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WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - Printable Version

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WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - JustAnotherFan - 10-19-2021

South Carolina #1 with 14 first place votes.
UConn #2 with 10 first place votes.
Stanford #3 with 5 first place votes.

I love the disrespect. 

https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/32430350/south-carolina-gamecocks-atop-ap-preseason-women-college-basketball-poll-again-uconn-huskies-no-2

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - BostonCard - 10-19-2021

I don't think it is disrespectful at all.  I think both UConn and South Carolina are loaded with talent.

BC

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - 2006alum - 10-19-2021

I'm with BC - all three bring back almost all of their talent from last year, and all three have winning coaches, but SCar and UConn have slightly better frosh classes than we do, and we lost a more critical player (Kiana Williams) than either of them, so it's not unreasonable to give them both a slight edge. My view is UCLA and Arizona got slighted a bit, OSU got the benefit of the doubt, and Baylor is *way* overranked given all the unknowns. Also interesting (and correct, IMHO) that Kim and LSU are no where to be seen. My initial perception was that she'd likely pick up right where she left off in Baton Rouge, but her recruiting and transfer pool success has been limited so far, so it'll be interesting to see how quickly she can climb back up the ranks.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - JustAnotherFan - 10-19-2021

Maybe so. But if SC or UConn won it all and only lost one starter and Stanford brought everyone back I think we'd still be ranked #3.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - TheFarm07 - 10-19-2021

Though it would have been nice to be ranked #1 as the defending champions, we suffered the biggest loss of the three to graduation - Kiana Williams. Did South Carolina and/or UConn lose anyone? At least none of their starters, maybe a bench player.

Plus as said, their freshman class is insanely loaded - the Huskies have the #1 and #5 recruits and the Gamecocks have the three other Top 5 recruits, and they were a Boston missed tip-in from playing in the title game instead of us.

So from my perspective, it was reasonable that we're #3. The non-conference schedule will show us where we are this year. To successfully defend our title, we'll have to replace the points and outside shooting Kiana provided and see how well whoever takes over in the guard position next to Wilson can do - some combination of Van Gytenbeek, Hamilton and/or Brown. Can Brink make that next step in limiting her foul trouble so that she can stay on the floor for longer stretches at a time and how much contribution can the freshmen make?

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - ca245 - 10-19-2021

Doesn't really matter now. When it will matter is at tournament time. Because of the significant talent drop-off after UConn, USCar, and Stanford, there is a big advantage in being seeded #1 and avoiding a #2 v #3 matchup in the semis (assuming seedings hold).

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - teejers1 - 10-19-2021

(10-19-2021, 12:04 PM)2006alum Wrote:  I'm with BC - all three bring back almost all of their talent from last year, and all three have winning coaches, but SCar and UConn have slightly better frosh classes than we do, and we lost a more critical player (Kiana Williams) than either of them, so it's not unreasonable to give them both a slight edge. My view is UCLA and Arizona got slighted a bit, OSU got the benefit of the doubt, and Baylor is *way* overranked given all the unknowns. Also interesting (and correct, IMHO) that Kim and LSU are no where to be seen. My initial perception was that she'd likely pick up right where she left off in Baton Rouge, but her recruiting and transfer pool success has been limited so far, so it'll be interesting to see how quickly she can climb back up the ranks.

Don't sleep on Louisville.  They are lurking at #6 and I expect them to be a force in NCAAs based on guard play alone, though I think they lost star Evans.  Plus, I believe the Louisville coach openly admitted that he viewed the Transfer Portal as form of free agency and expected to pick off some big time contributors.  No clue if he did that, but wouldn't surprise me.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - norcard - 10-19-2021

(10-19-2021, 11:58 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  I don't think it is disrespectful at all.  I think both UConn and South Carolina are loaded with talent.

BC

This - Stanford was a missed bucket away from losing the NC game.  And it was an ugly game.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - BostonCard - 10-19-2021

(10-19-2021, 01:52 PM)norcard Wrote:  This - Stanford was a missed bucket away from losing the NC game.  And it was an ugly game.

Better to be a missed bucket away from losing the NC game than a missed bucket away from winning it, and it was no less ugly for our opponents who fell short (I'm thinking of both South Carolina and Arizona).

BC

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - joemontes - 10-20-2021

(10-19-2021, 01:07 PM)TheFarm07 Wrote:  Though it would have been nice to be ranked #1 as the defending champions, we suffered the biggest loss of the three to graduation - Kiana Williams. Did South Carolina and/or UConn lose anyone? At least none of their starters, maybe a bench player.

Plus as said, their freshman class is insanely loaded - the Huskies have the #1 and #5 recruits and the Gamecocks have the three other Top 5 recruits, and they were a Boston missed tip-in from playing in the title game instead of us.

So from my perspective, it was reasonable that we're #3. THE NON-CONFERENCE SCHEDULE WILL SHOW US WHERE WE ARE THIS YEAR. To successfully defend our title, we'll have to replace the points and outside shooting Kiana provided and see how well whoever takes over in the guard position next to Wilson can do - some combination of Van Gytenbeek, Hamilton and/or Brown. Can Brink make that next step in limiting her foul trouble so that she can stay on the floor for longer stretches at a time and how much contribution can the freshmen make?

Exactly!  

And here is pre-season #3 Stanford's OOC schedule vs pre-season ranked teams, that will be their initial gauge:

11/14   -   vs  #25  Texas
11/25   -   vs    #8  Indiana               (neutral)
11/26   -   vs  #21  South Florida     (neutral) 
11/27   -   vs    #4  Maryland            (neutral)
12/18   -   @  #15  Tennessee
12/21   -   @    #1  South Carolina

And their pre-season ranked PAC 12 opponents:

01/07   -   vs  #10  Oregon
01/09   -   vs  #14  Oregon State
01/30   -   vs  #22  Arizona
02/03   -   @  #20  UCLA
02/18   -   @  #14  Oregon State
02/20   -   @  #10  Oregon


Pre-Season #1  SOUTH CAROLINA:
****************************

Pre-season #1 South Carolina will also be extremely battle-tested in their OOC schedule:

11/09   -    @    #5  NC State

(Note: The following 11/21 and 11/22 are most likely opponents)
11/21   -    vs  #10  Oregon          (neutral)  
11/22   -    vs    #2  UConn           (neutral)

12/12   -    vs    #4  Maryland
12/21   -    vs    #3  Stanford
01/27   -    vs    #2  UConn

And their schedule vs SEC pre-season ranked teams:

01/09   -    vs   #13  Kentucky
01/13   -    vs   #23  Texas A&M
02/10   -    @   #13  Kentucky
02/20   -    vs   #15  Tennessee
02/24   -    @   #23  Texas A&M


#2  UConn:
*********

Here's pre-season #2 UConn's equally ambitious OOC schedule vs pre-season ranked teams:

(Note:  The following 11/21 and 11/22 are most likely opponents)
11/21   -     vs  #21  South Florida       (neutral)
11/22   -     vs    #1  South Carolina     (neutral)

12/09   -     @  #17  Georgia Tech
12/11   -     vs  #20  UCLA                      (neutral)
12/19   -     vs   #6   Louisville
01/17   -     @  #10  Oregon
01/27   -     @    #1  South Carolina

UConn will have to rely heavily on their OOC schedule, as they will not face any pre-season ranked team from their Big East conference.


FINAL NOTE:
**********
It's interesting to note that pre-season #1 South Carolina and #2 UConn could face each other twice in their respective OOC schedule.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - BostonCard - 10-20-2021

Gotta give South Carolina credit, going up against the pre-season ranked #2 (possibly twice), #3, #4, and #5.
It's generally really great that nobody loads up on cupcakes in the pre-season.

BC

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - WBB fan - 10-20-2021

I think there's much validity in all that's been said in this thread. But I do want to add -- I think the Pac 12 has been a bit slighted vs other conference rankings in this poll. My guess is that the Pac 12 is going to be another brobdingnagian challenge all season long -- the conference is loaded.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - 81alum - 10-20-2021

I love our team, and I am very proud of what it accomplished last year.  That said, I do not think we are the favorites to repeat. 

1) Last year was the most unusual year in the history of NCAA WBB.  I think it may have helped us more than it hurt us.  Who knows whether we can sustain the same focus we had in a more "normal" year.

2) We barely eeked out two wins to take the national championship.     We also lost twice along the way and looked quite beatable at times.  We would get leads and then let games become competitive again.  We were no juggernaut.  Many of our teams in past years looked more dominant for more of the season that last year's team did.

3) We don't yet know whether we will have an adequate replacement for Williams.  We hope so, but no one really knows yet.  If none of the possibilities work out, then our stock will plummet.  Not having a recognized, excellent point guard is enough of a reasons to question our prospects.  

4) Repeating will require certain players to improve from last year.  Brink has to defend effectively without fouling, Belibi needs to get her mojo back that she appears to have lost in the second half of last year.  We have no way yet of knowing if this will happen.  For example, for several years I felt we would be a contender if only Dodson played up to her potential, but she never quite did.  Will that be true of our developing players this year or will we see major improvement from someone like Brink?

Before these questions are answered, I think we deserve to be thought of as a likely final four team, but no more.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - joemontes - 10-21-2021

Talent-wise based on HS rankings, these 3 are Top 3 in the country, with UConn at #1, SC  a close #2, and Stanford a distant #3. 


UCONN:
******
2017  -    #2   Evina WESTBROOK          PG        6'0
2018  -    #1   Christyn WILLIAMS          SG        5'11
2018  -    #5   Olivia NELSON-ODODA   C          6'5
2019  -  #21   Aubrey GRIFFIN               SF        6'1
2020  -    #1   Paige BUECKERS              PG       5'11
2020  -  #23   Aaliyah EDWARDS           SF        6'2
2020  -  #25   Mir MCLEAN                    SG       5'11 
2021  -    #1   Azzi FUDD                        SG       5'11
2021  -    #5   Caroline DUCHARME      SG       6'2
2021  -  #15   Amari DEBERRY                C         6'5
2021  -  #30   Saylor POFFENBARGER   SG       6'2

Summary:
********
Overall #1 (3x) ; Top 5 (6x) ; Top 10 (6x) ; Top 25 (10x)


SOUTH CAROLINA:
***************
2018  -    #6   Destanni HENDERSON     PG       5'8
2018  -   #48  Victoria SAXTON               PF       6'2   
2019  -    #3   Aaliyah BOSTON                C         6'5
2019  -    #4   Zia COOKE                         SG        5'9
2019  -   #10  Laeticia AMIHERE             PF        6'3
2019  -   #11  Breanna BEAL                   SF        6'0
2020  -    #5   Kamilla CARDOSO             C         6'6
2020  -   #43  Eniya RUSSELL                   PG       5'11
2021  -    #2   Raven JOHNSON                PG       5'8
2021  -    #3   Saniya RIVERS                    SG       6'0
2021  -    #4   Sania FEAGIN                     PF        6'3
2021  -  #14   Aubryanna HALL                SG       5'11 

Summary:
********
Top 5 (6x) ;  Top 10 (7x) ;  Top 25 (10x)


STANFORD:
*********
2018  -  #14   Lexi HULL                       SG       6'0
2018  -  #18   Jenna BROWN                PG       5'10
2019  -    #1   Haley JONES                   SF        6'1 
2019  -  #15    Ashten PRECHTEL          C        6'5
2019  -  #19    Fran BELIBI                    PF       6'1
2019  -  #50    Hannah JUMP                SG       6'0
2020  -    #3    Cameron BRINK            PF/C    6'4
2020  -  #39    Jana VAN GYTENBEEK   PG       5'7
2021  -  #11    Brooke DEMETRE          SF        6'3
2021  -  #18    Kiki IRAFEN                    PF        6'3
2021  -  #78    Jzaniya HARRIEL            PG       5'11

Summary:
********
Overall # 1 (1x) ; Top 5 (2x) ; Top 10 (2x) ; Top 25 (8x)

Next season, Stanford will have TWO (2) Overall #1's in Haley JONES and Lauren BETTS, plus Class of 2020's #3 Cameron BRINK.
Hopefully, Class of 2022's #2 Kiki RICE also joins the Cardinal...

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - teejers1 - 10-21-2021

(10-20-2021, 10:41 PM)81alum Wrote:  I love our team, and I am very proud of what it accomplished last year.  That said, I do not think we are the favorites to repeat. 

1) Last year was the most unusual year in the history of NCAA WBB.  I think it may have helped us more than it hurt us.  Who knows whether we can sustain the same focus we had in a more "normal" year.

2) We barely eeked out two wins to take the national championship.     We also lost twice along the way and looked quite beatable at times.  We would get leads and then let games become competitive again.  We were no juggernaut.  Many of our teams in past years looked more dominant for more of the season that last year's team did.

3) We don't yet know whether we will have an adequate replacement for Williams.  We hope so, but no one really knows yet.  If none of the possibilities work out, then our stock will plummet.  Not having a recognized, excellent point guard is enough of a reasons to question our prospects.  

4) Repeating will require certain players to improve from last year.  Brink has to defend effectively without fouling, Belibi needs to get her mojo back that she appears to have lost in the second half of last year.  We have no way yet of knowing if this will happen.  For example, for several years I felt we would be a contender if only Dodson played up to her potential, but she never quite did.  Will that be true of our developing players this year or will we see major improvement from someone like Brink?

Before these questions are answered, I think we deserve to be thought of as a likely final four team, but no more.

Guard play is crucial, particularly in the NCAAs.  Last year revealed that in several instances - AZ, Louisville come immediately to mind.  Even UConn.  What's interesting is that Stanford eked out a title w/o stellar play from Ki in the Final Four.  But she was still good, even if not Peak Kiana.  Stanford is not going to have a Peak Kiana guard on this year's team.  Period.  Thus, Wilson, JVG, and the NW transfer are going to have to be good in their roles (moving ball, making open shots, and feeding posts) for Stanford to compete against the elite teams.  But in games there are invariably times when the O isn't working and you need a player to break down a defender one-on-one.  Kiana could do that.  I don't think any guard on the current roster can (at least that I've seen play).  That could be Stanford's Achilles Heel this season.  (I do think Brink can beat any post player one on one - whether face up or back to the basket - but it's tough to get that isolation for bigs).

And just because it cannot be overemphasized:  Stanford made it to the Final Four (and won the championship), thanks to Big Red.  As I said real time, I hope the Prechtel family has the tape of the Louisville coach's post-game interview for posterity.  Rarely does a non-starter get that kind of love/respect from an opposing (and losing) coach.  [Paraphrasing]:  

Q.  Coach, what would you say happened today?
A.   Ashten Prechtel happened.

It doesn't get any more awesome than that!

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - BostonCard - 10-21-2021

Sometimes an individual can put the team on their back to win a title, but I think Stanford won the title as a team.  For one, the team played awesome defense.  We held all our opponents to 65 or fewer points.  Holding Arizona to 53 points in the final meant that we could have a relatively low-scoring game and still win.  Secondly, we had different players step up at different times (Prechtel against Louisville, Williams early in the tournament, Jump against Missouri St., Jones in the final four).  We weren't dependent on one player (as Arizona was) or even a couple stars (as South Carolina was).  And, lastly, as you mention, last year was an unusual year.  I think Stanford benefited in the sense of responding well to the adversity of having to go on the road and living in a hotel for much of the season; it probably prepared them well for the grind of the NCAA tournament.  However, one could also envision everything having fallen apart for the team and having an early exit in the tournament, where the narrative would have been "they were just exhausted from playing the whole season on the road".  Honestly, if you told me that we would spend half of December and all of January on the road, and asked me to predict what happened to the team "national champions" would have been way down on my list.  I think it is a testament to the grit of the team that they didn't fold.

BC

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - teejers1 - 10-21-2021

(10-21-2021, 11:04 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Sometimes an individual can put the team on their back to win a title, but I think Stanford won the title as a team.  For one, the team played awesome defense.  We held all our opponents to 65 or fewer points.  Holding Arizona to 53 points in the final meant that we could have a relatively low-scoring game and still win.  Secondly, we had different players step up at different times (Prechtel against Louisville, Williams early in the tournament, Jump against Missouri St., Jones in the final four).  We weren't dependent on one player (as Arizona was) or even a couple stars (as South Carolina was).  And, lastly, as you mention, last year was an unusual year.  I think Stanford benefited in the sense of responding well to the adversity of having to go on the road and living in a hotel for much of the season; it probably prepared them well for the grind of the NCAA tournament.  However, one could also envision everything having fallen apart for the team and having an early exit in the tournament, where the narrative would have been "they were just exhausted from playing the whole season on the road".  Honestly, if you told me that we would spend half of December and all of January on the road, and asked me to predict what happened to the team "national champions" would have been way down on my list.  I think it is a testament to the grit of the team that they didn't fold.

BC

But when the alternative - at least at Stanford - is to be isolated at off-campus place except for practices and games in Redwood City or somewhere else across county lines, then I think the "we're all going to stay at Hotel X in City Y for this period; then pick up and move to City Z for that period" was a net positive for the kids' emotional well-being.  Same for the football team.  Road Warriors can definitely be draining and tiring; but given the alternative (i.e., none in Santa Clara County), it was an outlook booster for the competitors.

RE: WBB: I love that we are only ranked #3!! - 2006alum - 10-21-2021

I agree that ideally we'd have a PG who can create on her own, but Haley Jones often plays as a point forward and she can (and does) create on her own (see, e.g., the final four games), so I actually think we're better off right now than in some teams of yore where the lack of a off-the-dribble PG was our weakness (i.e., the the post-Wiggins, pre-Orrange years and the Sniezek years). Not ideal, for sure, but I'm less worried about that than about (a) press defenses (which Ki was not amazing at handling, but was perfectly solid at) and, relatedly (b) turnovers, because whereas Jones can create on her own, she can also toss it away *a lot* when running the offense. At times sloppy half-court play all but killed us.