Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State

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Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - msqueri - 10-23-2022

1. The plight of being a Stanford fan with a brain these days is seeing heart and head rent by a deeply unfortunate tug of war. We all love Stanford football and experiencing the first consecutive wins in exactly 400 days is a joyous occasion. I'm very happy for the players. Yet these two lucky, ugly wins against mediocre or worse teams and the very winnable games against Washington State, BYU, and Cal produce a very high likelihood there will be a clear narrative of improvement for the powers-that-be to hang complacency on if they want to, which they probably will. There's something poignant, albeit depressing, about this. Shaw has faced the hardest schedule in America thus far this season and now gets to rack up some wins against teams who beating doesn't suggest anything impressive, especially not the way Shaw beats them. Meanwhile, the fans with brains who know there's no truly competitive future with Shaw at the helm get put on the rack for questioning the Great Man.

2. This win was an extremely ugly win between bad teams. Somebody had to win but both teams played like the dregs of Power Five football they are. Both teams were penalized far above the national average (Stanford in the bottom 33rd percentile for penalty yards and Arizona State in the bottom 6th percentile). A game with two defenses that rank in the bottom 13th percentile of points per drive defenses nationally somehow managed to have nine punts and less than 30 total points (the median scoring offense, our non-world beating former offensive coordinator's Rice team, scores 30 a game alone). Each team had a fumble and an interception. Neither team grades in PFF's top 80 grades for pass rush and yet both teams gave up four sacks. U-G-L-Y. But I'm a Stanford fan and would rather my team lose ugly and win ugly. We should make no mistake, though, in thinking this is a sign of progress for Stanford football. We eeked out an ugly victory at home against another bad team. Hence the pull between heart and head.

3. I will have none of it if Shaw tries to talk this up as a team win. It most definitely was not. We got outgained by over a yard per play and had almost identical points per drive against a bad team at home. We won for two reasons and two reasons only: Josh Karty and our edge defenders. I said last week we've become a kicker team. This is the second week in a row in which Karty led the C-House chant. That is deeply awesome for him but embarrassing for everybody else. He accounted for every single one of our points. That's never how you draw it up. But I can't say we won only because of him as the defense executed a bend but don't break game and saved the offense's bacon for the second week in a row. Both watching last night and dissecting play-by-play and PFF grades this morning it is crystal clear that Cooper, Herron and Keneley won this game along with Karty.

4. To be precise, we bent but didn't break for the last 40 minutes of the game. We were breaking badly in the first 20 minutes but then buckled down. I wouldn't be surprised if it tracked essentially exactly with the play when Ernest Cooper IV made his collegiate debut. What a revelation. You can just see the explosiveness. He and Bailey are a different breed than the rest of our players. I can't believe I'm saying this but there isn't a team in America that has better true freshmen edge players, and we haven't even seen Tafiti yet. Cooper only played 18 snaps and in that time had a stop on a reception for two yards with a hard stick (talk about making your presence known immediately in your college career), a tackle for loss on 2nd and 4, a sack on 1st and 10, and a tackle for loss on 1st and 10. He was the reason Arizona State had to punt twice, including a key fourth quarter drive, and made them work for yardage on a drive that ended in a missed field goal. What a debut. But it wasn't just him, the edge defenders were the best I've seen a Stanford front seven position group in I don't know how long. It may even be the best 6+ years. Herron had a key sack (now #47 in America and #5 in the Pac-12 in sacks per game) and two key QB hurries. Keneley's big plays were the reason for the punt to start the fourth quarter. Even DiCosmo had 3-4 really good plays. I said during the week that Arizona State has an atrocious offensive line and it was time for Herron to hunt, and while the pitiful opponent had a lot to do with our pass rush, guys had to show up and for there to be pass rush aside from Herron is encouraging.

5. Big picture, by far the thing to be excited about in Stanford football is watching our front seven grow the rest of this season and the next couple of years. It's not just the edge guys but also Moi being great for a true freshman (ups and downs in this game but to bat a pass leading to an interception and to get two half tackles for loss is big-time for a true freshman). We may be seeing evidence for growth not just in the edge pass rush but in run defense, which has been on an upward trajectory over the last three weeks to newfound mediocrity. We shouldn't overstate this as yesterday's performance, even aided by four sacks, was more yards per carry than Oklahoma State, Utah, and USC gave up against Arizona State (but better than Northern Arizona, Eastern Michigan, and Washington), but along with pass rush it's a sign of some life. The front seven is eventually going to be really good if coaching doesn't hold it back.

6. I usually cover special teams later but it would be a crime to bury Karty! Tying an all-time Stanford single game record is of course a big deal. He's automatic. What a weapon, as Shaw says. Karty is now one of only three kickers in America with 12+ attempts and no misses. PFF hasn't updated the kicking grades yet but even before the game they had Karty the #6 kicker. In addition to the front seven maybe the other thing to watch for Stanford the rest of the season is a Groza Award campaign for Karty. I don't know if I'd vote for Karty ahead of NC State's Christopher Dunn but when you're talking about whether your guy is first, second, or third best in America that's where you want to be. Elsewhere on special teams, Sanborn had net punts of 44 (to the 15), 36 (to the 8), and 49 (to the 32). Some meat left on the bone but a nice game. Barrow had a nice return but is not yet a weapon (fifth of six qualifying Pac-12 returners). I do think he's better at it than Farrell and am happy about the switch. Kyu Kelly almost caused disaster with the muffed punt he caused, the type of play that could have cost the game (honestly one of several plays overall in which that could describe Kelly's day, although he also had multiple big-time plays).

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - msqueri - 10-23-2022

7. I talked earlier about what won the game but in a one point home win against a bad team what was bad enough to lose the game is just as salient. The defense, because of the edge defenders, was good enough to keep the Sun Devils to almost a point per drive below their average (despite giving up worse than average yards per play, a sign of that bend but don't break) but got victimized by big plays disturbingly often. We gave up four 30+ yard plays and were inches from giving up another to lose the game. In the previous six games Arizona State only had gotten seven 30+ plays, so we did a terrible job stopping chunk plays against a team practically incapable of them. Ultimately I think we got saved as much by facing a bad team that couldn't capitalize on facing one of the softest defenses on its schedule.

8. But the bigger thing that almost lost the game was of course our putrid offense. We were the first FBS offense to get less than five yarss a play against Arizona State and we scored a whopping 2.32 points fewer per drive (even with Karty as a weapon!!!!!) than the Sun Devils give up on average. In other words, Shawfense made the #128 points per drive defense look like the #8 points per drive defense in the nation (again, even with the benefit of Karty). Not an exaggeration. That's how bad scoring 15 points on Arizona State is. We are the first FBS school to score less than 30 points on them and we only scored half that!

9. Such awful offense took a village of crap. It was an odd game plan to be so imbalanced in favor of the pass from the start against a very bad run defense. Arizona State is #89 in yards per carry allowed and Stanford has run blocked better than pass blocked this season, yet we never even tried to establish the run. I suspect two factors. First, this was a reaction to Filkins' high work rate last week and we were trying to preserve him (making it ironic that this is the game we lose him to injury, making self-fulfilling that the offense is imbalanced going forward). Second, this may be a tell we're essentially abandoning the conceit that we have balance in our offense. This is now the fourth time in six FBS games we haven't even broken 100 yards rushing. In fact, we're the first FBS team to fail to break four yards a carry against Arizona State's pitiful run defense and we barely brokee three yards a carry. Filkins has his defenders and Smith his critics, but it's notable that our only games with either 150+ rushing yards or 4+ yards per carry were the two Smith played. Even before Filkins got injured it's been clear we can't run. Without him, it's hopeless and we become an air raid team.

10. But here's where the village of crap came in. Coming into the season some wanted Stanford to just air it out this year given our personnel strengths. But are they strengths? The receivers dropped a million passes and honestly Higgins, Tremayne, and Yurosek have been mediocre all year. [Yurosek, Higgins, and Humphreys did have nice days yesterday. This week's moving the chains (first downs) leader board: Humphreys (6), Yurosek (5), Higgins (5), Tremayne (4), Filkins (4)] The pass proection/McKee's pocket presence was a calamity: Arizona State game into the game with four sacks on the season in six games, easily the worst in the nation, and we let them double their season total in one afternoon. And McKee struggled in this game, which was a great example of what a misleading stat yards can be. This was clearly our worst passing game of the season - the worst passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdowns, and second worst yards per attempt, and we got stifled by a bad team: it was the worst any FBS passing team has done against them (we did worse than Eastern Michigan!). I see fans have more and more started to have a conversation about McKee and, sadly, I think that's fair. On the season he is #76 in Total QBR (#7 in the Pac-12) and #73 in traditional passer rating (#8). On the four major components of Total QBR (pass, run, sacks, penalties), avoiding penalties is the only thing he's top 50 in and he is woeful in two of the four, #118 of 124 in running and #94 in sacks. None of this is to say McKee won't be drafted. I still suspect he'll declare for the draft and be a Jacob Eason-type prospect. But he is potentially playing himself into another year and, in any case, joins everything else but Drake Nugent as one of the problems in our offense.

11. Game balls: Humphreys, Cooper, Karty, Anderson

12. Based on all evidence to date this season I expect UCLA to expose us again for the team it's clear we are. The Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Arizona State games have been moderate upticks in our quality of play but the main reason we are now winning games rather than losing uncompetitively is that we're playing more mediocre teams. Beating UCLA would take something we haven't shown ourselves capable of in quite a while, or UCLA laying an egg (which could happen, though their own uncompetitive loss yesterday and Rose Bowl hopes makes a focused Bruin team likely). Nonetheless, the coaches and players have resiliently bounced back such that they deserve to shoot for a redeemeed season. In my opinion, it will take a bowl and the Oregon State loss continues to make than an uphill climb, but we have a chance. As such, I think the remaining weeks of the season will continue to be that battle between heart and head for Stanford fans.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - lex24 - 10-23-2022

Thanks.

I’ll say this: I think the odds of Shaw being fired are slim and none. Whether they go 3-9 or 6-6. (Or, for that matter, even had they gone 1-11.) So, I’ll gladly take a win. As such, the heart and head thing isn’t a thing for me. As bad as they are, they are a brain-fart away from being 4-3. If nothing else, give some credit to the kids for not caving. And I do think the defense is improving.

Offensively, I’ve made my disdain for the Slow-Mesh clear. I’d rather see them play straight up. Some I, some shotgun. Some split back. More traditional play-action (one of their biggest gains was on a play action out of the I). But that’s not gonna happen.

On McKee - I thought he had a rough game. Said it during the game. But his receivers sure didn’t help him. The first three drives should have ended in touchdowns. Dropped passes, including a TD on drive one and easy third and fourth down catches that weren’t on drive 3. If memory serves, McKee missed on two throws that could have either been TD’s or put Stanford inside the 10 on drive 2. (Admittedly inside the 10 doesnt guarantee a TD, but it would have been nice to have the shot)

I also think he’s in an offense that does not play to his strength- which to me is a big time downfield arm. Course you need time to run those routes. And some speed would help.

O-line pass protected pretty well for the most part. Part of that, I’m sure is ASU’s lousy pass rush. But you line up against who you line up against, and all-in-all I thought the protection was more than adequate. (Although they had a massive fail on the third down on their last possession when no one picked up the corner blitz. Good defensive call. But still…)

As for the running game. It’s been lousy for a few years now. To me that is the number 1 culprit for THE COLLAPSE. At this point, add the fact that they probably will play with a third string back the rest of year and it’s hard to see any improvement. (Perhaps the line getting healthier will help a little.) So, get used to 40 to 50 passes.

Finally, they sorely lack speed and big play capability. Making execution (that word again) crucial. It’s been poor. And without big plays, it becomes even more important to avoid negative plays. Which they haven’t done. The result is not pretty - thank goodness for Karty.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - JohnR34231 - 10-23-2022

(10-23-2022, 12:01 PM)lex24 Wrote: Thanks.

I’ll say this: I think the odds of Shaw being fired are slim and none. Whether they go 3-9 or 6-6. (Or, for that matter, even had they gone 1-11.) So, I’ll gladly take a win. As such, the heart and head thing isn’t a thing for me. As bad as they are, they are a brain-fart away from being 4-3. If nothing else, give some credit to the kids for not caving. And I do think the defense is improving.

Offensively, I’ve made my disdain for the Slow-Mesh clear. I’d rather see them play straight up. Some I, some shotgun. Some split back. More traditional play-action (one of their biggest gains was on a play action out of the I). But that’s not gonna happen.

On McKee - I thought he had a rough game. Said it during the game. But his receivers sure didn’t help him. The first three drives should have ended in touchdowns. Dropped passes, including a TD on drive one and easy third and fourth down catches that weren’t on drive 3. If memory serves, McKee missed on two throws that could have either been TD’s or put Stanford inside the 10 on drive 2. (Admittedly inside the 10 doesnt guarantee a TD, but it would have been nice to have the shot)

I also think he’s in an offense that does not play to his strength- which to me is a big time downfield arm. Course you need time to run those routes. And some speed would help.

O-line pass protected pretty well for the most part. Part of that, I’m sure is ASU’s lousy pass rush. But you line up against who you line up against, and all-in-all I thought the protection was more than adequate. (Although they had a of immense proportions fail on the third down on their last possession when no one picked up the corner blitz. Good defensive call. But still…)

As for the running game. It’s been lousy for a few years now. To me that is the number 1 culprit for THE COLLAPSE. At this point, add the fact that they probably will play with a third string back the rest of year and it’s hard to see any improvement. (Perhaps the lin3 getting healthier will help a little.) So, get used to 40 to 50 passes.

Finally, they sorely lack speed and big play capability. Making execution (that word again) crucial. It’s been poor. And without big plays, it becomes even more important to avoid negative plays. Which they haven’t done. The result is not pretty - thank goodness for Karty.

Agree with the notion that Shaw isn't going to be fired any time soon. So I can't relate to the hope we lose so they get rid of Shaw crowd. I'm always going to hope we win, no matter how ugly.
My impression before the season started was that we had some good young defensive players and as they got some experience the defense would improve. That seems to be happening, although we'll see how they do against the Bruins.
The offense has been a big disappointment. With McKee and a crew of capable receivers I thought we would be doing much, much better.
Anyway, UCLA and Utah are probably wet dreams, but I think we stand a decent chance against the other three. So 6-6 is still a possibility

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - Austroturf - 10-23-2022

I also don't struggle with the heart and head thing. I always want Stanford to win, even when the game is utterly painful to watch. And since nothing seems to affect the administration's view of Teflon Shaw, well, why not enjoy a few ugly wins along the way?

All that said, I can only agree with many of Matt's points: 1) absolutely Shawful offense, with now 115 minutes of play without a TD! The ability to finish a drive seems to have completely eluded McKee and Co. To see them move the ball down the field and stall each time is just wretched. When Shaw put Daniels in on such an obvious Wildcat run, I knew we would be limited to FG #2. I frankly don't know why he calls that play...ever. 2) So, yes, thank the stars for a reliable kicker like Karty. If ASU had had a Karty on its roster, we would have lost, because their man came up short in the waning minutes of H1. Those three points would have made the difference. And 3) the defense came through with a number of standout performances. It didn't look good in the early phase of the game, but they regrouped and clamped down in the final 44 minutes of play. Yes, it almost went pear-shaped in the end, with a distinct Beaver-vibe in the stadium; but Badger's right foot had chalk all over it, and victory was barely preserved from the jaws of defeat.

Stanford stadium was a relatively barren cavern with two decidedly mediocre teams trading blows on a beautiful October afternoon. Yes, one of them had to win, and it was the good guys this time. Always happy for a W. Not happy with where the program is. I expect UCLA to carve us up next week. But the Bruins didn't exactly light Autzen stadium up on Saturday, so in this very weird year of football, maybe we can surprise to the upside again. I will be rooting for Stanford, even though I would love to see the program under new leadership. Guess that's my conflict.

And, as usual, thanks for the insights, Matt.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - Beeg_Dawg - 10-23-2022

Thanks Matt. Always appreciate your reading your viewpoints.

I have trouble getting excited about this win. We won, but not because we did anything all that well. 3" was all that separated us from a loss like the one to Oregon State.

I'm happy we won, but I am not celebrating with my happy dance.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - BostonCard - 10-23-2022

At 27.4 ppg, we have the seventh best (or fifth worst) scoring defense in the PAC-12, but considering we’ve played the best offense (Oregon), and three of the top four (Washington and USC are tied for third), and that ASU is the only below the median offense we’ve faced, that’s not too bad.

On the other hand, at 25.1 ppg, we have the eighth best scoring offense in the pac-12, but of our conference opponents,only two (USC and OSU) have been better than the median, while Oregon, ASU, and Washington rank 8th through 10th respectively.

Bottom line is that the defense is about as good as we could have reasonably hoped for going into the season and the offense is as bad as we could have feared.

BC

I don’t know that I would qualify yesterdays game as “bend but don’t break”. We had four sacks and 10 TFL’s, but gave up a bunch of chunk plays (four 30 yard plays). ASU completed 14/26 passes, which is just over 50%, but they got 227 yards out of the completions (16.2 yards per catch). To me, bend but don’t break avoids those big plays but let’s the opponent methodically advance down the field. What we saw yesterday was the opposite. ASU either struck it big on offense or struck out. To wit, 355 yards yielded only 19 first downs (one first down for every 19 yards), while Stanford got 28 first downs on 398 yards (14.2 yards per first down). That’s how ASU easily got more yards per play, while Stanford got more total yards.

When I think of “bend but don’t break” defense, I envision what ASU did to Stanford. ASU had two 75 yard touchdown drives, which it got in 6 and 7 plays. Stanford had seven(!) drives with more than 7 plays; we only got 15 points out of them.

BC

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - JeffInCorvallis - 10-23-2022

Let's hand the ball off to Ashton Daniels. If he's the runner we think he is he can get 2-3 ypc.

I don't know why we insist on running that same Wildcat play we've been running for the last 10 years. I can't remember a single time we've thrown a pass out of that formation. Now Smith is out for the year and I would be surprised to see Filkins return. Let's line up Robinson and Daniels in the backfield and hand the ball off to them. Can't be any worse for the running game then we saw yesterday.

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - old spanish trail - 10-23-2022

(10-23-2022, 01:40 PM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Let's hand the ball off to Ashton Daniels. If he's the runner we think he is he can get 2-3 ypc.

I don't know why we insist on running that same Wildcat play we've been running for the last 10 years. I can't remember a single time we've thrown a pass out of that formation. Now Smith is out for the year and I would be surprised to see Filkins return. Let's line up Robinson and Daniels in the backfield and hand the ball off to them. Can't be any worse for the running game then we saw yesterday.

Interesting thought

RE: Sunday morning thoughts - Arizona State - Austroturf - 10-23-2022

(10-23-2022, 01:49 PM)old spanish trail Wrote:
(10-23-2022, 01:40 PM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Let's hand the ball off to Ashton Daniels. If he's the runner we think he is he can get 2-3 ypc.

I don't know why we insist on running that same Wildcat play we've been running for the last 10 years. I can't remember a single time we've thrown a pass out of that formation. Now Smith is out for the year and I would be surprised to see Filkins return. Let's line up Robinson and Daniels in the backfield and hand the ball off to them. Can't be any worse for the running game then we saw yesterday.

Interesting thought

Yes, make him a running back. Out of the wildcat, it's pointless.