Did You Know? - Printable Version

Did You Know? - Printable Version

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Did You Know? - OutsiderFan - 03-08-2019

Johnny Dawkins was fired after a season his team went 15-15 (8-10)?

This is the exact record Jerod Haase produced in his third season as head coach?

RE: Did You Know? - 2006alum - 03-08-2019

I think the difference is that that was year 8 of the Dawkins experiment. If that's all you can produce 8 years in, you gotta go. That's nearly two full recruiting cycles.

And I'm no apologist for Haase: I've said along he should get five seasons so that by season 5 it's all his recruits. If season 5 is anything like 15-15 (8-10), yeah, he should go too. The problem with the past few seasons is that we haven't had good, healthy starters. Dawkins left a bare cupboard and I think Haase has recruited the best players Stanford has seen since the end of the Monty years. Now it's a question of keeping them healthy (and not leaving for the NBA). Every team deals with injuries, so that alone is no excuse, but we have yet to see a starting lineup of Haase players play together consistently. Next season will be very telling, and year 4 of the Haase experiment. Flameouts like last night definitely decrease my faith in Haase, but I think anything less than 5 seasons wouldn't be giving him a fair shake, barring an extremely dire performance (say, 2-16 in conference).

RE: Did You Know? - Phogge - 03-08-2019

The players make dumb mistakes. That shouldn’t be happening so often at the end of the season. I think that the talent is overrated, the coach is in over his head and that men’s hoops has been de-emphasized through Athletic Director neglect and probably by Admissions since the glory years. Dawkins should never have been allowed 8 years. Why would a hotshot young coach want to come to Stanford with all the hurdles in his path?

RE: Did You Know? - 76lsjumb - 03-08-2019

(03-08-2019, 04:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Johnny Dawkins was fired after a season his team went 15-15 (8-10)?

This is the exact record Jerod Haase produced in his third season as head coach?

I believe Dawkins has defeated more Top-20 teams in the past week than Haase has defeated in the past three years...

RE: Did You Know? - BostonCard - 03-08-2019

(03-08-2019, 01:08 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:
(03-08-2019, 04:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Johnny Dawkins was fired after a season his team went 15-15 (8-10)?

This is the exact record Jerod Haase produced in his third season as head coach?

I believe Dawkins has defeated more Top-20 teams in the past week than Haase has defeated in the past three years...

... or that Dawkins himself defeated while at Stanford for 8 years (does anyone have that number?)

BC

RE: Did You Know? - 2006alum - 03-08-2019

If you go by ranking at the time we played them, we beat #17 Washington in 2010-11, #10 Oregon in 2012-13, #17 Oregon and #10 Kansas (minus Embiid) in 2013-14, #9 Texas in 2014-15, and #11 Oregon in 2015-16. So that's 6 top 20 wins in 8 seasons. (And both the Washington and Texas teams we beat and two of the three Oregon teams we beat ended the season unranked, so in the end none of these wins was that great of a win other than the Kansas win in the Tournament and the win over the 2015-16 Ducks, who went on to the Final Four.)

Haase has a win over #16 Arizona State in 2017-18 aaaaaaand.... that's it.

Wow. We've really sucked for basically a decade.

Interestingly, prior to this week Dawkins had had one top 20 win in three seasons with UCF - over #15 Cincinnati in 2016-17. So in a week he's tripled his signature wins.

RE: Did You Know? - CTcard - 03-08-2019

(03-08-2019, 01:08 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: I believe Dawkins has defeated more Top-20 teams in the past week than Haase has defeated in the past three years...

I know that after a terrible loss is a bad time for this conversation, but perhaps to plant a seed for later …

As far as I know Dawkins was generally liked at Stanford and did fine with all the off-the-court issues that are very important at Stanford. He was fired for simply not winning enough. He then goes to a program that has no great history of winning at basketball, had been a frequent occupant of the cellar regions of a good but not power-5 basketball conference, and now we are talking about how well he is doing there.

So, why exactly has Dawkins succeeded at UCF when he could not at Stanford?

Is Dawkins really simply a poor basketball coach but that doesn't matter at UCF?
Did he not "get" Stanford, but is better suited to the environment at UCF?
Is the environment so different from early 2000s that Stanford can no longer do well in mens basketball?
Is the environment so different from football that Stanford cannot succeed at the same level in basketball?
Are our expectations just mixed up?

Or, is it all mostly random, and Dawkins has rolled the dice better at UCF than Stanford?
Or, similarly, it is all mostly random and this season at UCF is just his 2014 season at Stanford (Sweet Sixteen)?

RE: Did You Know? - 2006alum - 03-08-2019

These are good questions CT, and I don't have answers for all of them. But I will say that until this week, in three seasons at UCF he had the exact same number of top 20 wins that he had three seasons into his time at Stanford, so I'm seeing mostly noise and little signal. If Dawkins can regularly keep UCF in the Top 25, then that will say something.

RE: Did You Know? - Spiny_Norman - 03-08-2019

Jerod Haase was a winner in much the same way as Johnny Dawkins. Took a program that was in the doldrums to the NCAAs in his 3rd year and then 28 wins and a regular season conference title in his 4th. Maybe there is something about Stanford or the conference in general that makes it tough to be a winner.

I would really be interested to hear Johnny Dawkins reflect on his time at Stanford and offer his perspective on why the team was not successful over the years. We can speculate, but it would be of value to get a view from someone on the inside.

RE: Did You Know? - SamuelMcF - 03-08-2019

A couple notable things about this year's UCF team, and UCF basketball as a whole (and how this compares with Stanford):

- This year's starting 5 consists of 2 seniors, 2 juniors, and a sophomore.
---> Stanford has 1 senior, 3 sophomores, and a freshman (Sharma, Da Silva, KZ, Davis, Wills/Ryan).

- 3 of the starting 5 are transfers from other schools. 5 of the top 9 are transfers.
- 2 of Dawkins' 4 2019 commits are transfers, 1 from JuCo who can play right away and 1 from TCU who will sit a year (I think).
- Another transfer from South Carolina is sitting this year.
---> UCF, a mid-major team in sunny Florida, can clearly attract plenty of transfer talent. Older guys with college PT under their belts. That's helping Dawkins big time.
---> I don't see a transfer into the Stanford program happening. I doubt it was an option for Dawkins when he was here, nor for Haase now.

- 9 players playing meaningful minutes (10+mpg): 4 seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores.
---> 9 players playing meaningful minutes for Stanford: 1 senior, 1 junior, 4 sophomores, 3 freshmen.
---> For the sake of easier comparison (9 vs 9), I included Isaac White as "meaningful" at 8.8mpg.
---> Next year's top 9 for Stanford, assuming Sheffield transfers and KZ declares for the draft, will be: Davis, Da Silva, Ryan, Wills, Terry, Delaire, Kisunas, Fitzmorris, and White. (I also assume Haase doesn't want to play Pugh and Stanback for whatever reason.) That's 3 juniors, 4/5 sophomores, and 1/2 freshmen, depending how you classify redshirting Fitzmorris. And unless we pull a Delaire again, there will be 2 open scholarships provided those departures do happen...

RE: Did You Know? - BostonCard - 03-10-2019

I wonder how Haase would do with a 7’6” center.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tacko-fall-is-7-foot-6-and-hes-breaking-basketball/

If Dawkins can do next year what he is doing this year, then a good argument can be made that he didn’t just luck into a good situation.

BC

RE: Did You Know? - 2006alum - 03-10-2019

Indeed. And Dawkins didn't recruit him, and I doubt he would have been admissible at Stanford, so, as I've said a million times before, and will say a million times again, coaching at Stanford has unique constraints, and you can't just compare Stanford to "program X" as evidence for why our coaches are comparatively worse. I think it's fair to evaluate whether they develop players well once they're here, but comparisons to other programs will always be apples to oranges. And speaking of player development, I do think Haase has done a nice job with Sharma. He was basically a tall pole his freshman season, and he's transformed into having the 8th best shooting percentage in the country.

...And BTW, guess who is first? The 7'6" giant at UCF...

RE: Did You Know? - winflop - 03-11-2019

(03-08-2019, 04:32 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote: A couple notable things about this year's UCF team, and UCF basketball as a whole (and how this compares with Stanford):

- This year's starting 5 consists of 2 seniors, 2 juniors, and a sophomore.
---> Stanford has 1 senior, 3 sophomores, and a freshman (Sharma, Da Silva, KZ, Davis, Wills/Ryan).

- 3 of the starting 5 are transfers from other schools. 5 of the top 9 are transfers.
- 2 of Dawkins' 4 2019 commits are transfers, 1 from JuCo who can play right away and 1 from TCU who will sit a year (I think).
- Another transfer from South Carolina is sitting this year.
---> UCF, a mid-major team in sunny Florida, can clearly attract plenty of transfer talent. Older guys with college PT under their belts. That's helping Dawkins big time.
---> I don't see a transfer into the Stanford program happening. I doubt it was an option for Dawkins when he was here, nor for Haase now.

- 9 players playing meaningful minutes (10+mpg): 4 seniors, 3 juniors, 2 sophomores.
---> 9 players playing meaningful minutes for Stanford: 1 senior, 1 junior, 4 sophomores, 3 freshmen.
---> For the sake of easier comparison (9 vs 9), I included Isaac White as "meaningful" at 8.8mpg.
---> Next year's top 9 for Stanford, assuming Sheffield transfers and KZ declares for the draft, will be: Davis, Da Silva, Ryan, Wills, Terry, Delaire, Kisunas, Fitzmorris, and White. (I also assume Haase doesn't want to play Pugh and Stanback for whatever reason.) That's 3 juniors, 4/5 sophomores, and 1/2 freshmen, depending how you classify redshirting Fitzmorris. And unless we pull a Delaire again, there will be 2 open scholarships provided those departures do happen...

Yep. Dawkins can recruit much differently at UCF than he could at Stanford. I think he was a poor fit for Stanford. The bigger question I have is who is a good fit? What (different) skills do you need to have?

The problem I have is that I'm not sure Muir knows, and he's supposed to be a basketball guy.

RE: Did You Know? - BostonCard - 03-11-2019

(03-11-2019, 06:57 AM)winflop Wrote: Yep. Dawkins can recruit much differently at UCF than he could at Stanford. I think he was a poor fit for Stanford. The bigger question I have is who is a good fit? What (different) skills do you need to have?

The problem I have is that I'm not sure Muir knows, and he's supposed to be a basketball guy.

But also Tacko Fall was not a Dawkins recruit.

BC

RE: Did You Know? - 76lsjumb - 03-11-2019

Help me out here. Is the fact that Dawkins didn't recruit Tacko Fall a knock on Dawkins -- e.g., sure he did a whole lot better than Haase this season, but that's because he had a player that Haase wouldn't have been able to recruit and, hey, he wasn't even the guy who brought him in? Or, conversely, is it evidence of why, in fact, Dawkins is better than Haase -- as in, look what Dawkins was able to do this season even though he wasn't playing with "his guys"? After all, not yet having "his guys" seems to be the most common excuse for Haase on this Board.

RE: Did You Know? - SamuelMcF - 03-11-2019

(03-11-2019, 12:03 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: Help me out here. Is the fact that Dawkins didn't recruit Tacko Fall a knock on Dawkins -- e.g., sure he did a whole lot better than Haase this season, but that's because he had a player that Haase wouldn't have been able to recruit and, hey, he wasn't even the guy who brought him in? Or, conversely, is it evidence of why, in fact, Dawkins is better than Haase -- as in, look what Dawkins was able to do this season even though he wasn't playing with "his guys"? After all, not yet having "his guys" seems to be the most common excuse for Haase on this Board.

To me it feels like more of the first one - we can't tell if Dawkins is better YET because his 2 top scorers were recruited by his predecessor, and after Tacko Fall graduates we'll get a better sense of the answer. But it seems like he's developed Fall well, and his predecessor's recruits have fit his system.

RE: Did You Know? - 2006alum - 03-11-2019

I don't think it's a question of "his guys" as much as whether the guys he has are any good. It's telling that our five players who got the most minutes this season are ALL sophomores and freshmen - even with Sharma's excellent season he's still the sixth most utilized due to foul issues (and all 5 have sat out 1-7 games with injuries). Go farther down our roster and you'll note that 8 of the top 10 most utilized are underclassmen. And only two players have seen action in every game this season. That tells you everything you need to know about what Haase thinks of what he inherited.

And for all our handwringing about Dawkins, it's notable that (a) UCF lost this weekend to Temple and fell out of the top 25; (b) Fall was limited to 4 points due to foul troubles; and © Dawkins' son put up 37 points for UCF. I assume he was not admissible at Stanford because he went to Michigan instead of Stanford while Dawkins was the coach at Stanford but then immediately transferred to UCF when Dawkins moved. That suggests to me yet another player that Dawkins has and can develop that would never get to the Farm.

So again, my challenge is: tell me what players Haase is failing to recruit that we should have been able to get, and tell me how many schools that don't get one and dones can dominate with lineups that are almost entirely underclassmen? Look at the kind of season multiple COY Jay Wright is having with Villanova after losing all his starters and upperclassmen last season: bumpy. And he's one of the best coaches in the country in a program that has an esteemed history and no major recruiting barriers.

Otherwise, let's focus on what Haase can control: player development, coaching strategy, and mid-game adjustments. I think he's doing a pretty solid job of the first two (the growth of Okpala, Sharma, and da Silva, in particular, has been very encouraging). I definitely like the way he operates our offense vis-a-vis Dawkins, although player execution of that offense has been very hit or miss. My biggest frustrations have been some of our terrible choices down the stretch in close games. That was a flaw Dawkins had too, and that, more than anything else, is what is worrying me about Haase's long-term future on the Farm. The rest, to me, is just noise.

RE: Did You Know? - BostonCard - 03-11-2019

(03-11-2019, 12:03 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: Help me out here. Is the fact that Dawkins didn't recruit Tacko Fall a knock on Dawkins -- e.g., sure he did a whole lot better than Haase this season, but that's because he had a player that Haase wouldn't have been able to recruit and, hey, he wasn't even the guy who brought him in? Or, conversely, is it evidence of why, in fact, Dawkins is better than Haase -- as in, look what Dawkins was able to do this season even though he wasn't playing with "his guys"? After all, not yet having "his guys" seems to be the most common excuse for Haase on this Board.

Broadly speaking, there are three factors (under his control) that go into his success:
1) recruiting ability
2) player development
3) gameday coaching

So, if we are going to assess Dawkins' success, he should get credit for #2, especially since Fall was a "late bloomer" who didn't start playing basketball until he was in his teens. I don't think there is enough info to determine #1, at least at UCF (you can reasonably say he didn't do well in #1 at Stanford). If after Tacko Fall leaves UCF, Dawkins is able to continue his success, then that speaks well to Dawkins' coaching ability. But if he doesn't; that his success was completely due to the fact that the guy before him recruited a player who "broke college basketball", then maybe Dawkins was more lucky than good.

BC

RE: Did You Know? - cardcrimson - 03-11-2019

(03-08-2019, 04:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Johnny Dawkins was fired after a season his team went 15-15 (8-10)?

This is the exact record Jerod Haase produced in his third season as head coach?

Okay. I don't follow basketball all that closely anymore. Over the last couple of generations or so, how many coaches at Stanford have "gotten it" and been a good mix for the academics and the hoops. I can think of one, perhaps two: Monte and Dr Tom.

We have three choices. Stick with what we have, bring back Montgomery, or find a hungry hoops version of Harbaugh.

RE: Did You Know? - Mick - 03-12-2019

(03-11-2019, 08:21 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(03-08-2019, 04:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Johnny Dawkins was fired after a season his team went 15-15 (8-10)?

This is the exact record Jerod Haase produced in his third season as head coach?

Okay. I don't follow basketball all that closely anymore. Over the last couple of generations or so, how many coaches at Stanford have "gotten it" and been a good mix for the academics and the hoops. I can think of one, perhaps two: Monte and Dr Tom.

We have three choices. Stick with what we have, bring back Montgomery, or find a hungry hoops version of Harbaugh.

I know how I'd vote...

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/coaches/mike-montgomery-1.html