How do we reopen Youth Sports? - Printable Version
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How do we reopen Youth Sports? - cardcrimson - 04-15-2020
It's a $19.2 billion industry, rivaling the NFL (and that doesn't include the booze and food parents eat during endless swim meets). How does it get going again? Economically, it's important; health wise, it's important too. I think it's important from a mental health standpoint, as well.
Dance, musical theatre, etc. are in the same boat. The kids need them, the economy needs them, and as a parent, I need them.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/26/1964575/0/en/Youth-Sports-Market-Projected-to-Reach-77-6-Billion-by-2026-Comprehensive-Industry-Analysis-Insights.html
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - Farm93 - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 05:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: It's a $19.2 billion industry, rivaling the NFL (and that doesn't include the booze and food parents eat during endless swim meets). How does it get going again? Economically, it's important; health wise, it's important too. I think it's important from a mental health standpoint, as well.I am on a local youth sport organization board. We (OK mainly me) tried hard in early March to tell our group that we should be done for the season.
Dance, musical theatre, etc. are in the same boat. The kids need them, the economy needs them, and as a parent, I need them.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/26/1964575/0/en/Youth-Sports-Market-Projected-to-Reach-77-6-Billion-by-2026-Comprehensive-Industry-Analysis-Insights.html
As I understand it until this past weekend our Southern California geographic sub-division just below the national level was still holding out hope for May activities and tournaments. This is an organization without a lot of fixed costs, so I can only guess that those sports programs with lots of fixed costs really hope this will end ASAP.
There are a few different organizational structures in play.
Some are largely volunteer based utilizing community facilities on a use or seasonal basis with precious few fixed costs. In most cases those organizations can just suspend activities and resume when cities open their fields to organized sports.
Other organizations pay coaches or trainers, but generally that compensation is tied to hours actively coaching on the field. Most organizations would not provide compensation and realistically there is little risk of losing their coaches because there aren't other groups looking for help right now.
For some sports and elite levels for other sports there are probably more fixed costs for facilities and equipment, but I would guess very few of those firms have a lot of debt. If a firm does have those types of fixed costs, they might be in trouble as I doubt most of them have business models that could absorb 3-6 months without any revenue.
Moving on to the kids. My general pitch is that athletic activity as a child is really critical foundation for a healthy lifestyle. Win or lose on any given weekend is not as critical as staying active, learning about teamwork, etc. etc.
However, I wouldn't use that promotional pitch right now. Staying alive carries the day. Team sports probably will not bring a lot of COVID19 risks for the 5-16 year old children common in youth sports, but could bring big risks for their sub-5 siblings, the parents or the grandparents.
I am sure a lot of families will try to do things as a family unit to stay healthy and fit this summer and will re-assess once things settle down. There is no doubt in my mind at all that the rates for obesity will increase in 2020 and that this particular generation of children will become the most obese yet if they go two or three pre-vaccine years without organized sports but with more video gaming.
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - akiddoc - 04-15-2020
(04-15-2020, 08:01 PM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-15-2020, 05:29 PM)cardcrimson Wrote: It's a $19.2 billion industry, rivaling the NFL (and that doesn't include the booze and food parents eat during endless swim meets). How does it get going again? Economically, it's important; health wise, it's important too. I think it's important from a mental health standpoint, as well.I am on a local youth sport organization board. We (OK mainly me) tried hard in early March to tell our group that we should be done for the season.
Dance, musical theatre, etc. are in the same boat. The kids need them, the economy needs them, and as a parent, I need them.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/12/26/1964575/0/en/Youth-Sports-Market-Projected-to-Reach-77-6-Billion-by-2026-Comprehensive-Industry-Analysis-Insights.html
As I understand it until this past weekend our Southern California geographic sub-division just below the national level was still holding out hope for May activities and tournaments. This is an organization without a lot of fixed costs, so I can only guess that those sports programs with lots of fixed costs really hope this will end ASAP.
There are a few different organizational structures in play.
Some are largely volunteer based utilizing community facilities on a use or seasonal basis with precious few fixed costs. In most cases those organizations can just suspend activities and resume when cities open their fields to organized sports.
Other organizations pay coaches or trainers, but generally that compensation is tied to hours actively coaching on the field. Most organizations would not provide compensation and realistically there is little risk of losing their coaches because there aren't other groups looking for help right now.
For some sports and elite levels for other sports there are probably more fixed costs for facilities and equipment, but I would guess very few of those firms have a lot of debt. If a firm does have those types of fixed costs, they might be in trouble as I doubt most of them have business models that could absorb 3-6 months without any revenue.
Moving on to the kids. My general pitch is that athletic activity as a child is really critical foundation for a healthy lifestyle. Win or lose on any given weekend is not as critical as staying active, learning about teamwork, etc. etc.
However, I wouldn't use that promotional pitch right now. Staying alive carries the day. Team sports probably will not bring a lot of COVID19 risks for the 5-16 year old children common in youth sports, but could bring big risks for their sub-5 siblings, the parents or the grandparents.
I am sure a lot of families will try to do things as a family unit to stay healthy and fit this summer and will re-assess once things settle down. There is no doubt in my mind at all that the rates for obesity will increase in 2020 and that this particular generation of children will become the most obese yet if they go two or three pre-vaccine years without organized sports but with more video gaming.
There are some sports that are in big trouble. We'll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport. Coronavirus will be aerosolized big time there. Gymnastics teams are usually supported by large recreational programs that support the much smaller number on the competitive team. My son's age group gym has 1500 recreational gymnasts and 85 team members. The head coaches and a couple of the assistants are full time. I don't know how they are going to get back where they were over the next 5 years. People won't want their kids around so many other children.
Like many other parts of life, we'll have to decide as a society how much risk we will accept. Americans want zero risk. There is no such thing. Luckily, the risk to children is probably going to be similar to the risk from influenza. Or maybe less.
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?
BC
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - Snorlax94 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?Yes I am curious to know also. One of my family’s favorite activities was hanging out at say, a hotel pool. *if* it could be done with spacing (like one family reserving the pool at a time), will pools be safe?
BC
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - M T - 04-16-2020
The aerosolized statement regarding swimming is not a slam dunk for me. I think aKidDoc is right....
The 6' mantra we here is a physical separation. I've not heard any temporal guidance. If I pass through the same physical location 2 seconds after someone else walks through it, what is my risk, (1) if they were breathing normally (no exertion beyond walking), (2) if they had coughed at that place, or (3) they were breathing heavily (running, biking, etc.).
If heavy breathing caused by exertion aerosolizes some of the virus in the throat (or lungs or nasal passages), then all virtually all sports with any exertion are going to be a problem. Swimming, track, weight lifting, racquet ball, probably diving (I wasn't a diver, so I'm not sure). Gyms with stationary bikes or treadmills are a hazard.
Even running/biking at a park or on city streets may be a problem on a calm day. The person exercising may leave a floating cloud of virus particles that could hang around for some time, ready to infect a pedestrian out for a stroll.
If a next door neighbor has a pool, or does heavy exercise in his back yard, might he produce enough aerosolized virus to infect someone in his next door neighbor's yard?
If heavy breathing only produces droplets, then it isn't as clear to me. Doing swimming workouts where multiple people share a lane would be a problem (as you have rest periods where the swimmers are close together). During swimming, exhalation is typically under water, and rises to the surface in bubbles. It is completely uncertain to me whether the collapse of those bubbles at the surface can cause aerosolization. Perhaps it does.
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - Farm93 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?BC definitely yes...less safe than track.
BC
A typical HS track team trains on a 400M oval. That typical HS might have 100 athletes, and most don't even need to train on the actual track or even at the school at all. Those long training courses on city streets are ideal for physical distancing.
A typical HS swim team trains in a 25yd pool, in some states that pool is an indoor pool. And every athlete on the team is in the same rather small pool.
It doesn't really matter though.
Most public schools in the USA are going to see massive budget cuts as most states have blown massive holes in their budgets buying PPE and ventilators. The schools will have to reconfigure classrooms and lunchrooms. At the same time they will get less money from their states. A lot of non-essentials will need to get cut from the budget. Contact sports will all have a tough time complying with new distance rules. So they seem like very easy targets.
My guess is a number of school districts in CA were just looking for excuses to stop fielding football teams already.
Football participation is way down.
Football insurance costs are higher than ever, especially on a per player basis.
For a school district with budget issues and COVID19 concerns it will be super easy to bundle all of that together and opt out at least for 2020 & 2021.
And after two years there will just be a number of schools that do not offer football, just like there are a number of colleges and universities that don't field teams.
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?
BC
From the CDC's website:
There is no evidence that COVID-19 can be spread to humans through the use of pools, hot tubs or spas, or water playgrounds. Proper operation, maintenance, and disinfection (e.g., with chlorine and bromine) of pools, hot tubs or spas, and water playgrounds should inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19.
While there is ongoing community spread of COVID-19, there should be appropriate care taken both in and outside the pool, to protect yourself and others. Owners and operators of community pools, hot tubs, or spas should follow the interim guidance for businesses and employers to plan and respond to COVID-19.
Several other publications from other countries agree that swimming should be A-OK, as chlorine "should" inactivate the virus. Here's another one: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/environmentalhealthguidance/Advice%20note%20to%20EHS%20on%20Coronavirus%20and%20Drinking%20%20Water%20and%20Swimming%20Pools_V3.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1E-fL5ZLoxXwYyJ4ldqxyUu1fOwrOVnABVq31qYDBZpwfOTUKdhdm3kGU
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - magnus - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:17 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:Unfortunately, at the speed with which knowledge on this virus is evolving, the above post may be considered sarcasm in the future. =/(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?
BC
From the CDC's website:
There is no evidence that COVID-19 can be spread to humans through the use of pools, hot tubs or spas, or water playgrounds. Proper operation, maintenance, and disinfection (e.g., with chlorine and bromine) of pools, hot tubs or spas, and water playgrounds should inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19.
While there is ongoing community spread of COVID-19, there should be appropriate care taken both in and outside the pool, to protect yourself and others. Owners and operators of community pools, hot tubs, or spas should follow the interim guidance for businesses and employers to plan and respond to COVID-19.
Several other publications from other countries agree that swimming should be A-OK, as chlorine "should" inactivate the virus. Here's another one: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/environmentalhealthguidance/Advice%20note%20to%20EHS%20on%20Coronavirus%20and%20Drinking%20%20Water%20and%20Swimming%20Pools_V3.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1E-fL5ZLoxXwYyJ4ldqxyUu1fOwrOVnABVq31qYDBZpwfOTUKdhdm3kGU
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - Farm93 - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 08:41 AM)magnus Wrote:I wouldn't be too alarmed by the water as a method of transmission. Rather I would be worried about the lack of physical distancing associated with those venues. A children's water park is usually PACKED in the summer. Same for a community lap pool. Most of those community pools utilize showers and locker rooms that even in the best of times are not exactly the cleanest places.(04-16-2020, 08:17 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:Unfortunately, at the speed with which knowledge on this virus is evolving, the above post may be considered sarcasm in the future. =/(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?
BC
From the CDC's website:
There is no evidence that COVID-19 can be spread to humans through the use of pools, hot tubs or spas, or water playgrounds. Proper operation, maintenance, and disinfection (e.g., with chlorine and bromine) of pools, hot tubs or spas, and water playgrounds should inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19.
While there is ongoing community spread of COVID-19, there should be appropriate care taken both in and outside the pool, to protect yourself and others. Owners and operators of community pools, hot tubs, or spas should follow the interim guidance for businesses and employers to plan and respond to COVID-19.
Several other publications from other countries agree that swimming should be A-OK, as chlorine "should" inactivate the virus. Here's another one: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/environmentalhealthguidance/Advice%20note%20to%20EHS%20on%20Coronavirus%20and%20Drinking%20%20Water%20and%20Swimming%20Pools_V3.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1E-fL5ZLoxXwYyJ4ldqxyUu1fOwrOVnABVq31qYDBZpwfOTUKdhdm3kGU
Choice A - Have my children jump into a community pool with 20 other kids and their parents lurking on the edge of the pool.
Choice B - Run some laps on a rarely used track at the nearby middle school
I will take Choice B every day. It is not about the chlorine efficacy, it would be a function on physical distancing.
Plus it is harder to wear a mask while swimming. ;)
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - BostonCard - 04-16-2020
These letters in response to the article about SARS-CoV survival on various surfaces indicate how much uncertainty there is on the question of transmission.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007942?query=TOC
It is notable that there is widespread belief that aersonolized transmission is difficult, with the exception of medical procedures that generate aerosols. That may prove to be wrong, but I go back to the fact that if the virus was this transmissible, the R0 would be expected to be much higher. An R0 of 2-3 (with the caveat that some believe the number to be higher) would imply mostly close contact, not casually breathing exhaled air by an asymptomatic individuals. There will always be exceptions and unusual cases (for example, the woman who became infected despite being sheltered in place), and data is evolving fast.
BC
RE: How do we reopen Youth Sports? - cardcrimson - 04-16-2020
(04-16-2020, 10:18 AM)Farm93 Wrote:(04-16-2020, 08:41 AM)magnus Wrote:I wouldn't be too alarmed by the water as a method of transmission. Rather I would be worried about the lack of physical distancing associated with those venues. A children's water park is usually PACKED in the summer. Same for a community lap pool. Most of those community pools utilize showers and locker rooms that even in the best of times are not exactly the cleanest places.(04-16-2020, 08:17 AM)cardcrimson Wrote:Unfortunately, at the speed with which knowledge on this virus is evolving, the above post may be considered sarcasm in the future. =/(04-16-2020, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote: How do you mean “we’ll never be able to certify swimming as a safe sport”? Why would it be any less safe than, say, track?
BC
From the CDC's website:
There is no evidence that COVID-19 can be spread to humans through the use of pools, hot tubs or spas, or water playgrounds. Proper operation, maintenance, and disinfection (e.g., with chlorine and bromine) of pools, hot tubs or spas, and water playgrounds should inactivate the virus that causes COVID-19.
While there is ongoing community spread of COVID-19, there should be appropriate care taken both in and outside the pool, to protect yourself and others. Owners and operators of community pools, hot tubs, or spas should follow the interim guidance for businesses and employers to plan and respond to COVID-19.
Several other publications from other countries agree that swimming should be A-OK, as chlorine "should" inactivate the virus. Here's another one: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/environmentalhealthguidance/Advice%20note%20to%20EHS%20on%20Coronavirus%20and%20Drinking%20%20Water%20and%20Swimming%20Pools_V3.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1E-fL5ZLoxXwYyJ4ldqxyUu1fOwrOVnABVq31qYDBZpwfOTUKdhdm3kGU
Choice A - Have my children jump into a community pool with 20 other kids and their parents lurking on the edge of the pool.
Choice B - Run some laps on a rarely used track at the nearby middle school
I will take Choice B every day. It is not about the chlorine efficacy, it would be a function on physical distancing.
Plus it is harder to wear a mask while swimming. ;)
More thinking about swim meets and water polo. No contact during swim meets or practices, where social distancing can be maintained to some extent. Water polo has a lot of contact, but most of it underwater; though the kids will breathe on each other I guess.