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Comparing equivalent games - washingtonismoney - 10-16-2011

I thought it would be interesting, as far as possible, to compare our 2011 performance with the performance against the same opponent in 2010. Listed, by chronological order (of 2011 games):

Arizona (Away 2011, Home 2010).

2011: 44-14, Stanford yards/play 8.1, Arizona yards/play 5.3
2010: 42-17, Stanford yards/play 6.6, Arizona yards/play 5.4

UCLA (Home 2011, Away 2010)
2011: 45-19, Stanford yards/play 6.4, UCLA yards/play 5.5
2010: 35-0, Stanford yards/play 4.9, UCLA yards/play 4.3

Washington State (Away 2011, Home 2010):
2011: 44-14, Stanford yards/play 7.2, Washington State yards/play 3.8
2010: 38-28, Stanford yards/play 5.85, Washington State yards/play 7.1

Edit:
Also wanted to compare the totals to the season averages of each team. So if Wazzu averages 5 yards/play both on offense and defense, Stanford would be +2.2 on offense and +1.2 on defense. Here's what the real numbers on each:

Arizona:
2011: +1.2 on offense, +1 on defense
2010: +1.7 on offense, +.6 on defense

UCLA:
2011:+.5 on offense, +.8 on defense
2010: +.3 on offense, +.4 on defense

Wazzu:
2011: +1.4 on offense, +2.4 on defense
2010: -.9 on offense, -2.1 on defense

Re: Comparing equivalent games - Farm93 - 10-16-2011

No big shock.  The results in 2011 are remarkably similar to 2010.  And about 6 games into the 2010 season, Stanford skeptics were everywhere.  Just as we have this year.

In an era when every successful team seems to be loaded with zippy quick players all over the field, it is hard to compare Stanford to that model.  But Stanford 2010 was OK, so this set of comparables implies that Stanford 2011 is probably as strong too.  At BCS #8, Stanford will need a lot of losing to happen to those programs that dazzle with speed because apparently Stanford's power running, TE TDs and team D just doesn't capture the imagination of voters fixated on that speed. 

Re: Comparing equivalent games - washingtonismoney - 10-16-2011

(10-16-2011, 06:54 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:No big shock.  The results in 2011 are remarkably similar to 2010. 

I mean, if you put weights on these things...the defense looks somewhat similar (Arizona basically the same, UCLA worse, Wazzu much better) but the offense looks dramatically better. It's a 1.4 yards/play difference at least in each game. That's gigantic--applied last year, it would turn Oregon into the 59ers or vice versa. (This year, it would wedge Oregon between UCLA and Oregon State.)

Re: Comparing equivalent games - Farm93 - 10-16-2011

I am just looking at the final scores.  Which is all that really matters.

FWIW - Stanford clearly has not let Luck run free as none of the games have been close.  That is different than last year and seems intentional.  It will be interesting to see if Luck will get to run if Stanford is playing a top team and/or the game really is close in the second half.  Not close like defined on this board, but CLOSE.  As in close enough for an opponent to win if they could stop a Stanford drive or two in the 4th quarter.

I guess we will see in the next few games.