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Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - Printable Version

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Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 82lsju - 05-20-2020

Quote:Stanford claimed three NCAA championships in late 2019 in men’s water polo, women’s soccer and women’s volleyball before the NCAA decided in March to cancel the remainder of its winter seasons and the entirety of the spring campaign.

These three titles increased Stanford’s total to 126 and extended the Cardinal lead for most trophies earned by a single college athletics program to eight. Pac-12 rival UCLA falls in second and currently has 118 championships, and another Pac-12 school, USC, checks in at third with 107 at the end of the decade.

https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/05/19/visualized-stanfords-rise-to-ncaa-title-supremacy/

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BostonCard - 05-20-2020

Interesting to see the dip that resulted in the 2000's.  Might it have had anything to do with the dean of admissions at the time?

BC

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-20-2020

I know Mamlet is hugely unpopular around these parts, but her tenure as admissions dean was from 2000 to 2005, so her maximum years of impact would have been athletic seasons between 2003 and 2007, when nearly all athletes were ones admitted under her watch. Stanford collected:

2003: 2
2004: 2
2005: 2
2006: 2
2007: 2
Avg: 2

Yet well over a decade after she left, Stanford was not doing noticeably better in the first years where Dean Shaw's admits comprised almost all Stanford athletes:

2008: 0
2009: 2
2010: 2
2011: 3
2012: 1
2013: 1
2014: 1
Avg.: 1.4

Only in Shaw's second decade at the helm did our athletics performance take off:

2015: 3
2016: 3
2017: 4
2018: 3
2019: 8
Avg.: 4.2

So to the degree we are looking for causal factors, I'm guessing there was more at work than whoever is the admissions dean, because the first decade after Shaw took the helm looked essentially no different than the peak Mamlet years.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-20-2020

Well Robin the Evil caused Monty to look for another job. How did that work out for mbb?
Not good at all

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-20-2020

(05-20-2020, 03:58 PM)BobK Wrote:  Well Robin the Evil caused Monty to look for another job.  How did that work out for mbb? 
Not good at all
Be that as it may, remind me how many titles Monty won? One final four, one elite eight, one sweet 16. Hardly a dynasty compared to most other Stanford sports. And the Lopez Twins were admitted under her watch, among the top recruits Stanford MBB has ever had. Get that she's not well liked in these parts, but our title hauls were no better in the decade after she was gone.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BostonCard - 05-20-2020

I assume you are using calendar years and not academic years since we maintain an academic year national title streak that dates back to way before even Mamlet (you have a big fat zero in 2008).

There was a different transition that happened closer to the time you cite as critical for our national titles to shoot up.  In May, 2012, Bob Bowlsby left as AD at Stanford to become the commissioner of the Big12.  He was athletic director from 2006 to 2012 and Stanford won 10 national titles over that time period.  In the eight years since, we've won 26 by my math (including the COVID-shortened 2019/2020 year)

BC

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-20-2020

(05-20-2020, 04:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I assume you are using calendar years and not academic years since we maintain an academic year national title streak that dates back to way before even Mamlet (you have a big fat zero in 2008).

There was a different transition that happened closer to the time you cite as critical for our national titles to shoot up.  In May, 2012, Bob Bowlsby left as AD at Stanford to become the commissioner of the Big12.  He was athletic director from 2006 to 2012 and Stanford won 10 national titles over that time period.  In the eight years since, we've won 26 by my math (including the COVID-shortened 2019/2020 year)

BC

Yeah, I used calendar year since that's what the Daily used in the link you sent and I was way too lazy to go get the other dataset. 

AD swap makes more sense to me than admissions swap, all things considered. I am sure there were a few high profile misses under Mamlet that would have enhanced football and basketball, in particular. But our chances of winning a national championship in revenue sports has been vanishingly slim historically regardless of admissions dean, whereas we have been very competitive in Olympic sports before, during, and after "Mamlet the Horrible." In particular, when I was at Stanford I remember our baseball, WVB, M&W CC, and W tennis teams being outstanding, so clearly at least some sports were still able to admit top athletes. (Or maybe I just remember those because I knew athletes on those teams.)

More than anything, I remember the 00s as the decade where we had tons of runner ups - 4 times in WVB, 4 in WWP, 4 in MWP, 5 College World Series, and either second or third place in MS&D every year from 2001-2009. Lots of close misses. But clearly we were fielding teams capable of bringing home hardware, so it feels pretty weird to lay that all on the hands of Mamlet.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - Mick - 05-21-2020

(05-20-2020, 04:05 PM)2006alum Wrote:  
(05-20-2020, 03:58 PM)BobK Wrote:  Well Robin the Evil caused Monty to look for another job.  How did that work out for mbb? 
Not good at all
Be that as it may, remind me how many titles Monty won? One final four, one elite eight, one sweet 16. Hardly a dynasty compared to most other Stanford sports. And the Lopez Twins were admitted under her watch, among the top recruits Stanford MBB has ever had. Get that she's not well liked in these parts, but our title hauls were no better in the decade after she was gone.

Neither football or mbb constitute anything remotely like a dynasty.  Perhaps we should get rid of those money sports.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - fullmetal - 05-21-2020

I don't think it's unfair to say that both admissions and Athletic Director have major impacts on sports team performances and that they are not mutually exclusive.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-21-2020

I’m about positive the Lopis were admitted right after robin the terrible left
If having Monty leave was good then I disagree. It hasn’t worked at all

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-21-2020

(05-21-2020, 10:18 AM)BobK Wrote:  I’m about positive the Lopis were admitted right after robin the terrible left
If having Monty leave was good then I disagree.  It hasn’t worked at all

I am pretty confident they were admitted while Mamlet was still AD, because they committed to Stanford in February 2005. And I remember chatter that they had unofficially told Stanford they were coming as early as Spring 2004, because I remember it was about the same time that we were on our undefeated win streak.

The first admissions cycle under Shaw was HS class of 2006. I would be very surprised if they had not, at the very least, been given very strong signals about admissibility under Mamlet for them to commit publicly like that.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-21-2020

Agree on committed but that’s not accepted

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-21-2020

(05-21-2020, 10:40 AM)BobK Wrote:  Agree on committed but that’s not accepted
Do you genuinely think they would publicly commit to Stanford in February 2005 without an assurance they were very likely to be admitted and then Mamlet would later tell them no? Are there any other high profile examples like that during this era? I also just find this strange because other top recruits like Josh Childress were admitted under Mamlet, and if you look at Mamlet era MBB recruits and post-Mamlet-era, I don't see a brobdingnagian difference in their recruiting rankings:

Mamlet Era:
18 – Josh Childress, 2001 (RSCI)
70 – Rob Little, 2001 (RSCI)
94 – Chris Hernandez, 2001 (RSCI)
73 – Matt Haryasz, 2002 (RSCI)
83 – Tim Morris, 2003 (RSCI)
92 – Lawrence Hill, 2005 (RSCI)
09 – Brook Lopez, 2006 (RSCI)
19 – Robin Lopez, 2006 (RSCI)

Post-Mamlet:
[Notice that other than the Lopii, who committed while Mamlet was still admissions dean, there was a brobdingnagian void in Top 100 recruits in Shaw's first four seasons as admissions dean.]
38 – Dwight Powell, 2010 (RSCI)
54 – Anthony Brown, 2010 (RSCI)
63 – Chasson Randle, 2011 (RSCI)
73 – Roscoe Allen, 2012 (RSCI)
97 – Grant Verhoeven, 2012 (RSCI)
96 – Marcus Allen, 2013 (RSCI)
35 – Reid Travis, 2014 (RSCI)
59 – Michael Humphrey, 2014 (RSCI)
69 – Robert Cartwright, 2014 (RSCI)

Indeed, our MBB team cratered since the Lopii twins left in 2008. That was under Shaw's helm, not Mamlet's. Should we hold Shaw responsible for the fact that between 2008 and 2014 he couldn't get recruits admitted that could take us to the NCAAs?

I am just not seeing evidence that our athletic recruiting or performance on the court/field took a significant dip because of Mamlet in any sport but football, and even there, several of our highest ranked recruits since 2000 were admitted under Mamlet:

3. Michael Craven (2001)
7. Trent Edwards (2002)
9. Julian Jenkins (2002)
11. J.R. Lemon (2001)

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-21-2020

Ms Lopez was a stanford grad. Yes they did and would commit before acceptance.

Oh well quote athletes but also show their transcripts. Thinking Josh wasn’t a brilliant student is insulting

Oh well Monty was t the first Mbb coacg we lost because of admissions

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - fullmetal - 05-21-2020

The analysis also doesn't factor in Trent Johnson's aptitude as a recruiter, does it?

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-21-2020

(05-21-2020, 01:06 PM)BobK Wrote:  Oh well quote athletes but also show their transcripts.  Thinking Josh wasn’t a brilliant student is insulting 

I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here, but Childress had an 1100 SAT score and a 3.5 HS GPA. Not exactly typical Stanford admissions profile minus the top athlete part.

And it's not like Mamlet was operating in a vacuum here: Stanford's acceptance rate went from 22.1% for the class of 1996 to 20% for the Class of 1998 to 13% for the class of 2004 (Monty's last year) to 6.6% for the class of 2012. It is very possible Monty saw the writing on the wall and jumped to a far more lucrative NBA head coach position that had just opened up. It's not at all surprising that some top student-athletes would be among those top 22% but not among the top 13%.

Moral of the story: I get that Mamlet wasn't well liked by the AD, but there's no demonstrable evidence that Stanford dropped in athletic performance while she was Admissions Dean, and that was also a period in which a brobdingnagian expansion in applicants meant that the university was more competitive to get admitted to than ever. That no doubt put pressure on coaches, and it seems that our athlete recruiting and national championship output was not demonstrably better in the first ten years of Shaw's tenure, during which time the acceptance rate plummeted even further.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BostonCard - 05-21-2020

I believe Steve Durrett (or maybe it was Terry) showed that his eponymous "rule" went up during the Mamlet years.  Combinations of SAT/GPA that had previously gotten athletes admitted to Stanford were not getting admitted.  As I recall, the data was shown to John Etchemendy, who had been in denial about a change in admissions criteria for athletes and the results were apparently eye-opening to him.

BC

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-21-2020

Thanks BosCard, yes shown to Etch and Leland. I still have some of the letters altough from a different writer.

RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - 2006alum - 05-21-2020

(05-21-2020, 01:06 PM)BobK Wrote:  Oh well Monty was t the first Mbb coacg we lost because of admissions

Then why did Monty literally say the opposite to the Chronicle[/url] in 2004?:
Quote:Former coach [url=https://www.sfgate.com/search/?action=search&channel=sports&inlineLink=1&searchindex=solr&query=%22Mike+Montgomery%22]Mike Montgomery was one of them. During the 2002-03 season his former assistant and longtime friend Stew Morrill, the coach at Utah State, said he noticed Montgomery increasingly frustrated with the difficulties presented by the admissions standards.
Asked whether it had gotten more difficult to get players admitted to Stanford in recent years, Montgomery responded: "You're not going to get me to answer that question. I don't think anybody wants to talk about that."
He did add, however, that the admissions challenges did not play a role in his decision to leave Stanford after 18 years and take the Warriors coaching job May 21.

And I am not surprised the SAT/GPA combination went up - when the University's acceptance rate drops almost by half, I would assume all admitted students' SAT/GPA combos are going to be higher. 

Call me old fashioned, but I guess I share this view more than the view that we should lower the bar just to get top athletes in:
Quote:Tipton graduated from Stanford in 1971 and has worked there for 15 years, so he understands the school's priorities. It gnaws at him when a top prospect who's eager to come to The Farm gets rejected, then joins a Pac-10 rival and burns the Cardinal.
Like many alumni, though, he'd rather see that happen than have the admissions standards lowered. Leland said that message comes across clearly in alumni functions.
"The value Stanford has is that these kids will be admitted as students first," Leland said, "and the minute that stops happening is the minute our faculty will throw us off campus."


RE: Visualized: Stanford’s rise to NCAA title supremacy - BobK - 05-21-2020

I’ll stick with my first person conversations