WBB rankings - Printable Version

WBB rankings - Printable Version

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WBB rankings - BobK - 02-17-2020

Oregon 3. Stanford 4

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi

RE: WBB rankings - mbdude - 02-17-2020

UConn's streak of 253 consecutive weeks in AP top 5 ends

RE: WBB rankings - BostonCard - 02-17-2020

The link was to RPI, where we are (surprisingly) 10th. I would have thought with our schedule we'd be higher.

BC

RE: WBB rankings - BobK - 02-17-2020

Just click on rankings

RE: WBB rankings - M T - 02-17-2020

Right now, there are 3 top teams(including Oregon), and then a bunch of others, including Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon State. If one of those last 4 wins out (through the PAC-12 tourney) excepting maybe 1 game against Oregon, that team could be a #1 team. If they lose all their games against the others in the top-15, then they'll be deep in the 20s or worse. Most likely, they'll be a mix of wins and loses with all of them being #2, #3, #4 seeds.

Lest anyone feel more comfortable after reading that poll, I'll point out that (for whatever it is worth) RealTimeRPI has Stanford losing its last 3 games of the regular season, finishing 4th in the PAC-12, and aligned to play Oregon in the PAC-12 semis. If that were to occur, Pat Summit's record will survive to next year (and Geno might get it first), and Stanford would probably be a 3 seed at best in the NCAA tournament. We most critically need to win the game against Arizona.

(I'll note that AFIK, RealTimeRPI is blind to who is able to play for Stanford on any particular night. Those voting in the AP poll aren't.)

Frankly, I'd rank UCLA higher than Stanford, based on UCLA's win over Stanford. But there will be more to judge the PAC-12 teams on for each poll remaining this season!

RE: WBB rankings - oldalum - 02-17-2020

(02-17-2020, 03:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The link was to RPI, where we are (surprisingly) 10th. I would have thought with our schedule we'd be higher.

I don't understand why the NCAA still publishes and uses the RPI for women's basketball. Men's basketball has abandoned it. An algorithm that ranks Missouri State 4th when the AP poll puts them at #23 is obviously unreliable. So what's the point?

RE: WBB rankings - 81alum - 02-17-2020

(02-17-2020, 05:39 PM)M T Wrote: Right now, there are 3 top teams(including Oregon), and then a bunch of others, including Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon State. If one of those last 4 wins out (through the PAC-12 tourney) excepting maybe 1 game against Oregon, that team could be a #1 team. If they lose all their games against the others in the top-15, then they'll be deep in the 20s or worse. Most likely, they'll be a mix of wins and loses with all of them being #2, #3, #4 seeds.

Lest anyone feel more comfortable after reading that poll, I'll point out that (for whatever it is worth) RealTimeRPI has Stanford losing its last 3 games of the regular season, finishing 4th in the PAC-12, and aligned to play Oregon in the PAC-12 semis. If that were to occur, Pat Summit's record will survive to next year (and Geno might get it first), and Stanford would probably be a 3 seed at best in the NCAA tournament. We most critically need to win the game against Arizona.

(I'll note that AFIK, RealTimeRPI is blind to who is able to play for Stanford on any particular night. Those voting in the AP poll aren't.)

Frankly, I'd rank UCLA higher than Stanford, based on UCLA's win over Stanford. But there will be more to judge the PAC-12 teams on for each poll remaining this season!

That has been my fear ever since Haley Jones went down. But let's see if Oregon State can hold its halftime lead over UCLA.

If our goal is to get back to the final 4, then we want to avoid S Carolina, Baylor, and Oregon. We can avoid all of them if we get the 4th 1 seed OR if we get the 1st 2 seed. So I'd be happy if we could work our way up to overall 5. If we are overall 6 or 7 or 8 we have to beat one of those top 3 to get to the final four. If we are overall 4 or 5 we will have to beat a Louisville or UConn probably.

I think we could get that 5th slot even without beating Oregon in the regular season or in the tournament. But we would pretty much have to beat everyone else, and that is a VERY tall order. There are just so many tough games remaining--especially those very hostile venues in Arizona.

RE: WBB rankings - 81alum - 02-17-2020

Well, that is too bad. Oregon State led UCLA at UCLA almost the entire game but dissolved in overtime after Jones and Pivec fouled out. UCLA is favored substantially to win all their remaining regular season games so it is very likely they will have the Pac 12 2 seed.

It seems like it coming down to Stanford and Arizona for the 3 and 4 seeds, with the 4 seed being the seed of death. Arizona will most likely drop only one of the remaining four games or could win out. That means....

If we win out we will be tied with Oregon and I have no idea how the tiebreaker works.
We need to win any 3 games to guarantee the 3rd seed.
We can also gain the 3rd seed if we win 2/4 so long as one of the wins is at Arizona
If we beat Oregon State and Arizona State and lose to Oregon and Arizona, we will probably wind up in 4th unless Arizona loses at Colorado.
If we lose 3/4, we will definitely finish fourth.
If we lose 4/4, we will probably finish fifth and cede the 4 slot to ASU, giving us a play-in game.

As MT points out, the odds are suggesting we will beat Oregon State and lose out. That would be harsh. We could finish the Pac 12 tournament with a 25-7 record and might even lose our host status for the NCAAs.

Of course beating Oregon would solve lots of issues.

RE: WBB rankings - BobK - 02-17-2020

Ucla won in OT

RE: WBB rankings - 76lsjumb - 02-17-2020

(02-17-2020, 08:11 PM)81alum Wrote:
(02-17-2020, 05:39 PM)M T Wrote: Right now, there are 3 top teams(including Oregon), and then a bunch of others, including Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon State. If one of those last 4 wins out (through the PAC-12 tourney) excepting maybe 1 game against Oregon, that team could be a #1 team. If they lose all their games against the others in the top-15, then they'll be deep in the 20s or worse. Most likely, they'll be a mix of wins and loses with all of them being #2, #3, #4 seeds.

Lest anyone feel more comfortable after reading that poll, I'll point out that (for whatever it is worth) RealTimeRPI has Stanford losing its last 3 games of the regular season, finishing 4th in the PAC-12, and aligned to play Oregon in the PAC-12 semis. If that were to occur, Pat Summit's record will survive to next year (and Geno might get it first), and Stanford would probably be a 3 seed at best in the NCAA tournament. We most critically need to win the game against Arizona.

(I'll note that AFIK, RealTimeRPI is blind to who is able to play for Stanford on any particular night. Those voting in the AP poll aren't.)

Frankly, I'd rank UCLA higher than Stanford, based on UCLA's win over Stanford. But there will be more to judge the PAC-12 teams on for each poll remaining this season!
That has been my fear ever since Haley Jones went down. But let's see if Oregon State can hold its halftime lead over UCLA.

If our goal is to get back to the final 4, then we want to avoid S Carolina, Baylor, and Oregon. We can avoid all of them if we get the 4th 1 seed OR if we get the 1st 2 seed. So I'd be happy if we could work our way up to overall 5. If we are overall 6 or 7 or 8 we have to beat one of those top 3 to get to the final four. If we are overall 4 or 5 we will have to beat a Louisville or UConn probably.

I think we could get that 5th slot even without beating Oregon in the regular season or in the tournament. But we would pretty much have to beat everyone else, and that is a VERY tall order. There are just so many tough games remaining--especially those very hostile venues in Arizona.

"If our goal is to get back to the final 4, then we want to avoid S Carolina, Baylor, and Oregon. "

With all due respect, why would we want that to be our goal? Our goal should be to win a National Championship. In order to do that, we would very likely have to beat at least one, and probably two, of those teams, regardless of when we faced them.

After all, we've been to the Final Four many, many times over the past quarter century. As a program, it seems to me that we should long ago have graduated from the "just happy to get there" group to the "we're good enough, and we plan, to win the whole thing whomever we have to play and whenever we have to play them" group. My guess is that's how Oregon/Graves, Baylor/Mulkey and S. Carolina/Staley [and, yes, maybe even UConn/Auriemma] see things.

Sure, that's likely a stretch this season, given all of the injuries, but that should be our mentality. Otherwise, we've already conceded the National title [yet again] to one of those teams.

RE: WBB rankings - 81alum - 02-17-2020

(02-17-2020, 10:14 PM)76lsjumb Wrote: "If our goal is to get back to the final 4, then we want to avoid S Carolina, Baylor, and Oregon. "

With all due respect, why would we want that to be our goal? Our goal should be to win a National Championship. In order to do that, we would very likely have to beat at least one, and probably two, of those teams, regardless of when we faced them.

After all, we've been to the Final Four many, many times over the past quarter century. As a program, it seems to me that we should long ago have graduated from the "just happy to get there" group to the "we're good enough, and we plan, to win the whole thing whomever we have to play and whenever we have to play them" group. My guess is that's how Oregon/Graves, Baylor/Mulkey and S. Carolina/Staley [and, yes, maybe even UConn/Auriemma] see things.

Sure, that's likely a stretch this season, given all of the injuries, but that should be our mentality. Otherwise, we've already conceded the National title [yet again] to one of those teams.

I don't disagree. But before we can win a national championship we need to get back to the final four, and I would prefer to take the easiest path possible to increase the odds. I'd rather play those top three teams at the end of a long a successful run into the tournament.

Personally I also have a second goal, and that is earning as many wins as possible--since I am hoping that we get Tara her recognition on a national stage in the NCAAs and not in some po-dunk preseason game in November. I think this second goal may be more likely than the first.

I also think making it to the final four--even if not progressing further, is educational and valuable to our young team. The further we go this year will make a national championship more likely in future years.

RE: WBB rankings - BostonCard - 02-17-2020

The later we go before facing one of the “big three”, the more likely we are to not have to face them at all because someone else has upset them.

BC

RE: WBB rankings - TheFarm07 - 02-18-2020

The four remaining opponents we have are tough opponents, among the toughest in the country. We have to go on the road for two of those games and 2 of our 3 losses have been away at Maples. Yes, we are not perfect and we've played pretty sloppily even in victories. We are also missing two critical players. It would help if we get a surprise on Friday evening and DiJonai is able to suit up and play.

Given all that, we are still 23-3 and one of the best teams in the country. Even with Carrington and Jones out, we still have a multitude of weapons and a toughness when the chips are down. When thinking about these games, we often ponder who's going to stop Ionescu, Pivec, McDonald or Richardson, etc.? But let's also think about it from the other team's perspective as well.

I am sure our four opponents (even Oregon) aren't taking us lightly either. They've seen the improvement of Prechtel and Belibi over the season, witnessed Kiana's heroics, incorporated the return of Dodson and accounted for the 3-point prowess of the Hull sisters and Jump. They know we have a Hall of Fame coach who will game plan the best possible strategy to defeat them. We are a handful for any team and we'll give all four opponents all they can handle.

IMHO, I think either sweeping or getting swept is highly unlikely. I don't see us putting together four perfect games to beat these high quality opponents in back-to-back weekends. However, I also am very doubtful that we will lose all four either. Oregon State after a fast start seems more mortal, and even though Arizona and Arizona State are very dangerous, they both have their flaws. And well, Oregon is Oregon. It would take a perfect game to beat them. They seem extremely finetuned like the UConn teams with Stewart, Jefferson and Tuck or Moore, Montgomery and Charles. I rather save that perfect game for the national semis or finals. :)

I am hoping for 3-1, and would be somewhat disappointed in 2-2. I agree, that it would be great and further our chances of another FF appearance if we can get either the 4th #1 seed or the top #2 seed. I much rather face a NC State or a Maryland or even UConn this season than one of the top 3 teams, but if we have to face Baylor or South Carolina (I don't think they would put us in the same regional as Oregon, especially if we played them 3 times before the NCAA tournament), then we'll just have to go out there and try our best and hopefully by that time, DiJonai would be back and maybe Haley might make an appearance (I know slim chance, but that Elite 8 game will be either March 29 or 30, which is 6 weeks away and Tara hasn't announced Jones' injury is season-ending yet). Losing to Texas hurts as they have been decently good, but not great in the Big 12, having lost recently to a 13-11 Kansas team who is 2-11 in conference.

RE: WBB rankings - mbdude - 02-18-2020

Texas did have a "good" win over West Virginia last night

latest bracketology: http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

RE: WBB rankings - Baez87 - 02-18-2020

I like that optimism 07! And I think that it contributes to one of the intangibles in sports, Team Confidence. We as fans have an opportunity to help create that winning spirit. We have to turn off the drone of the national narrative to build that confidence. At the halftime of the UCLA-OreState game last night when Rebecca Lobo and her fellow sportscasters were discussing who might be the 4th seed in the NCAA Tournament, Lobo, once again overlooked Stanford as a potential team. She speculated that #4 would be either Louisville, Maryland, or even CONN. No mention of Stanford by her or anyone with a mic.
I can think back on decades of tournaments when an unexpected team captured the hearts of the fans across the country with their inspired play and never-say-die spirit. None of them said, "It can’t be done because we are statistically out of it." We have the choice to be "can do, will do" fans and be part of the winning spirit!
Who is game?

RE: WBB rankings - martyup - 02-18-2020

[Image: tenor.gif]

RE: WBB rankings - teejers1 - 02-18-2020

(02-18-2020, 10:20 AM)martyup Wrote:

There's more than the D&D "chance" (great scene, btw) with this Cardinal team. They have players with the game to beat any opponent. Obviously, to beat the better teams, the players will have to play well (and not just okay). Ki will have to play great - which I think we've seen enough to know that is a reasonable expectation against the better teams. Lexie will have to play well - 1 for 14 won't cut it, but again, Lexie has been very good most of the year that expecting the same come tourney time is reasonable. The wild cards - the high beta players who need to play at high end of their game during the tourney - are Prechtel, Lacie, Fingall, and perhaps Dodson (assuming she gets her legs back). And Wilson and Brown - when they get in to give Ki the requisite break (and perhaps spell other guards) - also need to play well. I actually feel pretty good about their games/contributions. They may not be noteworthy numbers due to PT limits, but they usually contribute concretely when in (Brown a little more of a wild card).

I guess another way to restate the above is as follows: for Stanford to go really far in the NCAAs, the bigs will have to play very well.

RE: WBB rankings - BosCard - 02-18-2020

(02-18-2020, 11:49 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(02-18-2020, 10:20 AM)martyup Wrote:

There's more than the D&D "chance" (great scene, btw) with this Cardinal team. They have players with the game to beat any opponent. Obviously, to beat the better teams, the players will have to play well (and not just okay). Ki will have to play great - which I think we've seen enough to know that is a reasonable expectation against the better teams. Lexie will have to play well - 1 for 14 won't cut it, but again, Lexie has been very good most of the year that expecting the same come tourney time is reasonable. The wild cards - the high beta players who need to play at high end of their game during the tourney - are Prechtel, Lacie, Fingall, and perhaps Dodson (assuming she gets her legs back). And Wilson and Brown - when they get in to give Ki the requisite break (and perhaps spell other guards) - also need to play well. I actually feel pretty good about their games/contributions. They may not be noteworthy numbers due to PT limits, but they usually contribute concretely when in (Brown a little more of a wild card).

I guess another way to restate the above is as follows: for Stanford to go really far in the NCAAs, the bigs will have to play very well.

I would add Jump on the list of high beta players. She can knock down 3 three's in a two minute span and blow a game open or mount a furious comeback.

RE: WBB rankings - teejers1 - 02-18-2020

(02-18-2020, 01:27 PM)BosCard Wrote:
(02-18-2020, 11:49 AM)teejers1 Wrote:
(02-18-2020, 10:20 AM)martyup Wrote:

There's more than the D&D "chance" (great scene, btw) with this Cardinal team. They have players with the game to beat any opponent. Obviously, to beat the better teams, the players will have to play well (and not just okay). Ki will have to play great - which I think we've seen enough to know that is a reasonable expectation against the better teams. Lexie will have to play well - 1 for 14 won't cut it, but again, Lexie has been very good most of the year that expecting the same come tourney time is reasonable. The wild cards - the high beta players who need to play at high end of their game during the tourney - are Prechtel, Lacie, Fingall, and perhaps Dodson (assuming she gets her legs back). And Wilson and Brown - when they get in to give Ki the requisite break (and perhaps spell other guards) - also need to play well. I actually feel pretty good about their games/contributions. They may not be noteworthy numbers due to PT limits, but they usually contribute concretely when in (Brown a little more of a wild card).

I guess another way to restate the above is as follows: for Stanford to go really far in the NCAAs, the bigs will have to play very well.

I would add Jump on the list of high beta players. She can knock down 3 three's in a two minute span and blow a game open or mount a furious comeback.

I agree - and having watched Jump play with and against one of my kids, I have special rooting interest in her success. I'm just concerned that opponents will not give her any space to let fly the trey. We shall see.

RE: WBB rankings - JTM - 02-18-2020

Arizona State beat both Oregon teams, and on the same weekend. Why not Stanford?