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UW pauses football activities - SamuelMcF - 12-09-2020

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNRittenberg/status/1336696672349347841[/tweet]

Just days after playing us. Hoping this doesn't affect our guys.

RE: UW pauses football activities - donkey687 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNRittenberg/status/1336696672349347841[/tweet]

Just days after playing us. Hoping this doesn't affect our guys.
Scenario: UW can't play this week or next.  Oregon finds another opponent this weekend and loses. Stanford beats OSU. Stanford goes to Pac 12 Championship game and wins. = Stanford Conference Champions and BCS bowl!  So you are saying there is a chance?

RE: UW pauses football activities - CardinalSagehen - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:29 AM)donkey687 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNRittenberg/status/1336696672349347841[/tweet]

Just days after playing us. Hoping this doesn't affect our guys.
Scenario: UW can't play this week or next.  Oregon finds another opponent this weekend and loses. Stanford beats OSU. Stanford goes to Pac 12 Championship game and wins. = Stanford Conference Champions and BCS bowl!  So you are saying there is a chance?

There are no other available Pac 12 opponents this weekend, as of now, so that probably doesn’t work. I also don’t think Oregon would have any motivation to move heaven and earth to arrange that game. Another scenario would be (or would have been) Washington playing and winning this game against Oregon and then having to sit out the CCG, or Oregon backing into the CCG and then having to sit it out.  Of course, nobody is rooting for either of those situations, but I think they’re both more likely than Oregon finding another Pac 12 opponent this week and playing another game.  (Also bear in mind that Oregon hasn’t had any games canceled, so they already have more wins and wouldn’t feel obligated to prove anything.)

If Colorado and USC remain undefeated, and Oregon-Washington doesn’t happen, Colorado’s case for the PAC-12 to change the rules and put them in the CCG might be strengthened. I disagree with the principle of changing the format midstream, but I think it could happen if the North loses its “play-in” game.

RE: UW pauses football activities - JustAnotherFan - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:55 AM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:29 AM)donkey687 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNRittenberg/status/1336696672349347841[/tweet]

Just days after playing us. Hoping this doesn't affect our guys.
Scenario: UW can't play this week or next.  Oregon finds another opponent this weekend and loses. Stanford beats OSU. Stanford goes to Pac 12 Championship game and wins. = Stanford Conference Champions and BCS bowl!  So you are saying there is a chance?

There are no other available Pac 12 opponents this weekend, as of now, so that probably doesn’t work. I also don’t think Oregon would have any motivation to move heaven and earth to arrange that game. Another scenario would be (or would have been) Washington playing and winning this game against Oregon and then having to sit out the CCG, or Oregon backing into the CCG and then having to sit it out.  Of course, nobody is rooting for either of those situations, but I think they’re both more likely than Oregon finding another Pac 12 opponent this week and playing another game.  (Also bear in mind that Oregon hasn’t had any games canceled, so they already have more wins and wouldn’t feel obligated to prove anything.)

If Colorado and USC remain undefeated, and Oregon-Washington doesn’t happen, Colorado’s case for the PAC-12 to change the rules and put them in the CCG might be strengthened. I disagree with the principle of changing the format midstream, but I think it could happen if the North loses its “play-in” game.

If USC and Colorado are both undefeated they should definitely shift the rules so those two can play in the CCG. And they'll be able to follow the lead of the BigTen.

RE: UW pauses football activities - Papa John - 12-09-2020

In hindsight, the Pac-12 should have done away with the division format for deciding the participants in the conference championship game. I imagine that UO fans are apoplectic about this, since Saturday's game with UW is supposed to determine the North champion. But if UW-UO is canceled and CU beats Utah and USC beats UCLA, then I think the Pac-12 needs to change its rules--it looks like the B1G will do the same for tOSU's sake--and have CU and USC play for the conference championship. I'm guessing that the conference leaders are praying that either Utah or UCLA (but not both) wins so that they don't have to make that call.

RE: UW pauses football activities - M T - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 10:17 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:  Just days after playing us. Hoping this doesn't affect our guys.

If they've got positive test results of players on Wednesday morning of players in the game on Saturday, it is a bit of a toss-up as to whether they were infectious on Saturday, if this is the result of the first test after the game.   If this is their second test after the game, then they presumably were negative on the first test.

If this is the first test, then those players likely became infectious between their previous test (say, Friday) and Tuesday night.  So, roughly a 20% chance they were infectious on Saturday.

I don't know what the testing protocols are in UW's region, but SCC requires a test within 48 hours before a contest (and 3 tests a week), but does not require a test within 48 hours after a contest (I've suggested they require that as part of their 3 tests a week).  If you get a negative test 48 hours after a contest, then you can be pretty sure you were not infectious during the contest.  If you get a positive test 48 hours after a contest, then some of your opponents likely should be considered a close contact and should undergo quarantine.  If you don't test for 72 or 96 hours, you get into this murky zone.

If I were part of Stanford's FB program, I'd at least provisionally quarantine players who played opposite any positive-test players on the other team.  It may not be too late to stop some other teammates from being close contacts of anyone who may have gotten infected - it depends upon when they show up with symptoms or get a positive test.

RE: UW pauses football activities - Papa John - 12-09-2020

Won't Stanford be going by Corvallis rules, not SCC?

RE: UW pauses football activities - donkey687 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 03:18 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Won't Stanford be going by Corvallis rules, not SCC?

Yes, this team is no longer based or playing in SCC so SCC restrictions are not relevant.  I think our testing will take care of the infection issue. If Saturday's exposure to a contagious person at UW led to infection of a Stanford player, the tests would be showing it right about now. By Friday, we should be in the clear if no one is positive in the daily testing. I would think the likelihood of exposure from an outdoor football game would be pretty low. Stanfordl's five starting OL and 3 starting DL would be greatest risk if an OL or DL from UW were infected but still not high probability in my opinion.

RE: UW pauses football activities - bbm233 - 12-09-2020

It's pretty clear that UW had/has covid in their WR room. That has to be the least likely position to pose transmission risk to an opposing team.

RE: UW pauses football activities - French Rage - 12-09-2020

Note to Stanford: schedule Indiana in football. Apparently all you have to do to get the CFP is beat Indiana.

RE: UW pauses football activities - donkey687 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 04:27 PM)French Rage Wrote:  Note to Stanford: schedule Indiana in football. Apparently all you have to do to get the CFP is beat Indiana.
Indiana has not beaten a team with a winning record by the way. Their wins over Michigan and Penn State aren't much to brag about this season. Wisconsin is 2-2 is their best win.

RE: UW pauses football activities - BostonCard - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 03:55 PM)bbm233 Wrote:  It's pretty clear that UW had/has covid in their WR room. That has to be the least likely position to pose transmission risk to an opposing team.

Was that a subtle dig at our defensive backs?

BC

RE: UW pauses football activities - Farm93 - 12-09-2020

Speculating on COVID19 is so depressing.

I have stopped watching ESPN because they imply those conferences that were looking out for player health, coach health, campus health and community health were foolish, reckless, irresponsible, etc.   Sigh...

Stanford Football is no longer in their campus bubble, so it is really not hard to imagine Stanford will get swept up in community spread too.  Same applies for the WBB team staying in NV with its COVID rates.

However, at this point who knows what happens in the Pac-12 CG.   If UW is not available, why do we assume Pac-12 North #2 or #3 would be the next selection?   If USC and Colorado are both undefeated it might make sense to let them play in the CG if Pac-12 North #1 is unavailable.  It would be tough for undefeated Colorado to not have a chance to be conference champs because USC had COVID tracing issues and didn't play Colorado.

RE: UW pauses football activities - teejers1 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 06:13 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  However, at this point who knows what happens in the Pac-12 CG.   If UW is not available, why do we assume Pac-12 North #2 or #3 would be the next selection?   If USC and Colorado are both undefeated it might make sense to let them play in the CG if Pac-12 North #1 is unavailable.  It would be tough for undefeated Colorado to not have a chance to be conference champs because USC had COVID tracing issues and didn't play Colorado.

I think even Larry would figure this out.

The better question is should UW get to play in the CCG, even if it is available?  

There are no meaningful rules this season (beyond Covid protocols), so the N/S distinction means nothing.  
If there are two undefeated teams in conference, then let them have at it, geography be damned.  Neither UW (who lost to Stanford) nor anyone else in the north would be in much of a position to complain.

RE: UW pauses football activities - OutsiderFan - 12-09-2020

I think Cal should be put in the Conference Championship Game to give them a shot at getting in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 70 years.

Makes as mush sense as anything else happening this "season."

RE: UW pauses football activities - Farm93 - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 08:02 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I think Cal should be put in the Conference Championship Game to give them a shot at getting in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 70 years.

Makes as mush sense as anything else happening this "season."
Cal vs Arizona would be great CG theatre as one group would actually be thrilled even if during a pandemic.   However, even then the winner would not go to the Rose Bowl this year.
The Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal venue, at least at the moment it looks like the Pac-12 champ would be going to the Fiesta Bowl.

RE: UW pauses football activities - Goose - 12-09-2020

(12-09-2020, 08:57 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  Cal vs Arizona would be great CG theatre as one group would actually be thrilled even if during a pandemic.
Cheez-It Bowl take 2

RE: UW pauses football activities - winflop - 12-10-2020

(12-09-2020, 08:57 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  
(12-09-2020, 08:02 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I think Cal should be put in the Conference Championship Game to give them a shot at getting in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 70 years.

Makes as mush sense as anything else happening this "season."
Cal vs Arizona would be great CG theatre as one group would actually be thrilled even if during a pandemic.   However, even then the winner would not go to the Rose Bowl this year.
The Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal venue, at least at the moment it looks like the Pac-12 champ would be going to the Fiesta Bowl.

It would be so Cal for them to win their first conference championship in 60+ years and still not play in the Rose Bowl.

RE: UW pauses football activities - JustAnotherFan - 12-10-2020

Update: BigTen officially changed the rules. Ohio State is in the championship game.

RE: UW pauses football activities - CardinalSagehen - 12-10-2020

(12-10-2020, 05:31 AM)JustAnotherFan Wrote:  Update: BigTen officially changed the rules. Ohio State is in the championship game.

Hah! Well, the Pac-12 likes to follow the Big Ten, so we'll see what happens!

FWIW, I think the Big Ten's decision was a little easier.  They lowered the minimum number of games to qualify, but they didn't do away with the whole East/West concept.  Even in an alternate universe where Michigan might have beaten OSU this weekend, OSU would have made the Big Ten CCG by tie-breaker over Indiana based on their head-to-head result.

https://bigten.org/standings.aspx?path=football

I acknowledge Colorado's gripe, but personally I think it's wrong to change the rules of the game midstream.  There was a year where Stanford and Oregon were both 8-1 and clearly way more deserving than anyone in the South, but 6-3 UCLA got in.  You could say it's because Stanford beat Oregon that year and everyone in the division got to play everyone, but as I recall, Stanford had just beaten UCLA that year, too. (tbt Drew Terrell's catch in the rain to put us on top - loved that CCG at Stanford Stadium, probably just because it was a small but fervent crowd in the rain...)

I think the "Colorado is undefeated" argument is fairly hollow, too.  Undefeated is a sort of arbitrary concept, especially when there has only been 5 games.  Coastal Carolina and others are undefeated, too.

You could also make the point, if you were Oregon, that they pulverized us and Colorado only edged us out.  (It would be a bad point if someone actually watched the games and knew the circumstances, but this would not stop Duck Fan from making it...)

And let's not forget, the schedule is unbalanced and unfair every single year, in that the cross-division matchups are unbalanced.  This actually works against Stanford most of the time in terms of strength of schedule because we draw USC and UCLA every year. (Ironically, this year it was unfair because we drew Colorado, which figured to be the easiest team to beat in the South but turned out to be one of the two best teams.  Had we drawn Arizona or if the Colorado game had been pre-empted by Covid, we'd be thinking about the CCG now.  I'm not saying we'd deserve it, either, but just making the point that schedules are never completely fair.)  

I can't tell you how many girls soccer tournaments I've attended where my daughter's team seemed to deserve a spot in the finals, but some team in the other bracket had a much easier draw against teams that we always beat. That's just the way it goes. The 10 year-old girls ultimately understand. 

My point is that the rules are never completely fair and you just have to play by the pre-established rules.  If it meant the difference between a CFP berth and no berth (as in the Ohio State case), then maybe I'd be on-board for the sake of pragmatism, but in nearly all cases, in sports as in life, the rules are the rules.

I also feel that there's a non-zero chance that either USC or Colorado will lose this weekend... in fact, I'm expecting it!