Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best...

Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - Printable Version

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Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - Mick - 07-08-2021

...according to the Sporting News...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/list/2021-ranking-college-football-coaches-1-130/aucm7nf38ieq12rwz0wbezasn/6

Other Pac 12 coaches and select opponent coaches with this year's/last year's ranking:

Brian Kelly, Notre Dame (4, was 6)
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (15, was 11)
Mario Cristobal, Oregon (16, was 15)
Kyle Wittingham, Utah (19, was 18)
David Shaw, Stanford (24, was 24)
Clay Helton, USC (25, was 26)
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss (was USC) (26, was 39
Mike Leach, Mississippi State (28, was 19. Bloom off the rose?)
Herm Edwards, Arizona State (34, was 30)
Justin Wilcox, Cal (47, was 48)
Chip Kelly, UCLA (50, was 53)
Karl Dorrell, Colorado (59, was 96)
Jimmy Lake, Washington (60, was 64)
Nick Rolovich, Washington State (65, was 65)
Sonny Dykes, SMU (ex-Cal) (69)
Jed Fisch, Arizona (78)
Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (77)
Brent Brennan, San Jose State (81, was 121. Moved up 40 spots after last year's 7-1 record)
Mike Bloomgren, Rice (119, was 122)

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - BostonCard - 07-08-2021

Correction, he is ranked #24, with 19 points.

Not sure what Clay Helton did to get #25.

Let's play buy/sell/hold with a number of coaches:
#79 Jedd Fisch (Arizona): Sell
#78 Jonathan Smith (OSU): Buy
#65 Nick Rolovich (WSU): Hold
#60 Jimmy Lake (UW): Buy
#59 Karl Dorrell (Colorado): Hold
#50 Chip Kelley (UCLA): Hold
#47 Justin Wilcox (Cal): Buy
#34 Herm Edwards (ASU): Buy
#28 Mike Leech (MSU): Sell
#26 Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss): Sell
#25 Clay Helton (USC): Sell
#19 Kyle Wittingham (Utah): Hold
#16 Mario Cristobal (Oregon): Buy
#15 Jim Harbaugh (Michigan): Sell
#4 Brian Kelley (Notre Dame): Hold

BC

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - teejers1 - 07-08-2021

(07-08-2021, 02:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Correction, he is ranked #24, with 19 points.

Not sure what Clay Helton did to get #25.

Let's play buy/sell/hold with a number of coaches:
#79 Jedd Fisch (Arizona): Sell
#78 Jonathan Smith (OSU): Buy
#65 Nick Rolovich (WSU): Hold
#60 Jimmy Lake (UW): Buy
#59 Karl Dorrell (Colorado): Hold
#50 Chip Kelley (UCLA): Hold
#47 Justin Wilcox (Cal): Buy
#34 Herm Edwards (ASU): Buy
#28 Mike Leech (MSU): Sell
#26 Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss): Sell
#25 Clay Helton (USC): Sell
#19 Kyle Wittingham (Utah): Hold
#16 Mario Cristobal (Oregon): Buy
#15 Jim Harbaugh (Michigan): Sell
#4 Brian Kelley (Notre Dame): Hold

BC

You didn't B/S/H our guy. I'd Sell.

Most of the rest look right, though I disagree with Buying the ASU guy and Holding ND (I'd Buy - the Irish are crushing it on recruiting and benefiting most from Stanford's reversion into national irrelevance).

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - BostonCard - 07-08-2021

(07-08-2021, 04:24 PM)teejers1 Wrote: You didn't B/S/H our guy. I'd Sell.

Most of the rest look right, though I disagree with Buying the ASU guy and Holding ND (I'd Buy - the Irish are crushing it on recruiting and benefiting most from Stanford's reversion into national irrelevance).

I deliberately left out our guy; I was curious what people would say without me anchoring. I am bearish short term, neutral mid-term, and bearish long-term (though the latter for reasons that have little to do with our guy).

The question on the ND guy is whether he would be a buy at #4. That's basically a bet that he will win the championship in the next few years. I see a lot of 10 and 11 win seasons for ND, but I don't see a title in Kelley's future, not with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and tOSU taking turns ahead of him. ND will be in the title hunt year in and year out, but it will fall short year in and year out. Thus, I think he's a hold at 4.

Edwards is a buy at 34, at least in the short term. He probably has one of the top-2 teams in the South right now, and seems likely to make it to the top-25. I'm not sure what his long term prospects are, and the next couple years' teams may be at or near his ceiling. But that ceiling is better than 34.

BC

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - DC 86 - 07-08-2021

(07-08-2021, 07:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The question on the ND guy is whether he would be a buy at #4. That's basically a bet that he will win the championship in the next few years. I see a lot of 10 and 11 win seasons for ND, but I don't see a title in Kelley's future, not with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and tOSU taking turns ahead of him. ND will be in the title hunt year in and year out, but it will fall short year in and year out. Thus, I think he's a hold at 4.

Edwards is a Buy at 34, at least in the short term. He probably has one of the top-2 teams in the South right now, and seems likely to make it to the top-25. I'm not sure what his long term prospects are, and the next couple years' teams may be at or near his ceiling. But that ceiling is better than 34.

BC

Agreed, ASU is a sleeping giant and Edwards is doing a lot of things right there, he is a Buy.

On the other hand, Finch is also a Buy for me, definitely not a Sell; that program can't get any worse and he's doing good things in terms of recruiting.

Jimmy Lake is also a Sell for me, based on poor recruiting and the fact that their biggest true rival (Oregon, not WSU) is on such a strong upward trajectory.

Of the others on the list the one that stands out for me is Sonny Dykes at #69. It's hard to believe following his dismal Cal tenure but he's doing a brilliant job at SMU. They are having unprecedented recruiting success and bringing home big time transfers who played for metroplex high schools. I would issue Buy recommendations on all of the top G5 programs since they are going to benefit from the playoff expansion and SMU is obviously in the top echelon of that cohort. Buying SMU stock now is like buying Microsoft stock in the late 1980s, and given Dykes's age and roots he should be there for the foreseeable future.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - Phogge - 07-08-2021

I like Jonathan Smith a lot. In a position where he has little chance to win the Pac 12. Was a cool customer as a QB.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - SamuelMcF - 07-08-2021

(07-08-2021, 08:27 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(07-08-2021, 07:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The question on the ND guy is whether he would be a buy at #4. That's basically a bet that he will win the championship in the next few years. I see a lot of 10 and 11 win seasons for ND, but I don't see a title in Kelley's future, not with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and tOSU taking turns ahead of him. ND will be in the title hunt year in and year out, but it will fall short year in and year out. Thus, I think he's a hold at 4.

Edwards is a Buy at 34, at least in the short term. He probably has one of the top-2 teams in the South right now, and seems likely to make it to the top-25. I'm not sure what his long term prospects are, and the next couple years' teams may be at or near his ceiling. But that ceiling is better than 34.

BC

Agreed, ASU is a sleeping giant and Edwards is doing a lot of things right there, he is a Buy.

The coach who has over a dozen allegations of recruiting rule violations? Why the f*** did you think they were recruiting so well all of a sudden?
https://sports.yahoo.com/yahoo-sports-exclusive-dossier-reveals-extent-of-ncaa-allegations-against-arizona-state-football-055252113.html

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - JeffInCorvallis - 07-09-2021

People really rank Clay Helton, Lane Kiffin, and Mike Leach ahead of Chip Kelley? Wow.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - Giants - 07-09-2021

(07-08-2021, 08:27 PM)DC 86 Wrote:
(07-08-2021, 07:34 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The question on the ND guy is whether he would be a buy at #4. That's basically a bet that he will win the championship in the next few years. I see a lot of 10 and 11 win seasons for ND, but I don't see a title in Kelley's future, not with Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and tOSU taking turns ahead of him. ND will be in the title hunt year in and year out, but it will fall short year in and year out. Thus, I think he's a hold at 4.

Edwards is a Buy at 34, at least in the short term. He probably has one of the top-2 teams in the South right now, and seems likely to make it to the top-25. I'm not sure what his long term prospects are, and the next couple years' teams may be at or near his ceiling. But that ceiling is better than 34.

BC

Agreed, ASU is a sleeping giant and Edwards is doing a lot of things right there, he is a Buy.

On the other hand, Finch is also a Buy for me, definitely not a Sell; that program can't get any worse and he's doing good things in terms of recruiting.

Jimmy Lake is also a Sell for me, based on poor recruiting and the fact that their biggest true rival (Oregon, not WSU) is on such a strong upward trajectory.

Of the others on the list the one that stands out for me is Sonny Dykes at #69. It's hard to believe following his dismal Cal tenure but he's doing a brilliant job at SMU. They are having unprecedented recruiting success and bringing home big time transfers who played for metroplex high schools. I would issue Buy recommendations on all of the top G5 programs since they are going to benefit from the playoff expansion and SMU is obviously in the top echelon of that cohort. Buying SMU stock now is like buying Microsoft stock in the late 1980s, and given Dykes's age and roots he should be there for the foreseeable future.

It is all about finding your niche…

He was in over his head at the P5 level. He has found a home at the lower G5 level.

(07-08-2021, 01:53 PM)Mick Wrote: ...according to the Sporting News...

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/list/2021-ranking-college-football-coaches-1-130/aucm7nf38ieq12rwz0wbezasn/6

Other Pac 12 coaches and select opponent coaches with this year's/last year's ranking:

Brian Kelly, Notre Dame (4, was 6)
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (15, was 11)
Mario Cristobal, Oregon (16, was 15)
Kyle Wittingham, Utah (19, was 18)
David Shaw, Stanford (24, was 24)
Clay Helton, USC (25, was 26)
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss (was USC) (26, was 39
Mike Leach, Mississippi State (28, was 19. Bloom off the rose?)
Herm Edwards, Arizona State (34, was 30)
Justin Wilcox, Cal (47, was 48)
Chip Kelly, UCLA (50, was 53)
Karl Dorrell, Colorado (59, was 96)
Jimmy Lake, Washington (60, was 64)
Nick Rolovich, Washington State (65, was 65)
Sonny Dykes, SMU (ex-Cal) (69)
Jed Fisch, Arizona (78)
Jonathan Smith, Oregon State (77)
Brent Brennan, San Jose State (81, was 121. Moved up 40 spots after last year's 7-1 record)
Mike Bloomgren, Rice (119, was 122)

I always wonder about rankings that include guys who have never been a head coach at a P5 school. Fisch may be the best guy to coach at AZ since Tomey or he may be a total bust. No one knows until he has led a program for at least a couple seasons.

Too high - Harbaugh, Leach, Edwards.
Too low - Brennan, Kelly, Lake.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - BostonCard - 07-09-2021

(07-09-2021, 10:05 AM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: People really rank Clay Helton, Lane Kiffin, and Mike Leach ahead of Chip Kelley? Wow.

I guess it depends on whether you are looking at career or recently. Chip Kelly at UCLA: 2018: 3-9 (3-6), 2019: 4-8 (4-5), 2020: 3-4 (3-4)
In three seasons, he has not had a winning season overall or in conference, and has finished 5th, 3rd, and 5th out 6 teams in the south. His recruiting classes have ranked 6th (2019), 6th (2020), and 4th (2021) in the conference.

He's fallen hard, but at 50th he seems appropriately rated to me.

On the other guys, I had the three guys you mentioned as "sell". Leach was a great coach for WSU, but I don't think he will do well in SEC. Too soon to tell how Lane Kiffin will do at Ole Miss, but I don't view him as a "just outside the top-25" kind of coach. USC will probably do ok because it is USC, not because Helton is their coach. The Trojans will contend for the Pac-12 south and might even win the conference, but that is expected at USC and isn't because Helton is a top-25 coach. But, especially if ASU gets hit for recruiting violations, Chip Kelly continues to struggle at UCLA, and no one else emerges in the South, I pencil in USC as the most likely team to emerge in the Pac-12 south in the next few years. And, to his credit, he did recruit Slovis who at the time was a 3* recruit.

BC

(07-09-2021, 10:50 AM)Giants Wrote: Too low - Brennan, Kelly, Lake.

Chip or Brian?

I can see Chip Kelly moving up as he gets his system in place, but in three years at UCLA he has not impressed with either recruiting or results.
As I mentioned, Brian Kelly is already ranked #4, and two of the guys ahead of him have won multiple national titles, and the third has gone to four CFB playoffs in his four years at Oklahoma. To say Brian Kelly is ranked too low, you would have to believe that UDFG will be winning a national title in the next couple years.

BC

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - SamuelMcF - 07-09-2021

Jimmy Lake hired a questionable OC, and vaunted DC Kwiatkowski just left for Texas. They promoted internally. Sell.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - DC 86 - 07-09-2021

(07-09-2021, 10:50 AM)Giants Wrote: Of the others on the list the one that stands out for me is Sonny Dykes at #69. It's hard to believe following his dismal Cal tenure but he's doing a brilliant job at SMU. They are having unprecedented recruiting success and bringing home big time transfers who played for metroplex high schools. I would issue Buy recommendations on all of the top G5 programs since they are going to benefit from the playoff expansion and SMU is obviously in the top echelon of that cohort. Buying SMU stock now is like buying Microsoft stock in the late 1980s, and given Dykes's age and roots he should be there for the foreseeable future.

It is all about finding your niche…

He was in over his head at the P5 level. He has found a home at the lower G5 level.
[/quote]

Strongly disagree. I think you are falling into the trap of simply P5 vs G5 as opposed to actually comparing the AAC and the Pac-12, and the specific teams within each.

SMU is a top half program in the AAC, Cal is a bottom half program in the Pac-12.

The top half of the AAC last year: Cincinnati, Tulsa, Memphis, Central Florida, SMU, Houston.

The bottom half of the Pac-12 last year: Arizona, WSU, Cal, Oregon State, UCLA, ASU.

It's not even close. In fact comparing the AAC and the Pac-12 top to bottom (in football) would be close.

But more to the point, if you had to bet on Cal or SMU to reach the playoff in the next five years who would take?

Dykes wasn't in over his head at the P5 level; in fact he's at a program with higher expectations now. It's really just a cultural issue, he was a fish out of water at Cal but he's found the perfect fit in Dallas where his metroplex-focused recruiting and Texas-style branding are paying off.

(07-09-2021, 10:50 AM)Giants Wrote: Too high - Harbaugh, Leach, Edwards.
Too low - Brennan, Kelly, Lake.

Jimmy Lake is two years in and already fighting against the narrative that he needs to deliver this year or be fired. Mario Cristobal's immediate success at Oregon doesn't help.

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - BostonCard - 07-09-2021

(07-09-2021, 11:51 AM)DC 86 Wrote: Mario Cristobal's immediate success at Oregon doesn't help.

It's amazing to me how much recruiting success helped shape that narrative. In three years, Cristobal has won the Pac-12 North just once. His record at Oregon is 25-10 (.714), which is pretty good but not great (by way of comparison, Mark Helfrich had a 37-16, a .698 winning percentage at Oregon before getting canned, and Helfrich at least made the national title game). The difference, of course, is that Cristobal's recruiting has been the class of the Pac-12 (top rated recruiting class in the conference each year he's been head coach) and the feeling is that the Ducks will be a force to contend with going forward, while Helfrich's recruiting was very mediocre. I suppose you could make the case that Helfrich inherited much more in the terms of talent than Cristobal, but I still remember Cristobal's Ducks couging it against us, and then doing so again the next year against Auburn (a loss that cost the Ducks a chance at the CFB playoffs). And then there was last year's season, where Cristobal's Ducks actually wound up behind Lake's Huskies in the Pac-12 North but went on to go the Pac-12 championship as a 3-2 team because of COVID at UW, beat USC to make the Fiesta Bowl where they were handled easily by Iowa State.

I am still not sold on Cristobal as a coach, but off-the-charts recruiting covers a lot of sins, which is why I have him as a buy at 16. I expect Oregon to be a top-10 team the next few years, but I expect they will underachieve relative to their top-5 recruiting talent.

BC

RE: Coach Shaw, NCAA's 19th best... - DC 86 - 07-09-2021

(07-09-2021, 01:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(07-09-2021, 11:51 AM)DC 86 Wrote: Mario Cristobal's immediate success at Oregon doesn't help.

It's amazing to me how much recruiting success helped shape that narrative. In three years, Cristobal has won the Pac-12 North just once. His record at Oregon is 25-10 (.714), which is pretty good but not great (by way of comparison, Mark Helfrich had a 37-16, a .698 winning percentage at Oregon before getting canned, and Helfrich at least made the national title game). The difference, of course, is that Cristobal's recruiting has been the class of the Pac-12 (top rated recruiting class in the conference each year he's been head coach) and the feeling is that the Ducks will be a force to contend with going forward, while Helfrich's recruiting was very mediocre. I suppose you could make the case that Helfrich inherited much more in the terms of talent than Cristobal, but I still remember Cristobal's Ducks couging it against us, and then doing so again the next year against Auburn (a loss that cost the Ducks a chance at the CFB playoffs). And then there was last year's season, where Cristobal's Ducks actually wound up behind Lake's Huskies in the Pac-12 North but went on to go the Pac-12 championship as a 3-2 team because of COVID at UW, beat USC to make the Fiesta Bowl where they were handled easily by Iowa State.

I am still not sold on Cristobal as a coach, but off-the-charts recruiting covers a lot of sins, which is why I have him as a buy at 16. I expect Oregon to be a top-10 team the next few years, but I expect they will underachieve relative to their top-5 recruiting talent.

BC

I think it's all about the trajectory. Mark Helfrich inherited a loaded team and won 24 games in his first two years, followed by 9-4 and then 4-8. Mario Cristobal inherited a program that was in real disarray following Willie Taggart's sudden departure after a 7-6 season, and then went 9-4 and 12-2 before last year's bizarre season.

According to the 247 composite their final recruiting ranking the last three seasons has been #7, #11 and #6, so top ten seasons would be pretty much in line with their recruiting, which hasn't reached the top five yet. For the sake of the Pac-12 I'll be rooting for them on September 11.