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Probably delusional, but hear me out - Printable Version

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Probably delusional, but hear me out - MarinCard - 07-01-2022

I allow these are all probably delusional coping thoughts, but in this new world nothing seems too out-there anymore. Come with me down a golden path:

- The B1G are only going to add programs that are net revenue-accretive, or at least minimally dilutive.
- Notre Dame is the only such school that isn't already affiliated with the B1G or SEC.
- It's becoming increasingly costly for ND to remain unaligned given the spread between their NBC deal, ACC's media deal, and the B1G/SEC industrial complex.
- All the same, ND holds leverage because they're coveted by every viable conference.
- In all likelihood, the B1G would want to pair ND with another school for even numbers.
- All of ND's current rivalries (putting aside historic but largely non-competitive rivalries like the service academies) will sit within the B1G come 2024... except one.
- Pairing Stanford and ND as additions would add two world-class universities with deep pockets, broad and winning athletic programs, and the ability to 
- Stanford would be dilutive on its own or with Cal, but with ND you'd have to think it'd be a wash. 
- Independent of what may happen with UO and UW, this would give the SoCal schools at least one other travel partner.

All of this balances on ND decisionmaking. But there's also an existential question: what do Muir and Tessier-Lavigne want Stanford athletics to be? Do they want it to be a superconference participant and go all-in, or do they want to de-emphasize as the Ivies did half a century-plus ago and be a quaint regional player? I only see outcomes in the extreme here, no middle ground.

RE: Probably delusional, but hear me out - Mick - 07-03-2022

(07-01-2022, 10:04 AM)MarinCard Wrote:  I allow these are all probably delusional coping thoughts, but in this new world nothing seems too out-there anymore. Come with me down a golden path:

- The B1G are only going to add programs that are net revenue-accretive, or at least minimally dilutive.
- Notre Dame is the only such school that isn't already affiliated with the B1G or SEC.
- It's becoming increasingly costly for ND to remain unaligned given the spread between their NBC deal, ACC's media deal, and the B1G/SEC industrial complex.
- All the same, ND holds leverage because they're coveted by every viable conference.
- In all likelihood, the B1G would want to pair ND with another school for even numbers.
- All of ND's current rivalries (putting aside historic but largely non-competitive rivalries like the service academies) will sit within the B1G come 2024... except one.
- Pairing Stanford and ND as additions would add two world-class universities with deep pockets, broad and winning athletic programs, and the ability to 
- Stanford would be dilutive on its own or with Cal, but with ND you'd have to think it'd be a wash. 
- Independent of what may happen with UO and UW, this would give the SoCal schools at least one other travel partner.

All of this balances on ND decisionmaking. But there's also an existential question: what do Muir and Tessier-Lavigne want Stanford athletics to be? Do they want it to be a superconference participant and go all-in, or do they want to de-emphasize as the Ivies did half a century-plus ago and be a quaint regional player? I only see outcomes in the extreme here, no middle ground.

I think you're right here.  If Stanford and ND could join together, that would make ND's Big 10 participation more palatable.

RE: Probably delusional, but hear me out - TrumpCard - 07-03-2022

I’m not sure this is particularly likely, but if it happens and kal gets left behind, the investment of public money into that new stadium will look even worse. Stanford prof Roger Noll has published a ton on the use of public money for stadiums. I think most of his work relates to pro teams, but I wonder what he’d have to say about colleges. I don’t think his opinions would be kind to kal.

RE: Probably delusional, but hear me out - Phogge - 07-03-2022

I always thought that the Hayward Fault would collapse about one hour into a Big Game during an even year. Perhaps Cal getting out of big time football would save thousands of lives of Stanford Peninsula based fans.

RE: Probably delusional, but hear me out - dwc13 - 07-03-2022

Ohio State & Nebraska alum stopping by to check out perspectives on various Pac 12 forums. BTW, this is a very nice, well laid out forum with a clever name. Well done.  

If Notre Dame agrees to join the B1G Ten, I think Stanford will also be approved (provided it is interested in becoming a member). I'm of the opinion the B1G Ten is attempting a run around by securing membership of long-time rivals of Notre Dame. USC and Stanford fit the bill in that regard; Navy is a non-starter but the Irish could continue to schedule the Middies as a non-conference game. Clearly AAU membership, stellar academics and Olympic sports are not an issue in Palo Alto. With USC joining in 2024, the B1G Ten will have 4 of the traditional blue blood football programs (Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska & USC), which is more than the SEC will have (3) once Texas and Oklahoma join Alabama. Notre Dame would be the 5th blue blood if it joined the B1G Ten. 

I think the B1G Ten has talked to Stanford and Cal, perhaps as a package deal. Clearly it is more interested in adding Notre Dame and Stanford rather than all 3 programs joining as a package. 18 (or 20, 24) teams is more manageable than 19. Now that USC & UCLA are onboard, if it was up to me I would approve Stanford and Cal for membership. I wouldn't be fixated on the win/loss, attendance or viewership numbers associated with their respective football programs. A big part of what Stanford & Cal would bring lies elsewhere. Lock up the Bay Area and keep another conference from gaining (or maintaining) a foothold. Travel pairing for Olympic sports would be simplified (relatively speaking) given the proximity of Stanford & UCB. I suspect USC & UCLA would appreciate much shorter travel for a few conference road games, too. In the end, the heavy lifting during media rights negotiations is going to be carried by the football blue bloods, not programs like Stanford, Cal, Rutgers or Minnesota.  

Time will tell how things ultimately unfold. It's unfortunate college athletics have become an arms race (so to speak), but this has been in the works for a while. The pandemic (budgets) and NIL accelerated matters. Stay optimistic and hope for the best. I'm pulling for Stanford to join the B1G Ten.

RE: Probably delusional, but hear me out - riffelbooks - 07-03-2022

(07-01-2022, 10:04 AM)MarinCard Wrote:  I allow these are all probably delusional coping thoughts, but in this new world nothing seems too out-there anymore. Come with me down a golden path:

- The B1G are only going to add programs that are net revenue-accretive, or at least minimally dilutive.
- Notre Dame is the only such school that isn't already affiliated with the B1G or SEC.
- It's becoming increasingly costly for ND to remain unaligned given the spread between their NBC deal, ACC's media deal, and the B1G/SEC industrial complex.
- All the same, ND holds leverage because they're coveted by every viable conference.
- In all likelihood, the B1G would want to pair ND with another school for even numbers.
- All of ND's current rivalries (putting aside historic but largely non-competitive rivalries like the service academies) will sit within the B1G come 2024... except one.
- Pairing Stanford and ND as additions would add two world-class universities with deep pockets, broad and winning athletic programs, and the ability to 
- Stanford would be dilutive on its own or with Cal, but with ND you'd have to think it'd be a wash. 
- Independent of what may happen with UO and UW, this would give the SoCal schools at least one other travel partner.

All of this balances on ND decisionmaking. But there's also an existential question: what do Muir and Tessier-Lavigne want Stanford athletics to be? Do they want it to be a superconference participant and go all-in, or do they want to de-emphasize as the Ivies did half a century-plus ago and be a quaint regional player? I only see outcomes in the extreme here, no middle ground.

Been ages since I posted here, but with all that's going on, thought I'd chime in.

Stanford and Notre Dame as a package deal makes too much sense for the B1G. I can see Kal as part of the package, with a fourth school to come along, like Kansas or Missouri. I'm not even sure Stanford would be dilutive. The idea is to get the Bay Area TV market to sell to networks and advertisers. Who cares if anyone watches. This is a conference that took Maryland and Rutgers to grab those markets, and no one watches them. UCLA is pretty for down the pecking order of LA sports teams, and the B1G took them.

Tuesday could be a big day.