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Thoughts on the Stanford-ASU Matchup - Printable Version

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Thoughts on the Stanford-ASU Matchup - Snorlax94 - 10-08-2021

I watched the ASU-UCLA and ASU-BYU games to get a sense of tonight's opponent.

My first impression is that they are a similar team to Stanford in that their offense features a very accurate quarterback throwing to big, fast, capable receivers who can use their size to drive forward for yards after the catch. 

One of the big questions tonight is who can be the biggest quarterback -- Daniels or McKee. I had heard all the accolades for Daniels going into the season and wow is he impressive. He *routinely* drops over-the-shoulder passes into the full-sprint front basket of his deep receivers. I don't know the last time I saw a college quarterback do that consistently. McKee has been a delight this season, and the question is how fast can he grow? Can he maintain consistency? Can he take it higher facing probably the best QB we will see this season?

Another similarity between the two teams is a great punting game. On one ASU punt vs UCLA, the kicker dropped it perfectly in the corner on the 3 yard line (!) Stanford often comes into games winning the specialty games component -- they can win a game even with fewer total yards because of how much better they punt, but I don't think that advantage will be there this game. Plus the FG kicker is out, which is why my predicted score for Stanford is a multiple of 7. Stanford almost *relies* on winning the punting field position game, and getting pinned inside the 5 makes Shaw awfully cautious, so this is a dangerous phase to lose.

In terms of some good news, if Stanford has a kryptonite, it's facing a great, superfast running game and facing a running QB. UCLA had that, and to some extent, so did KState. I don't think that's ASU's strength. Daniels can move, and maybe they just run very little because they pass so well, but hopefully we can limit their rushing yards. It doesn't feel like a Chip Kelly running game, for example.

Another Kryptonite for Stanford is when they lose the battle at the LOS. During the UCLA game in particular, I was just stunned and dismayed to see the OLine get beat. It looked pretty bad from the stands. And then they come out against a vaunted Oregon and I think, overall, win that battle. Was that an aberration, or was the Oregon game the beginning of a trend? If Stanford can get its running game going, it can grind out drives and keep Daniels off the field.

Looking for keys in "How to Beat ASU" I watched ASU's loss to BYU. ASU had four turnovers that game, including fumbling the opening kickoff deep in their territory, two interceptions, and another fumble. Stanford can't rely on that ever happening again, but against such a great opponent, they'll probably need to win the turnover battle to have a chance. If I remember correctly, they had a pick in every game except the UCLA game, and we saw how that turned out.

The final bad news about ASU -- 
I am so impressed with their QB and passing game, that when they pull ahead, I feel like it's a really dangerous scenario. They're a hard team to come back against, and if Stanford comes out flat, ASU could pile on the points.

Two wildcards -- 
First, one of the ASU defenders was ejected for targeting in the second half of the UCLA game, so they start without one of their defenders.

Second, and this is very unShaw-like, but Coach Shaw made some public comments about ASU's recruiting violations a few weeks ago. You know coaches are gonna circle that date, and when that coach has a great team, the news is uh oh. The good news is that ASU was busy last week trying to beat a tough in-division rival (UCLA) and have had only a short week, so hopefully Edwards hasn't had to much time to dwell on his plans for revenge. 

The final two pieces of good news for Stanford -- 
I think both UCLA and BYU were able to get their running game going against them. The ASU defensive front looks very large, but I felt both UCLA and BYU were sometimes able to pick their way through -- and when they did, I felt there were opportunities when the running back was able to get to the second level (linebackers). If the OLIne can create the openings and maintain their blocks, I could see some nice opportunities for Peat picking his way through and switching it into overdrive, and if EJ Smith is back healthy, this is the kind of matchup that I think could be a good fit.

The final piece of good news -- ASU almost seems to rely on assuming its big, physical, fast receivers will get open, win the toss-ups, and can roast their defender on a 1:1. Stanford has been working for years to build a tall, lanky, fast, physical, NFL style secondary to stop exactly that. If they can step it up, if they can stay healthy, and if they can not get beat when left on an island (let's go corners!), ASU could be facing a challenge they're not used to facing. 

I think Shaw said something like Stanford played its best game -- but not a complete game -- against Oregon, but that it will need to this week against its best opponent yet -- ASU. I agree. This is a really tough game against a great opponent, but I think Stanford has the tools to win if the players can step up to the next level and play a complete game.

RE: Thoughts on the Stanford-ASU Matchup - Griffins78 - 10-08-2021

Thanks for the thoughtful writeup. I haven't had a chance to watch ASU play yet so appreciate your sharing what you've observed and your perspective.

Our young DBs have had to grow up fast and keep getting better. And as you point out, having to practice against our big, tall receivers has to help prepare them for tonight

RE: Thoughts on the Stanford-ASU Matchup - CTcard - 10-08-2021

ASU and UCLA have in many ways similar offenses.

Daniels is the top rushing QB in the conference (59 yds/gm; 6.98 yds/carry) and DTR is #2 (43 yds/gm, 3.34 yds/carry).
Both mostly want to run the ball. UCLA runs 64.4% of all plays, ASU 60.2%.
Both then have efficient but not prolific passing games, the top two teams in PER in the conference. Daniels does so with a higher completion percentage whereas DTR leads the conference in PER mostly due to lots of big plays but a lower completion percentage.
ASU plays relatively slowly, though not so much as Stanford. They have only run 21 more plays over 5 games than has Stanford. UCLA runs more plays.
UCLA has more of a marquee running back with Charbonnet at 90 yds/gm, 6.6 yds/att. ASU's top back White is at 66 yds/gm, 5.2 yds/att.

Stanford had periods of success against UCLA's offense, but started rough then couldn't hold at the end.