A few observations - Printable Version

A few observations - Printable Version

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A few observations - ljw63 - 09-23-2019

It has been about a year since I last posted. However,, I read the Forum daily. I am a little surprised no one has commented lately on the way we give away our plays by our formation. I tried to count the number of times we passed when the QB was under center against Oregon. I may have missed a play or two but by my count we played from under center 16 times and ran 15 times. From the spread formation, including the wildcat, we passed about 60-70% of the time. It is no wonder the defense is ready for us. If I can see this I am sure the DCs see this.

The second thing that struck me is how slow Costello's feet are. Some QBs are very nimble – he is not. It has always been apparent he has a slow release but I had not noticed before how slow he is in moving his feet. I am sure there have been some very successful QBs with the same problem but they probably had much better protection. I realize that Mills has not yet shown much yet but I think he deserves another game.

The third observation is that our receivers do not know how to create space from their defenders, including Parkinson. Wilson does the best at creating space and Wedington is fairly good but it seems when he gets wide open he drops the ball. I never played wide receiver so perhaps this is something that comes with experience although I think the St. Brown at USC was very good at it as a freshman last year

RE: A few observations - cctop - 09-23-2019

(09-23-2019, 08:37 PM)ljw63 Wrote: I am a little surprised no one has commented lately on the way we give away our plays by our formation.

I've been meaning to post on this topic.

This year I attended the USC game in the Coliseum, where I sat next to a fascinating 85-year-old USC fan. He had been recruited by Chuck Taylor to play football for Stanford, but his mother wouldn't let him go so instead he went to Claremont.

When Stanford was on offense he called out who we were subbing into the game, and based on that he predicted whether the play was going to be a run or a pass with maybe 80% success rate.

I don't know enough about football to say whether that's significant. Maybe the 20% where we didn't do the obvious thing are where the big plays happen. Maybe lots of teams rely on a small set of simple plays executed well (looking at you, Oregon, with the read option). In any event I don't think misdirection has ever been a big part Shaw's offense, especially in our successful years where our O-line was dominant.

RE: A few observations - BostonCard - 09-24-2019

[Image: fumblefake.0.gif]

When you are executing well, it becomes easier to run trick plays. The defense is on its heels. They sell out to try to stop the offense, and thus they are more susceptible to trick plays, like the fake fumble above against Iowa.

Conversely, when the offense is not executing well, trick plays are generally not going to be effective. For one thing, they require a higher degree of execution (for example, they often take longer to develop, so the offensive line has to hold its blocks longer). Moreover, the defense isn’t selling our or overpursuing because they don’t have to. So they are going to be less susceptible to biting on the fake. Consider a play action pass against a team that is easily defending the run. The safety doesn’t have to cheat into the box because the DL or linebackers are stopping the run well. The DL is able to put pressure on the QB because the OL isn’t blocking well. The next result is that nobody bites on the play fake and the WR streaming down the field is well covered with safety help.

We need to show we can run our base offense effectively. Then we can start getting cute.

BC

RE: A few observations - Phogge - 09-24-2019

The base offense doesn’t have Ward, Marx or Marecic taking on an unblocked lineman or ILB and that’s only one of the problems. I agree that the formations are predictable and DC’s generally aren’t stupid. The TE runs poor routes. Just ISO him sometime. And Fehoko has alligator arms. Plus JJand Irwin bailed out the QB many times. Time to sign a dual guy and get with the times.

RE: A few observations - winflop - 09-24-2019

Oregon schemed to cover Parkinson with a DB most of the time with safety help. It worked. He wasn't open, but when that happens it usually means that the WRs are getting single coverage with less safety help. And yet other than Wilson (a few times) they couldn't get separation. Is this a talent issue or a scheme issue? Maybe some of both? I don't know other than it's not working.

I do think the OL played well on Saturday. KJ got some pressure in the second half, but that's when we had to throw more often due to being down 18 and Oregon could pin their ears back. I wish they'd run more quick-hitting run plays. The slow-developing ones don't seem to work as well, especially against speed defenses like Oregon's who can react and respond. Would also like to see some play action off those quick hitters. I don't recall more than a couple all day.

RE: A few observations - gailtate - 09-24-2019

Here's another observation, re yours on Costello's mobility/release. It's instructive to compare his performance(s) two years ago to today. Q: What does he have common with his predecessors Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst? A: Each regressed on Shaw's watch.

RE: A few observations - JeffInCorvallis - 09-24-2019

(09-24-2019, 08:29 AM)gailtate Wrote: Here's another observation, re yours on Costello's mobility/release. It's instructive to compare his performance(s) two years ago to today. Q: What does he have common with his predecessors Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst? A: Each regressed on Shaw's watch.

I don't know if regressed is the right term but there is a troubling pattern with quarterbacks. After Andrew Luck's graduation there was an experiment with Josh Nunes before moving on to Kevin Hogan who, while not putting up pinball game numbers, was arguably one of the most successful QB's in Stanford history. Since then we've stocked the pipeline with 4-star recruits: Ryan Burns, Keller Chryst, KJ Costello, and Davis Mills. The jury is still out on Mills, obviously, and KJ had a pretty good year last year and may not have been 100% healthy thus far in 2019. The other guys never realized their full potential, made all the more frustrating by watching USC plug in their second and third string guys with instant results. Is it the scheme, the player development, the O line, or something else?

RE: A few observations - BostonCard - 09-24-2019

(09-24-2019, 08:29 AM)gailtate Wrote: Here's another observation, re yours on Costello's mobility/release. It's instructive to compare his performance(s) two years ago to today. Q: What does he have common with his predecessors Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst? A: Each regressed on Shaw's watch.

Burns played less than a season. In high school he played in a system where he almost never threw the ball? How can you say he “regressed”? Chryst was about as mediocre his second year starting as he was his first. He was injured and got surpassed by Costello. And it’s not like Chryst flourished when he was done with Shaw; he was pretty much a bench guy at Tennessee too. Costello improves dramatically from two years ago to last year. Did Shaw step out and get replaced by someone who improves QB’s? He’s played two and a half games so far this year. He has been worse than last year. Is it lingering injury? Loss of receivers? Has he legitimately regressed? Is it small sample size? Not sure.

And who was responsible for Hogan?

BC