Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - Printable Version
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Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - Leftcoast - 04-21-2020
What's the chances Covid-19 is seasonal? It sure looks like warming weather in previously impacted areas is highly correlated with a drop in new cases.
To take the example I know best - San Jose is seeing highs in the 70s/low 80s over the past two weeks and reported new cases are now tanking. I understand this is a multi-variate problem and a novel virus without case history but the same pattern is seen around the US and perhaps in Southern Europe.
Seasonality would be very good news so is there any science on this yet? (Also, other Coronaviruses are seasonal, correct?)
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - magnus - 04-21-2020
The counter example to seasonality is Singapore.
But if you want to argue for seasonality, you could say they did do a good job of containing until it hit their migrant worker boarding areas.
I also remember reading an argument that said Singapore also was handicapped by its usage of AC.
As for science or studies, one of the other threads updated today included a link to a study that showed reaction to heat and humidity followed by a post with a different link that showed no reaction to heat.
Definitely a TBD.
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - BostonCard - 04-21-2020
Actually the counterexamples are Brazil (43,000 cases, 2700 deaths), which is hardly a cold weather country, especially this time of year.
BC
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - terry - 04-21-2020
(04-21-2020, 05:51 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: What's the chances Covid-19 is seasonal? It sure looks like warming weather in previously impacted areas is highly correlated with a drop in new cases.
To take the example I know best - San Jose is seeing highs in the 70s/low 80s over the past two weeks and reported new cases are now tanking. I understand this is a multi-variate problem and a novel virus without case history but the same pattern is seen around the US and perhaps in Southern Europe.
Seasonality would be very good news so is there any science on this yet? (Also, other Coronaviruses are seasonal, correct?)
San Jose has been under a shelter in place order for 5 weeks. You would expect to see a decline in new cases, without regard to the weather.
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - dabigv13 - 04-21-2020
I think it's likely there is some slight seasonality to it. With higher temperatures it makes sense that virus would degrade quicker. But because this is a novel virus without any immunity in the population, you would still get exponential spread, just the doubling times would be longer.
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - chrisk - 04-21-2020
Regardless of seasonality, the CDC director himself is warning that a 2nd wave this fall/winter could be worse than the current one.
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - cardcrimson - 04-21-2020
(04-21-2020, 07:43 PM)chrisk Wrote: Regardless of seasonality, the CDC director himself is warning that a 2nd wave this fall/winter could be worse than the current one.
When did reading comprehension no longer become important? The director hypothesized that the second wave could could impact the US more because it might coincide with the peak of the typical flu season. He didn't say the 2nd wave of the coronavirus itself would be worse than the one we're experiencing now. . . .
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - pefloresjr - 04-22-2020
I saw the CDC comment on the news. I hope that next years flu season isn't a bad one. If they get an effective vaccine that actually targets the strains that go around in addition to the new hand washing, mask wearing, and distancing that many Americans will now practice, maybe we will help to keep the flu numbers down. This isn't based on any scientific studies or anything, but we have to look for hope where we can find it these days.
Cheers,
Pete F.
RE: Is the Coronavirus seasonal? - JustAnotherFan - 04-22-2020
I wonder how many folks are going to get the flu shot next year. I fear it will be far too few. I already see people on Facebook trying to scare people away from taking the flu shot next year and from taking the COVID-19 vaccine if/when it becomes available, for all the many absurd reasons that people have for that.