

BC

RE: Big Game - qwerty49 - 11-12-2018

Agree this looks like a very close game. Cal beat $C and UW and held Wazzu to 19. Their defense has a lot of very tough hardnosed guys. And Laird runs like a LB anyway.

Meanwhile KJ’s downfield passing has been unreal. Here’s hoping we can run just enough to take some heat off KJ.

It sure would be nice if some of our walking wounded were good to go in this one. I love Wedington but the drop off from JJAW to him is noticeable at this point.

I really hope it doesn’t come down to a kick.

RE: Big Game - OutsiderFan - 11-12-2018

QB - Stanford
OL - Stanford
RB - Stanford
TE - Stanford
WR - Stanford
DL - Cal
LB - Cal
DB - Cal
ST - Stanford
Run Game - Cal
Pass Game - Stanford
Run D - Cal
Pass D - Cal
Coaching - Cal

Cal is IMO, the 3rd-best coached team in the Pac-12, right behind WSU and Utah. Had they not lost a game they should have won at Arizona, and beat UCLA at home as you would expect given their other results, Cal would be two wins and a UW win away from playing in the championship game.

I personally don't think Cal has enough on offense to beat Stanford if Stanford plays a clean game. Though from a season stats perspective, Stanford's offense is in the bottom half of the conference, the reality is Stanford's offense, when playing to its strengths, is right at the top of the conference. Washington and USC aren't as efficient on offense as Stanford, and importantly, Stanford is #10 in penalties. Cal can't beat Stanford unless Stanford turns the ball over in their own end of the field or commits bad penalties.

Stanford is averaging .440 points per play, good for #35 in FBS. Cal is averaging .278, good for #121 in FBS.
Stanford is yielding .333 points per play, good for #39 in FBS. Cal is yielding .299, good for #25 in FBS.

Cal is giving up more points per play than it scores. I like these stats because they take away the points scored by defense and special teams. Cal has scored on defense a few times this season, which makes their PPG mask an even worse offense than it really is.

Everything suggests a relatively close game Stanford should win if Stanford doesn't give the game away.

RE: Big Game - Spiny_Norman - 11-12-2018

Everyone is describing a close, defensive, low scoring game which is exactly what we saw last year in the Big Game. Cal's kicker bounced a FG off the cross bar and Ben Edwards made a critical INT in the 4th quarter. Otherwise, Cal played Stanford just about even.

RE: Big Game - CTcard - 11-12-2018

(11-12-2018, 07:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: ... Though from a season stats perspective, Stanford's offense is in the bottom half of the conference, the reality is Stanford's offense, when playing to its strengths, is right at the top of the conference. ...

Stanford is averaging .440 points per play, good for #35 in FBS. Cal is averaging .278, good for #121 in FBS.
Stanford is yielding .333 points per play, good for #39 in FBS. Cal is yielding .299, good for #25 in FBS.

I am assuming you got those numbers from TeamRankings.com.
That's fine, but I note that site has had apparently inaccurate numbers at times, or at least numbers I cannot verify.

Your statement about Stanford's offense being good when it plays to its strengths would roughly translate to Stanford's offense struggling for the first five games and moving the ball generally well in the more recent five games. Stanford's offense has certainly been a different beast lately, and season average stats mush two very different styles and levels of productivity together.

TeamRankings does have a past three games entry on their points per play stat. By that we have*
#20 Stanford 0.534 points/play #1 in Pac 12.
#124 cal 0.203 point/play #12 in Pac 12.

The opponents for Stanford in that stretch were OSU, UW, WSU - so one terrible defense and two very good defenses.
The opponents for cal in that stretch were U$C, WSU, UW - so the same two very good defenses and an $C defense that is pretty good, certainly much better than OSU.

I suppose I should do the same exercise for the defense, but it is not clear to me that there has been any such abrupt change in the approach or performance of the defense.

* I cannot find an explicit statement of what TeamRankings includes for points per play.
Over the past three games, my own calculations would give the following numbers:
Stanford
0.559 pts/play all points and all plays
no defensive points scored
cal
0.214 pts/play all points
0.171 pts/play removing defensive scores (1 safety, 1 TD no extra point)

Obviously, the numbers I calculated don't match the TeamRankings numbers, which is why I am suspicious of that site. I concede that there could be some method for counting points and plays that would give TeamRankings' numbers, but I don't know what that is.

RE: Big Game - JPR36 - 11-12-2018

(11-12-2018, 12:26 AM)qwerty49 Wrote: Agree this looks like a very close game. Cal beat $C and UW and held Wazzu to 19. Their defense has a lot of very tough hardnosed guys. And Laird runs like a LB anyway.

Meanwhile KJ’s downfield passing has been unreal. Here’s hoping we can run just enough to take some heat off KJ.

It sure would be nice if some of our walking wounded were good to go in this one. I love Wedington but the drop off from JJAW to him is noticeable at this point.

I really hope it doesn’t come down to a kick.

I think it could definitely come down to a kick. Actually I'll be a little surprised if it doesn't.
Is Toner definitely out? Anyone know?
Don't tell me now, he's "day to day".

CardinalSagehen - CardinalSagehen - 11-12-2018

(11-12-2018, 10:37 AM)JPR36 Wrote:
(11-12-2018, 12:26 AM)qwerty49 Wrote: Agree this looks like a very close game. Cal beat $C and UW and held Wazzu to 19. Their defense has a lot of very tough hardnosed guys. And Laird runs like a LB anyway.

Meanwhile KJ’s downfield passing has been unreal. Here’s hoping we can run just enough to take some heat off KJ.

It sure would be nice if some of our walking wounded were good to go in this one. I love Wedington but the drop off from JJAW to him is noticeable at this point.

I really hope it doesn’t come down to a kick.

I think it could definitely come down to a kick. Actually I'll be a little surprised if it doesn't.
Is Toner definitely out? Anyone know?
Don't tell me now, he's "day to day".

No data. Toner looked fine on the sidelines and was even hopping around a bit. But it would be hard to tell if he had, say, a quad pull.

I'm a big fan of trying Jake Bailey for FGs. His high school kicking stats were great. If we need a 60-yarder with 3 seconds remaining, I'm hoping he gets a shot at it. We know he has the leg!

Otherwise, I suggest we bring back John Hopkins, dress him as #37 and have him kick it right-footed. Yeah, it might cause NCAA sanctions, but Big Game must be won by all means necessary!

On the bright side, I did notice that Riccitelli straightened out the rest of his PATs after missing again the other night. Prior to that, every kick was either nearly or fully wide-right. He'll probably find his way...

RE: Big Game - 82lsju - 11-12-2018

turnovers might be important, Stanford is 6-0 this season when forcing at least one turnover, and 0-4 when not forcing a turnover.

https://gostanford.com/news/2018/11/12/football-axe-on-the-line.aspx?utm_source=fb-organic&utm_medium=commpost_2018-11-12_1B2B3C&utm_campaign=football_sg-california_preview__

RE: Big Game - lex24 - 11-12-2018

Yep, only 5 losses from a shot at the NC. And thank goodness coaches don’t play. Stanford would go 0-12.

(11-12-2018, 07:23 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: QB - Stanford
OL - Stanford
RB - Stanford
TE - Stanford
WR - Stanford
DL - Cal
LB - Cal
DB - Cal
ST - Stanford
Run Game - Cal
Pass Game - Stanford
Run D - Cal
Pass D - Cal
Coaching - Cal

Cal is IMO, the 3rd-best coached team in the Pac-12, right behind WSU and Utah. Had they not lost a game they should have won at Arizona, and beat UCLA at home as you would expect given their other results, Cal would be two wins and a UW win away from playing in the championship game.

I personally don't think Cal has enough on offense to beat Stanford if Stanford plays a clean game. Though from a season stats perspective, Stanford's offense is in the bottom half of the conference, the reality is Stanford's offense, when playing to its strengths, is right at the top of the conference. Washington and USC aren't as efficient on offense as Stanford, and importantly, Stanford is #10 in penalties. Cal can't beat Stanford unless Stanford turns the ball over in their own end of the field or commits bad penalties.

Stanford is averaging .440 points per play, good for #35 in FBS. Cal is averaging .278, good for #121 in FBS.
Stanford is yielding .333 points per play, good for #39 in FBS. Cal is yielding .299, good for #25 in FBS.

Cal is giving up more points per play than it scores. I like these stats because they take away the points scored by defense and special teams. Cal has scored on defense a few times this season, which makes their PPG mask an even worse offense than it really is.

Everything suggests a relatively close game Stanford should win if Stanford doesn't give the game away.

RE: Big Game - Phogge - 11-13-2018

Eric, how about TD turnovers replacing TD cookies?

RE: Big Game - BostonCard - 11-13-2018

(11-13-2018, 01:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: Eric, how about TD turnovers replacing TD cookies?

Maybe turnover cookies? I mean, if Miami has their turnover chains, and OSU has a turnover chainsaw. I’d go for a turnover axe, especially at big game, but Alabama beat us to it.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/bamamag/status/777916599097495552?s=21[/tweet]

I blame Shaw for this oversight.

BC

RE: Big Game - qwerty49 - 11-13-2018

(11-13-2018, 01:45 AM)BostonCard Wrote: I blame Shaw for this oversight.

BC

Ok, I won’t call you a Shawpologist any more.

RE: Big Game - CompSci87 - 11-13-2018

How about turnover turnovers?

https://goo.gl/images/L6Npxd

RE: Big Game - 82lsju - 11-13-2018

(11-13-2018, 01:03 AM)Phogge Wrote: Eric, how about TD turnovers replacing TD cookies?

turnovers don't travel as well as cookies, and yes we will have TD cookies in the stands on Saturday.......

RE: Big Game - Phogge - 11-13-2018

Oh come on Eric. Nice fresh apple turnovers are available on the walk from BART to the stadium.

RE: Big Game - 82lsju - 11-13-2018

(11-13-2018, 12:45 PM)Phogge Wrote: Oh come on Eric. Nice fresh apple turnovers are available on the walk from BART to the stadium.

sounds like a sweet tradition you can start!!!

RE: Big Game - Spiny_Norman - 11-25-2018

Let's bring this thread back to page 1.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1066501188818894848[/twitter]

RE: Big Game - winflop - 11-25-2018

It's Big Game.

Throw out the records (unless there's brobdingnagian disparity). Throw out the spreads.

This will be a close game (i.e., one score). I expect Stanford to come out on top because they have more potential to score 20+ than the Weenies do. I just hope ShawVitaBerry don't totally screw it up.

RE: Big Game - JJJ - 11-25-2018

Call me old fashioned but I like Big Game being the last game of the regular season. Bring it on!