Irony strikes the South Bay - Printable Version
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Irony strikes the South Bay - OutsiderFan - 07-02-2020
[tweet]https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1278543840367050757[/tweet]
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - Farm93 - 07-02-2020
(07-02-2020, 11:47 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1278543840367050757[/tweet]That's depressing, and yet probably very illustrative for the participants.
In person events with 30+ participants carries a significant COVID risk. It is almost laughable to think that schools can have kids packed into classrooms for multiple months without many children getting COVID, and then giving it to their families.
At least now these administrators will have a much better understanding of the COVID gamble the districts will demand of every family in their area.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - BostonCard - 07-02-2020
I think it is sad that we would consider reopening bars and restaurants but would be against in person schooling. The lasting effects of loss of in person schooling, especially on the most vulnerable, will be felt for years of not decades.
BC
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - oldalum - 07-02-2020
Does the article say what proportion of them were wearing masks at the meeting? And how long the meeting lasted?
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - lex24 - 07-02-2020
There is nothing “laughable” about pushing for schools to reopen with students attending. BC is right. This is an economic and social issue. It’s not a problem for those kids in households with parents that value education and have the economic wherewithal to have the tools in place for their kids to go to school virtually. But for those kids who do not live in such homes, who are poor and don’t have that type of educational foundation at home, it’s a disaster not to be able to attend school. The education gap will grow even further. I suspect it is particularly devastating for those kids in the primary elementary school grades.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - Goose - 07-02-2020
From the number of active cases in SCC and the total population, the probability that nobody in a random selection of 30 people has COVID-19 is 93%. The probability of any randomly selected individual having COVED-19 is 0.238% Naturally, this is based on cases confirmed by testing, so those out there with COVID-19 who are not tested don't show up.
I would argue that the meeting had a pretty good chance of not spreading the infection. However, one has to weigh that against the consequences of having 30 people quarantined for two weeks, best case, and worse if somebody dies. How many meetings have we all attended that were not really necessary, or even useful? How many meetings in this time of COVID-19 work just fine on Zoom? IMHO that is what makes it not worth the risk.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - Farm93 - 07-02-2020
(07-02-2020, 04:38 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I think it is sad that we would consider reopening bars and restaurants but would be against in person schooling. The lasting effects of loss of in person schooling, especially on the most vulnerable, will be felt for years of not decades.For the record, I am strongly opposed to bars and restaurants opening too. Would never have prioritized that over getting our nation's COVID rate down to a level to open schools safely in August. The USA should have had children's education readiness as the goal all along. A lot of people would have done a lot more if they understood it was all for their kids' education. Oh well, lost opportunity there - Next pandemic.
BC
There is no way the USA can start the school year with new cases at the rate we have today. Those vectors will go to schools and everything will explode.
One big catch is the USA has a known problem in the education system. Far too many teachers are very close to retirement age and school districts do not have younger teachers ready to replace them. As a nation we can't afford to lose those experienced teachers. In many school districts playing with COVID could mean creating a workforce shortage that would take years to resolve.
"Almost laughable" was not to say this is funny or laughable.
Let's use troubling, if you will. It is troubling that the USA's parents would think schools can open in ~40 days with the existing level of awareness and planning on COVID. One of our most precious resources right now are all of those 50+ year-old teachers. To put their lives at risk knowing full well this in person experiment will all fall apart in October or November is bonkers to me.
Top national universities like USC and the CSU system are realizing in-person won't work yet despite all of their resources.
Public schools in the USA, many without funds for books, erasers or tissue paper, will navigate through COVID? Yeah, right.
The only way public schools will stay open for more than a few days will be if COVID cases are a tiny fraction of their current rate.
If we have bars, restaurants, hair salons, and gyms today we simply can't have schools in August because the USA case rate at the start of the school year will be too high.
COVID may not allow us to have either set, but COVID won't allow us to have both IMHO.
None of it is laughable....think black comedy here. It is so depressing you almost have to laugh to accept that this current situation is the best the USA can do when dozens of other countries have been so much more successful.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - Nan3cy - 07-02-2020
(07-02-2020, 05:30 PM)Goose Wrote: From the number of active cases in SCC and the total population, the probability that nobody in a random selection of 30 people has COVID-19 is 93%. The probability of any randomly selected individual having COVED-19 is 0.238% Naturally, this is based on cases confirmed by testing, so those out there with COVID-19 who are not tested don't show up.
I would argue that the meeting had a pretty good chance of not spreading the infection. However, one has to weigh that against the consequences of having 30 people quarantined for two weeks, best case, and worse if somebody dies. How many meetings have we all attended that were not really necessary, or even useful? How many meetings in this time of COVID-19 work just fine on Zoom? IMHO that is what makes it not worth the risk.
What if the estimates I’ve read — that there are 10 cases of C-19 for every one that’s been diagnosed — are correct? That would reduce the probability of no one out of a group of 30 having the virus to 49%.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - Goose - 07-03-2020
(07-02-2020, 10:13 PM)Nan3cy Wrote:It is undoubtedly true that there number of cases in the population is larger than the number of cases confirmed by testing. How much bigger is largely unknown. It is difficult to use random testing to measure this value because the incidence is so low a very large number of people must be tested. There are also problems with interpreting antibody testing as have been discussed here. So it is an issue, but hard to quantify.(07-02-2020, 05:30 PM)Goose Wrote: From the number of active cases in SCC and the total population, the probability that nobody in a random selection of 30 people has COVID-19 is 93%. The probability of any randomly selected individual having COVED-19 is 0.238% Naturally, this is based on cases confirmed by testing, so those out there with COVID-19 who are not tested don't show up.
I would argue that the meeting had a pretty good chance of not spreading the infection. However, one has to weigh that against the consequences of having 30 people quarantined for two weeks, best case, and worse if somebody dies. How many meetings have we all attended that were not really necessary, or even useful? How many meetings in this time of COVID-19 work just fine on Zoom? IMHO that is what makes it not worth the risk.
What if the estimates I’ve read — that there are 10 cases of C-19 for every one that’s been diagnosed — are correct? That would reduce the probability of no one out of a group of 30 having the virus to 49%.
RE: Irony strikes the South Bay - JustAnotherFan - 07-03-2020
Schools can do so much more by simply meeting outdoors. It's not unprecedented. It may be hard. Logistically challenging. But not nearly as hard or logistically challenging as getting all kids to keep 6' apart and wear masks all day inside schoolhouses.
Again: http://www.abrome.com/blog/2020/6/10/abrome-releases-contingency-plans-to-reopen-amid-covid-19