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Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - Printable Version

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Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2019

It's a split weekend for Stanford, as the women host Santa Clara this afternoon at 3:30pm before flying to Eugene for a road matchup against Oregon at 11:00am on Sunday. The Santa Clara match is a makeup for the rained-out match the weekend before the Vanderbilt match (UC Davis was also cancelled, and that match will be played in a few weeks). 

So far this season

You know our deal--preseason #1, lost a tough one at National Indoors to eventual champion Georgia, thumped Vanderbilt 6-1 at home (in a match that was very nearly 7-0 in what would have been poetic justice for last year's 7-0 defeat to Vanderbilt in Nashville, but we already settled that score), and has had some bad rain luck early, all adding up to a 6-1 record and the #4 ranking. We're good.  Santa Clara, by contrast, is not (3-5). Nor is Oregon, which is a bit more surprising. Oregon lost Alyssa Tobita to graduation, but that team finished #28 in the country last year, and this year, they're just 6-5, including losses to teams like Denver, Idaho, and UNLV. 

Common opponents:

St. Mary's: Stanford won 4-0; Oregon won 5-2
Princeton: Stanford won 7-0; Santa Clara lost 6-1

Matchups to watch:

The action is on Court 1 against Oregon, as Michaela Gordon gets #87 Shweta Sangwan, Oregon's lone ranked singles player. Gordon beat Sangwan 6-4, 7-6 in the Round of 16 at Northwest Regionals this past fall, but Gordon then lost to San Diego's Solymar Colling in a shock upset, and Sangwan easily dispatched Colling in their match a couple of weeks ago, 6-1, 6-3. So, it should be a good match, and if Sangwan plays well, she has it in her to beat Gordon. Santa Clara's #1, Maddie Pothoff, is a good player but Gordon shouldn't be tested too much in that one. Bottom line: we are significantly better than both of these teams, and we should win both matches handily. 

How to watch:

If our courts dry off and stay dry (seems likely at this point), you can watch the Santa Clara match here: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/. 

For the Oregon match, you can watch a live stream here: https://goducks.com/sports/2017/1/12/womens-tennis-live-stream.aspx
You can also follow along with live stats here:  http://www.statbroadcast.com/events/statmonitr.php?gid=ore

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-07-2019

We're doing actually what you should do when facing an overmatched opponent--rest some starters, and get your bench some experience.  

Lampl and Arbuthnott get the night off in singles, as Shin and Higuchi shift up to #3 and #4, respectively, and Choy and Madurawe get a shot at #5 and #6. And it's Choy and Madurawe who book first sets first.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - cardfan77 - 03-07-2019

wow! Yee didn't crack the lineup?

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - oldalum - 03-07-2019

looks like in singles everyone won except Gordon lost a third-set 10-point tiebreaker 13-11. Lord won two sets both in 7-point tiebreakers. Everyone else cruised easily. I guess Santa Clara is strong on 1-2 but no depth after that. Nice that Choy got a chance to play finally.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-08-2019

(03-07-2019, 08:16 PM)oldalum Wrote:  looks like in singles everyone won except Gordon lost a third-set 10-point tiebreaker 13-11. Lord won two sets both in 7-point tiebreakers. Everyone else cruised easily. I guess Santa Clara is strong on 1-2 but no depth after that. Nice that Choy got a chance to play finally.

I'm glad Michaela shook off the first set loss to take the second, but it's still a bummer of a result for Michaela--she can't keep absorbing big upset losses like this. Since Pothoff isn't in the Top 125, this loss alone adds at least 1.2 loss points to Michaela's rankings formula. (The individual ranking formula is much the same as the team rankings formula--you get big points for beating highly-ranked people, you don't get punished much for losing to highly-ranked people, and you get crushed for losing to low-ranked people. Gordon now has 8 losses this year, but most of those aren't a brobdingnagian deal for her ranking--she has lost to the #1, #2, #3, #6, #21, and #31 players to account for 6 of those losses. It's the other two, to Pothoff and now-#93 Solymar Colling, that hurt her chance to qualify for the NCAA singles/doubles championships.) Of course, just like San Diego's Colling, this win could be enough to put Pothoff in the rankings, which would minimize the negative impact in future rankings. But Sophie Whittle from Gonzaga crushed Pothoff, 6-2, 6-1. If Gordon wants to consistently be a Top 10 player, she has to figure out a way to put away lesser players like this consistently. We know Gordon has it in her to beat the best players in the country, but sometimes she seems to struggle in finding that same killer instinct against players she should beat more easily. It's a super common thing in tennis, of course, but this was a damaging loss for her. This would have been a great opportunity for her to get back in the win column, too, with a tough match against Shweta Sangwan this weekend. I was busy around the match tiebreaker, but there seemed to be some sort of animated discussion immediately after it ended, so I wonder if there was a disputed call or something. Anyone see what happened? 

I was a little surprised to see Choy slotted ahead of Madurawe, but only because it seemed like Madurawe had been having the slightly better season so far--better tournament results and cracking the doubles lineup. A good opportunity for Shin to play in the stadium for the first time, too. 

And we're not delving into Lord's match too much because she won (figuring out a way to win helps a lot), but needing two tiebreakers to dispatch a lesser player is a red flag. Again, she won, and winning when you're not playing your best is a great sign of her mental toughness, but that was an eyebrow-raiser.  

I'll try not to read too much into this match, though, because I really like most of what happened--Shin and Higuchi dominating even when shifted up the lineup, Choy and Madurawe being the first two off the court, Higuchi getting a clinch, doubles dominating, and Shin getting worked back into the doubles lineup with Madurawe to keep those instincts sharp.

Oh, and Yee played doubles, but I'd guess Lele knows Yee will be OK in a spot #6 singles start if she has to be put there, whereas it's more useful for the team overall (not just for this year but for future years) to get the two freshmen a chance in a dual match.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - oldalum - 03-08-2019

I only watched a few minutes of the match, but in that time Pothoff looked as good as Gordon, and Lord's opponent looked like she had a very fast first serve, which could account for the 6-6 sets if her serve was on and tough to break as a result (I don't know how many breaks of serve there were, if any). Hopefully Pothoff will start climbing up the rankings ladder so this loss won't hurt Gordon as much.

Lele calibrated her line-up changes perfectly. Knowing we'd win the doubles point easily, and that we could potentially lose the top two singles matches, she was confident we'd win the bottom 4 and she was right. A bit of a risk because a loss to Santa Clara would have hurt our team ranking a lot.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-10-2019

Some more lineup shuffles today. Doubles was as normal, but Gordon is out of the singles lineup and everyone else shifts up a spot, putting Madurawe at #6. 

We’re up one after doubles (Lampl/Yee and Lord/Madurawe booked wins, while Arbuthnott/Gordon lost on Court 2). 

So far, we’ve booked first sets from Lampl at 2, Shin at 4, and Higuchi at 5. Lord leads 4-3 at 1, Arbuthnott leads 5-3 at 3, and Madurawe leads 6-5 at 6.

Lord is in for a fight today. Sangwan knocked off Cal’s Rosenqvist already this weekend, so Sangwan’s ranking should see a boost.
That’s first sets for everyone now.

1. Lord leads 6-3, 0-0
2. Lampl leads 6-2, 2-0
3. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 1-0
4. Shin leads 6-1, 1-0
5. Higuchi leads 6-2, 2-1
6. Madurawe leads 7-5, 1-0

They played it out with Cal (who won 5-2), and given the first sets, I wouldn’t mind doing the same here.
Going quickly now: 

1. Lord leads 6-3, 2-1
2. Lampl wins 6-2, 6-1
3. Arbuthnott leads 6-3, 3-2
4. Shin leads 6-1, 5-0
5. Higuchi wins 6-2, 6-2 (first off court)
6. Madurawe leads 7-5, 2-3

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-10-2019

6-0 now: 

1. Lord leads 6-3, 2-3
2. Lampl wins 6-2, 6-1
3. Arbuthnott wins 6-3, 6-3
4. Shin wins 6-1, 6-1
5. Higuchi wins 6-2, 6-2 (first off court)
6. Madurawe wins 7-5, 6-3
Lord closes it out 6-3, 6-4, and it’s a clean 7-0 sweep in the conference opener!

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - martyup - 03-10-2019

Let this not be today's last Cardinal womens' victory over the Ducks.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - Canalejas - 03-10-2019

Well, the lacrosse team does have a halftime lead against the Ducks.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - martyup - 03-10-2019

(03-10-2019, 02:37 PM)Canalejas Wrote:  Well, the lacrosse team does have a halftime lead against the Ducks.

Ah, a chance for a daily triple against the Ducks.
(03-10-2019, 02:37 PM)Canalejas Wrote:  Well, the lacrosse team does have a halftime lead against the Ducks.

The Cardinal lady lacrosse team downs the Ducks 15-8.  All right now!

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-11-2019

Elsewhere in the conference:

* UCLA beat Arizona State 4-2 and Arizona 4-3, while USC beat ASU 4-3 and Arizona 6-1. I'm shocked by the UCLA-Arizona scoreline. This is not a good Arizona team, and yet it pushed a top 10 team in the country to the limit. A good lesson not to take them lightly. (UCLA won doubles against Arizona and relatively straightforward matches at #1 and #2 singles, lost at #4 through #6, and won a close one at #3 to take the win.) Against UCLA, Arizona State won doubles and #2 singles, and lost tight matches at #1, #3, and #5, with #6 on serve late in the third set. Against USC, Arizona State again won doubles and #2 singles, won #5 singles, and lost tight matches at #1 and #4.  

* Washington beat Colorado 4-1 and Utah 4-3 on the road, while Washington State surprisingly dropped both matches to the mountain schools by 4-3 scores. That's pretty dreadful news for our ranking, since Wazzu should get punished fairly harshly for losing to two relatively poor teams, and Wazzu is still one of our best 5 wins. I still think Colorado just isn't that good and Wazzu presumably had an off day, but Utah is showing signs of being improved. Against UW, they won doubles and #1 and #3 singles (Brianna Chisholm beating UW's Stacey Fung at #1 is a shock), and against WSU, they won doubles and #2, #4, and #5 singles, and Chisholm pushed WSU's Michaela Bayerlova to a third set. 

* Cal beat Oregon 5-2, dropping singles matches on Court 1 (Sangwan beat Rosenqvist in a third-set match tiebreaker with the dual already clinched) and Court 4 (Oregon's Paiton Wagner beat Cal's Maria Smith in a regular tiebreaker in the third set, as they'd started the set when the dual match was clinched). 

Around the country:

* #1 North Carolina beat #3 Duke again, this time by a 4-1 score
* #2 Georgia rolled over #21 Texas A&M, 4-0, and also beat #15 LSU 4-2
* #33 Tennessee also beat LSU, 4-0, so more bad news for our ranking
* #16 Texas beat #17 Florida State, 4-1, which is a bit of good news
Pac-12 Standings

T1. Washington (12-1, 2-0)
T1. USC (10-2, 2-0)
T1. UCLA (9-2, 2-0)
T4. Stanford (8-1, 1-0)
T4. Cal (6-3, 1-0)
T6. Utah (8-3, 1-1)
T6. Colorado (7-7, 1-1)
T8. Washington State (13-4, 0-2)
T8. Arizona (8-5, 0-2)
T8. Oregon (6-7, 0-2)
T8. Arizona State (5-6, 0-2)

***

This coming weekend:

* Cal and Stanford welcome the Arizona schools to town, Arizona at Cal on Friday and Stanford on Saturday, with ASU at Stanford on Friday and at Cal on Saturday

* No conference matches for UCLA and USC, but UCLA plays at Pepperdine on Wednesday, while USC plays Baylor on Saturday night at Indian Wells. 

* The Washington schools host Oregon, and Washington State adds a Wednesday road trip to Fresno State on top of the Ducks. 

* Colorado plays at Colorado State, while Utah travels to Fresno State on Tuesday before its intrastate rivalry match at BYU on Saturday. 

Elsewhere around the country:

UNC is idle, Georgia plays at Florida and South Carolina, Duke hosts Wake Forest and Pitt, and Vanderbilt travels to Texas A&M and LSU.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-11-2019

If the Pac-12 standings shake out like the current rankings do (Stanford 1, UCLA 2, Washington 3, USC 4, Cal 5, etc.) and seedings hold in the Pac-12 tournament, here's a projection of what our best 9 wins would be for the purposes of the final pre-NCAA team rankings if we win out:

#5 Vanderbilt, #6 UCLA (away), #6 UCLA (Pac-12s), #7 Washington, #14 USC (away), #14 USC (Pac-12s), #15 LSU, #16 Texas, and #20 Cal (away), against just the one loss to #2 Georgia.  That's still a great resume, and Texas will climb further as the season will go on (though LSU will also drop, as will some of the Pac-12 teams). So, keep in mind when our ranking starts to drop in the next couple of weeks that it will likely climb back up when it has to for us to be in the top 8 by season's end. As long as the team gets wins, that is. Losing to UCLA isn't brutal in terms of absorbing a loss to a highly-ranked team; it's just that we'd be hoping Washington State is ranked at that point, or else we'd be including a team outside the top 50 in our top 9 wins on the year. (Washington State losing to both Utah and Colorado was very unfortunate.) 

For tomorrow's rankings, however, we've got #5 Vanderbilt, #15 LSU, #16 Texas, #28 Washington State, and an unranked win measured against the loss to Georgia. To compare, Duke has wins over #8 Oklahoma State, #10 Ohio State, #17 Florida State (away), #23 Pepperdine, and #24 Old Dominion, against now two losses to UNC (which counts the same as one loss to the #6 team in the country). They don't count it this way, of course, but it's striking that Duke has nine ranked wins against our four. Sure, we've got the better top win, but goodness, Duke has maybe one "easy" win among its 10, and we've got four among our 8. No question at this point who has had the harder schedule.

Viewed another way, we currently have just one top 10 win, due to Texas dropping a bit. Duke has two. UCLA has two (#8 Oklahoma State and #9 South Carolina). USC has two (#6 UCLA and #9 South Carolina).

That said, Duke's schedule is frontloaded--aside from a good win or two it'll pick up in the ACC tournament, it has just one Top 15 team left on its schedule: #11 N.C. State. Meanwhile, we have three (UCLA, UW, USC), and another who may well be there by the time we play (Cal), on top of whoever we get in the Pac-12 tournament. FYI, Texas has a similar issue. They're currently #16 (best wins are #10 Ohio State, #13 Northwestern, and #17 Florida State), but they've got matches remaining against #8 (away), #12, #23, #30, #31, #34 (away), #37, and #50 (away), and that's before the Big 12 tournament. If they do what they're capable of, they'll be back in the top 10 by season's end, which is good news for us.

RE: Women's Tennis: Santa Clara and Oregon - ColoradoTree - 03-13-2019

And sure enough, Stanford has dropped to #5 in the latest ITA computer rankings, while we remain #3 in the latest USTA/Tennis Channel poll of actual humans who follow college tennis. Vanderbilt, who we beat handily 6-1 a few weeks ago, takes our spot at #4 in the ITA rankings. I know, it's silly. But that's the system, and we knew it was the system when we scheduled as lightly as we did. 

In terms of the Pac-12 and other teams on our schedule, here are those teams:

2. Georgia (L) (steady)
4. Vanderbilt (W) (up 1)
5. Stanford (down 1)
6. UCLA (steady)
8. Texas (W) (up 8)
9. Washington (down 2)
14. Cal (up 6)
17. USC (down 3)
19. LSU (W) (down 4)
36. Washington State (W) (down 8)
45. Princeton (W) (up from NR)

Next week, when they start counting 6 wins for the first time, our resume will be wins over #4, #8, #19, #36, #45, and an unranked win against the one loss to #2.  By contrast, Vanderbilt's will be wins over #9, #14, #18, #30, and #39 with three losses, to #1, #2, and #5, with the sixth win potentially coming this weekend on the road over either #29 Texas A&M or #19 LSU.