Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding

Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Printable Version

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Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-08-2021

With Arizona not participating, the men's basketball conference tournament is, in effect, for the Pac-11. If there were 12 teams playing, the top 4 would receive first-round byes. But with 11, the top *5* receive byes (thanks, Wildcats!). Those seeded 6 through 11 must win 4 games in 4 days versus 3 games in 3 days for 1 through 5, so it's a big deal for Stanford.

Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Monday morning:
USC 9-2
UCLA 9-2
Colorado 8-4
Oregon 5-3
Stanford 8-5
Oregon State 6-5
(Arizona) 7-6
Utah 5-6
Arizona State 3-5
Washington State 4-8
Washington 2-10
Cal 2-12

It's worth noting that Oregon State plays Colorado this afternoon. Also Oregon has the edge over Stanford in winning percentage, which is why the Ducks are in fourth place and the Cardinal in fifth. Normally I would insert my gripe that, due to the unbalanced schedule, teams should be seeded based on wins minus losses, but Oregon beat Stanford head-to-head and the teams are scheduled to meet again on February 25 so I'll wait until that second meeting before I sound off too loudly.

Given that Stanford is 3 games behind UCLA and USC in the loss column with only one more game versus USC remaining, I think the best seed we could hope for would be third. Stanford's remaining 7 regular-season opponents include three opponents ahead of them in the standings: USC, Colorado and Oregon. Two opponents, Oregon State and Utah, are within a game of Stanford in the loss column. UW and WSU are must wins.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - VB Card - 02-08-2021

Yea the way the bracket currently sits, Stanford would play Oregon first round. We need to get to that 3 seed to avoid such a tough first matchup.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - AlbanyCardinal - 02-08-2021

Is that b/c it's 4 v. 5 on the second day, and the top 3 play the winners of the first-day games?

(02-08-2021, 03:11 PM)VB Card Wrote: Yea the way the bracket currently sits, Stanford would play Oregon first round. We need to get to that 3 seed to avoid such a tough first matchup.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - CompSci87 - 02-08-2021

(02-08-2021, 07:53 PM)AlbanyCardinal Wrote: Is that b/c it's 4 v. 5 on the second day, and the top 3 play the winners of the first-day games?

(02-08-2021, 03:11 PM)VB Card Wrote: Yea the way the bracket currently sits, Stanford would play Oregon first round. We need to get to that 3 seed to avoid such a tough first matchup.

Yes. It works exactly like a 16-team tourney, just with the top seeds (usually top 4, this year top 5) getting a bye in the first round because there is no 16th, 15th, etc. seed for them to play in the first round. So if seeds hold in the round of 16, then 4 plays 5 in the round of 8.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-09-2021

CU beat OSU yesterday, so the standings remain the same with Stanford at #5--we would have been tied for #4 with CU if they had lost.

Stanford last played on Sunday night, so I don't know how much of a rest advantage it will be that CU had to play on Monday afternoon. Especially since no CU starter played more than 26 minutes. We'll find out on Thursday at 4 pm on ESPNU (as of 9:30 am on Tuesday).

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - PVTree - 02-09-2021

More than rested, I'm hoping Wills and Williams are back at full strength against the Buffs. Davis being back is probably too much to ask for.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - bl82 - 02-09-2021

Whenever Daejon comes back, it occurs to me that in addition to the starting lineup that we began the year with and the recent big lineup, we now have some intriguing small lineup options that might give certain lineups a big matchup problem:
.....Orig...............Big.................Small
PG Davis.....PG O'Connell....PG O'Connell
W Wills........F Jones..............W Davis
F Jones........F Delaire...........W Wills
F Williams...F da Silva..........F Williams
F da Silva....F Kisunas..........F da Silva

I used to assume our starting five is set, now it seems as if the core big three might be O'Connell, Williams and da Silva. Between Davis, Wills, Jones and Delaire -- perhaps even Kisunas and Taitz, the rotation can go bigger or smaller, more defense or more offense, more shooters or more slashers, etc. Suddenly the staff has a lot of moving parts to work with rather than just spot substitutions with Delaire, Keefe or Taitz

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - BobK - 02-09-2021

Davis is back per the Haase Zoom last night

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - burger - 02-09-2021

(02-09-2021, 12:11 PM)bl82 Wrote: Whenever Daejon comes back, it occurs to me that in addition to the starting lineup that we began the year with and the recent big lineup, we now have some intriguing small lineup options that might give certain lineups a big matchup problem:

.....Orig...............Big.................Small

PG Davis.....PG O'Connell....PG O'Connell

W Wills........F Jones..............W Davis

F Jones........F Delaire...........W Wills

F Williams...F da Silva..........F Williams

F da Silva....F Kisunas..........F da Silva

I used to assume our starting five is set, now it seems as if the core big three might be O'Connell, Williams and da Silva. Between Davis, Wills, Jones and Delaire -- perhaps even Kisunas and Taitz, the rotation can go bigger or smaller, more defense or more offense, more shooters or more slashers, etc. Suddenly the staff has a lot of moving parts to work with rather than just spot substitutions with Delaire, Keefe or Taitz

Once healthy, Wills has to be a starter no matter who we're playing. He is long enough to guard people taller than him.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - martyup - 02-09-2021

Taitz has proven his value. We can run the snot out of teams by freely using 9 or 10 players, including Davis.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Spiny_Norman - 02-09-2021

(02-09-2021, 01:10 PM)BobK Wrote: Davis is back per the Haase Zoom last night

Bob, I think I heard Coach Haase say that Davis was *expected* back this week. We'll see if Coach thinks that he is game-ready. As we heard in his opening remarks, Coach is going to be careful about re-introducing Wills, Williams and Davis into the lineup. I am sure that he will want to see in practice that they fit in with the current chemistry of the team. And of course Davis' and Wills' minutes will be limited as they get back into game shape.

Did I hear Coach Haase say on the Zoom that Wills has had surgery? Or that he needs surgery?

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - BobK - 02-09-2021

Well two of us heard will be back. I asked my friend becasue the ulitmate insider elsewhere thinks not back.
Wills had knee surgery.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-16-2021

With the home split the Stanford men are still holding on to the projected #5 seed and a first round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Tuesday morning:
USC 11-2
UCLA 10-3
Oregon 7-3
Colorado 10-5
Stanford 9-6
(Arizona) 8-7
Utah 6-7
Oregon State 6-8
Arizona State 4-6
Washington State 5-10
Washington 3-12
Cal 3-13

The only change in the top part of the standings is that Oregon moved up to #3 and Colorado down to #4. The other big issue is that the #3 seed is slipping away. Stanford has five games left in the regular season, including @ USC and vs Oregon. They may need to win all five to move up two spots in the standings. As a #4 or #5 seed, Stanford will face either Oregon or Colorado in their first tournament game.

In any case, Stanford absolutely needs a road sweep in Washington this week. They did accomplish this last season, so let's hope lightning strikes twice.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - burger - 02-16-2021

Thanks for the update, Papa John. In terms of finishing 5th or better, we're in a good position. OSU and the teams below them aren't catching us. Utah's remaining schedule is:

@Oregon
@OSU
OSU
UCLA
USC

Winning more than 2 of those will involve a decent-sized upset. And Utah is still down 2 starters, I think.

Lunardi at espn currently has us as the very last team in the bracket. If we sweep at Washington and then beat OSU but lose again to Oregon and USC, I don't think we're getting in. We're going to need to show that the earlier wins over UCLA and Alabama weren't flukes. We're fully healthy now (I think), so no more excuses.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-16-2021

Agree with all you say, burger. Also, to lay out the difficulty of Stanford's path, our next three on the road versus UW on Thursday, WSU on Saturday and USC on Monday. Then the home game versus Oregon next Thursday and OSU next Saturday. So five games in 10 days, four games in eight days, three road games in five days. And we're still trying to get fully healthy.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - AlbanyCardinal - 02-16-2021

Sure doesn't seem likely Stanford will get to 3rd place. The good news is the team should be well-rested (and hopefully fully healthy) by the time tourney play starts. Be careful what you wish for, I know, but this fan hopes its Oregon in the first round, assuming it's a choice between the Ducks and the Buffs. Colorado is a nightmare matchup for the Card.

(02-16-2021, 12:28 PM)burger Wrote: Thanks for the update, Papa John. In terms of finishing 5th or better, we're in a good position. OSU and the teams below them aren't catching us. Utah's remaining schedule is:

@Oregon
@OSU
OSU
UCLA
USC

Winning more than 2 of those will involve a decent-sized upset. And Utah is still down 2 starters, I think.

Lunardi at espn currently has us as the very last team in the bracket. If we sweep at Washington and then beat OSU but lose again to Oregon and USC, I don't think we're getting in. We're going to need to show that the earlier wins over UCLA and Alabama weren't flukes. We're fully healthy now (I think), so no more excuses.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-24-2021

Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Wednesday:
USC 13-3
UCLA 12-3
Oregon 9-4
Colorado 11-6
Stanford 10-7
(Arizona) 9-8
Oregon State 7-9
Washington State 7-10
Utah 6-9
Arizona State 5-8
Washington 4-14
Cal 3-15

The #5 seed/first-round bye is still the most likely outcome, IMO. If the season ended today that would put us in a second-round game vs Colorado, which is a bad matchup, or Oregon, which may not be much better. A #4 seed still means we play either Colorado or Oregon. And if we win that game we likely face #1 USC. Depending on how the regular season ends, Stanford may need to win both of those games to secure a bid to the NCAA tournament.

There is a narrow path to the #3 seed and a first-round matchup versus #6/#11:
Stanford wins vs. Oregon, vs. Oregon State and @ USC to finish 13-7/.650
Oregon loses @ Stanford and two more of its remaining four @ Cal, vs. Arizona, vs. UCLA or @ OSU to finish 11-7/.611
Colorado loses two of its remaining three vs. USC, vs. UCLA or vs. ASU to finish 12-8/.600

If Stanford does not win out, it cannot finish #3 according to my calculations. On top of that, Colorado has its remaining three games at home, where the Buffs are 8-1 this season. Obviously, Stanford's come-from-ahead loss to WSU really hurts.

I was hoping that the return of Davis, Wills and Williams would result in consistently better results. Hasn't happened yet, but maybe this is the week the team turns the corner...

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 02-26-2021

Stanford is now guaranteed no better than a #5 seeding--and first-round bye--in the Pac-12 tournament. However, we could fall to #6 if ASU wins out and even #7 if we lose to OSU.

The only reason I'm still posting on this thread is that I remain hopeful that a healthy Stanford team can get to the conference tournament finals. Stanford's last regular season game @ USC is Wednesday, March 3. With a first-round bye, we won't play again until Thursday, March 11, which is plenty of time to get healthy and right the ship.

In spite of two consecutive come-from-ahead losses I'm not giving up on this team.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - Papa John - 03-01-2021

Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Monday:
UCLA 13-4
Oregon 11-4
USC 13-5
Colorado 13-6
(Arizona) 11-8
Stanford 10-9, Wednesday @ USC
Oregon State 9-9, Wednesday @ Utah, Sunday vs Oregon
Arizona State 7-8, Monday vs WSU canceled, Thursday @ Colorado, Saturday @ Utah
Utah 7-10
Washington State 7-12
Washington 4-16
Cal 3-17

After Stanford's three-game nosedive, it's now a 3-team race for the final bye in the upcoming Pac-12 tournament. If Oscar da Silva is not able to play, I'm going to go ahead and pencil in a loss @ USC and 10-10 final conference record for Stanford. To secure the #5 seed we would need OSU to lose @ Utah and vs Oregon AND ASU to do no better than a split at the mountain schools. A split for OSU would leave both Stanford and the Beavers with identical 10-10 conference records and 1-1 head-to-head results. The third tiebreaker is: "Each team’s record (won-lost percentage) vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage."

Of the four teams in the running for #1, we're 1-0 vs UCLA, 0-2 vs Oregon, 0-1 vs USC (one more game pending), and 0-2 vs Colorado. OSU is 0-1 vs UCLA, 1-0 vs Oregon (one more game pending), 1-1 vs USC and 0-1 vs Colorado. So, OSU has a better record vs Oregon, USC (pending Wednesday results) and Colorado. Stanford has a better record vs UCLA.

There's no telling at this point who will be the #4 seed. I'm pretty sure that UCLA, USC, Oregon or Colorado could end up #4 (or #1).

And I'm still of the opinion that Stanford can make a deep run in the conference tournament if everyone is healthy.

RE: Men's BB: Pac-12 Tournament seeding - CardinalSagehen - 03-01-2021

(03-01-2021, 02:43 PM)Papa John Wrote: Here are the Pac-12 standings as of Monday:
UCLA 13-4
Oregon 11-4
USC 13-5
Colorado 13-6
(Arizona) 11-8
Stanford 10-9, Wednesday @ USC
Oregon State 9-9, Wednesday @ Utah, Sunday vs Oregon
Arizona State 7-8, Monday vs WSU canceled, Thursday @ Colorado, Saturday @ Utah
Utah 7-10
Washington State 7-12
Washington 4-16
Cal 3-17

After Stanford's three-game nosedive, it's now a 3-team race for the final bye in the upcoming Pac-12 tournament. If Oscar da Silva is not able to play, I'm going to go ahead and pencil in a loss @ USC and 10-10 final conference record for Stanford. To secure the #5 seed we would need OSU to lose @ Utah and vs Oregon AND ASU to do no better than a split at the mountain schools. A split for OSU would leave both Stanford and the Beavers with identical 10-10 conference records and 1-1 head-to-head results. The third tiebreaker is: "Each team’s record (won-lost percentage) vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage."

Of the four teams in the running for #1, we're 1-0 vs UCLA, 0-2 vs Oregon, 0-1 vs USC (one more game pending), and 0-2 vs Colorado. OSU is 0-1 vs UCLA, 1-0 vs Oregon (one more game pending), 1-1 vs USC and 0-1 vs Colorado. So, OSU has a better record vs Oregon, USC (pending Wednesday results) and Colorado. Stanford has a better record vs UCLA.

There's no telling at this point who will be the #4 seed. I'm pretty sure that UCLA, USC, Oregon or Colorado could end up #4 (or #1).

And I'm still of the opinion that Stanford can make a deep run in the conference tournament if everyone is healthy.

I don't know what you mean by "deep run," but if you're implying (or letting yourself believe) that we can still make the NCAA Tournament by winning the Pac-12 tournament, that's an enormous longshot.

I too have enjoyed watching this team and seeing them overcome the SCC lockdown. It's nice when you have a few guys that have been around for several years and that you'd like to see do well, combined with some exciting new talent.

But we have a number of data points now. It's unlikely that this team is much better than its record at this point. All teams experience injuries and bad luck. We somehow managed to lose to Wazzu with our entire roster available and their leading scorer injured.

I will be pulling for the team and suspending my disbelief just like you, but I'm afraid it's just not happening this year... again.