Shaw's survival strategy? - Printable Version

Shaw's survival strategy? - Printable Version

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Shaw's survival strategy? - Row80Critic - 12-11-2021

Is Shaw going to trash the Denny's menu? Will he fire the cronies in favor of a qualified staff? Will strength and conditioning become a priority again, not to mention basic blocking and tackling? Will we finally see an end to the most predictable Wildcat in football history? Will he start playing playing obviously better underclassmen even before they've wasted two years memorizing his Complete Works of the Constipated Turtle playbook?

Until any of those things happen, it seems safe to answer no to all of the above. It would seem to me his primary survival tool right now is recruiting. Somehow, despite this season's performance, Stanford has the 9th ranked incoming class in the country, according to 247 Sports. My guess is that Shaw changes very little next year, with all/most hope on just getting better players. Shaw is good enough to look good if/when he has a ton of talent on the field. (Same could be said of a lot of successful coaches in all fairness.) I'm guessing we see very little of this class on the field next year, and have another poor showing, but that it will be discounted/forgiven as a covid supply-chain glitch sure to improve when these new recruiting classes hit the field. He probably gets another pass next year, and maybe in '23, but if the team isn't bowl-bound by '24, I'd say that's when something will finally give. I'd absolutely love to see him turn it around, but I'm not sure better players, without more, is going to do it....

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - cardcrimson - 12-11-2021

(12-11-2021, 04:58 PM)Row80Critic Wrote: Is Shaw going to trash the Denny's menu? Will he fire the cronies in favor of a qualified staff? Will strength and conditioning become a priority again, not to mention basic blocking and tackling? Will we finally see an end to the most predictable Wildcat in football history? Will he start playing playing obviously better underclassmen even before they've wasted two years memorizing his Complete Works of the Constipated Turtle playbook?

Until any of those things happen, it seems safe to answer no to all of the above. It would seem to me his primary survival tool right now is recruiting. Somehow, despite this season's performance, Stanford has the 9th ranked incoming class in the country, according to 247 Sports. My guess is that Shaw changes very little next year, with all/most hope on just getting better players. Shaw is good enough to look good if/when he has a ton of talent on the field. (Same could be said of a lot of successful coaches in all fairness.) I'm guessing we see very little of this class on the field next year, and have another poor showing, but that it will be discounted/forgiven as a covid supply-chain glitch sure to improve when these new recruiting classes hit the field. He probably gets another pass next year, and maybe in '23, but if the team isn't bowl-bound by '24, I'd say that's when something will finally give. I'd absolutely love to see him turn it around, but I'm not sure better players, without more, is going to do it....

Curious. How many teams (or head coaches) stand pat with their coaching staffs after a 3-9 season?

Great, the 9th best class in the country, and a total lack of history of developing really good talent into NFL calibre talent (except of course, Davis who will be the starting QB for the Texans the rest of the season. God help him).

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - dabigv13 - 12-11-2021

Andrew Luck?

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - TrumpCard - 12-11-2021

I have no further comment on the future of the coaching staff. I just came to comment that the current rank of the 2022 recruiting class is one of the least relevant ways to predict the quality of the 2022 team on the field, and Shaw knows that. The current rank is not even close to what the final rank will be since so many top recruits remain uncommitted, not to mention that Kamari Ramsey may well bolt for UCLA. Even if Shaw were to keep the current commits on board, I predict Stanford would wind up around #17, which is pretty consistent with the 2019 and 2020 classes. But more to the point, the current recruits would be true freshmen next year. It's generally true that college football is a game of juniors and seniors, and that's even more true under Shaw. Plus, Stanford already has relative strength at RB and WR, two of the positions where talented freshmen are most likely to make an impact. So, although I suspect we'll see some freshmen burn their shirts next year, I doubt anyone besides David Bailey and maybe Kamari Ramsey (if he comes) will make much of an impact, and even those guys are unlikely to be difference makers in year one. If Shaw is going to try to improve the team in 2022 without coaching moves (which he might do), then it'll be through improved training/practice/execution/playcalling by the guys who already are a part of the program, not through the 2022 recruiting class.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Row80Critic - 12-11-2021

(12-11-2021, 05:17 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I have no further comment on the future of the coaching staff. I just came to comment that the current rank of the 2022 recruiting class is one of the least relevant ways to predict the quality of the 2022 team on the field, and Shaw knows that. The current rank is not even close to what the final rank will be since so many top recruits remain uncommitted, not to mention that Kamari Ramsey may well bolt for UCLA. Even if Shaw were to keep the current commits on board, I predict Stanford would wind up around #17, which is pretty consistent with the 2019 and 2020 classes. But more to the point, the current recruits would be true freshmen next year. It's generally true that college football is a game of juniors and seniors, and that's even more true under Shaw. Plus, Stanford already has relative strength at RB and WR, two of the positions where talented freshmen are most likely to make an impact. So, although I suspect we'll see some freshmen burn their shirts next year, I doubt anyone besides David Bailey and maybe Kamari Ramsey (if he comes) will make much of an impact, and even those guys are unlikely to be difference makers in year one. If Shaw is going to try to improve the team in 2022 without coaching moves (which he might do), then it'll be through improved training/practice/execution/playcalling by the guys who already are a part of the program, not through the 2022 recruiting class.

Agreed! If my post suggested anything to the contrary, it was a mistake. I was just giving Shaw the benefit of the doubt suggesting he was trying to do "something" to improve the team (eventually, maybe, if the stars align).

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - BostonCard - 12-11-2021

(12-11-2021, 05:14 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Andrew Luck?

Ertz, Dalman, Vaughters, Phillips, Irwin, Thomas, Hooper, Fehoko, Shultz, Fleming, Reid, Okereke, Little, Thomas, Bailey, Adebo, Arcega-Whiteside, Párkinson, Sherman, Toohill, plus a number of others who are on reserve, practice squads, or played a few years in the NFL and left.

Stanford had 22 players on active rosters here, good for 19th in the country. Almost all were coached by Shaw.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-09-06/nfl-players-college-2021-rosters

BC

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Snorlax94 - 12-11-2021

(12-11-2021, 05:26 PM)Row80Critic Wrote:
(12-11-2021, 05:17 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I have no further comment on the future of the coaching staff. I just came to comment that the current rank of the 2022 recruiting class is one of the least relevant ways to predict the quality of the 2022 team on the field, and Shaw knows that.

Agreed! If my post suggested anything to the contrary, it was a mistake. I was just giving Shaw the benefit of the doubt suggesting he was trying to do "something" to improve the team (eventually, maybe, if the stars align).

Where I agree with you -- I'd like to see some coaching moves. The D Line hasn't been able to consistently stop a running game since Randy Hart retired, and the team has had endless injuries and hasn't brutalized opponents since Turley was fired. I give some leeway to the O Line and LB coaches because they're new. Another worry about the coaching staff -- it seems like they've been slowly losing all their in-your-face motivator guys (Hart, Mason, Bloomgren, Turley). I think it's OK if the head coach is a quiet, self-motivated, cerebral guy, but the whole staff can't be built in that image. Maybe all these skills guys don't understand how the Line of Scrimmage works. Even McKee, frustrated with the season, publicly stated the team needs to "practice angry."

Where I disagree with you -- while the rankings may shift and there are duds, they *do* matter. The last two times Stanford had top 13 recruiting classes were 2014 when they recruited Solomon Thomas, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalton Shultz, and 2012, when they recruited Murphy, Peat, Garnett and Martinez. Don't tell me there was no correlation between those rankings and the subsequent results, or that those heralded recruits didn't matter.

Sure, there are some busts, particularly at quarterback (West, Chryst).

And this recruiting class has a lot of big guys, which I love to see. 2 4 star O Linemen, 2 4 star D Linemen, and 9 linemen overall.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - DC 86 - 12-11-2021

(12-11-2021, 10:44 PM)Snorlax94 Wrote:
(12-11-2021, 05:26 PM)Row80Critic Wrote:
(12-11-2021, 05:17 PM)TrumpCard Wrote: I have no further comment on the future of the coaching staff. I just came to comment that the current rank of the 2022 recruiting class is one of the least relevant ways to predict the quality of the 2022 team on the field, and Shaw knows that.

Agreed! If my post suggested anything to the contrary, it was a mistake. I was just giving Shaw the benefit of the doubt suggesting he was trying to do "something" to improve the team (eventually, maybe, if the stars align).

Where I agree with you -- I'd like to see some coaching moves. The D Line hasn't been able to consistently stop a running game since Randy Hart retired, and the team has had endless injuries and hasn't brutalized opponents since Turley was fired. I give some leeway to the O Line and LB coaches because they're new. Another worry about the coaching staff -- it seems like they've been slowly losing all their in-your-face motivator guys (Hart, Mason, Bloomgren, Turley). I think it's OK if the head coach is a quiet, self-motivated, cerebral guy, but the whole staff can't be built in that image. Maybe all these skills guys don't understand how the Line of Scrimmage works. Even McKee, frustrated with the season, publicly stated the team needs to "practice angry."

Where I disagree with you -- while the rankings may shift and there are duds, they *do* matter. The last two times Stanford had top 13 recruiting classes were 2014 when they recruited Solomon Thomas, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalton Shultz, and 2012, when they recruited Murphy, Peat, Garnett and Martinez. Don't tell me there was no correlation between those rankings and the subsequent results, or that those heralded recruits didn't matter.

Sure, there are some busts, particularly at quarterback (West, Chryst).

And this recruiting class has a lot of big guys, which I love to see. 2 4 star O Linemen, 2 4 star D Linemen, and 9 linemen overall.

I thought TrumpCard's point was that this recruiting class won't have immediate impact on the 2022 season. Of course recruiting rankings matter a lot, but the results won't be significant until 2023 at the earliest, and more likely 2024.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Row80Critic - 12-12-2021

(12-11-2021, 11:36 PM)DC 86 Wrote: I thought TrumpCard's point was that this recruiting class won't have immediate impact on the 2022 season. Of course recruiting rankings matter a lot, but the results won't be significant until 2023 at the earliest, and more likely 2024.

Also, the ranking may not hold if players jump and/or other teams pick up more. But rankings aside, it is a strong class and should help down the road. My real point was that it gives Shaw a nice storyline to stick around for another ~$17.8 million dollars.

The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Spiny_Norman - 12-12-2021

(12-12-2021, 10:48 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Row80Critic, when you say "back-to-back losing seasons," are you already projecting a losing season in 2022? Stanford has not had back-to-back losing seasons since 2007 and 2008. I might say, "Pay no attention to the current 7 game losing streak. Pay no attention to the 6 game losing streak in 2019-20. Pay no attention to 2 last place finishes in the P12 North in the prior 3 years. Pay no attention to the declining game attendance (35,684 per game in 2021, down from 37,018 in 2019 and 47,398 in 2017)."

To my observation, Shaw has made changes to the offensive scheme over the last 4-5 years or so. The problem is that none of those changes have worked.

One possible action would be to bring in new thinking and give someone else a chance to re-engineer the offense since Shaw's efforts have not been successful. There is no assurance that they would do better. But as fans we are excited by whatever is shiny and new.

Another approach would be to take advantage of the opponent coaches who have left recently. Stanford (or a trusted 3rd party) could reach out to and interview Brian Kelly, Clay Helton, Jimmy Lake, Mario Cristobal, Nick Rolovich and their defensive coordinators. Ask them about preparing to defend Stanford. Learn if there are things Stanford does that help opponents be successful in stopping them. Incorporate that into a revised schema. Of course this step can be done even with a new OC. And it can yield positive results only if you accept the findings and take action even if they contradict your belief about what you are doing. My biggest concern is that week in and week out (with a few notable exceptions), David Shaw and his staff look to be outcoached by the opposition. That's a hard truth to accept. Maybe Shaw's peers can deliver messages to help him be a better head coach.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Row80Critic - 12-14-2021

(12-12-2021, 11:59 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 10:48 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Row80Critic, when you say "back-to-back losing seasons," are you already projecting a losing season in 2022? Stanford has not had back-to-back losing seasons since 2007 and 2008. I might say, "Pay no attention to the current 7 game losing streak. Pay no attention to the 6 game losing streak in 2019-20. Pay no attention to 2 last place finishes in the P12 North in the prior 3 years. Pay no attention to the declining game attendance (35,684 per game in 2021, down from 37,018 in 2019 and 47,398 in 2017)."

To my observation, Shaw has made changes to the offensive scheme over the last 4-5 years or so. The problem is that none of those changes have worked.

One possible action would be to bring in new thinking and give someone else a chance to re-engineer the offense since Shaw's efforts have not been successful. There is no assurance that they would do better. But as fans we are excited by whatever is shiny and new.

Another approach would be to take advantage of the opponent coaches who have left recently. Stanford (or a trusted 3rd party) could reach out to and interview Brian Kelly, Clay Helton, Jimmy Lake, Mario Cristobal, Nick Rolovich and their defensive coordinators. Ask them about preparing to defend Stanford. Learn if there are things Stanford does that help opponents be successful in stopping them. Incorporate that into a revised schema. Of course this step can be done even with a new OC. And it can yield positive results only if you accept the findings and take action even if they contradict your belief about what you are doing. My biggest concern is that week in and week out (with a few notable exceptions), David Shaw and his staff look to be outcoached by the opposition. That's a hard truth to accept. Maybe Shaw's peers can deliver messages to help him be a better head coach.

I wasn't necessarily predicting losing seasons, but rather setting out the convenient narrative we might start hearing if/when we see more of the same. Other than Colgate to start the season, with its Sagarin rating of 33, it's difficult to see many likely wins on the 2022 schedule -- let alone a winning season. Who knows, maybe something will click, but if we see the same people doing the same things, we will likely see the same results, more or less. Cue the Einstein quote.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - cardcrimson - 12-14-2021

Stay the course? Perhaps he'll have to replace several assistant coaches that get poached by other teams looking to upgrade their staffs. . . .

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Maple Leaf - 12-14-2021

(12-12-2021, 11:59 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 10:48 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Row80Critic, when you say "back-to-back losing seasons," are you already projecting a losing season in 2022? Stanford has not had back-to-back losing seasons since 2007 and 2008. I might say, "Pay no attention to the current 7 game losing streak. Pay no attention to the 6 game losing streak in 2019-20. Pay no attention to 2 last place finishes in the P12 North in the prior 3 years. Pay no attention to the declining game attendance (35,684 per game in 2021, down from 37,018 in 2019 and 47,398 in 2017)."

To my observation, Shaw has made changes to the offensive scheme over the last 4-5 years or so. The problem is that none of those changes have worked.

One possible action would be to bring in new thinking and give someone else a chance to re-engineer the offense since Shaw's efforts have not been successful. There is no assurance that they would do better. But as fans we are excited by whatever is shiny and new.

Another approach would be to take advantage of the opponent coaches who have left recently. Stanford (or a trusted 3rd party) could reach out to and interview Brian Kelly, Clay Helton, Jimmy Lake, Mario Cristobal, Nick Rolovich and their defensive coordinators. Ask them about preparing to defend Stanford. Learn if there are things Stanford does that help opponents be successful in stopping them. Incorporate that into a revised schema. Of course this step can be done even with a new OC. And it can yield positive results only if you accept the findings and take action even if they contradict your belief about what you are doing. My biggest concern is that week in and week out (with a few notable exceptions), David Shaw and his staff look to be outcoached by the opposition. That's a hard truth to accept. Maybe Shaw's peers can deliver messages to help him be a better head coach.

Gee I wonder if Shaw walked over to John Lynch and Andrew Luck when they were standing on the sidelines chatting to ask them of their respective options, prior to the start of the domer game? Those two may know a thing or two about football.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - cardcrimson - 12-14-2021

(12-14-2021, 02:41 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 11:59 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 10:48 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Row80Critic, when you say "back-to-back losing seasons," are you already projecting a losing season in 2022? Stanford has not had back-to-back losing seasons since 2007 and 2008. I might say, "Pay no attention to the current 7 game losing streak. Pay no attention to the 6 game losing streak in 2019-20. Pay no attention to 2 last place finishes in the P12 North in the prior 3 years. Pay no attention to the declining game attendance (35,684 per game in 2021, down from 37,018 in 2019 and 47,398 in 2017)."

To my observation, Shaw has made changes to the offensive scheme over the last 4-5 years or so. The problem is that none of those changes have worked.

One possible action would be to bring in new thinking and give someone else a chance to re-engineer the offense since Shaw's efforts have not been successful. There is no assurance that they would do better. But as fans we are excited by whatever is shiny and new.

Another approach would be to take advantage of the opponent coaches who have left recently. Stanford (or a trusted 3rd party) could reach out to and interview Brian Kelly, Clay Helton, Jimmy Lake, Mario Cristobal, Nick Rolovich and their defensive coordinators. Ask them about preparing to defend Stanford. Learn if there are things Stanford does that help opponents be successful in stopping them. Incorporate that into a revised schema. Of course this step can be done even with a new OC. And it can yield positive results only if you accept the findings and take action even if they contradict your belief about what you are doing. My biggest concern is that week in and week out (with a few notable exceptions), David Shaw and his staff look to be outcoached by the opposition. That's a hard truth to accept. Maybe Shaw's peers can deliver messages to help him be a better head coach.

Gee I wonder if Shaw walked over to John Lynch and Andrew Luck when they were standing on the sidelines chatting to ask them of their respective options, prior to the start of the domer game? Those two may know a thing or two about football.

I think you mean opinions, but as an option, how about Andrew Luck as the Andrew Luck Director of Offense, with perhaps Kevin Hogan as the Kevin Hogan Quarterbacks Coach?

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Maple Leaf - 12-14-2021

(12-14-2021, 03:06 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:
(12-14-2021, 02:41 PM)Maple Leaf Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 11:59 AM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:
(12-12-2021, 10:48 AM)Row80Critic Wrote: The storyline: Covid decimated the program, so we are rebuilding from the ground up. We have top 10 recruiting classes now, so by 2025 the team will be in the top 10. No need for coaching changes, or scheme changes, or a new philosophy. I coached in the NFL and am the winningest coach in Stanford history. Stay the course. Pay no attention to back-to-back-to-back losing seasons. We'll be good soon. Wait and see.

I sincerely hope it's true, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Row80Critic, when you say "back-to-back losing seasons," are you already projecting a losing season in 2022? Stanford has not had back-to-back losing seasons since 2007 and 2008. I might say, "Pay no attention to the current 7 game losing streak. Pay no attention to the 6 game losing streak in 2019-20. Pay no attention to 2 last place finishes in the P12 North in the prior 3 years. Pay no attention to the declining game attendance (35,684 per game in 2021, down from 37,018 in 2019 and 47,398 in 2017)."

To my observation, Shaw has made changes to the offensive scheme over the last 4-5 years or so. The problem is that none of those changes have worked.

One possible action would be to bring in new thinking and give someone else a chance to re-engineer the offense since Shaw's efforts have not been successful. There is no assurance that they would do better. But as fans we are excited by whatever is shiny and new.

Another approach would be to take advantage of the opponent coaches who have left recently. Stanford (or a trusted 3rd party) could reach out to and interview Brian Kelly, Clay Helton, Jimmy Lake, Mario Cristobal, Nick Rolovich and their defensive coordinators. Ask them about preparing to defend Stanford. Learn if there are things Stanford does that help opponents be successful in stopping them. Incorporate that into a revised schema. Of course this step can be done even with a new OC. And it can yield positive results only if you accept the findings and take action even if they contradict your belief about what you are doing. My biggest concern is that week in and week out (with a few notable exceptions), David Shaw and his staff look to be outcoached by the opposition. That's a hard truth to accept. Maybe Shaw's peers can deliver messages to help him be a better head coach.

Gee I wonder if Shaw walked over to John Lynch and Andrew Luck when they were standing on the sidelines chatting to ask them of their respective options, prior to the start of the domer game? Those two may know a thing or two about football.

I think you mean opinions, but as an option, how about Andrew Luck as the Andrew Luck Director of Offense, with perhaps Kevin Hogan as the Kevin Hogan Quarterbacks Coach?

Thank you for clarifying/correcting my goof..........OPINIONS is correct.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - TrumpCard - 12-14-2021

If (big if) Shaw is planning on making changes, when would the changes be announced? Not until after bowl season (and incidentally the early signing period)?

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - Hurlburt88 - 12-14-2021

I would think we would start to hear things after this early National Signing DAy . . . i.e., tomorrow, and then trickling for 6 weeks. I am certainly impatient for any positive change!

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - 82lsju - 12-14-2021

I assume (always dangerous) that most (all?) of the assistant coaches are on a contract that probably ends around this time of year, not sure how many are on either one year contracts or multi year contracts, and if the latter how many expire this year. These coaches could either just be let go by not renewing their contract or fired if their contract was not expiring. I'd think coaches in the first group (plus any multiyear contracts that expire this year) would by now have a good idea if they either were or were not being retained for next year. Anyone have any insights into how the assistant coaching contracts are usually set up?

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - yvonne - 12-14-2021

Assistant coaches typically have shorter contracts than coordinators and head coaches. They last 1-2 years. There is — or at least used to be — a coaches' convention after the bowls were over. Assistant coaches would joke that you could tell who was looking for a job because those guys were wearing sports coats while everyone else was casual. I wouldn't expect to learn much before then.

RE: Shaw's survival strategy? - BostonCard - 12-15-2021

https://convention.afca.com/

I think it’s the AFCA, which will be Jan 9-11.

BC