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2012: The Offense - iyengar06 - 10-21-2011

It's never too early to look ahead to next year (and the impending advent of the post-Luck era), so here's a look at next year's offense. Obviously the biggest question mark is at the QB position, but other big questions exist. What on earth are we going to do at WR? Who steps in if either or both of Martin/DeCastro leave? Here's how I see the offense shaping up, based on what we know now. Obviously plenty will change by next year, so all the usual disclaimers apply.

QB - Nottingham (Picazo and Nunes have been the other options at backup this year, but my dark-horse candidate to unseat The Sheriff is Kevin Hogan. I thought he looked awesome in the final scrimmage before the season started.)

You could argue that even if Nottingham ends up being an above-average QB, we face the biggest loss for any team at any position going into 2012. That's not a knock on anyone; Andrew Luck is just a tough act to follow, obviously.

RB - Taylor (Wilkerson, Gaffney)

An embarrassment of riches. The three-headed monster of Taylor, Wilkerson, and Gaffney will be back - unless Gaffney leaves for baseball, in which case one of Seale, Wright, and Young becomes the new 3rd back. I wonder whether Seale stays at RB; there's been speculation of a move to DB (a la Delano/Usua) in the past.

FB - Hewitt (Meinken, Ward)

No issues here.

WR - Montgomery
WR - Terrell

Basically a vacuum in terms of experience at this position. Presumably/hopefully Montgomery improves enough to become a starter, because I'm seeing less and less reason to be optimistic that JRP and Jemari Roberts are going to figure it out and become legitimate Pac-12 starters. If you're one of the incoming freshmen, you've gotta love the opportunity to earn playing time at this position.

TE - Ertz (Toilolo, Dudchock)

Even without Fleener, this should be the best TE unit in the country. Personally I think Ertz is a little bit better of an all-around TE than Fleener is, and Toilolo obviously would be starting at most BCS programs.

Offensive Line:

LT - Fleming/Yankey
LG - Danser
C - Schwartzstein
RG - Underwood, or perhaps Wilkes (hopefully DeCastro)
RT - Yankey/Fleming

Yankey's listed as a tackle and is already starting at guard, so I'm guessing next year Yankey slides to LT and Danser is slotted at LG, where he was slated to start until about a week before this season started. Fleming will remain as the other tackle, although he could move to LT, I suppose. If DeCastro leaves, I'm guessing Underwood starts at RG, but if DeCastro comes back, that's 4 returning starters from a very solid O-Line. They should do a really nice job helping Nottingham stay upright and comfortable.

On top of the starters, I think we'll have some quality depth in guys like Bonnell, Austin, Reihner, and Shuler.

***

All in all, I think a solid offense that should be similar to this year's group, minus the best player in the country. If Nottingham has anyone at all to throw the ball to on the outside, we should be able to score 30 points in most games, I'd think. Maybe not 40+ all the time, but enough to outscore most teams, given how nicely our defense for 2012 is shaping up.

Thoughts?


Re: 2012: The Offense - StannyBoy - 10-21-2011

no way Gaffney is back - he would have gone in the first round of the MLB draft after his sophomore year. And I can really see Yankey staying at OG and having Fleming and Austin as the OTs. I heard Nick Davidson was admitted and I think Kyle Murphy gets admitted as well so we should have some freshman that can be back-ups. Andrus Peat is also taking an official visit but I'm not sure he gets admitted. I also think we have a good shot at Josh Garnett although I see him as a OG.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Rando - 10-21-2011

You don't think Gaffney wants his degree? I mean, playing minor league baseball isn't a lot of money. I'm not sure is minor leaguers can get paid a lot.

Sorry for my lack of knowledge on the subject.

Our offense in 2012 should be fine. Nottingham has the more impressive HS stats than any QB on our roster. Well, I haven't looked at Luck's HS stats, but we'll see.

Re: 2012: The Offense - StannyBoy - 10-21-2011

(10-21-2011, 01:06 PM)Rando90 link Wrote:You don't think Gaffney wants his degree? I mean, playing minor league baseball isn't a lot of money. I'm not sure is minor leaguers can get paid a lot.

Sorry for my lack of knowledge on the subject.

Our offense in 2012 should be fine. Nottingham has the more impressive HS stats than any QB on our roster. Well, I haven't looked at Luck's HS stats, but we'll see.

I'm sure he does but his future sport is baseball and not football. He is guaranteed a million dollar signing bonus if he goes late first round. And if he really blows up he'll go top ten which would bring a signing bonus of 2-8 million.

Re: 2012: The Offense - fullmetal - 10-21-2011

I think Gaffney should leave if he has a good shot at the MLB draft (and he will).  I hope he finishes his degree some day.  That leaves the third string up to Wright, Young, or Seale in no particular order.  I haven't heard anything that distinguishes one from the rest.

I still hope JRP turns on the light switch this season.  I don't know if our current WR corps status speaks to Harbaugh's (or the recruiting staff's) efficacy at recruiting for that position.  Montgomery earned a lot of goodwill (and playing time?) after that special teams TD last week, that's for sure. 

I wish I had time to go over film and grade Hewitt.  The lack of an early, effective run game seems to indicate that the run-blocking hasn't maintained from last season, and I don't know how much of it is the drop-off from Marecic to Hewitt.  I'm guessing it's more the OL drop-off...losing an All-American center will do that to you.

Re: 2012: The Offense - FarmBoy - 10-21-2011

I've also heard rumblings that Taylor would go at the end of this year. He's NFL eligible and you gotta believe he's putting up the best numbers of his career this year. Unlikely to improve with the step down at QB. RB will be one of the bigger holes, along with WR, that the offense needs to overcome.

I've said it before, Gaffney is crazy for messing with his MLB future to moonlight as a Wildcat specialist on the football team. And playing special teams also? I'm sure he loves the game, but someone should be counseling him a little better than that.

Re: 2012: The Offense - washingtonismoney - 10-21-2011

Is the running game that much worse? The key here is to ignore Luck and Loukas rushing numbers--last year, they averaged 8.2 and 8.3 yards per rush, respectively--and focus on running back rushing.

2010 RB YPC: 4.83.
2011 RB YPC: 5.27.

Seems hard for me to imagine your running backs can gain nearly a half-yard more per carry with worse run blocking.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Nan3cy - 10-21-2011

Re: Gaffney -- Mike Marquess encourages (strongly) his baseball players to load up on units so they're near to graduation when/if they are drafted after their junior year. John Mayberry Jr. went pro after three years but graduated with his class because he needed only one quarter's worth of units to graduate after his junior year. He got the units in the fall after the end of his rookie year in pro baseball.

Obviously, taking a bunch of units is more difficult for a two-sport athlete, but maybe he took summer school, which would help. It wouldn't surprise me if Gaffney needed only one or two more quarters to graduate as of the end of next spring quarter.


Re: 2012: The Offense - StannyBoy - 10-21-2011

I agree that Taylor is also probably gone. His stock won't be any higher next year and RBs have such short careers in the NFL. And I agree Gaffney is nuts for playing football. But I'm sure he loves it and wouldn't have it any other way.

Re: 2012: The Offense - washingtonismoney - 10-21-2011

I'm also not sure it's so obvious that Taylor should leave at the end of this year. Statistically speaking, he'll have a pair of 1100 yard seasons (just speculating a bit there), which is nice but not exceptional. Presumably in 2012 he would be the feature back of an offense that will want to run the ball much more.

Re: 2012: The Offense - iyengar06 - 10-21-2011

I'm not sold on Taylor leaving either, but even if he and Gaffney both go, you're looking at Wilkerson, Seale, Young, and Wright. We'll be fine at RB - far from a problem area for the offense.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Rando - 10-21-2011

Don't forget about Cummings.

And maybe, MAYBE BSJ.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Rando - 10-21-2011

A lot of non-Stanford fans do think Luck is crazy.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Rando - 10-21-2011

Point is, people in general think Luck is crazy. Us fans are just happy he's playing for us this year.

Gaffney isn't as valuable to us as Luck is. So we aren't blinded by talent. And since we're not, some of us think he is crazy, while Luck is sane.

Re: 2012: The Offense - yvonne - 10-21-2011

I think most Stanford fans have a realistic expectation that athletes stay long enough to get their degrees. That desire to obtain a degree is part of what sets Stanford athletes apart. I can remember only one football player, Bob Whitfield, leaving early. Several basketball players have left early.

Re: 2012: The Offense - iyengar06 - 10-21-2011

I honestly was surprised to see people thinking Taylor will leave after this year. However, after thinking about it, I think he's a bit more of an NFL prospect than people (including myself) might initially think.

He doesn't have the breakaway speed that NFL teams covet, so I can't see him being a high-round pick (say rounds 1-3), but he does have a lot of assets that many college running backs lack.
Add to that the fact that he is obviously a talented, strong, aggressive runner and you have a guy who could be draft-worthy. I'd be curious to see if we have any mock draft type of people here. Where might Taylor wind up if he were to declare for the draft?

Ultimately, as far as Stanford 2012 is concerned, it doesn't matter too much whether Taylor stays. Obviously you'd love to have him back, but we're deeper at RB than at any other position. Personally, I'm fully on the Anthony Wilkerson bandwagon and would love to see him start.

Re: 2012: The Offense - fullmetal - 10-21-2011

Taylor will probably get a lot of advice from people after the bowl game in determining whether he would be a high draft round pick.  If so, there's a change that he leaves.  If not, then so be it.  Let's hope he does better than Thomas Keiser if he does leave.

Re: 2012: The Offense - FarmBoy - 10-21-2011

My view on the Luck vs. Gaffney thing is that career ending injuries seem a lot less prevalent in the QB position than RB. Look at Sam Bradford. He missed his senior year with a devastating shoulder injury and was still #1 in the draft. But a RB blowing out their ACL or knee could be catastrophic for the career. On top of that, with our OL, Luck is hardly ever hit, so the risk of injury is further reduced. Additionally, with the uncertainty and turmoil in the NFL holdout, it made sense for Luck to wait it out and hone his craft another year.

But for Gaffney, football isn't even his pro-sport. The risk he's putting his body through just to have a good time almost feels irresponsible. As a RB, he puts his body at a much higher level of risk, whether it's running or blocking, than the QB does. Don't get me wrong, I love what he brings to the team, but I think the sick feeling I get whenever one of our players goes down would be that much more amplified if it were Gaffney. It would be akin to a medical student training in brain surgery deciding to pick up boxing in the final year of residency to represent his university.

I'll play the devil's advocate to myself though. I hate how college sports have become a training ground for the pros. Kids pick schools based on how it positions them to go pro. Athletes, like Keenan Allen at Cal, are evaluating their NFL prospects a season before they're even eligible. So to the degree that a kid just wants to go out there play and represent their university with pride and get in the trenches with their brothers, I can respect that.

Re: 2012: The Offense - socalstanfan1 - 10-21-2011

Regarding the Gaffney part of this thread: I love Gaffney being on the field, think he could be a great back if given more carries, and think that in general he adds a lot to the team.  But I also think he is really putting his future in baseball, if that is where he wants to go, at risk.  Obviously, it's his decision, he's an intelligent adult and we should assume he has taken everything into consideration.  I think everyone on here realizes what he adds to the football team.  I do think the concern for him is admirable, actually.  I can't imagine a lot of, say, Michigan fans worrying about a star player who was a dual sport athlete jeapordizing their career by playing football.  At many big-time football programs, it's win at all costs.

Re: 2012: The Offense - Spiny_Norman - 10-22-2011

Quote:I can remember only one football player, Bob Whitfield, leaving early.

Kwame Harris left early.  And as recently as last year Thomas Keiser declared for the draft while he still had eligibility remaining.

Trivial aside - Bob Whitfield's son Kodi is a WR who has committed to Stanford for next year
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jun/11/sports/la-sp-0612-sondheimer-column-20110612