Our QB Issues - Printable Version

Our QB Issues - Printable Version

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Our QB Issues - thunder_chik - 09-24-2019

There’s been a lot of chatter about (lack of) quarterback development on this board. I have to agree that it seems as though our QBs have not progressed as much as we, the fans, have expected. Obviously, Luck was an exceptional talent, probably didn’t need much coaching (probably made the OC’s job way easy). However, his success may have set us up for some unrealistic expectations.
In the 8 seasons since Luck left, as near as I can gather, we’ve carried 15 different QBs on our roster (in roughly descending seniority order, not per depth chart):
2012: Picazo, Nunes, Nottingham, Olson, Hogan, Crower, Brzeczek
2013: Olson, Hogan, Crower, Burns, Lloyd
2014: Hogan, Crower, Burns, Chryst
2015: Hogan, Burns, Chryst
2016: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Peus
2017: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Mills
2018: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
2019: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
Hogan, of course, was outstanding.
Just to recap: Brzeczek was not on scholarship and transferred to Montana after his first season; Nottingham left for Columbia after the 2012 season, when Hogan won the starting job; Olson finished out at Clemson; Chryst went to Tennessee. Nunes took a medical retirement after a weightlifting injury. Peus, ’20, played one season. Lloyd was converted to Safety.
I haven’t seen Richardson, West or Plautz play, so I can’t comment on their capabilities.
Of the remaining 4 (Crower, Burns, Costello, Mills), do we really have a standout? Costello had a decent year in ’18, but so far this season, due to injuries, lack of OL protection or whatever, he just has not impressed. Mills is still a question mark. It seems to me that among 15 candidates over 8 years, we would have developed more than one or two really good QBs (2 of 15=13 per cent success rate). Whether this is due to deficiencies in recruiting, coaching, injuries or just bad luck (or a combination if factors), I don’t know. Maybe this is the mean for most programs. Or maybe I’m just expecting too much.

RE: Our QB Issues - yvonne - 09-24-2019

Quarterback is such a weird position. It's essential, but I think there's a bit of luck involved. Take this story about the weirdness that happened at Clemson a year ago. The year before, Alabama had its own issues, which eventually ended up bringing on Tua Tagovailoa.

In our own recent memory, the two top quarterbacks stunk up the joint in real games, and although the coaching staff knew what they had in Kevin Hogan, they wanted to bring him on slowly, so they waited to play one of the worst teams on the schedule. Even the Genius had QB issues after Steve Stenstrom graduated. Walsh didn't seem to get much production from (Steve?) Carey or Scott Frost, who eventually transferred. And let's not forget that he slammed his fist on the desk when the 49er brass passed on Steve Dils.

RE: Our QB Issues - thunder_chik - 09-24-2019

Serendipity is a factor, no question. But, I would like to believe that, with all the resources we have available, Stanford would be at least 25% efficient at picking/developing above average QBs.

RE: Our QB Issues - murky - 09-25-2019

(09-24-2019, 06:59 PM)thunder_chik Wrote: There’s been a lot of chatter about (lack of) quarterback development on this board. I have to agree that it seems as though our QBs have not progressed as much as we, the fans, have expected. Obviously, Luck was an exceptional talent, probably didn’t need much coaching (probably made the OC’s job way easy). However, his success may have set us up for some unrealistic expectations.
In the 8 seasons since Luck left, as near as I can gather, we’ve carried 15 different QBs on our roster (in roughly descending seniority order, not per depth chart):
2012: Picazo, Nunes, Nottingham, Olson, Hogan, Crower, Brzeczek
2013: Olson, Hogan, Crower, Burns, Lloyd
2014: Hogan, Crower, Burns, Chryst
2015: Hogan, Burns, Chryst
2016: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Peus
2017: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Mills
2018: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
2019: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
Hogan, of course, was outstanding.
Just to recap: Brzeczek was not on scholarship and transferred to Montana after his first season; Nottingham left for Columbia after the 2012 season, when Hogan won the starting job; Olson finished out at Clemson; Chryst went to Tennessee. Nunes took a medical retirement after a weightlifting injury. Peus, ’20, played one season. Lloyd was converted to Safety.
I haven’t seen Richardson, West or Plautz play, so I can’t comment on their capabilities.
Of the remaining 4 (Crower, Burns, Costello, Mills), do we really have a standout? Costello had a decent year in ’18, but so far this season, due to injuries, lack of OL protection or whatever, he just has not impressed. Mills is still a question mark. It seems to me that among 15 candidates over 8 years, we would have developed more than one or two really good QBs (2 of 15=13 per cent success rate). Whether this is due to deficiencies in recruiting, coaching, injuries or just bad luck (or a combination if factors), I don’t know. Maybe this is the mean for most programs. Or maybe I’m just expecting too much.

Last year Costello was a top 3 QB in the Pac 12 with considerable eligibility remaining. Of course I'd like to always have the consensus #1, but if we were to be top 3 year in and year out, that's would not be our weakness.

RE: Our QB Issues - gailtate - 09-26-2019

(09-25-2019, 10:57 AM)murky Wrote:
(09-24-2019, 06:59 PM)thunder_chik Wrote: There’s been a lot of chatter about (lack of) quarterback development on this board. I have to agree that it seems as though our QBs have not progressed as much as we, the fans, have expected. Obviously, Luck was an exceptional talent, probably didn’t need much coaching (probably made the OC’s job way easy). However, his success may have set us up for some unrealistic expectations.
In the 8 seasons since Luck left, as near as I can gather, we’ve carried 15 different QBs on our roster (in roughly descending seniority order, not per depth chart):
2012: Picazo, Nunes, Nottingham, Olson, Hogan, Crower, Brzeczek
2013: Olson, Hogan, Crower, Burns, Lloyd
2014: Hogan, Crower, Burns, Chryst
2015: Hogan, Burns, Chryst
2016: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Peus
2017: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Mills
2018: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
2019: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
Hogan, of course, was outstanding.
Just to recap: Brzeczek was not on scholarship and transferred to Montana after his first season; Nottingham left for Columbia after the 2012 season, when Hogan won the starting job; Olson finished out at Clemson; Chryst went to Tennessee. Nunes took a medical retirement after a weightlifting injury. Peus, ’20, played one season. Lloyd was converted to Safety.
I haven’t seen Richardson, West or Plautz play, so I can’t comment on their capabilities.
Of the remaining 4 (Crower, Burns, Costello, Mills), do we really have a standout? Costello had a decent year in ’18, but so far this season, due to injuries, lack of OL protection or whatever, he just has not impressed. Mills is still a question mark. It seems to me that among 15 candidates over 8 years, we would have developed more than one or two really good QBs (2 of 15=13 per cent success rate). Whether this is due to deficiencies in recruiting, coaching, injuries or just bad luck (or a combination if factors), I don’t know. Maybe this is the mean for most programs. Or maybe I’m just expecting too much.

Last year Costello was a top 3 QB in the Pac 12 with considerable eligibility remaining. Of course I'd like to always have the consensus #1, but if we were to be top 3 year in and year out, that's would not be our weakness.

KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

RE: Our QB Issues - cardcrimson - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote:
(09-25-2019, 10:57 AM)murky Wrote:
(09-24-2019, 06:59 PM)thunder_chik Wrote: There’s been a lot of chatter about (lack of) quarterback development on this board. I have to agree that it seems as though our QBs have not progressed as much as we, the fans, have expected. Obviously, Luck was an exceptional talent, probably didn’t need much coaching (probably made the OC’s job way easy). However, his success may have set us up for some unrealistic expectations.
In the 8 seasons since Luck left, as near as I can gather, we’ve carried 15 different QBs on our roster (in roughly descending seniority order, not per depth chart):
2012: Picazo, Nunes, Nottingham, Olson, Hogan, Crower, Brzeczek
2013: Olson, Hogan, Crower, Burns, Lloyd
2014: Hogan, Crower, Burns, Chryst
2015: Hogan, Burns, Chryst
2016: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Peus
2017: Burns, Chryst, Costello, Richardson, Mills
2018: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
2019: Costello, Richardson, Mills, West, Plautz
Hogan, of course, was outstanding.
Just to recap: Brzeczek was not on scholarship and transferred to Montana after his first season; Nottingham left for Columbia after the 2012 season, when Hogan won the starting job; Olson finished out at Clemson; Chryst went to Tennessee. Nunes took a medical retirement after a weightlifting injury. Peus, ’20, played one season. Lloyd was converted to Safety.
I haven’t seen Richardson, West or Plautz play, so I can’t comment on their capabilities.
Of the remaining 4 (Crower, Burns, Costello, Mills), do we really have a standout? Costello had a decent year in ’18, but so far this season, due to injuries, lack of OL protection or whatever, he just has not impressed. Mills is still a question mark. It seems to me that among 15 candidates over 8 years, we would have developed more than one or two really good QBs (2 of 15=13 per cent success rate). Whether this is due to deficiencies in recruiting, coaching, injuries or just bad luck (or a combination if factors), I don’t know. Maybe this is the mean for most programs. Or maybe I’m just expecting too much.

Last year Costello was a top 3 QB in the Pac 12 with considerable eligibility remaining. Of course I'd like to always have the consensus #1, but if we were to be top 3 year in and year out, that's would not be our weakness.

KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

QB recruits are oblivious to this.

They're looking for the 40 year decision. . . .

RE: Our QB Issues - BostonCard - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote: KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

You keep saying that Burns regressed, but there's no evidence of that. He played in an offensive system in high school where he rarely passed the ball. His first two years he had a grand total of 7 pass attempts. In 2016, he started the first 7 games before he was replaced by Chryst. He didn't start again. I guess it would be fair to say that Shaw never developed him, even though he was always viewed as a project, but the evidence that he regressed is just not there, if for no other reason that he did not play enough games to assess his progress over time.

You have a slightly better case that Keller Chryst regressed from 2016, when he took over for Burns, to 2017, when he gave way to Costello. But his stats are pretty similar both years (77/136, 56.6%, 905 yards, 6.7 ypa, 10 TD, 2 INT, PER of 133 in 2016 versus 78/144, 54.2%, 962 yards, 6.7 ypa, 8 TD, 4 INT, PER of 123). When you take into account the fact that his opponents defenses were weaker in 2016, and that he was injured at Sun Bowl and again against UCLA in 2017, it is perhaps not surprising that his output declined.

Also, funny you don't mention the QB before Burns, because that kind of blows your whole theory out of the water.

BC

RE: Our QB Issues - cardcrimson - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 07:50 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote: KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

You keep saying that Burns regressed, but there's no evidence of that. He played in an offensive system in high school where he rarely passed the ball. His first two years he had a grand total of 7 pass attempts. In 2016, he started the first 7 games before he was replaced by Chryst. He didn't start again. I guess it would be fair to say that Shaw never developed him, even though he was always viewed as a project, but the evidence that he regressed is just not there, if for no other reason that he did not play enough games to assess his progress over time.

You have a slightly better case that Keller Chryst regressed from 2016, when he took over for Burns, to 2017, when he gave way to Costello. But his stats are pretty similar both years (77/136, 56.6%, 905 yards, 6.7 ypa, 10 TD, 2 INT, PER of 133 in 2016 versus 78/144, 54.2%, 962 yards, 6.7 ypa, 8 TD, 4 INT, PER of 123). When you take into account the fact that his opponents defenses were weaker in 2016, and that he was injured at Sun Bowl and again against UCLA in 2017, it is perhaps not surprising that his output declined.

Also, funny you don't mention the QB before Burns, because that kind of blows your whole theory out of the water.

BC

Probably a dumb question, but why would we recruit a QB who rarely passed the ball in high school?

RE: Our QB Issues - 82lsju - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 08:21 AM)cardcrimson Wrote: Probably a dumb question, but why would we recruit a QB who rarely passed the ball in high school?

the knock against his HS play

Quote:Much of the criticism of Burns stems from the quarterback's mediocre junior season statistics. Playing in an extremely quarterback-unfriendly single-wing offense, Burns threw 13 touchdowns again 14 interceptions with a sub-50 percent completion percentage.

the article has some more on his recruitment and some of the others "who got away" or maybe got door #1

https://stanford.rivals.com/news/further-look-ryan-burns

from gostanford

Quote:Ryan Burns

• Threw for school-record 2,530 yards (21.1 yards/completion) and 28 touchdowns in 2012
• Completed 116 of 221 passes while rushing for 222 yards and four scores as a senior

and he was "highly acclaimed"

• Five-star recruit by PrepStar, four-star recruit by Rivals, 247Sports and ESPN
• Nation’s 42nd-best overall player by PrepStar, 64th-best by ESPN
• Nation’s third-best pocket quarterback by PrepStar, fourth by ESPN and sixth by Rivals
• Virginia’s fourth-best overall prospect by ESPN, fifth by Rivals
• 2012 PrepStar All-America and Dream Team selection
• 2012 U.S. Army All-America Bowl
• 2012 Washington Post all-Met first team
• 2012 All-Northern Region

https://gostanford.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=11659

RE: Our QB Issues - murky - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 08:21 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(09-26-2019, 07:50 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote: KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

You keep saying that Burns regressed, but there's no evidence of that. He played in an offensive system in high school where he rarely passed the ball. His first two years he had a grand total of 7 pass attempts. In 2016, he started the first 7 games before he was replaced by Chryst. He didn't start again. I guess it would be fair to say that Shaw never developed him, even though he was always viewed as a project, but the evidence that he regressed is just not there, if for no other reason that he did not play enough games to assess his progress over time.

You have a slightly better case that Keller Chryst regressed from 2016, when he took over for Burns, to 2017, when he gave way to Costello. But his stats are pretty similar both years (77/136, 56.6%, 905 yards, 6.7 ypa, 10 TD, 2 INT, PER of 133 in 2016 versus 78/144, 54.2%, 962 yards, 6.7 ypa, 8 TD, 4 INT, PER of 123). When you take into account the fact that his opponents defenses were weaker in 2016, and that he was injured at Sun Bowl and again against UCLA in 2017, it is perhaps not surprising that his output declined.

Also, funny you don't mention the QB before Burns, because that kind of blows your whole theory out of the water.

BC

Probably a dumb question, but why would we recruit a QB who rarely passed the ball in high school?

I'd always wondered the same thing. I was hoping to be pleasantly surprised, but didn't expect Burns to ever be a starter.

RE: Our QB Issues - CardinalSagehen - 09-26-2019

Here’s a crazy scenario. It’s not one that I’m rooting for but one that occurred to me.

KJ’s thumb is actually a bit of a problem. Mills starts on Saturday and the offense goes wild, which, it would be argued, doesn’t prove much given the opposition. Then Mills starts against UW and performs extremely well. KJ grad transfers, essentially becoming our version of Jalen Hurts or Kelly Bryant. After that, if you want to get really crazy, imagine he goes to Oklahoma to become the next Lincoln Riley disciple. (Although he doesn’t fit Riley’s mold, it would seem.)

As a fan, I’d much rather we win on Sat, KJ returns and performs to his abilities, we have a successful 2019, and he goes on to the NFL as a draft pick in the first few rounds. But the other scenario has struck me as semi-plausible, especially if KJ is significantly injured currently or in the next couple games.

When do we know for sure who’s starting on Sat? Tonight after practice?

RE: Our QB Issues - 82lsju - 09-26-2019

(09-26-2019, 02:43 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote: When do we know for sure who’s starting on Sat? Tonight after practice?

we might not know until ~4pm Saturday, I would think that Shaw already knows or should by tonight.

RE: Our QB Issues - Phogge - 09-26-2019

Left in the third Q because of early call time Sunday so heard the last few minutes of radio. Husak things that Costello performs better in an uptempo offense. That fits the OU scheme but he isn't close to having the necessary escapism of Mayfield, Murray and Hurts. I would suspect that Riley has three or four of those guys on the "Transfer Portal" horizon.

RE: Our QB Issues - Spiny_Norman - 09-27-2019

[twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1177637777502023680[/twitter]

RE: Our QB Issues - cardcrimson - 09-27-2019

(09-27-2019, 10:56 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: [twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1177637777502023680[/twitter]

Then why on earth didn't he come out in the Oregon game? Even the TV commentators mentioned his injury was clearly affecting his ability to throw.

Wish him a speedy recovery and Mills a successful start. . . .

rich_matta2@yahoo.com - CardinalSagehen - 09-27-2019

(09-27-2019, 11:00 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(09-27-2019, 10:56 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: [twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1177637777502023680[/twitter]

Then why on earth didn't he come out in the Oregon game? Even the TV commentators mentioned his injury was clearly affecting his ability to throw.

Wish him a speedy recovery and Mills a successful start. . . .

I agree, he was hurting the team on Sat. I heard that Shaw tried to say that Costello was off-the-mark on just two passes. I admire having your guy's back, especially when he pushed himself to play hurt, but he was way off the mark on a number of passes.

Now the question is which band of 18 year-olds will be protecting Mills on Saturday and making holes for Scarlett. Looks like Hamilton has been fully ruled out - not a surprise. I didn't hear about Sarell, but optimistically let's hope he's in (but shaky). Our OL will be 40-60% manned by true freshman on Saturday - Rouse, Miller and possibly Hornibrook. Oof.

Excited to see Mills again, though. There can be a big jump from a first start to a second start. And hoping KJ gets better soon.

RE: Our QB Issues - CowboyIndian - 09-27-2019

(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote: KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

Perhaps as oblivious as someone who doesn't take note of the fact that KJ has been injured since Q2 of the opener.

RE: Our QB Issues - SamuelMcF - 09-27-2019

(09-27-2019, 12:48 PM)CowboyIndian Wrote:
(09-26-2019, 07:38 AM)gailtate Wrote: KJ is the THIRD consecutive QB to have regressed on Shaw-vita's watch, preceded by Ryan Burns and K. Chryst. I say this is a trend. You can't tell me that QB recruits are oblivious to this.

Perhaps as oblivious as someone who doesn't take note of the fact that KJ has been injured since Q2 of the opener.

Also, re Burns and Chryst, it's hard to "regress" when you aren't very good in the first place.

RE: Our QB Issues - winflop - 09-27-2019

(09-27-2019, 10:56 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: [twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1177637777502023680[/twitter]

Two quarters later than it should have happened. It was apparent by halftime that Costello couldn't push the ball downfield with any kind of accuracy, and that third quarter INT was a total duck.

Stock down on ShawVita

RE: Our QB Issues - newguy - 09-27-2019

(09-27-2019, 10:56 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: [twitter]https://twitter.com/StanfordFball/status/1177637777502023680[/twitter]

all i can say is.........BAHHHHH.