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Softball Schedule Released - Printable Version

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Softball Schedule Released - BobK - 12-12-2019

https://gostanford.com/sports/softball/schedule

RE: Softball Schedule Released - d4cohn - 12-12-2019

Here is my analysis/breakdown of our schedule in terms of what it might mean for this season:

Overall, another solid schedule, mixing challenging games both in and out of conference,
with tossup games, with hopefully surefire wins. In looking at the non-conference schedule as a whole,
I would say it is probably relatively comparable to last year's schedule (maybe a hair easier, given
we have substituted some tournament level mid majors such as Drake, BYU and Grand Canyon
for our contests against Northwestern and Michigan last year; those wins over LSU, Michigan 
and Northwestern were big in terms of building our resume last year, so only having Tennessee as
a non-conference P5 opponent worries me a little bit in terms of name/prestige/cache. 

Granted, we will face plenty good P5 competition in conference, so it probably won't matter too much. 
All in all, this is definitely a tournament level schedule, but I am not certain it is a Top 16/Regional Host level 
non-conference schedule. However, if we notch some good wins in conference, that gives a path toward
a national seed.

In terms of the non-conference, here is my breakdown of our opponents by tier:

Definite Tournament Teams
at Tennessee (at least one game)


Like last year's contest at LSU, this year's non-conference schedule is highlighted
by another tough road test in Knoxville.

Strong Tournament Contenders
at BYU
at Grand Canyon (x2)
Drake (x2)
Fresno State 
vs. Weber State (x2)
Seattle (x2)

We have a lot of contests against strong mid major teams,
many of whom either made the NCAA tournament or strongly
contended for the NCAA tournament last year. 

Drake lost their ace pitcher that led them to a #2 regional seed,
so I think they will take a sizable step back, but I think they will
contend in their conference for a tournament berth.

I expect Fresno State and BYU to be in the tournament at-large
conversation, and Weber State and Seattle were both AQ's last year
(with Seattle even being a #3 regional seed). Grand Canyon upset
then #1 Florida State at home in Phoenix, so that is not an easy
opener for the Card by any means.

Average Mid-Majors

Nevada (x3)
Hofstra (x2)

I am expecting a stronger performance from Hofstra this year than 
last year, as previously the Pride have been a perennial tourney team/
in the at-large conversation. 

Below Average Mid Majors

vs New Mexico (x2)
Pacific
Saint Francis Pennsylvania (x2)
Rhode Island (x2)
Toledo  (at least one game)
East Tennessee State (at least one game)
at Saint Mary's (x2)
at Sacramento State (x2)
Santa Clara

We should hopefully win most, if not all of these games. 
(12-12-2019, 06:05 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Here is my analysis/breakdown of our schedule in terms of what it might mean for this season:

Overall, another solid schedule, mixing challenging games both in and out of conference,
with tossup games, with hopefully surefire wins. In looking at the non-conference schedule as a whole,
I would say it is probably relatively comparable to last year's schedule (maybe a hair easier, given
we have substituted some tournament level mid majors such as Drake, BYU and Grand Canyon
for our contests against Northwestern and Michigan last year; those wins over LSU, Michigan 
and Northwestern were big in terms of building our resume last year, so only having Tennessee as
a non-conference P5 opponent worries me a little bit in terms of name/prestige/cache. 

Granted, we will face plenty good P5 competition in conference, so it probably won't matter too much. 
All in all, this is definitely a tournament level schedule, but I am not certain it is a Top 16/Regional Host level 
non-conference schedule. However, if we notch some good wins in conference, that gives a path toward
a national seed.

In terms of the non-conference, here is my breakdown of our opponents by tier:

Definite Tournament Teams
at Tennessee (at least one game)


Like last year's contest at LSU, this year's non-conference schedule is highlighted
by another tough road test in Knoxville.

Strong Tournament Contenders
at BYU
at Grand Canyon (x2)
Drake (x2)
Fresno State 
vs. Weber State (x2)
Seattle (x2)

We have a lot of contests against strong mid major teams,
many of whom either made the NCAA tournament or strongly
contended for the NCAA tournament last year. 

Drake lost their ace pitcher that led them to a #2 regional seed,
so I think they will take a sizable step back, but I think they will
contend in their conference for a tournament berth.

I expect Fresno State and BYU to be in the tournament at-large
conversation, and Weber State and Seattle were both AQ's last year
(with Seattle even being a #3 regional seed). Grand Canyon upset
then #1 Florida State at home in Phoenix, so that is not an easy
opener for the Card by any means.

Average Mid-Majors

Nevada (x3)
Hofstra (x2)

I am expecting a stronger performance from Hofstra this year than 
last year, as previously the Pride have been a perennial tourney team/
in the at-large conversation. 

Below Average Mid Majors

vs New Mexico (x2)
Pacific
Saint Francis Pennsylvania (x2)
Rhode Island (x2)
Toledo  (at least one game)
East Tennessee State (at least one game)
at Saint Mary's (x2)
at Sacramento State (x2)
Santa Clara

We should hopefully win most, if not all of these games. 

In conference, here is the breakdown of opponents by difficulty:

Definite National Seed

Arizona (x3)
at UCLA (x3)
Washington (x3)

Wins in any of these are resume-defining wins.

Likely NCAA Tournament Team/NCAA Tournament Contender

at Oregon (x3)
at Arizona State (x3)
Oregon State (x3)
Cal (x3)

ASU is probably the strongest team in this bunch, who could challenge
for a Top 16 National seed. Oregon and Oregon State were pretty close
to tournament teams last year. Oregon's depth will probably still be thin (particularly
in the circle), but barring significant injuries, I expect them to make the tournament
this year. Oregon State barely missing the tournament was a surprise, but I think
they rebound this year to make the tournament.

Remaining Pac-12 Opponents

at Utah (x3)

I think Utah could be better this year, but they lost a lot of their rotation,
so it wouldn't surprise me if they were just as bad this year (granted
they still stole a game from us at home).

RE: Softball Schedule Released - BobK - 12-12-2019

Awesome summary D. Thank you.

RE: Softball Schedule Released - Mick - 12-12-2019

(12-12-2019, 06:05 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Below Average Mid Majors
Santa Clara

Santa Clara?  Below average?  Just because they were 16-34 last year with a five-inning, 13-0 loss to Stanford?

RE: Softball Schedule Released - BobK - 12-12-2019

The Santa Clara program has been bad for years. The highlight, which I loved, was the team bringing suit against the school to build a stadium on campus. Team won that one

RE: Softball Schedule Released - d4cohn - 12-12-2019

(12-12-2019, 07:19 PM)Mick Wrote:  
(12-12-2019, 06:05 PM)d4cohn Wrote:  Below Average Mid Majors
Santa Clara

Santa Clara?  Below average?  Just because they were 16-34 last year with a five-inning, 13-0 loss to Stanford?

I was trying to be diplomatic by using the term "Below Average" as opposed to just "bad".

RE: Softball Schedule Released - BostonCard - 12-12-2019

Guesses as to how we should do against that schedule? 

BC

RE: Softball Schedule Released - d4cohn - 12-12-2019

(12-12-2019, 07:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Guesses as to how we should do against that schedule? 

BC

I will be able to answer this question more robustly when Massey has incorporated
everyone's schedules for the coming season, and has their updated ratings and
game-by-game probabilities.

Until then, without that data, my prior would be fairly close to last year's result
(33-20 Overall, 8-13 in conference). I would probably expect to win a game or
two more out of conference, and a pretty comparable record in conference. My prior
on the exact record is not as strong as my prior re our tournament hopes/positioning though.

My prior there is pretty confident in a tournament berth and fairly confident in a #2 regional seed. I don't think
our non-conference is strong enough for me to be confident in a top 16 seed right now.

RE: Softball Schedule Released - cardcrimson - 12-12-2019

Sorry Mick. Your alma mater is being called all sorts of names by the crowd here. I apologize for their rancor. . . .

RE: Softball Schedule Released - Mick - 12-12-2019

(12-12-2019, 07:58 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  Sorry Mick. Your alma mater is being called all sorts of names by the crowd here. I apologize for their rancor. . . .

It would bother me except for the fact that SCU deserves the heck out of the names...

BTW, SCU's men's basketball team just beat Cal by 17 and are 9-2.  Loss to Stanford and had the holy hell kicked out of them by UN-Reno.  2-1 vs. Pac-12 this year. Former Arizona State coach Sendek can recruit and coach a little bit. And I didn't realize he had such a coaching tree, 11 D-1 coaches were his assistants or admin assistants.

RE: Softball Schedule Released - BobK - 12-12-2019

Thanks Mick. Team sued for an on campus stadium. They were playing at West Valley JC