2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - Printable Version
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2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - george - 10-05-2021
10 and 2 still on the table...
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - Papa John - 10-06-2021
Stanford wins, somehow, 31-27.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - JohnR34231 - 10-07-2021
(10-06-2021, 02:20 PM)Papa John Wrote: Stanford wins, somehow, 31-27.
If we do win, that's probably a good estimate of the score.
I have my doubts, but I also had them about U$C and the Ducks, and look what happened.
As I posted before, this game smacks a little of the 2016 Washington game.
Hopefully with a much better outcome.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - Papa John - 10-07-2021
I checked on how Stanford has fared on Friday nights during the Shaw era:
2011
None
2012
Beat SJSU @ home 20-17 (season opener)
Beat UCLA @ home 27-24 (Pac-12 championship game; the teams had played each other six days earlier)
2013
None
2014
Beat WSU @ home 34-17 (Stanford had played at UND six days earlier)
Beat UCLA @ UCLA 31-10 (Stanford had played at Cal six days earlier)
2015
Beat OSU @ OSU 42-24 (Stanford had played at USC six days earlier)
Beat Iowa @ the Rose Bowl 45-16 ('nuff said!)
2016
Beat KSU @ home 26-13 (season opener)
Lost to UW @ UW 6-44 (Stanford had played at UCLA six days earlier)
Beat UNC @ the Sun Bowl 25-23
2017
Beat UW @ home 30-22 (Stanford had played at WSU six days earlier)
Lost to USC @ Pac-12 championship game 28-31 (Stanford had played home vs UND six days earlier)
2018
Beat SDSU @ home 31-10 (season opener)
2019
None
2020
Beat Cal @ Cal 24-23 (game vs WSU the week before was cancelled)
Stanford is 11-2 in Friday games. In terms of true road Friday games, Stanford is 3-1. So I shouldn't think that the short week and travel will make that big of a deal, but the UW game in 2016 sticks out like a sore thumb to me as well. That UW team was ranked #10 when we played them and finished the season 12-2 with a Pac-12 championship and a loss to Alabama in the Peach Bowl. Historically speaking, 2016 was a very good year for Stanford football--it was CMac's last season. We finished 10-3 with that McCaffrey-less Sun Bowl victory. But the preceding year was the Rose Bowl over Iowa, so 2016 has always felt like the beginning of the decline.
I don't know that this year's ASU is as good as 2016 UW, but I'm pretty sure that Stanford 2021 is not as good as Stanford 2016. I do think that McKee is a much better QB than Burns and Chryst were, so that's the basis for my prediction.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - ADPinWDC - 10-07-2021
Satan Worshippers: 31, Bold Cardinal: 20.
I don't like this matchup at all. AZST has a potent offense with a solid ground game, averaging 440 yds a game.
With a strong defense upfront that will limit what we can do in the Run game. McKee will have to throw.
Losing Tremayne (ankle) leaves McKee with Higgins and Humphries. OK, plus a couple speedsters in Bowman and Ferrell, but not tall.
Our LB Corp will be tested, but we remain thin on the D-Line, and in the secondary. Kicker Karty is OUT.
And, unlike Oregon, SDevils DO HAVE their OffCo, a very capable Zak Hill. One less day to prepare with the Friday night tiff.
Depth, or lack of it.
https://admin.gostanford.com/documents/2021/10/5/2021_Stanford_Football_Notes_06ArizonaState.pdf
Odds are AZST at -550 to win, and STAN at +400. With a spread that opened at 11 and drifted to 13 for AZST. That's steep.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/stanford-vs-arizona-state-odds-line-2021-college-football-picks-week-6-predictions-from-model-on-12-4-run/
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - OutsiderFan - 10-07-2021
This game is really simple.
ASU avg. rush: 5.5
ASU avg. rush allowed: 3.6
ASU basically +2 YPC net
Stanford avg. rush: 4.2
Stanford avg. rush allowed: 5
Stanford basically -.8 YPC net
Translation: ASU will dominate the LOS.
Even if you think Stanford might be better passing, nope.
ASU is averaging 9.8 YPA
ASU is allowing 5.8 YPA
ASU is averaging + 4 net YPA
Stanford is averaging 7.8 YPA
Stanford is allowing 6.3 YPA
Stanford is averaging + 1.5 net YPA
OK, how about PER, might Stanford have an edge there? Almost, but not quite.
ASU PER: 163.15
ASU PER Defense: 106.05
ASU +57
Stanford PER: 151.66
Stanford Pass Efficiency Defense: 115.71
Stanford +36
ASU 3rd down conversions: 51.2%
ASU 3rd down conversion Defense: 36%
Stanford 3rd down conversions: 35.6%
Stanford 3rd down conversion defense: 39%
By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - thunder_chik - 10-07-2021
Maybe we get lucky.
Stanford 28, ASU 27
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-07-2021
(10-07-2021, 04:52 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.
That largely comports to my analysis. I expect ASU to beat us handily. However, I thought that of Oregon too, and what do you know.
To the extent that Stanford has an advantage:
Turnover margin: Stanford +2; ASU -1
Penalties:
Stanford: 7.2/game for 45.8 yards/game;
Opponents: 8.2/game for 82.8 yards/game
Net 1/game for 37 yards
Stanford's penalties tend to be the 5 yard variety (Delay of game, False start) and we tend to draw a lot of 15 yard pass interferences
ASU 9.8/gm for 92 yards/game
ASU opponents 6.0/game for 57.4 yards/game
Net: -3.8/game for -34.6 yards/game
Stanford does tend to capitalize on opponent's mistakes (no time moreso than last week).
I still think it will be ASU winning 38-24, but our path to winning involves ASU with some untimely turnovers and penalties.
BC
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - CardinalSagehen - 10-07-2021
(10-07-2021, 04:52 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This game is really simple.
[...]
By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.
I don't think the stats are all that comparable.
ASU has played Southern Utah, UNLV, and Colorado, three hideously awful teams. We have played only one hideously awful team.
ASU has played two good teams and went 1-1. We've played one common opponent, but anything can happen in one game against a common opponent.
Granted, we are below ASU in every statistically based ranking system, but all systems have ASU's strength of schedule much lower than ours. If you need stats to feel better about our chances, Sagarin ranks ASU's schedule to date as 98th, while ours is ranked 7th.
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/
We may lose this game, possibly badly, but any bold proclamations such as "there is basically no chance" are just about always exaggerated in the Conference of Parity. There is a chance, and it's far greater than "basically no chance." Sagarin gives us a 30% chance, and in my opinion, it's even higher.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - qwertyuiop - 10-07-2021
(10-07-2021, 07:24 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:(10-07-2021, 04:52 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: This game is really simple.
[...]
By every measure of Offense vs. Defense, ASU is superior to Stanford. There is basically no chance Stanford can win, even without counting the fact it is a short week road game.
I don't think the stats are all that comparable.
ASU has played Southern Utah, UNLV, and Colorado, three hideously awful teams. We have played only one hideously awful team.
ASU has played two good teams and went 1-1. We've played one common opponent, but anything can happen in one game against a common opponent.
Granted, we are below ASU in every statistically based ranking system, but all systems have ASU's strength of schedule much lower than ours. If you need stats to feel better about our chances, Sagarin ranks ASU's schedule to date as 98th, while ours is ranked 7th.
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/
We may lose this game, possibly badly, but any bold proclamations such as "there is basically no chance" are just about always exaggerated in the Conference of Parity. There is a chance, and it's far greater than "basically no chance." Sagarin gives us a 30% chance, and in my opinion, it's even higher.
Longtime lurker, registered to echo this exact point. Statistical rankings, especially at this point in the season, are totally useless, since they don't equate for strength of schedule. You can get the absolute best offense and defense in the country if you play against terrible opponents.
Now, I'm not saying that we'll win. Obviously, the common opponent doesn't look great for us. But trying to use "yards per rush" vs "yards allowed per rush" or some such comparison is totally meaningless if you're not comparing against the same competition. Come late November when most of conference play has happened, I'll feel differently. Until then, don't think that Southern Utah is comparable to KSU.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - JohnR34231 - 10-08-2021
(10-07-2021, 02:07 PM)Papa John Wrote: I checked on how Stanford has fared on Friday nights during the Shaw era:
2011
None
2012
Beat SJSU @ home 20-17 (season opener)
Beat UCLA @ home 27-24 (Pac-12 championship game; the teams had played each other six days earlier)
2013
None
2014
Beat WSU @ home 34-17 (Stanford had played at UND six days earlier)
Beat UCLA @ UCLA 31-10 (Stanford had played at Cal six days earlier)
2015
Beat OSU @ OSU 42-24 (Stanford had played at USC six days earlier)
Beat Iowa @ the Rose Bowl 45-16 ('nuff said!)
2016
Beat KSU @ home 26-13 (season opener)
Lost to UW @ UW 6-44 (Stanford had played at UCLA six days earlier)
Beat UNC @ the Sun Bowl 25-23
2017
Beat UW @ home 30-22 (Stanford had played at WSU six days earlier)
Lost to USC @ Pac-12 championship game 28-31 (Stanford had played home vs UND six days earlier)
2018
Beat SDSU @ home 31-10 (season opener)
2019
None
2020
Beat Cal @ Cal 24-23 (game vs WSU the week before was cancelled)
Stanford is 11-2 in Friday games. In terms of true road Friday games, Stanford is 3-1. So I shouldn't think that the short week and travel will make that big of a deal, but the UW game in 2016 sticks out like a sore thumb to me as well. That UW team was ranked #10 when we played them and finished the season 12-2 with a Pac-12 championship and a loss to Alabama in the Peach Bowl. Historically speaking, 2016 was a very good year for Stanford football--it was CMac's last season. We finished 10-3 with that McCaffrey-less Sun Bowl victory. But the preceding year was the Rose Bowl over Iowa, so 2016 has always felt like the beginning of the decline.
I don't know that this year's ASU is as good as 2016 UW, but I'm pretty sure that Stanford 2021 is not as good as Stanford 2016. I do think that McKee is a much better QB than Burns and Chryst were, so that's the basis for my prediction.
The 2016 Washington game was so memorable because it was such a shocker.
Here we had won 15 out of the last 16 games, had the best running back in the nation, and were ranked in the top ten. Then we go up to Seattle and not only lose, but get totally dominated in every phase of the game. It was the beginning of a four game stretch where in three of those games we never scored an offensive touchdown outside of garbage time. Although we did recover (against lesser teams) to go 9-3 in that year, I agree you feel like that game was the beginning of the decline.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - Jamesy - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 04:32 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:(10-07-2021, 02:07 PM)Papa John Wrote: I checked on how Stanford has fared on Friday nights during the Shaw era:
2011
None
2012
Beat SJSU @ home 20-17 (season opener)
Beat UCLA @ home 27-24 (Pac-12 championship game; the teams had played each other six days earlier)
2013
None
2014
Beat WSU @ home 34-17 (Stanford had played at UND six days earlier)
Beat UCLA @ UCLA 31-10 (Stanford had played at Cal six days earlier)
2015
Beat OSU @ OSU 42-24 (Stanford had played at USC six days earlier)
Beat Iowa @ the Rose Bowl 45-16 ('nuff said!)
2016
Beat KSU @ home 26-13 (season opener)
Lost to UW @ UW 6-44 (Stanford had played at UCLA six days earlier)
Beat UNC @ the Sun Bowl 25-23
2017
Beat UW @ home 30-22 (Stanford had played at WSU six days earlier)
Lost to USC @ Pac-12 championship game 28-31 (Stanford had played home vs UND six days earlier)
2018
Beat SDSU @ home 31-10 (season opener)
2019
None
2020
Beat Cal @ Cal 24-23 (game vs WSU the week before was cancelled)
Stanford is 11-2 in Friday games. In terms of true road Friday games, Stanford is 3-1. So I shouldn't think that the short week and travel will make that big of a deal, but the UW game in 2016 sticks out like a sore thumb to me as well. That UW team was ranked #10 when we played them and finished the season 12-2 with a Pac-12 championship and a loss to Alabama in the Peach Bowl. Historically speaking, 2016 was a very good year for Stanford football--it was CMac's last season. We finished 10-3 with that McCaffrey-less Sun Bowl victory. But the preceding year was the Rose Bowl over Iowa, so 2016 has always felt like the beginning of the decline.
I don't know that this year's ASU is as good as 2016 UW, but I'm pretty sure that Stanford 2021 is not as good as Stanford 2016. I do think that McKee is a much better QB than Burns and Chryst were, so that's the basis for my prediction.
The 2016 Washington game was so memorable because it was such a shocker.
Here we had won 15 out of the last 16 games, had the best running back in the nation, and were ranked in the top ten. Then we go up to Seattle and not only lose, but get totally dominated in every phase of the game. It was the beginning of a four game stretch where in three of those games we never scored an offensive touchdown outside of garbage time. Although we did recover (against lesser teams) to go 9-3 in that year, I agree you feel like that game was the beginning of the decline.
The 2016 Washington games did stick out, but in 2016, we had a late night, physically and mentally exhausting thriller at UCLA with a late night return to campus the week prior. This year, we had an early afternoon kickoff and though physically beat-up, got a good night's sleep in our own beds afterwards. Conversely, ASU had a late night game at the Rose Bowl and I hope the effects of one less night of good sleep outweigh the benefit of being at home for them.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - Dyocard86son - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 02:15 PM)Jamesy Wrote:(10-08-2021, 04:32 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:(10-07-2021, 02:07 PM)Papa John Wrote: I checked on how Stanford has fared on Friday nights during the Shaw era:
2011
None
2012
Beat SJSU @ home 20-17 (season opener)
Beat UCLA @ home 27-24 (Pac-12 championship game; the teams had played each other six days earlier)
2013
None
2014
Beat WSU @ home 34-17 (Stanford had played at UND six days earlier)
Beat UCLA @ UCLA 31-10 (Stanford had played at Cal six days earlier)
2015
Beat OSU @ OSU 42-24 (Stanford had played at USC six days earlier)
Beat Iowa @ the Rose Bowl 45-16 ('nuff said!)
2016
Beat KSU @ home 26-13 (season opener)
Lost to UW @ UW 6-44 (Stanford had played at UCLA six days earlier)
Beat UNC @ the Sun Bowl 25-23
2017
Beat UW @ home 30-22 (Stanford had played at WSU six days earlier)
Lost to USC @ Pac-12 championship game 28-31 (Stanford had played home vs UND six days earlier)
2018
Beat SDSU @ home 31-10 (season opener)
2019
None
2020
Beat Cal @ Cal 24-23 (game vs WSU the week before was cancelled)
Stanford is 11-2 in Friday games. In terms of true road Friday games, Stanford is 3-1. So I shouldn't think that the short week and travel will make that big of a deal, but the UW game in 2016 sticks out like a sore thumb to me as well. That UW team was ranked #10 when we played them and finished the season 12-2 with a Pac-12 championship and a loss to Alabama in the Peach Bowl. Historically speaking, 2016 was a very good year for Stanford football--it was CMac's last season. We finished 10-3 with that McCaffrey-less Sun Bowl victory. But the preceding year was the Rose Bowl over Iowa, so 2016 has always felt like the beginning of the decline.
I don't know that this year's ASU is as good as 2016 UW, but I'm pretty sure that Stanford 2021 is not as good as Stanford 2016. I do think that McKee is a much better QB than Burns and Chryst were, so that's the basis for my prediction.
The 2016 Washington game was so memorable because it was such a shocker.
Here we had won 15 out of the last 16 games, had the best running back in the nation, and were ranked in the top ten. Then we go up to Seattle and not only lose, but get totally dominated in every phase of the game. It was the beginning of a four game stretch where in three of those games we never scored an offensive touchdown outside of garbage time. Although we did recover (against lesser teams) to go 9-3 in that year, I agree you feel like that game was the beginning of the decline.
The 2016 Washington games did stick out, but in 2016, we had a late night, physically and mentally exhausting thriller at UCLA with a late night return to campus the week prior. This year, we had an early afternoon kickoff and though physically beat-up, got a good night's sleep in our own beds afterwards. Conversely, ASU had a late night game at the Rose Bowl and I hope the effects of one less night of good sleep outweigh the benefit of being at home for them.
Starting to really like this Stanford team but not this matchup.
Asu Hellspawn 31
Stanford 24
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - gailtate - 10-08-2021
These "prediction" threads are tiresome. They're robbed of meaning because it's a homer's wish list, not a collection of real predictions. I would like to see what people think, not what they want. I already know what they want. Anybody agree?
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - GoodGrief - 10-08-2021
Us 45
Them 16
I like predicting what I want.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 03:51 PM)gailtate Wrote: These "prediction" threads are tiresome. They're robbed of meaning because it's a homer's wish list, not a collection of real predictions. I would like to see what people think, not what they want. I already know what they want. Anybody agree?
I hope my prediction of a 42-24 ASU win doesn't wind up being wishful thinking; we'd be in real trouble then.
BC
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - pefloresjr - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 03:51 PM)gailtate Wrote: These "prediction" threads are tiresome. They're robbed of meaning because it's a homer's wish list, not a collection of real predictions. I would like to see what people think, not what they want. I already know what they want. Anybody agree?
Not me. It's impossible to know how much is thoughts v. hopes even if people claim it from the hilltops and it is foolish to try. Vote the way you want and let others vote the way they want.
Cheers,
Pete F.
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - winflop - 10-08-2021
(10-08-2021, 03:51 PM)gailtate Wrote: These "prediction" threads are tiresome. They're robbed of meaning because it's a homer's wish list, not a collection of real predictions. I would like to see what people think, not what they want. I already know what they want. Anybody agree?
If you don't like them, don't read them and definitely don't comment on them :)
I make predictions based on what I think the outcome will be. If I did them based on what I want I would be DFL
RE: 2021 Stanford at Arizona State Predictions Thread - BostonCard - 10-09-2021
(10-08-2021, 03:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(10-08-2021, 03:51 PM)gailtate Wrote: These "prediction" threads are tiresome. They're robbed of meaning because it's a homer's wish list, not a collection of real predictions. I would like to see what people think, not what they want. I already know what they want. Anybody agree?
I hope my prediction of a 42-24 ASU win doesn't wind up being wishful thinking; we'd be in real trouble then.
BC
Funny enough, I nailed the spread (18 points), but missed the O/U by 28 points. Honestly, there was enough offense for a 66 point game, but a lot of futile drives by both teams.
BC