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Strategy on 4th Down - Printable Version

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Strategy on 4th Down - FarmBoy - 11-08-2011

Lying awake last night, worrying about Saturday, I had a thought on how Shaw should approach 4th down on Saturday. Admittedly, I haven't watched a lot of Oregon this season, but what I've seen of them the past few years, it seems to me that Oregon's offense either goes three and out, or scores a TD. I don't have the stats to support it, by my impression is they rarely have drives where they pick up a couple of first downs and are then forced to kick. With that in mind, field position seems much less important for Oregon than most teams. Therefore, I contend that Stanford should go for it on every 4th down between the 25's. If Stanford converts, it keeps the drive alive and increases the chance of a TD. If it fails to convert, the Ducks get the ball and either score or don't, the same outcome as if we'd kicked.

Am I nuts?

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - Roberton3 - 11-08-2011

Going for it on every 4th down between the 25s is too much. (Would you really want to go for it on 4th and 25 from our own 26?)  But you're not nuts.  Going for it on 4th down much more often than usual would be a good strategy.  In addition to the arguments you made, it also helps keep our defense rested.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - estephan500 - 11-08-2011

Yep, but run with it!

Would love a bit of data on that.  But the general principle might come into play a few times and shaw might play the farmboy card on 4th.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - OutsiderFan - 11-08-2011

I agree completely.  Field position doesn't mean very much in this game. 

Another reason it doesn't matter is because how good Stanford is in the red zone on offense and defense.  Teams have to score from outside the red zone to score touchdowns on Stanford for the most part, and Oregon excels at long TDs.  Get them in the Red Zone as soon as possible, if they are going to get there.  Play safeties deep until the red zone.  Once in the red zone, then tighten things up. 

Stanford has to win the game by going on 7 and 8 minute drives that end in touchdowns.  Given how fast Oregon can move the ball down the field, and how important Touchdowns are in this game, Stanford should go for it on 4th down:

* 10 yards or less from the 50 to Oregon 35
* 2 yards or less every time inside the Oregon 30
* 1 yard or less from own 30 to 50

For those that think going for it on 4th down from your own territory is crazy, one of the things that saved Oregon last year was going for it on 4th and 1 from their own 25 and making it.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - Hurlburt88 - 11-08-2011

I know an actuary who did a very thorough statistical analysis that showed that going for it on 4th down should be done much more often.  The coaches interviewed regarding this study said that they agreed with the exception of the emotional swing.  Given this, I am fully supportive for going for it on 4th in a bid to keep it in our hands. 

WWTWD? - jacketree - 11-08-2011

What would Tom Williams do?

I don't know.  Just playing regular football will probably work. I'd leave the crazy 4th down strategies to Oregon, because Stanford basically scores on just about every possession regardless of where it starts. Doesn't Stanford have the second lowest number of punts in the country?  I'm not seeing Stanford in a bunch of 4th down situations. 

Agree that teams should go for it more often on 4th down.  Maybe modify the strategy to any 4th down between the 50 and the 25.  Which field goal kicker do we expect to play on Saturday?

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - FarmBoy - 11-08-2011

We convert ONLY 53% of our 3rd downs, so clearly, we are getting a fair number of 4th downs.

I meant to qualify that we should go on any 4th down of less than 10 yards. Perhaps we can push that to the Stanford 30, so Oregon would start with the ball outside FG range if the ball is handed over on downs. Our 23 punts is least in the Pac12 (Oregon has punted 33.)

I can't find any stats on distribution on length of drives, so it's hard for me to back up with the limited data on cfbstats.com. Interestingly, Stanford has more plays of 10+ yards from scrimmage than Oregon (159 vs. 150). However, they have twice as many place of 40+ yards (19 for them vs. 10 for us).

Also, we're an incredible 100% on 4th down conversion on 10 attempts. (What's the record for the season?) Granted, most of those were 4th and 1 or 2, and we haven't had any last minute desperation drives where we were forced to go on 4th and 10, but that's phenomenal. By contrast, Oregon is 7 of 15.

I just think that the worst thing you can do, strategically, against Oregon is give them the ball. Anything you can do to delay that, or avoid it altogether, should be explored.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - fullmetal - 11-08-2011

We may only convert 53% of our third downs if the other 47% of those third downs are third-and-longs where we go for the first down (no matter the yardage required for a first down) and fail.  Maybe if we settled for a 4-yd rush on 3rd and 5 instead of an incomplete 6-yd pass, we would be in a position to win a 4th and 1 situation.  It's hard to tell.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - Roberton3 - 11-08-2011

(11-08-2011, 06:01 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Stanford should go for it on 4th down:
* 10 yards or less from the 50 to Oregon 35
* 2 yards or less every time inside the Oregon 30
* 1 yard or less from own 30 to 50

That strikes me as slightly too aggressive from the 50 to the Oregon 35, and far too conservative elsewhere.  I'd go for it on 4th and 5 or less almost anywhere on the field, and push that out to 7 or 8 between the 50 and the 35.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - bulldogbigred - 11-08-2011

I would like to see Andrew run some more naked boot plays. It worked beautifully against Washington last year.

Re: Strategy on 4th Down - washingtonismoney - 11-08-2011

(11-08-2011, 10:15 PM)stanfordindians link Wrote:I would like to see Andrew run some more naked boot plays. It worked beautifully against Washington last year.

It was a read-option, not a naked boot.