Outside Topic Baseball - analytics and free agency. - Printable Version
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Baseball - analytics and free agency. - lex24 - 02-24-2019
At one point there was a debate about analytics and its place in baseball. That debate is over – the mathematicians won. Unfortunately. As a result we have a game that is 1/3 strike outs, walks or homeruns. That has almost no place for “small ball” (situational hitting is so yesterday) or the running game. True starting pitchers – you know those guys who could consistently go deep in games - are a thing of the past. You’re now a hero if you go seven innings and frankly most of them aren’t expected to go more than five. After all, can’t go through that order third time the analytics don’t support it.Openers? I love what Bumgarner had to say – that he’ll walk right out of the stadium if they ever have an “opener” try to start his game. To me they’ve taken a hell of a lot of beauty out of baseball.
You are seeing the impact of analytics on the free-agent market. And it’s going to have a brobdingnagian impact moving forward. The players are not going to take this lying down. What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand. Gerardo Parra is a great example. I suspect he makes the Giants and thus the major league salary kicks in. But he’s got no guaranteed money.
I don’t think you’re going to see long-term contracts given to pitchers anymore. Not along the lines of what Kershaw received. First, there’s been a deemphasis on starting pitching anyway. You now just bring in a bevy of middle relievers - all who can throw mid 90s – and when they throw their arms out there’s a bunch of kids waiting in the minor leagues you can bring up to do the same damn thing. Second, arm issues.
As for the players asso - they are going to push back hard on how long teams can control players. Right now, it’s 6 years. With arb eligibility after 3. The players will strike over this if necessary. They should. I’d be pushing for 3 years control if I’m the Union. With hopes I could get it down to 4.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - Mick - 02-24-2019
(02-24-2019, 12:19 PM)lex24 Wrote: As for the players asso - they are going to push back hard on how long teams can control players. Right now, it’s 6 years. With arb eligibility after 3. The players will strike over this if necessary. They should. I’d be pushing for 3 years control if I’m the Union. With hopes I could get it down to 4.
I seem to recall that, many years ago, Glenn Dickey used his bully pulpit to advocate for 100% free agency every year, with the caveat that contracts be limited to one-year contracts. That would be interesting.,
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - d4cohn - 02-24-2019
(02-24-2019, 12:19 PM)lex24 Wrote: At one point there was a debate about analytics and its place in baseball. That debate is over – the mathematicians won. Unfortunately. As a result we have a game that is 1/3 strike outs, walks or homeruns. That has almost no place for “small ball” (situational hitting is so yesterday) or the running game. True starting pitchers – you know those guys who could consistently go deep in games - are a thing of the past. You’re now a hero if you go seven innings and frankly most of them aren’t expected to go more than five. After all, can’t go through that order third time the analytics don’t support it.Openers? I love what Bumgarner had to say – that he’ll walk right out of the stadium if they ever have an “opener” try to start his game. To me they’ve taken a hell of a lot of beauty out of baseball.
You are seeing the impact of analytics on the free-agent market. And it’s going to have a of immense proportions impact moving forward. The players are not going to take this lying down. What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand. Gerardo Parra is a great example. I suspect he makes the Giants and thus the major league salary kicks in. But he’s got no guaranteed money.
I don’t think you’re going to see long-term contracts given to pitchers anymore. Not along the lines of what Kershaw received. First, there’s been a deemphasis on starting pitching anyway. You now just bring in a bevy of middle relievers - all who can throw mid 90s – and when they throw their arms out there’s a bunch of kids waiting in the minor leagues you can bring up to do the same damn thing. Second, arm issues.
As for the players asso - they are going to push back hard on how long teams can control players. Right now, it’s 6 years. With arb eligibility after 3. The players will strike over this if necessary. They should. I’d be pushing for 3 years control if I’m the Union. With hopes I could get it down to 4.
Agree with most of this, except on the Kershaw point. I am not sure about Kershaw's last contract, but Kershaw didn't receive a long term deal this offseason. It was 3-year, 90+ mill.
lex24 - lex24 - 02-24-2019
I was referring to Kershaws orig contract, not the extension. That contract was 7 years $215,000,000. He had an opt out which led to the 3 year deal.
(02-24-2019, 01:44 PM)d4cohn Wrote:(02-24-2019, 12:19 PM)lex24 Wrote: At one point there was a debate about analytics and its place in baseball. That debate is over – the mathematicians won. Unfortunately. As a result we have a game that is 1/3 strike outs, walks or homeruns. That has almost no place for “small ball” (situational hitting is so yesterday) or the running game. True starting pitchers – you know those guys who could consistently go deep in games - are a thing of the past. You’re now a hero if you go seven innings and frankly most of them aren’t expected to go more than five. After all, can’t go through that order third time the analytics don’t support it.Openers? I love what Bumgarner had to say – that he’ll walk right out of the stadium if they ever have an “opener” try to start his game. To me they’ve taken a hell of a lot of beauty out of baseball.
You are seeing the impact of analytics on the free-agent market. And it’s going to have a of immense proportions impact moving forward. The players are not going to take this lying down. What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand. Gerardo Parra is a great example. I suspect he makes the Giants and thus the major league salary kicks in. But he’s got no guaranteed money.
I don’t think you’re going to see long-term contracts given to pitchers anymore. Not along the lines of what Kershaw received. First, there’s been a deemphasis on starting pitching anyway. You now just bring in a bevy of middle relievers - all who can throw mid 90s – and when they throw their arms out there’s a bunch of kids waiting in the minor leagues you can bring up to do the same damn thing. Second, arm issues.
As for the players asso - they are going to push back hard on how long teams can control players. Right now, it’s 6 years. With arb eligibility after 3. The players will strike over this if necessary. They should. I’d be pushing for 3 years control if I’m the Union. With hopes I could get it down to 4.
Agree with most of this, except on the Kershaw point. I am not sure about Kershaw's last contract, but Kershaw didn't receive a long term deal this offseason. It was 3-year, 90+ mill.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - martyup - 02-24-2019
This doesn't make economic sense:
Quote:What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand.
A free agent is free to negotiate. He gets paid what he is worth to a team in the free market. If a younger player of equal talent takes the job he wanted, he asked too much and should have lowered his salary expectations.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - d4cohn - 02-24-2019
(02-24-2019, 04:28 PM)martyup Wrote: This doesn't make economic sense:
Quote:What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand.
A free agent is free to negotiate. He gets paid what he is worth to a team in the free market. If a younger player of equal talent takes the job he wanted, he asked too much and should have lowered his salary expectations.
TC salaries for players just entering majors are inherently going to be less than even veteran's minimum. So even if veterans asked for the veteran's minimum (or very close to it), if there are enough TC players that can produce at or close to the same value as the veterans, the clubs are going to choose the TC players, every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
The TC players would seemingly also be preferable for another reason: the age curve, or the teams' concept of it.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - BostonCard - 02-24-2019
(02-24-2019, 04:28 PM)martyup Wrote: This doesn't make economic sense:
Quote:What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand.
A free agent is free to negotiate. He gets paid what he is worth to a team in the free market. If a younger player of equal talent takes the job he wanted, he asked too much and should have lowered his salary expectations.
And if the MLB labor market was truly free, you’d be right. But right now, younger guys get paid less than they are worth because of the way the draft and free agency work.
Tough to compete in a market where there are price controls.
BC
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - gocard14 - 02-25-2019
Unfortunately you can't blame the teams for this, they are just acting in their best interest in looking at what the data shows, which is that in general free agents are a poor use of funds. Teams are just getting wiser to this fact. The problem lies in service time rules that keep players under team control at artificially lowered salaries for such a long time. Currently players are under team control for basically 7 years of professional time (6 full years, which every team games the system to be ~6.99 years), meaning even longer if they spend significant time in the minors. This means players hit free agency either at or after their peak performance, and teams are hesitant to pay for past performance when most players are likely to decline. The answer is to increase salaries while under team control and shorten that time frame, which IMO should be 4 years from when the player is drafted, like it is in NFL/NBA contracts. Rather then arbitration, restricted free agency can be used which gives the home team the option to match salaries.
There also needs to be a salary floor, as currently the option for small market owners is pay for a relatively poor value free agent (relative to players under team control) or keep that money in your pocket. If forced to spend X amount that increases the spending on free agents. We are definitely heading towards a strike/lockout if this keeps up.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - BostonCard - 02-25-2019
(02-25-2019, 12:06 PM)gocard14 Wrote: Unfortunately you can't blame the teams for this, they are just acting in their best interest in looking at what the data shows, which is that in general free agents are a poor use of funds. Teams are just getting wiser to this fact. The problem lies in service time rules that keep players under team control at artificially lowered salaries for such a long time. Currently players are under team control for basically 7 years of professional time (6 full years, which every team games the system to be ~6.99 years), meaning even longer if they spend significant time in the minors. This means players hit free agency either at or after their peak performance, and teams are hesitant to pay for past performance when most players are likely to decline. The answer is to increase salaries while under team control and shorten that time frame, which IMO should be 4 years from when the player is drafted, like it is in NFL/NBA contracts. Rather then arbitration, restricted free agency can be used which gives the home team the option to match salaries.
There also needs to be a salary floor, as currently the option for small market owners is pay for a relatively poor value free agent (relative to players under team control) or keep that money in your pocket. If forced to spend X amount that increases the spending on free agents. We are definitely heading towards a strike/lockout if this keeps up.
I like Mick's solution better. Every year, teams can bid on every player (majors or minors, and even players in college) for a one-year contract. Or at least eliminate the draft and structured contracts out of college. Let teams and players negotiate freely.
BC
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - martyup - 02-25-2019
I don't follow MLB and I wasn't aware that there were restrictions to a free market for the labor of free agents. Sounds like anti-trust laws should be invoked.
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - BostonCard - 02-25-2019
(02-25-2019, 08:25 PM)martyup Wrote: I don't follow MLB and I wasn't aware that there were restrictions to a free market for the labor of free agents. Sounds like anti-trust laws should be invoked.
Yes, it should, but for the fact that baseball has an anti-trust exemption based on a US Supreme Court ruling dating back to 1922 on the (somewhat quaint but ridiculous basis) that baseball is a game, not a business.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Baseball_Club_v._National_League
The solution is for congress to pass a law that revoked the exemption, and congress has threatened to do so from time to time but has never done it.
And to bring a Stanford angle to it, here's an article interviewing some Stanford law professors about it...
https://news.stanford.edu/2015/02/24/antitrust-baseball-court-022415/
BC
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - JJJ - 02-26-2019
And to bring yet another Stanford angle to this, Jed Lowrie listed as one of those not benefiting from the current trend...
Quote:The gig economy has come to baseball, and it is not all good news for players.
Just ask D.J. LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie and just about all free agents, especially second basemen, who no longer are counted on to fill traditional, everyday jobs. Baseball players are learning the hard lesson many Americans have learned about a gig economy: pay goes down when the work becomes more flexible and less steady.
http://www.si.com/mlb/2019/01/24/free-agency-gig-economy-dj-lemahieu-brian-dozier-jed-lowrie
RE: OT: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - TerryMulhern - 02-26-2019
Quote:At one point there was a debate about analytics and its place in baseball. That debate is over – the mathematicians won. Unfortunately. As a result we have a game that is 1/3 strike outs, walks or homeruns. That has almost no place for “small ball” (situational hitting is so yesterday) or the running game. True starting pitchers – you know those guys who could consistently go deep in games - are a thing of the past. You’re now a hero if you go seven innings and frankly most of them aren’t expected to go more than five. After all, can’t go through that order third time the analytics don’t support it.Openers? I love what Bumgarner had to say – that he’ll walk right out of the stadium if they ever have an “opener” try to start his game. To me they’ve taken a hell of a lot of beauty out of baseball.
You are seeing the impact of analytics on the free-agent market. And it’s going to have a of immense proportions impact moving forward. The players are not going to take this lying down. What’s happened in the market is you have a ton of players in their early 30’s, solid major-league baseball players that are free agents but they can’t get major league contracts. Because you can find somebody younger and significantly cheaper and the “WAR won’t be much different. So they are forced to floow the writemyessay guidelines and sign minor league contracts. Which gives the organization the upper hand. Gerardo Parra is a great example. I suspect he makes the Giants and thus the major league salary kicks in. But he’s got no guaranteed money.
I don’t think you’re going to see long-term contracts given to pitchers anymore. Not along the lines of what Kershaw received. First, there’s been a deemphasis on starting pitching anyway. You now just bring in a bevy of middle relievers - all who can throw mid 90s – and when they throw their arms out there’s a bunch of kids waiting in the minor leagues you can bring up to do the same damn thing. Second, arm issues.
As for the players asso - they are going to push back hard on how long teams can control players. Right now, it’s 6 years. With arb eligibility after 3. The players will strike over this if necessary. They should. I’d be pushing for 3 years control if I’m the Union. With hopes I could get it down to 4.
I just don't get it. If they are free agents, why are they limited? Who officially decides that and where are the rules (open to public)?
RE: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - BostonCard - 03-20-2019
Resurrecting this thread now that Bryce Harper signed a $330 million contract: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/bryce-harper-contract-details-breakdown-of-the-salary-bonuses-and-perks-in-his-13-year-deal-with-the-phillies/
And not to be outdone, Mike Trout signed a $430 million contract: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-trout-is-a-430-million-bargain/
BC
RE: Baseball - analytics and free agency. - GK3 - 03-21-2019
(03-20-2019, 09:10 AM)BostonCard Wrote: Resurrecting this thread now that Bryce Harper signed a $330 million contract: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/bryce-harper-contract-details-breakdown-of-the-salary-bonuses-and-perks-in-his-13-year-deal-with-the-phillies/
And not to be outdone, Mike Trout signed a $430 million contract: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mike-trout-is-a-430-million-bargain/
BC
How on earth can one player be worth that kind of money to a baseball team?? I have no understanding whatsoever of the economics of baseball, but to me the numbers seem senseless.