Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Printable Version
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Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Papa John - 02-05-2019
We're halfway through the men's Pac-12 BB conference schedule, and the only things that are clear is that UW is winning the regular season conference championship and WSU and C.al are really bad.
There are three teams at 6-3, three at 5-4 and Stanford and UO are tied for eighth at 4-5. At 11-10 overall Stanford is not making the NCAA without winning the Pac-12 tournament and we're probably not making the NIT.
However, with a healthy Cormac Ryan and continued inconsistency from opponents not named UW, I could see Stanford working its way up to the top half of the conference standings for the second year in a row. We have roadies against the Oregon and Arizona schools and home games against the LA and Washington schools as well as hosting C.al in the regular season finale. A "good" scenario in my mind would be wins versus:
UO--currently tied with us at 4-5
UA--only a games ahead of us at 5-4
U$C--1-5 in road games
UCLA--2-4 in road games
WSU and C.al.
It's depressing to set the bar so low, but it could be worse.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - 2006alum - 02-05-2019
(02-05-2019, 12:17 AM)Papa John Wrote: Stanford Every PAC-12 team other than Washington is not making the NCAA without winning the Pac-12 tournament . . .
It's depressing to set the bar so low, but it could be worse.
Fixed it for you. I don't think hoping for a 6-3 finish to the season is a low bar abstractly, it's just a low bar given how terrible the conference is this season. We have upcoming games against former powerhouses like Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon, and yet the average Kenpom ranking for our remaining opponents is 105th, and not one of those teams is in the top 25, including conference-undefeated Washington.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - PVTree - 02-05-2019
(02-05-2019, 12:17 AM)Papa John Wrote: A "good" scenario in my mind would be wins versus:
UO--currently tied with us at 4-5
UA--only a games ahead of us at 5-4
U$C--1-5 in road games
UCLA--2-4 in road games
WSU and C.al.
It's depressing to set the bar so low, but it could be worse.
Too optimistic from what I have seen.
We beat WSU and Bezerkley (we already beat them at their place)
We lose to Washington and both Arizona schools
We lose to both Oregon schools away
We split the LA schools.
I see 3-6, perhaps 4-5 if we sweep LA schools. I don't think we win another road game. We play awful away from Maples.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Spiny_Norman - 02-05-2019
(02-05-2019, 12:17 AM)Papa John Wrote: We're halfway through the men's Pac-12 BB conference schedule, and the only things that are clear is that UW is winning the regular season conference championship and WSU and C.al are really bad.
There are three teams at 6-3, three at 5-4 and Stanford and UO are tied for eighth at 4-5. At 11-10 overall Stanford is not making the NCAA without winning the Pac-12 tournament and we're probably not making the NIT.
However, with a healthy Cormac Ryan and continued inconsistency from opponents not named UW, I could see Stanford working its way up to the top half of the conference standings for the second year in a row. We have roadies against the Oregon and Arizona schools and home games against the LA and Washington schools as well as hosting C.al in the regular season finale. A "good" scenario in my mind would be wins versus:
UO--currently tied with us at 4-5
UA--only a games ahead of us at 5-4
U$C--1-5 in road games
UCLA--2-4 in road games
WSU and C.al.
It's depressing to set the bar so low, but it could be worse.
Beating Arizona in Tucson would be monumental, a major win for Jarod Haase. Stanford has lost 18 games in a row to the Wildcats.
I think a good goal is to finish above the bottom 4 schools to avoid having to play a preliminary round game in the P12 tournament. Yeah, the bar is set very low.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - TooMuchTV - 02-05-2019
(02-05-2019, 09:23 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Beating Arizona in Tucson would be monumental, a major win for Jarod Haase. Stanford has lost 18 games in a row to the Wildcats.
I think a good goal is to finish above the bottom 4 schools to avoid having to play a preliminary round game in the P12 tournament. Yeah, the bar is set very low.
To skip the first round, you need to finish above the bottom 8 schools. This isn't the Pac-10 anymore.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - winflop - 02-06-2019
(02-05-2019, 07:38 AM)PVTree Wrote:(02-05-2019, 12:17 AM)Papa John Wrote: A "good" scenario in my mind would be wins versus:
UO--currently tied with us at 4-5
UA--only a games ahead of us at 5-4
U$C--1-5 in road games
UCLA--2-4 in road games
WSU and C.al.
It's depressing to set the bar so low, but it could be worse.
Too optimistic from what I have seen.
We beat WSU and Bezerkley (we already beat them at their place)
We lose to Washington and both Arizona schools
We lose to both Oregon schools away
We split the LA schools.
I see 3-6, perhaps 4-5 if we sweep LA schools. I don't think we win another road game. We play awful away from Maples.
4-5 is what I'm expecting. I don't see them winning more than one roadie, and more likely to drop one of Cal/UCLA/USC/WSU at home in addition to UW.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Treebound - 02-08-2019
Maples is a shell of its former self...it pains me every time I walk into the place for a game. The potential was there had Reid stayed for his final year, but I can't blame him and he's clearly doing well for the Wildcats.
As for Haase, I'm hopeful that this young team will turn the corner next year. If not, I think the leash needs to be short. Middle of the road in a down Pac12 is no place to be in an athletic department and a university that strives for excellence in all things.
What is the short list of up and coming coaches?
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - needle - 02-08-2019
(02-08-2019, 09:59 AM)Treebound Wrote: Maples is a shell of its former self...it pains me every time I walk into the place for a game. The potential was there had Reid stayed for his final year, but I can't blame him and he's clearly doing well for the Wildcats.
As for Haase, I'm hopeful that this young team will turn the corner next year. If not, I think the leash needs to be short. Middle of the road in a down Pac12 is no place to be in an athletic department and a university that strives for excellence in all things.
What is the short list of up and coming coaches?
Is Okpala going to stay, and, if not, does that change how we (and more importantly Muir) evaluate Haase after 2019-20?
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - SamuelMcF - 02-08-2019
(02-08-2019, 02:29 PM)needle Wrote: Is Okpala going to stay, and, if not, does that change how we (and more importantly Muir) evaluate Haase after 2019-20?
All the mock drafts I've seen have him mid-late 1st. If that's the case, he gone.
Should this be the case, it would certainly show something that Haase found and developed the first Stanford "early" (non-senior) draftee since the Lopi. Dawkins never did it.
I just hope Haase isn't the basketball Jim Mora. But I'm still giving him 2 more seasons to recruit and develop a full team of only his own guys (Stanback/Pugh were recruited by Dawkins) before blowing the whistle.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - burger - 02-08-2019
This thread made me wonder where Okpala might be drafted. Guessing draft position is a sucker's game, but here's a rundown of mock drafts.
SI: 15th https://www.si.com/nba/2019/01/30/nba-mock-draft-2019-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-ja-morant-cam-reddish
ESPN: 19th https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/ESPN-2019-NBA-Mock-Draft-127935665/#127935665_4
NBAdraft.net: 8th! https://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft
SB nation: 18th https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/1/23/18190748/nba-mock-draft-2019-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-ja-morant-order
NBC: 22nd https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/01/17/2019-nba-mock-draft-2-0-zion-williamson-remains-no-1-duke-goes-1-2-3/
Fingers crossed that he really values getting a degree and will come back for one more season and then graduate after 3 years.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - BostonCard - 02-08-2019
(02-08-2019, 03:08 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(02-08-2019, 02:29 PM)needle Wrote: Is Okpala going to stay, and, if not, does that change how we (and more importantly Muir) evaluate Haase after 2019-20?
All the mock drafts I've seen have him mid-late 1st. If that's the case, he gone.
Should this be the case, it would certainly show something that Haase found and developed the first Stanford "early" (non-senior) draftee since the Lopi. Dawkins never did it.
I just hope Haase isn't the basketball Jim Mora. But I'm still giving him 2 more seasons to recruit and develop a full team of only his own guys (Stanback/Pugh were recruited by Dawkins) before blowing the whistle.
The downside is what does it say that with an early departure/first round draft pick Haase is aspiring for an NIT bid?
BC
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - JJJ - 02-09-2019
Muir was quoted talking hoops (but not Stanford) here.
Quote:“There was considerable discussion about the order of the top seven schools, but certainly those teams separated themselves from the others at this time,” said Muir, the director of athletics at Stanford. “Duke and Tennessee were essentially 1 and 1a; it was that close. A slight edge in some of the metrics was the difference in Duke getting the overall top seed. Virginia was a solid No. 3 team on the top line, and Gonzaga got the fourth No. 1 seed based largely on the teams they’ve beaten and the quality of the opponents they’ve lost to.”
And from Pat Forde in the same article:
Quote:The Pac-12 is having a 2018-19 season every bit as bad as the ACC’s is good, at least in the glamour sports of football and men’s basketball. After again being shut out of the College Football Playoff, it’s unclear whether the putative Power Five league will get more than one team in the Big Dance. Washington, the runaway leader of the Pac-12 at 19-4 overall, 10-0 in the league, only ranks 25th in the NCAA NET ratings, and no other Pac-12 teams are higher than 70th in the NET heading into Saturday’s games.
http://sports.yahoo.com/5-takeaways-ncaa-tournament-early-seeding-reveal-acc-crushing-pac-12-wallows-191723483.html
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - BostonCard - 02-10-2019
(02-08-2019, 09:59 AM)Treebound Wrote: Maples is a shell of its former self...it pains me every time I walk into the place for a game. The potential was there had Reid stayed for his final year, but I can't blame him and he's clearly doing well for the Wildcats.
As for Haase, I'm hopeful that this young team will turn the corner next year. If not, I think the leash needs to be short. Middle of the road in a down Pac12 is no place to be in an athletic department and a university that strives for excellence in all things.
What is the short list of up and coming coaches?
I was interested, so I wanted to see how Travis is doing. Obviously the Wildcats are a much better team, and they are ranked #5 and in second place in the SEC. Travis has started 20/23 games for Kentucky (not sure why he didn't start 3), but since he is on a much more talented and deeper team, he isn't being asked to do as much. He's playing about 6 fewer minutes per game, and his utilization rate on offense is about 60% what it was last year when he played for us. His rebounds are down, but not quite as much as his scoring, and his blocks are up, probably because he can be more aggressive as he doesn't have to worry about foul trouble quite as much as at Stanford. The unfortunate thing for him, though, is despite not being the focus of opposing defenses as he was and would have been at Stanford, his offensive efficiency is not any better than it was last year. FG% is basically the same as last year (.522 down from .527) and his 3-point field goal percentage is actually worse (.263 down from .295). I wonder where this leaves him on the draft boards. I didn't see him in the one mock draft I looked at, but I didn't look exhaustively.
Of course, what he does get is an NCAA tournament berth and a chance to compete for a trip to the final four. I think a Stanford team with Travis would obviously be better than what we have this year, but I'm not sure how much better, and certainly not enough better to think a final four is a possibility as anything more than a low-seed cinderella (if we even make the NCAA tournament with Travis).
Anyway, bummed that he left, but it seems like he is doing alright for himself at Kentucky, even if it doesn't seem like it is making much of a difference in his NBA prospects.
BC
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - 2006alum - 02-10-2019
Good points, BC. And yikes: this mock-draft has KZ going 6th to the Grizzlies, and Travis no where in the first two rounds. If that's legit, there's no chance KZ is staying. Guess we should have worried more about KZ last year than Travis!
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - 2006alum - 02-10-2019
Uh, did Oregon create a voodoo doll of a tree this morning? 12 minutes into the first half of our men's game, we've scored a total of 2 points. The ducks seem to be our kryptonite today.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - SamuelMcF - 02-10-2019
(02-10-2019, 06:29 PM)2006alum Wrote: Uh, did Oregon create a voodoo doll of a tree this morning? 12 minutes into the first half of our men's game, we've scored a total of 2 points. The ducks seem to be our kryptonite today.
1 for 20 from the field so far. And thus our on-game off-game streak continues.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - BostonCard - 02-10-2019
The good news is that we are warming up and won't head into halftime with a single digit offensive production.
The bad news is pretty much everything else.
BC
Well, the halftime score is 30-20, which, given that 18 out of those 20 were scored in the last 7-plus minutes of the half... I guess it could have been worse.
BC
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Spiny_Norman - 02-10-2019
For those not watching live, Daejon Davis is not playing today.
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - Ratmandoo - 02-10-2019
(02-10-2019, 07:19 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: For those not watching live, Daejon Davis is not playing today.
And Da Silva hasn't played the entire second half. He also sat out the end of the first half. Assume he got hurt at some point in the first half which is a shame as he's been playing much better over the last couple of games.
This team just can't be healthy all at the same time
RE: Pac-12 MBB at the turn - chrisk - 02-10-2019
Only a 2 game spread among the 9 teams following UW. In the final 7 games, 1 or 2 of those teams will have to really break away or win the P12 tourney to make their case for the NCAA.
Stanford is one of 3 teams with 5 of last 7 at home so there is that.