WBB: Stanford 78 vs Louisville 63 Elite 8; off to the Final Four! - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: WBB: Stanford 78 vs Louisville 63 Elite 8; off to the Final Four! (/thread-21774.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: WBB: Stanford 78 vs Louisville 63 Elite 8; off to the Final Four! (/thread-21774.html)
WBB: Stanford 78 vs Louisville 63 Elite 8; off to the Final Four! - 81alum - 03-28-2021
Preview:
We get Louisville, just as the committee predicted. Louisville is 26-3, having lost narrowly to North Carolina State twice and to Florida State once. The ranked teams it has beaten include DePaul, Syracuse, and just now Oregon. Frankly, that is not a terribly impressive resume for the elite 8.
Louisville is led by 5'6" senior point guard Dana Evans, who scores 20ppg, has a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio, and leads the team in steals. She hits about 34% of her treys. She apparently was in an offensive slump until Oregon helped her get out of it--she finished with 29 points. It is safe to say that Anna Wilson will have her hands full controlling her.
Their second leading scorer at 12ppg is a familiar player--Kiana Smith who transferred from Cal. A 6'0" guard, she is hitting 38% of her treys. She looks like an assignment for Lexie or Lacie.
Their third leading scorer is freshman Haily van Lith, a 5'7" guard who is hitting 39% of her treys.
Olivia Cochrane is a 6'3" freshman forward who has started all year. She hits 56% of her shots, all from inside, and leads the team in defensive rebounds.
They have started several different players in the fifth slot. Today and lately they started 5'7" junior guard Mykasa Robinson. She has taken almost no three point shots this year and is well down their scoring list. I presume she is a defensive specialist.
What this means is that they have been starting 4 guards, with Kiana Smith at 6'0" the tallest, and a 6'3" forward. This gives them great quickness and excellent perimeter defense, as Oregon found out. Oregon was 4/14 from three point range.
Off the bench Louisville does have some height. Elizabeth Dixon is a 6'5" forward who plays 19 mpg. I would not be at all surprised to see a lot more of her and her two 6'4" forward teammates coming off the bench given that Louisville will otherwise be undersized.
I have a lot of respect for their coach as an X's and O's coach. He knew exactly how to take us out of our game the last time we played them in the NCAAs, again relying on shorter and quicker players to disrupt us. Tara I am sure has a good memory, though, and will be ready for them.
I could be wrong (I often have been!) but I sense that they will be able to restrain our three point shooting the way they did Oregon's. Their quickness and perimeter defense is good. To win they may make us play quite differently than we have over the last six games, in which we relied on three point shooting to open up the defenses. This makes the inside game very important, and I think they are not as strong there. Brink simply MUST stay out of foul trouble and be prepared to make her inside shots. She could be the key to this game.
Prechtel might also have an important role--they may not have anyone who can defend her on the perimeter without leaving the floor open for cutters receiving passes from her.
And we could possibly just continue shooting well from three despite their best efforts.
There are a lot of uncertainties. I thought their win over Oregon did not look strong so much as Oregon looked weak and injured. They did not look like a scary team. But they have several elite guards and we might not be able to stay in front of all of them, and disrupting our three point shooting and our passing will be a priority for them. Will they be able to do it? We shall see.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - TheFarm07 - 03-28-2021
What do you all think? Who should we root for?
I admit I agree with 81alum; I am scared of Oregon's familiarity with us, both games were competitive. Paopao hasn't played and I don't know her status, so I am not sure if she's out for the rest of the season or there's a chance she might play if the Ducks advance.
On paper, at first glance, it would seem like we should root for Kelly Graves and co., given Louisville is the higher seed and that they had a better regular season than Oregon. Their guard trio of Dana Evans, Kianna Smith and Hailey Van Lith will certainly test our contingent of guards/wings and they have a 6'5" forward in Dixon, who's averaging 8 points on 58% shooting, so they have plenty of weapons.
But, Oregon is no pushover either. They held South Dakota to 10 points in the first half and almost completely shut them out in the second quarter if not for a late lone made free throw and then they beat a very good Georgia team in the second round. Prince is playing well and at 6'7" will pose issues inside, especially if Brink's foul trouble continues. She also has a little range, so she's not just a threat in the paint. And though Sabally is not as polished as her older sister yet, she's still very talented. Plus Boley and Mikesell would need to be closely watched on the perimeter with their long range shooting prowess. Also, their team is obviously very familiar with ours and they've had two games of experience to dissect what went right and wrong for them.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - WBB fan - 03-28-2021
I don't have any problem deciding who to root for here -- it's Oregon. Pac-12 pride, and yes, they know us, but we know them equally well. We can take them a 3rd time!!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - BobK - 03-28-2021
Certainly Agree with WW fan
We know them very well and we can beat them. As we have
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - PVTree - 03-28-2021
Pao Pao won't be playing against us if Oregon advances.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - 81alum - 03-28-2021
After watching the first quarter of the Oregon/Louisville game, they both look equally terrible. We'll see what happens the rest of the way, but neither looks particularly scary at the moment.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - oldalum - 03-28-2021
I'm just hoping for double overtime
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - 81alum - 03-28-2021
Well, Louisville got better in the 2nd quarter but Oregon didn't. Foul trouble and injuries were part of it, but so was going 0/9 from three point range and a bunch of needless turnovers on entry passes. Embarrassing, actually. 14 points in a half, for the Ducks. Sheesh.
Louisville does have a good perimeter defense. We will need more than three pointers to beat them.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - martyup - 03-28-2021
We have much better size than Louisville. I like our chances.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - 81alum - 03-28-2021
Oregon's injuries are killing its comeback. It was having a great 3rd quarter and closing the gap, but Sabally goes out with an ankle injury.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - BostonCard - 03-28-2021
Looks to be Louisville. Oregon just ran out of gas.
BC
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Oregon/Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - CompSci87 - 03-28-2021
Boley dribbling is not what you want to see if you're an Oregon fan. Basically they ran out of guards.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - 81alum - 03-28-2021
I have redone the preview at the top for Louisville. Bring them on!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday) - TheFarm07 - 03-28-2021
We also get the 6pm PST slot on Tuesday evening too
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - PVTree - 03-29-2021
I don't like that we got the second day games for the S16 and EE games. The FF games are on Friday, giving us 1 less day to rest/prepare for our opponents in comparison to Yukon.
If the game vs. Louisville is a tedious one that is decided late into the 4th quarter (and we win), we may head into the FF game very tired with less than 72 hours of rest.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - TheFarm07 - 03-29-2021
A couple more points for this matchup:
We have 2 players this year who played in our loss against Louisville 3 years ago: Kiana and Alyssa. Jerome played just 4 minutes, but Kiana started and played 30 minutes. She didn't have a good game (7 points on 3/11 shooting (1/5 from 3-pt range) and 3 turnovers); obviously she is a much better and more experienced player now than she was back then.
Dana Evans came off the bench for them, but logged 21 minutes and was an efficient 4/6 and just from a cursory glance at the box score of that game compared with the Oregon game today, she's the only holdover.
I also watched Walz's press conference and he noted that he coached both Fran and Cameron when they were on the national U19 team, so he has insight and experience with their games.
He also praised his guards' ball pressure against the Ducks and as 81alum pointed out, their perimeter defense is stout. So, this looks like the biggest test yet for our guards. Williams has been jump starting our offense, bouyed by her home crowd support and her hot starts have ignited the rest of the team. I hope we can still get a good flow going if she is not as accurate as she has been on Tuesday evening with a better defense guarding her.
I think Haley might play a role in countering the pressure; her height and strength gives her an advantage over some of Louisville's shorter players but she still has the mobility and agility too.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - CompSci87 - 03-29-2021
Nice story about Ki's parents at the Athletic:
https://theathletic.com/2483267/2021/03/28/kiana-williams-stanford-ncaa-tournament/
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - TheFarm07 - 03-29-2021
I took a quick glance at the box scores of their three losses this season (twice to NC State and once to Florida State) to see if any stats jumped off the page.
In two of their three losses (the first NC State loss by 14 points and the Florida State defeat), they were outrebounded (overall) by 15 by NC State and they allowed FSU 19 offensive rebounds.
In another common thread, their opponent went to a combined 28 more times to the FT line in their losses.
It was notable that even in all three of their defeats, their opponent did not shoot the 3 ball well (all under 30%).
Evans had a great game in one loss (29 points) but was their only double digit scorer, while in the other two defeats, she was a combined 12 of 42 with the scoring more spread out.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - M T - 03-29-2021
(03-29-2021, 01:30 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: I took a quick glance at the box scores of their three losses this season (twice to NC State and once to Florida State) to see if any stats jumped off the page.Of the elite 8 teams, opponent 3FG% numbers are
In two of their three losses (the first NC State loss by 14 points and the Florida State defeat), they were outrebounded (overall) by 15 by NC State and they allowed FSU 19 offensive rebounds.
In another common thread, their opponent went to a combined 28 more times to the FT line in their losses.
It was notable that even in all three of their defeats, their opponent did not shoot the 3 ball well (all under 30%).
Evans had a great game in one loss (29 points) but was their only double digit scorer, while in the other two defeats, she was a combined 12 of 42 with the scoring more spread out.
Stanford 26.9%
UConn 27.0%
Baylor 27.1%
Louisville 27.1%
So. Carolina 27.1%
Texas 30.5%
Indiana 30.6%
Arizona 31.3%
Louisville OR% is 33.7% while their opponents' is 30.7%
Stanford OR% is 37.7% while their opponents' is 26.5%
RE: WBB: Stanford vs Louisville Elite 8 (Tuesday 6pm) - Hulk01 - 03-29-2021
The Louisville stat that leaps out to me is offensive rebounds. On a percentage of shots taken basis, they have allowed almost as many as they have pulled down
And they haven't dramatically outperformed their opponents on three point shots, to the extent that Baylor, Stanford and U Conn have. They've been the better team than their opponents, but not the dramatically better one.