Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - Printable Version
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Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - msqueri - 10-31-2022
A fact that I've been highlighting in my summaries is that we haven't had a single FBS game that surpassed the national average for points per game since October 16, 2021. Not one single game that was even above average. Many fans have an image in their head that 30 points is the threshold for good offense. That is an antiquated notion. 30 points is exactly average in modern college football (this year the median is 29.4). If you're good you're scoring 38+ points per game. Stanford's offense is actually worse than many fans assume.
To me the way to meaningfully visualize this in an apples-to-apples way is to look at what percentile we rank in FBS. That way you're accounting for evolution in the game. Here is the major college football scoring offense percentile for every Stanford offense since 1960 (I realize I'm doing percentiles backwards here but doing it this way saved me A LOT of math and this is just a quick exercise):
1. 2011 (5.8)
2. 1969 (7.4)
3. 2010 (7.5)
4. 1999 (7.9)
5. 1980 (8.0)
6. 1975 (8.8)
7. 2009 (10.0)
8. 2001 (10.3)
9. 1982 (11.5)
10. 1981 (11.7)
11. 2015 (14.1)
12. 1978 (14.5)
13. 1970 (16.3)
14. 1991 (17.8)
15. 1968 (21.8)
16. 1994 (25.2)
17. 1972 (26.8)
18. 1979 (28.6)
19. 2017 (29.2)
20. 1995 (29.6)
21. 1977 (30.3)
22. 1993 (34.9)
23. 1976 (35.8)
24. 2013 (36.0)
25. 1971 (36.7)
26. 1992 (39.3)
27. 1987 (43.3)
28. 1973 (43.4)
29. 2020 (43.8)
30. 2008 (45.4)
31. 1990 (47.7)
32. 1964 (48.3)
33. 1985 (49.1)
34. 1986 (49.5)
35. 1963 (50.0)
35. 1984 (50.0)
37. 1997 (53.6)
38. 1998 (55.4)
39. 1988 (56.2)
39. 2018 (56.2)
41. 2012 (58.1)
42. 2005 (60.0)
43. 2000 (61.2)
44. 1965 (61.7)
45. 2014 (62.5)
46. 1966 (63.9)
47. 1974 (64.3)
48. 2016 (65.6)
49. 1967 (68.6)
50. 1996 (71.2)
51. 1962 (71.7)
52. 2004 (75.0)
53. 2022 (75.6)
54. 1960 (79.6)
55. 1961 (81.1)
56. 2002 (82.9)
57. 2019 (83.8)
58. 1989 (84.9)
59. 2021 (86.9)
60. 2007 (89.1)
61. 1983 (92.0)
62. 2003 (92.3)
63. 2006 (99.2)
Observations:
* Historically, the 1964 offense is our median scoring offense. To baseline the discussion, that means that middle of the road is scoring more than 51.7 percent of offenses nationally. In 2022, that would be scoring 30.1 points per game.
* Unsurprisingly, the all-time Stanford median is right around that 50 percent mid-point. The 50 percent mid-point in 2022 is 29.8/29.4 points per game.
* In terms of the sea level of Shawfense, across the last seven Stanford offenses we have five below the median, one right around the median, and a grand total of one good scoring offense in seven years.
* I'm the one who always talks about context and comparing apples-to-apples but even I was shocked to not see the 2015 Stanford offense crack the top ten. That's a testament to the evolution in college football. 37.8 points per game just doesn't mean what it used to.
* in terms of the immediate recent past, last year's Stanford offense and this year's Stanford offense are both in our historical bottom 16 percent. The 2021 offense was reminiscent of the Steve Smith/Brian Johnson 1989 offense and the TC Ostrander/Tavita Pritchard 2007 offense. The current offense is reminiscent of the 2004 offense that got Buddy Teevens fired and the Jack Curtice 1960 offense that went 0-10.
DSMG. QED.
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - cardcrimson - 10-31-2022
1980-82 and 2009-11 were a lot of fun, at least offensively. . . .
Great analysis. Can you forward it to Muir?
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - msqueri - 10-31-2022
In the initial post in this thread I gave the shot (historical ranking of Stanford's scoring offenses). Now here's the chaser (number of sub-par scoring seasons for each Power Five program in the years we've been in the Shawfense wilderness). The ranking of Power Five programs by number of sub-median scoring offense seasons from 2016-2022:
1. Alabama (0)
1. Ohio State (0)
1. Oregon (0)
1. Oklahoma (0)
1. Oklahoma State (0)
1. Texas (0)
1. Texas Tech (0)
8. Clemson (1)
8. Georgia (1)
8. Louisville (1)
8. Notre Dame (1)
8. Ole Miss (1)
8. Penn State (1)
8. TCU (1)
8. Texas A&M (1)
8. USC (1)
8. Utah (1)
8. Wake Forest (1)
19. Baylor (2)
19. Florida (2)
19. Michigan (2)
19. North Carolina (2)
19. Washington (2)
24. Arizona State (3)
24. Arkansas (3)
24. Auburn (3)
24. Iowa State (3)
24. Kansas State (3)
24. LSU (3)
24. Miami (3)
24. Minnesota (3)
24. Mississippi State (3)
24. Missouri (3)
24. NC State (3)
24. Oregon State (3)
24. Pitt (3)
24. UCLA (3)
24. Virginia Tech (3)
24. Washington State (3)
24. West Virginia (3)
24. Wisconsin (3)
42.Arizona (4)
42. BYU (4)
42. Purdue (4)
42. Tennessee (4)
42. Virginia (4)
47. Colorado (5)
47. Duke (5)
47. Florida State (5)
47. Indiana (5)
47. Iowa (5)
47. Kentucky (5)
47. Maryland (5)
47. South Carolina (5)
47. Stanford (5)
47. Syracuse (5)
57. Boston College (6)
57. Cal (6)
57. Georgia Tech (6)
57. Kansas (6)
57. Michigan State (6)
57. Nebraska (6)
57. Northwestern (6)
64. Illinois (7)
64. Rutgers (7)
64. Vanderbilt (7)
For my next party trick, I'll take the 20 most ignominious offenses in Power Five football (those that have been subpar at least five of the last seven years) and rank them based on their 247 composite talent rankings:
17. Florida State
20. South Carolina
23. Stanford
24. Nebraska
26. Kentucky
30. Georgia Tech
34. Michigan State
35. Maryland
38. Iowa
39. Indiana
42. Boston College
47. Cal
49. Northwestern
57. Illinois
58. Rutgers
61. Vanderbilt
63. Colorado
64. Duke
66. Syracuse
71. Kansas
Ultimately, there are five truly, woefully under-achieving offensive teams over the last seven years: Florida State, South Carolina, Stanford, Nebraska, and Kentucky. Mike Norvell has had Florida State's offense trending up the last three years and this year they're actually above-average. Shane Beamer is only in his second year and has South Carolina's scoring offense just a tick above-average so far this year. Nebraska fired Scott Frost this fall for his failures.
I'm left with Stanford and Kentucky as programs riding with coaches who have struggled to field above-average offenses. But Stanford has been worse recently. Kentucky was #35 in scoring offense last year and #97 so far this year while Stanford was #113 last year and is #99 so far this year. And, of course, Kentucky has had an elite defense during this time, which makes it a much more defensible thing to ride with Stoops than it is for Stanford to ride with Shaw. After all, Shaw is supposed to be an offensive coach. We sacrifice defensive attention and identity for a coach who fashions himself an offensive mind....and gives us the most under-achieving offense in Power Five football.
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - OutsiderFan - 10-31-2022
I have an idea.
Put David Shaw's performance in metrics related to either SAT and GPA or whatever is used to judge Stanford Professor performance.
Only when the level of achievement is put in terms Stanford's "brass" can understand will Shaw's level of performance be truly appreciated, and maybe not found acceptable to Stanford standards.
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - Treebound - 10-31-2022
As usual, Msqueri, great analysis!
It's not lost on me that I think 7 of the top 10 offenses that you list were under the leadership of either Andrew Luck, John Elway or Jim Plunkett. I think we are due for another "once in a generation QB"...please. Of course we need an OC and O-line as well.
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - BostonCard - 10-31-2022
Maybe I am biased by recent performances, but I was surprised that the offense this year has scored more than 24% of offenses in FBS. I think most advanced metrics put the Stanford offense below that. We are 109th out of 134 teams (bottom 20%) in terms of offensive scoring per drive, and our offensive output has been buoyed by our game against an FCS opponent. I don't know where 14.67 ppg (our last three game average) would rank, but I am guessing pretty low.
The concern is that the trend has moved almost monotonically downward. After our 41 point offensive outburst against Colgate, we scored in the 20's the next four games, and in the teens the following three. We've basically been trending down 3 points per game, so I expect we will be shut out by BYU.
BC
RE: Stanford Scoring Offenses (1960-2022) - PAsportsfan - 10-31-2022
Shaw is garbage…time scorer. Any chance he can get demoted from the OC position a second time?