Line vs. Utah - Printable Version

Line vs. Utah - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Line vs. Utah (/thread-23683.html)

Line vs. Utah - Austroturf - 11-07-2022

Utes favored by 24.

The ESPN Match-Up Predictor has Utah at 94.1%. I can't ever remember seeing a Stanford match-up with only 5.9% win probability. Yes, we have a raft of injuries, but so do the Utes. Brutal. But honest.

RE: Line vs. Utah - Phogge - 11-07-2022

They should win by twice the spread.

RE: Line vs. Utah - msqueri - 11-07-2022

That ESPN predictor number is more bullish on us than the spread. That spread translates to an essentially zero percent chance of winning. The Sagarin differential (about 20 points when you account for home field advantage) is about a zero to one percent chance.

RE: Line vs. Utah - Austroturf - 11-07-2022

(11-07-2022, 03:57 PM)msqueri Wrote: That ESPN predictor number is more bullish on us than the spread. That spread translates to an essentially zero percent chance of winning. The Sagarin differential (about 20 points when you account for home field advantage) is about a zero to one percent chance.

Yes, I think the predictor doesn't include new and recent information. The line always does. Unless Utah shows up late for the game, our chances are effectively nil.

RE: Line vs. Utah - BostonCard - 11-07-2022

I mean, WSU beat us by 38; I have no reason to believe that Utah would not exceed that margin, except that after 3 or so touchdowns, the final margin can be dependent on to what extent the winning team keeps is focus and to what extent the losing team capitulates.

I would probably give the points and take Utah if I were a betting man. We are at the point of the season where the team gives up. We were 0-4 in November in both 2019 and 2021 (2020 was an odd year because of the COVID schedule), scoring an average of 15.6 points per game and giving up an average of 39.4 ppg, and the first game we played in Nov. 2022 was no different. The last two non-COVID seasons have featured brutal Novembers where we didn't just lose, we got beaten to a pulp. I have seen nothing to make me think this year will be different.

BC

RE: Line vs. Utah - gailtate - 11-07-2022

After long and careful deliberation, I take Utah and the points.

RE: Line vs. Utah - BostonCard - 11-07-2022

(11-07-2022, 04:59 PM)gailtate Wrote: After long and careful deliberation, I take Utah and the points.

https://www.si.com/betting/2020/06/24/gambling-101-taking-points

So we are all on the same page, you are taking Utah and giving the points. You take the points if you are betting on the underdog.

Quote:Give and take opportunities are available in a variety of competitions. Gamblers who take points are backing the underdog while bettors who give points are betting on the favorite. Players can take points with basketball and football point spread odds. Run lines are offered in baseball and puck lines are available in hockey. Players who take points receive a “head-start” prior to a competition and their side must win or stay within the spread to cash winning wagers.

RE: Line vs. Utah - PAsportsfan - 11-07-2022

(11-07-2022, 07:22 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(11-07-2022, 04:59 PM)gailtate Wrote: After long and careful deliberation, I take Utah and the points.

https://www.si.com/betting/2020/06/24/gambling-101-taking-points

So we are all on the same page, you are taking Utah and giving the points. You take the points if you are betting on the underdog.

Quote:Give and take opportunities are available in a variety of competitions. Gamblers who take points are backing the underdog while bettors who give points are betting on the favorite. Players can take points with basketball and football point spread odds. Run lines are offered in baseball and puck lines are available in hockey. Players who take points receive a “head-start” prior to a competition and their side must win or stay within the spread to cash winning wagers.

BC

Heads I win, tails you lose.