The third wave - Printable Version
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The third wave - BostonCard - 10-15-2020
Today 64,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported, the most since the end of July. This third wave is hitting states that are in the midwest, which weren't hit as hard in the first wave (New York area) or the second wave (Sun belt, especially Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California). Wisconsin and Missouri each reported over 3000 cases. Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Tennessee are each around 2,000 new cases. Rt is estimated to be above 1 in all but 10 states (https://rt.live/). Deaths remain below 1000, but are no longer declining, and I expect them to start rising again in the next couple weeks.
Buckle up; it's going to be a rough winter.
BC
RE: The third wave - dabigv13 - 10-15-2020
SoCal hospitalizations had been on a nice decline but they seem to have hit a nadir and may be increasing. ICU usage seems to be hitting a nadir too, but haven't started to rise. My hospital is still in as good shape as we've been in since the very beginning luckily.
RE: The third wave - M T - 10-16-2020
(10-15-2020, 04:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Today 64,000 new cases of COVID-19 were reported, the most since the end of July. This third wave is hitting states that are in the midwest, which weren't hit as hard in the first wave (New York area) or the second wave (Sun belt, especially Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California). Wisconsin and Missouri each reported over 3000 cases. Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Tennessee are each around 2,000 new cases. Rt is estimated to be above 1 in all but 10 states (https://rt.live/). Deaths remain below 1000, but are no longer declining, and I expect them to start rising again in the next couple weeks.
Buckle up; it's going to be a rough winter.
BC
We're seeing the smoke; it would be good to track down the fire causing it.
Let's see, what was it that changed a few weeks ago? Was it that college football resumed, or that school restarted? Nah, it must be that people stopped wearing masks. Or maybe it was the political rallies.
RE: The third wave - BostonCard - 10-16-2020
My hypothesis is that it is that colder weather is pushing people indoors, where the virus is spreading more efficiently. If you look at the regional pattern of infections, the first wave hit in the New York area, where there was the greatest travel to and from Europe, where the pandemic was raging. The second wave hit sun belt states (Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) in the summer, where warm temperatures pushed people indoors. The third wave is concentrated in the Midwest and Mountain West (Wyoming, Alaska, Montana), which are areas that were spared previously and where dropping temperatures have pushed people indoors.
BC
RE: The third wave - teejers1 - 10-16-2020
(10-16-2020, 07:35 AM)BostonCard Wrote: My hypothesis is that it is that colder weather is pushing people indoors, where the virus is spreading more efficiently. If you look at the regional pattern of infections, the first wave hit in the New York area, where there was the greatest travel to and from Europe, where the pandemic was raging. The second wave hit sun belt states (Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) in the summer, where warm temperatures pushed people indoors. The third wave is concentrated in the Midwest and Mountain West (Wyoming, Alaska, Montana), which are areas that were spared previously and where dropping temperatures have pushed people indoors.
BC
My theory: states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity. And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever). States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things). This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other. Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).
And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.
It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections. But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).
Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal. If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.
RE: The third wave - oregontim - 10-16-2020
(10-16-2020, 12:11 AM)M T Wrote: We're seeing the smoke; it would be good to track down the fire causing it.
Let's see, what was it that changed a few weeks ago? Was it that college football resumed, or that school restarted? Nah, it must be that people stopped wearing masks. Or maybe it was the political rallies.
... or all of the above? The real world rarely fits into simple one cause = effect.
RE: The third wave - BostonCard - 10-16-2020
(10-16-2020, 09:57 AM)teejers1 Wrote: My theory: states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity. And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever). States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things). This is also why I think it possible that, with no vaccine, the numbers of many countries will trend toward each other. Of course, as medical treatment (even without a vaccine) improves, then fatalities should go down over time (hopefully, anyway).
And again, increase in cases where colleges/universities have welcomed kids back is not surprising - and imo, not particularly alarming.
It could well be that more indoor ==> more infections. But a lot of us are spending an inordinate amount of time indoors now . . . (or maybe it's not inordinate, but just seems that way!).
Dabig, appreciate your updates from SoCal. If hospitalizations have bottomed out and are rising, well that is concerning.
Thew New York Hassidic community is trying to disprove your hypothesis. New cases in New York are still well below the peak in April, but are about twice the trough. Texas is well off its summer peak, but cases are rising again, having never fallen to the pre-summer levels. Montana had an almost step-jump in the summer, and had cases remained elevated for a while, then has had another big step-jump since then. Currently, Rt is estimated to be above 1 in 41/51 states + DC (all but MS, DE, ME, TX, WA, OR, CA, GA, DC, WV)
I should have been clearer; it's not being indoors per se, it's being indoors in public. If you stay isolated in your house, obviously whether you are indoors or outdoors doesn't matter. But if you are out eating at a restaurant, then it matters if you had dinner in the outdoor tables set up on the sidewalk when the weather was nice, or are forced to eat indoors because the weather has turned south. Likewise, there's a difference between spending your Saturday playing golf outdoors (very low risk) versus going to a movie theater (moderate risk).
BC
RE: The third wave - M T - 10-16-2020
(10-16-2020, 07:35 AM)BostonCard Wrote: My hypothesis is that it is that colder weather is pushing people indoors, ... The second wave hit sun belt states (Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) in the summer, where warm temperatures pushed people indoors. The third wave is concentrated in the Midwest and Mountain West (Wyoming, Alaska, Montana), which are areas that were spared previously and where dropping temperatures have pushed people indoors.
A reminder to those of us in California: There is more to weather than temperature! Precipitation of various kinds may dominate in other areas. And, this year, for California, air quality was perhaps a major factor.
I'm not even sure whether good weather means fewer cases or more. If I were to go to the beach because the weather is great, I'm also more likely to go to the store to stock up on suntan lotion or to buy a new beach chair, and I'm also more liable to eat somewhere other than home. I'm also likely to buy gas, and use bathrooms shared with hundreds of other sun-seekers.
(10-16-2020, 10:44 AM)BostonCard Wrote: ...because the weather has turned south.An unfortunate description.
I don't believe the temperatures are causing the changes for what you're calling the 3rd wave. Today's infections are from exposures in the first week of Oct. The fact that one can call it a wave indicates the difference has been happening for maybe 3 weeks. Look at September's average temperature chart. Neither too cold nor too hot.
I feel more comfortable talking about Santa Clara County because I know it much better. We are not yet down to pre-summer levels. As SCC graph shows it, the exponential growth started at the beginning of June and climbed for about 6 weeks before it began to decline. In SCC, temperature is usually the main factor (but the SiP order was probably the major factor, and was pretty constant all summer). Weather was hotter during the decline in August than it was in June/July.
(10-16-2020, 09:57 AM)teejers1 Wrote: My theory: states hit hard early tend NOT to get hit that hard subsequently, perhaps as a result of vulnerable communities being tagged already, or some form of immunity. And in all events, the second "wave" isn't nearly as deadly as the first (again, maybe vulnerable communities have already taken prior brunt or virus less damaging or whatever). States/places relatively unscathed to date, of course, are subject to first-wave damage seen in other places (though perhaps better medical treatment knowledge or less damaging virus may cap things).
I agree with the concept that those states that had a bad time do well for a while. I disagree with cause, and with "not nearly as deadly as the first" if you mean in raw numbers. But as % deaths, yes.
I believe when people see a lot of bad stuff going on around them, they react. The more they see, the more they respond. I think the citizens of NY/NJ probably kept to themselves and better at social distancing really well...for a while, because they saw how bad it could be.
I think the generic second wave happens because we all grow tired of the newly-adopted behaviors, and grow lax. We think we know what is OK because, well, we've been doing it and we didn't get sick. I don't know that this explains why the 2nd wave often is more cases than the first. Perhaps also involved is index cases being more universally spread in the community so more are exposed.
I admit to thinking of grabbing this opportunity to go visit my grandkids. After all, I've gone 6 months of confinement and haven't gotten sick yet. But then my analytical mind kicks in and looks at the raw number of cases and realizes that I'm MORE likely to be exposed now than I would have been March through June.
The second wave in SCC totally dwarfed the first wave. We're not yet down to the first wave about 3 months after the 2nd peak. So, in terms of people getting infected, the numbers seem worse (but that may be a failure to accurately measure the 1st wave). I think it is clear that the 2nd wave resulted in more deaths than the first in absolute numbers (deaths and deaths per capita) but I think the deaths per case was probably less.
RE: The third wave - magnus - 10-21-2020
FT does an analysis of this autumn wave vs the spring wave. And why it seems this autumn wave is less lethal.
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1318919534103887875?s=20[/tweet]
[Tweet]https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1318919567700361216?s=20[/tweet]
RE: The third wave - dabigv13 - 10-21-2020
SoCal hospitalizations continue to tick up, and now ICU and vent usage are slowly but consistently increasing as well. Still as good as it's been since the beginning of the pandemic, but California seems to be riding the third wave like the rest of the country.
It's a more gradual slope. Let's hope we don't come close to the peaks of April or July.
RE: The third wave - magnus - 10-21-2020
(10-21-2020, 12:48 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: It's a more gradual slope. Let's hope we don't come close to the peaks of April or July.
I'm thinking, with the slower rate of increase, it'll give social media and the MSM more time to sound the alarm before we get to the previous highs.
RE: The third wave - BostonCard - 10-21-2020
Not a good day today. First day with over 1200 deaths (per Worldometer) since Sept. 15. The seven-day moving average has been ticking up as well. It appears deaths are starting to catch up to the surge in cases, which incidentally broke 60,000 four times over the last seven days.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
BC
By the way, this is a nice set of analyses:
https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/details.php?documentID=State%20Comparison%20per%20Capita&documentName=Compare%20States%20per%20100%20k%20population&eventID=8001&category_id=COVID-19%20Testing&category=COVID-19%20Testing&objectID=261
You can look at where the hot spots are this wave, and the highest number of positive tests per capita are in the Dakotas, Wisconsin, Montana, Idaho, Nebraska, and Wyoming. California looks OK at 45th (57.4 new cases/100,000).
Similar pattern if you look at percent positive tests:
https://www.msightly.com/covid-19/details.php?documentID=Positivity%20%%20in%20US&documentName=Positivity%20%%20in%20US&eventID=8001&category_id=COVID-19%20Testing&category=COVID-19%20Testing&objectID=241
BC