Outside Topic OT. Niners/ Shanahan

Outside Topic OT. Niners/ Shanahan - Printable Version

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OT. Niners/ Shanahan - lex24 - 11-11-2019

I think he’s a terrific young coach. But he screwed the pooch tonight. You have the ball on your own 20 yard line with a minute 40 to go the other team has no timeouts and you are playing the team with whom you have a two game divisional lead you simply take the tie. Particularly when your offensive line has been getting the crap kicked out of it all game your quarterbacks already fumbled for a TD and thrown up about five balls that should’ve been picked up off (Garrapalo was not good. Skittish in the pocket all game) your best offensive weapons are out and those that are playing have already dropped the ball numerous times. Then yeah the fact that they have Russell Wilson and you don’t.

A tie for the 49ers would’ve been as good as a win.

By the way – I can’t recall watching a football game when a tackle got beaten worse than Joe Staley was beaten today by Clowney.

Painful - freaking Seattle always wins these games. Second time this year they won because the other team couldn’t kick the game-winning field goal. Makes me want to puke I freaking can’t stand Pete Carroll.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-11-2019

You are right in terms of the math, but coaching is a hard business. With all the decisions coaches have to make in a season, some are inevitably going to be sub-optimal.

BC

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - SamuelMcF - 11-11-2019

Agreed. Completely mismanaged the end of the game. Shanny was having Super Bowl flashbacks.

With 1:40 left, you run on 1st, pass on 2nd. If you convert the 1st with ~1 minute left, keep going. If not, just run it again and punt with 20 seconds left to guarantee the tie.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-11-2019

Agree completely. It’s awfully easy to do sitting on your butt screaming at the television set. Little harder in real time. And nobody likes it when somebody goes for the tie. Still it was the right play here. And I will say this – I said it before they started throwing the ball

(11-11-2019, 10:29 PM)BostonCard Wrote: You are right in terms of the math, but coaching is a hard business. With all the decisions coaches have to make in a season, some are inevitably going to be sub-optimal.

BC

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - Phogge - 11-12-2019

Hey Lex were you on the sidelines for WSU 2006? The Coug DE had six sacks but I can’t remember the name of the Stanford turnstile.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 12:39 AM)Phogge Wrote: Hey Lex were you on the sidelines for WSU 2006? The Coug DE had six sacks but I can’t remember the name of the Stanford turnstile.

Are you thinking of Allen Smith?

https://gostanford.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=5840

Quote:2006 (JUNIOR): Started all 12 games at left tackle

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-12-2019

By the way, reading this recap put me in a cold sweat...

https://www.espn.com/college-football/recap?gameId=262660024

Quote:This game was never in doubt. By the time Stanford ran its first
play in Cougars territory, the score was already 22-0 early in the
third quarter...

It was so bad for the Cardinal that they punted on third down on their first
drive and Edwards tripped in the end zone for a safety on the first
play of their second drive.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - OutsiderFan - 11-12-2019

Thoughts during game:
- Put Skule and Brunskill in for second half to see if they can do batter than Staley and McGlinchey
- Why does this team suffer so many injuries?
- This defense is really good and young
- That was a First Down on 3rd and 2; absolutely atrocious spot, even after review missed by a half yard
- OK, let’s run on first down, get 5 + and see if we can pass to victory, if not embrace tie

* I have heard Shanahan say the priority is to win the division. Well, if you take a tie, you have a 2 game lead. If you give them another crack and they win, your lead is down to 1. This is the first time I have ever questioned Shanahan’s judgment. There are times when you would make different decisions if your call, but realize there is no right answer. Passing on first down and refusing to take tie was objectively wrong.

- Team came from 11 down to tie game and forced OT
- Team was missing it’s best two receivers
- Team already overcame Seattle in RZ in OT once
- Seattle had no timeouts
- A tie preserves 2-game lead you paid such a high cost to have in terms of roster attrition

Nobody can ever accuse Kyle Shanahan of laying up or refusing to compete. But sometimes you have to know when to fight your battles.

lex24 - lex24 - 11-12-2019

No, started in 08. Ended ‘16

(11-12-2019, 12:39 AM)Phogge Wrote: Hey Lex were you on the sidelines for WSU 2006? The Coug DE had six sacks but I can’t remember the name of the Stanford turnstile.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - teejers1 - 11-12-2019

(11-11-2019, 10:17 PM)lex24 Wrote: I think he’s a terrific young coach. But he screwed the pooch tonight. You have the ball on your own 20 yard line with a minute 40 to go the other team has no timeouts and you are playing the team with whom you have a two game divisional lead you simply take the tie. Particularly when your offensive line has been getting the crap kicked out of it all game your quarterbacks already fumbled for a TD and thrown up about five balls that should’ve been picked up off (Garrapalo was not good. Skittish in the pocket all game) your best offensive weapons are out and those that are playing have already dropped the ball numerous times. Then yeah the fact that they have Russell Wilson and you don’t.

A tie for the 49ers would’ve been as good as a win.

Lex, agree 100%. And unlike BC, I am not so forgiving. It's the freaking coach's #1 job not to eff up obvious, critical decisions.

But here's what made Shanahan's decision last night even worse than everything/almost everything (?) we've seen over the years from you-know-who: Shanahan had 3 chances to make the right decision and run (at least) 35 seconds off the clock. And he screwed it up 3 times in a row! Hell, at third and 10, when the chances of getting a first down on that series had decreased significantly, I still would have called for a run to burn clock. (Though obviously, the preferred approach is to run on first or second down - or both).

This could be a season-changing screw-up by Shanahan, as the schedule is brutal. And btw, it's not the first time he has shown game-losing decision-making with the 'Niners. There was a game last year (I believe), when the 'Niners had the lead and the ball late in Q4 and instead of burning clock, he does the same thing by passing and then punting, giving the opponent an opportunity to win it never should have had in the first place.

Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

When every single coach at all levels of football, including those who have won multiple Super Bowls (I recently pointed out a decision to punt from midfield by Bill Belicheck) occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions, maybe it's time to reassess how we view coaching decisions. I would hate to put all of my critical decisions on camera, to be nitpicked on message boards by snarky people who think they know more about my job than I do. Of course, maybe if I made $7 million a year, I would happily ignore those message boards, and what is football without snarky message boards poring over every decision.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - OutsiderFan - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

When every single coach at all levels of football, including those who have won multiple Super Bowls (I recently pointed out a decision to punt from midfield by Bill Belicheck) occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions, maybe it's time to reassess how we view coaching decisions. I would hate to put all of my critical decisions on camera, to be nitpicked on message boards by snarky people who think they know more about my job than I do. Of course, maybe if I made $7 million a year, I would happily ignore those message boards, and what is football without snarky message boards poring over every decision.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

That's fine, but the last possession decisions were objectively wrong. Shanahan traded the opportunity to guarantee a 2-game lead with 7 games to play for the opportunity to gain a 3-game lead that had lower odds than ending up with a 1-game lead.

As soon as Seattle punted, I was convinced the Niners would run on first down and if stopped, taken two knees, because that was the transparently obvious best choice to make. Here's a metaphor for how I felt as it was playing out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_akwHYMdbsM

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - teejers1 - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

It's not that hard to make the right decision in that situation (snark or no snark). Really.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - 76lsjumb - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 12:19 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

It's not that hard to make the right decision in that situation (snark or no snark). Really.

Well, of course, all decisions that turn out badly are INEXCUSABLE. Say, for example, you need 3 points to win, oh, I don’t know, how about the Fiesta Bowl. You have an eminently makeable field goal, but you would like to be a little closer, so...

... you throw a short pass, and it gets picked off. INEXCUSABLE

... you hand the ball off, and there’s a fumble. INEXCUSABLE

... the QB gets sacked for an 8 yard loss, taking you out of field goal range. INEXCUSABLE

... there’s a holding penalty on a play action. INEXCUSABLE

... you decide not to risk those things, but your kicker misses the field goal. INEXCUSABLE

Also, not sure about the lumping of “you-know-who” with Shanahan on this one. Scarlett up the middle 3 times is almost a guarantee... as would be the cry of INEXCUSABLE that he turtled rather than try to win...

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 12:19 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

It's not that hard to make the right decision in that situation (snark or no snark). Really.

And yet, time and again, fans can identify decisions that a coaching staff made that were "wrong", even for the most successful coaches at the highest levels. So, why is that?

1) Coaches are stupid, and "we" could do better.
2) Coaching is hard and it is a lot easier to make decisions in the comfort of your living room than in the pressure packed sideline.
3) Coaches have to make an innumerable number of decisions over the course of the year; some are bound to be "wrong".
4) Other coaching competencies, such as motivating players, or broad game strategies, or developing players, or (in college) recruiting make a much broader difference in the ultimate success or failure of a team; with the understanding that everybody will have their strengths and weaknesses, football coaching will select for coaching traits that have a greater (but perhaps less easily appreciated by fans) impact on winning and losing. Teams are paying the millions of dollars not to make the "right" decision every time, but for the overall package of traits that produces wins, of which making the "right" decision has less of an impact than you or I think.
5) Coaches are just looking to mess around with you because they know it drives you crazy. Yes you, specifically, Teejers.

BC

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - murky - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 01:17 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 12:19 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

It's not that hard to make the right decision in that situation (snark or no snark). Really.

And yet, time and again, fans can identify decisions that a coaching staff made that were "wrong", even for the most successful coaches at the highest levels. So, why is that?

1) Coaches are stupid, and "we" could do better.
2) Coaching is hard and it is a lot easier to make decisions in the comfort of your living room than in the pressure packed sideline.
3) Coaches have to make an innumerable number of decisions over the course of the year; some are bound to be "wrong".
4) Other coaching competencies, such as motivating players, or broad game strategies, or developing players, or (in college) recruiting make a much broader difference in the ultimate success or failure of a team; with the understanding that everybody will have their strengths and weaknesses, football coaching will select for coaching traits that have a greater (but perhaps less easily appreciated by fans) impact on winning and losing. Teams are paying the millions of dollars not to make the "right" decision every time, but for the overall package of traits that produces wins, of which making the "right" decision has less of an impact than you or I think.
5) Coaches are just looking to mess around with you because they know it drives you crazy. Yes you, specifically, Teejers.

BC

I take number 4. I've been trying to articulate something similar to that for some time, I think you did a pretty good job there.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - teejers1 - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 12:55 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 12:19 PM)teejers1 Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 11:05 AM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 10:39 AM)teejers1 Wrote: Guys, these kinds of mistakes are INEXCUSABLE, especially for coaches making millions/year, like Shanahan and you-know-who.

But maybe consider the coaching is hard, and that if you were in the spotlight you'd occasionally make "inexcusable" decisions.

BC

It's not that hard to make the right decision in that situation (snark or no snark). Really.

Well, of course, all decisions that turn out badly are INEXCUSABLE. Say, for example, you need 3 points to win, oh, I don’t know, how about the Fiesta Bowl. You have an eminently makeable field goal, but you would like to be a little closer, so...

... you throw a short pass, and it gets picked off. INEXCUSABLE

... you hand the ball off, and there’s a fumble. INEXCUSABLE

... the QB gets sacked for an 8 yard loss, taking you out of field goal range. INEXCUSABLE

... there’s a holding penalty on a play action. INEXCUSABLE

... you decide not to risk those things, but your kicker misses the field goal. INEXCUSABLE

Also, not sure about the lumping of “you-know-who” with Shanahan on this one. Scarlett up the middle 3 times is almost a guarantee... as would be the cry of INEXCUSABLE that he turtled rather than try to win...

Instead of going through each of your "sky falls" scenarios, I'll just ask you two questions:

1. Assuming you watched the 'Niners game last night, when they got the ball on their own 20 yard line with 1:45 left and Seattle having no timeouts, did you have an opinion as to what SF should do, or do you just watch and say "Hey, this is an interesting game, I wonder what will happen next?" If the former, did you feel strongly about it? Was your feeling, if any, informed by the overall standings and/or the flow of the game up till that point?

2. Do you really think you-know-who would have been excoriated for letting Andrew Luck try to score a TD or move into real "gimme" FG range at end of Fiesta and then there was a turnover? Really? Dude had been going through Okie State D like $hit through a goose all day; your returning-from-injury kicker had already missed on one FGA; and 37 yards is no gimme. I don't think anyone would have called letting Luck attempt to score/get closer in final 1+ minute "inexcusable." C'mon now.

And for BC, there's a difference between calls where reasonably (or even marginally) informed minds can differ - going for it on fourth down and inches vs. trying the GW FG in OT last night - is a classic example. Trying the FG and missing didn't work out, but it wasn't a bad decision, let alone inexcusable. Yes, fans complain all the time about bad "play calls." But the number of truly indefensible calls is very small (and should be zero). And if Shanahan has a lot going on real time, one of those things should be having someone on the headsets who isn't calling plays who can chime in with a reality check. I have no doubt Shanahan has a big ego and great confidence in his play calling and wants to win every game, especially with his O, to confirm his brilliance. But you know what, sometimes trying to show that off isn't the best thing for the team.

Last night at the end of OT, Shanahan did not do what was best for the team.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - Goose - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 05:09 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Last night at the end of OT, Shanahan did not do what was best for the team.

While it is certainly true that "turtleing" would have helped the niners in the standings, it is not necessarily true that that would have been the best thing for the team. To paraphrase the great Herm Edwards, you play to win the damn game. Shanahan may believe that sending a message to his team that 1) He has confidence in them even in difficult circumstances, and 2) they need to be all in all the time to win is more important that the risk to their position in the standings. He may feel that is about learning how to win. It didn't work out, but "being true to yourself" may be the issue. Would I have done that? No, but maybe that is one reason I am not the niner's coach.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - teejers1 - 11-12-2019

(11-12-2019, 05:23 PM)Goose Wrote:
(11-12-2019, 05:09 PM)teejers1 Wrote: Last night at the end of OT, Shanahan did not do what was best for the team.

While it is certainly true that "turtleing" would have helped the niners in the standings, it is not necessarily true that that would have been the best thing for the team. To paraphrase the great Herm Edwards, you play to win the damn game. Shanahan may believe that sending a message to his team that 1) He has confidence in them even in difficult circumstances, and 2) they need to be all in all the time to win is more important that the risk to their position in the standings. He may feel that is about learning how to win. It didn't work out, but "being true to yourself" may be the issue. Would I have done that? No, but maybe that is one reason I am not the niner's coach.

This ain't Hamlet (and it was an incredibly trite piece of advice even then, IIRC).

But my last word on this: you can run it once (and essentially remove chances for an L) and still give you sufficient time to get in FG range with passes. Think I previously made this point, so sorry if a repeat.

RE: OT. Niners/ Shanahan - BostonCard - 11-12-2019

I don’t disagree with the logic or the math. Deep in your own territory and with the current situation in the standings, playing for a tie at that point made complete sense, especially when you are at third and long and the conversion probability is not going to be great.

But it can be cognitively very difficult to play a four plus hour game of football where you are playing to win, and then decide on your last drive to play for a tie, especially when you are emotionally drained from fighting to come back, plus when you thought you could win the game earlier but missed the field goal, loss aversion kicks in.

Making the right call is always easier when you are sitting in your pajamas on a message board than it is when you are out on the field. I bet if you had 100 top tier coaches in the same position, a substantial minority, maybe even the majority, would do the same thing.

BC