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Injury analysis - 97fan - 11-06-2011

We obviously need to get healthier for the Oregon game. But having certain guys sidelined would hurt more than others. Here's how I'd rank the ranks of the injured, from most important for our chances against Oregon to least important.

1) Fleming. If Mabry starts, I think he's likely to commit at least one and maybe two drive-killing penalties. That is crucial in a game like this. In addition, the pass protection will be better if Fleming plays. I really hope that he was held out of the OSU game out of caution and with the big picture of the entire season in mind.
2) Howell. Without his tackling, a 10-yard run by the Ducks' explosive backs can easily become an 80-yard run. Again, I hope this is a situation where Delano could have played against the Beavers, but the coaching staff realized it made sense to get him as close to 100% as possible for Nov. 12.
2a) Williamson. The difference in kickoffs between Williamson and Whitaker has been big. We can't afford to help the Ducks' offense by giving them great field position.
4) Ertz/Toilolo (tie). These guys are both great players for us, but I think we have more ways to cover for their absences than the guys above them on this list. Hopefully at least one of them will play, though - Shaw said last night that Levine will be ready.
6) Browning. No one's talking about this injury - anyone have any idea what happened? - but losing him would hurt our depth at CB. I like Brown as a replacement starter, but depth all across the defense is always a key against the Ducks.

I'm not including Owusu on this list because I don't think he will or should play.

Re: Injury analysis - Farm93 - 11-06-2011

Fleming & Howell will play next week.  I think they would have played this week if Oregon State was a little better, the game was at home and/or Oregon was not on Nov 12.
Williamson probably was an opponent, turf, weather style coaches' decision too.  At least I hope so.
I believe Stanford has already indicated Toilolo will play next week.

Ertz almost certainly will not play, and that's too bad.  C.a.l has issues, so I would expect to see Ertz return for Notre Dame.

Browning - No clue what happened.

Owusu - Just don't see how he returns this calendar year.

Re: Injury analysis - Cardinal96 - 11-06-2011

Do we have good knowledge that Fleming and, particularly, Howell will play?  We really need Howell.

Re: Injury analysis - Spiny_Norman - 11-06-2011

Have not heard a word about Lyons but I don't expect to see him either.  We have become so thin in the secondary that true frosh Richards started yesterday and I believe that I saw walk on Myles Muagututia as nickel back.  Amanam (former RB) and Gatewood (listed on the roster as WR) were making plays at the end of the game as well

Re: Injury analysis - iyengar06 - 11-06-2011

Myles was playing over Devon Carrington, and not because Carrington was hurt (Carrington played late in the game). Carrington has missed a lot of tackles in the last month, but even so, I was surprised to see the former walk-on taking his place. Indeed, Myles was in there from the get-go; saw him in on the Beavers' first drive.

Gatewood also appeared as a DB in the first half. The fact that Myles and Gatewood were playing meaningful snaps on defense yesterday tells you everything you need to know about our secondary depth without Delano and Browning. We need them both in a big way. Incidentally, Lyons has tweeted that he isn't coming back this year, so we can rule him out.

Here's how I'd rank our needs from an injury standpoint:

1. Delano - Experienced leader. Sound tackler. Heart and soul.
2. Williamson - the difference in opponents' field position when Whitaker handles kickoffs is worth about 10 points per game.
3. Browning - we are gutted in the secondary.
4. Fleming - Agree about Mabry's propensity for bad penalties, but aside from that, I don't think there's that big of a dropoff in performance.
5. Toilolo - A nice weapon to have on third down, and a asset in the run game. As 97fan mentioned, though, we have some flexibility in terms of offsetting his absence.

I'm assuming there's absolutely zero chance Ertz or Owusu plays.

Re: Injury analysis - washingtonismoney - 11-06-2011

Heard a groin pull but can't find where I saw it.

If so, that's one of those injuries that's hard to predict.

What happened with Wilkerson? He was gimpy after his last carry--I figure he's OK but never heard anything to the contrary.

Re: Injury analysis - metsjetsfan - 11-06-2011

(11-06-2011, 01:23 PM)iyengar06 link Wrote:2. Williamson - the difference in opponents' field position when Whitaker handles kickoffs is worth about 10 points per game.

I believe the inept kickoffs by Whitaker are simply his awful attempts at angling pooch or squib kicks.  For U$C, it seemed that the gameplan was to avoid sending the ball to Woods and concede the 30-35 yard line for U$C to start at.  Unfortunately, Whitaker couldn't figure out how to do that without sending the ball out of bounds or near the 40-45 yard line.  Against OSU, I think the only bad kick, again, was an attempt to squib it.  But I would imagine he spends this entire week practicing those types of kicks in preparation for De'Anthony Thomas/LaMichael James this Saturday.

Otherwise, if he's given the green light to just hit the ball as far as possible, I don't think Whitaker is horrible at kickoffs.  My main concern is that Whitaker would be shaky past 35-40 yards a la the Alabama kicker.  Missed 40-50 yd FGs could potentially be devastating by giving Oregon great field position. 

He almost missed the PAT in the 2nd overtime against U$C, which shows that he definitely does not have ice in his veins.  So in high pressure situations, such as a last minute FG, I'd be VERY worried about his ability to put even a 35 yarder through the uprights.  Williamson, on the surface, would appear to have gained enough confidence over the first 7 games so the pressure wouldn't affect him as much.  But you never know (see Boise State All-American senior kicker last year).

Re: Injury analysis - estephan500 - 11-06-2011



If someone in the know could construct a simple list, one row for each of our wounded, listing (1) any confirmed status and (2) any subjective sense of likelihood of status, it would be greatly appreciated by the attention-defecited among us.  And hey, we include owusu out of respect but most of us pray that it is just pro forma.

Re: Injury analysis - iyengar06 - 11-06-2011

(11-06-2011, 10:34 PM)metsjetsfan link Wrote:My main concern is that Whitaker would be shaky past 35-40 yards a la the Alabama kicker.  Missed 40-50 yd FGs could potentially be devastating by giving Oregon great field position.

I imagine that if Williamson is still out and we have a 4th and "manageable" with the option for a 35+ yard field goal, Shaw will think very hard about just going for it. With a yard or yard a half to go, Stewart is a sure thing. On longer plays, Griff is money, while Toilolo, Hewitt, and Terrell are good options too.

Re: Injury analysis - metsjetsfan - 11-07-2011

According to his twitter, looks like Ertz is not guaranteed to be out, and he's still working to get back.  Still wouldn't count on him being active though...

@ZERTZ_86 Hope you get healthy soon, Zach. We need you this weekend against Oregon.
@dmclennan doing everything in my power to get back ASAP

@ZERTZ_86 you playin next week?? we missed ya today!
@WarninTracPwr well see! I'm doin everything I can


Re: Injury analysis - fullmetal - 11-07-2011

Right about going for it on 4th down--maybe we'll just throw the Mike Leach philosophy out there and go for it on any fourth down with four or fewer yards to go.  It may be one of those games where our offense has to step up and take risks to ease the defense's burden.  In offense I trust.

Re: Injury analysis - KartyFan - 11-07-2011

Interesting that most are focusing on kickoffs with Williamson's injury. I would be much more concerned about an attempt at a 40+ yard field goal by Whitaker. While he hasn't missed yet, many of his kicks have been quite shaky.

Re: Injury analysis - Renaissance Man - 11-07-2011

Max Bergen seemed to be absent Saturday, or off the field enough for me to wonder where he was.?.

Re: Injury analysis - washingtonismoney - 11-07-2011

I definitely saw him out there in garbage time. I think the coaches just prefer Lancaster/Tarpley at this point.

Re: Injury analysis - terry - 11-07-2011

In the spring game in 2010, Eric Whitaker hit a 45 yard FG in regulation, then in the sudden death FG overtime, he connected from 43, 43, 43, and 53 yards, before missing from 53. So, he has the range to make longer FGs, and he was able to make several of them in front of a decent crowd with at least something on the line. So take that for what it's worth.

Bergen has been replaced by Tarpley most of the time.

Richards started at OSU in place of Howell. Muagututia was the 5th DB in the nickel. (By the way, he's on scholarship now.) Both of them were ahead of Carrington in the rotation last Saturday.

Re: Injury analysis - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2011

Carrington...On one hand, no one's better on the team when the ball's in the air. On the other, no one's worse when the ball's in someone's hands.