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BCS #6 - Farm93 - 11-20-2011

The path is available, it really is for Stanford to get into the BCS Title game.  Stanford probably will not need the automatic invite clause, but #3 & #4 are certainly viable.

Just win!  Beat the Irish!

And then....
Go LSU Tigers! Go Auburn Tigers! Go Clemson Tigers and Go Sooners!  Easy!

And of course, Go Beavs!

Re: BCS #6 - dabigv13 - 11-20-2011

Despite losing to Iowa State, OK St is still almost unanimously #2 in the computer rankings. Just dumbfounding. We really will need them to lose to Oklahoma unfortunately. But Oklahoma is so loved by the computers, that I wonder if that will even make enough of a difference, or if THEY will jump us.

Seriously, the Big 12 has figured out this computer nonsense.

We need to beat the Irish in a convincing fashion, and hope to get a little bit of help from Auburn and Oklahoma. I think a voter sniff test at the end of the season will take care of a Va Tech problem.

Re: BCS #6 - fullmetal - 11-20-2011

Whaaaat??  Okie St. didn't drop much?  Fie.  What if Arkansas's implied eventual loss to LSU doesn't drop them below Stanford?  VA Tech had better drop below Stanford.

Re: BCS #6 - Cardinal96 - 11-20-2011

We will be ranked ahead of any two loss team I believe in the BCS, with the possible exception of Alabama.

Re: BCS #6 - OutsiderFan - 11-20-2011

VT ahead of Stanford is absurd.  Virginia may very well take them.  Hoos are playing at home and the winner goes to the ACC CG. 

Stanford certainly has to beat Notre Dame this week.  If they do, they will have as good a case as anyone to be ranked in the Top 4, and guarantee a spot in a BCS Bowl game.  Notre Dame is a very good and underrated team that is not very far from being undefeated.




Re: BCS #6 - Row80Critic - 11-20-2011

1. LSU -- assume they win out
2. Alabama -- must lose to Auburn (tall order -- AL is favored by 19.5)
3. Arkansas -- must lose ugly to LSU (they 14 pt underdogs), dropping below Stanford
4. Oklahoma State -- must lose to Ok ( bonus pts if Ok loses to Iowa St first!)
5. Virginia Tech -- must lose to Virginia (VT is a 4.5 favorite) or Clemson
6. Stanford -- most importantly -- must beat Notre Dame!!!!

Oregon is a 29.5 point favorite over our best friends in Corvallis, so Rose Bowl seems unlikely.  Curiously, the odds seem better for the BCS championship game than the Rose Bowl, but either one would depend on a big upset (against Alabama or Oregon).  However, it seems probable that Stanford will make it to the top 4 (if not 3) without big upsets, which would guarantee them a BCS Bowl.  With a win over ND, and no help at all, still seems very likely they get picked up as highly ranked at-large team.  So just win baby win....

Re: BCS #6 - Farm93 - 11-20-2011

I think the odds of one rivalry team winning on the road as a 29 point underdog, is a bit more possible than all of those upsets going Stanford's way.  Either way the BCS Title game and Rose Bowl both feel unlikely, but both are possible.

Looking back on things Stanford can control.  It starts with beating Notre Dame.

Beat Notre Dame (again) and Luck almost certainly wins the Voldemort.
Stanford probably goes to the Fiesta Bowl, which is pretty good IMHO.
2 BCS Bowls, 3 wins over USC, 3 wins over Notre Dame and 2 wins over C.a.l.  2 Voldemort Trophy runner-ups and.... ;)

If Stanford falls to Notre Dame, then
Luck might not win the Voldemort, but could still pull it out.
Stanford might not go to the Fiesta Bowl, but could still get an invite.

Perspective is important here, this is not LSU or Michigan or Ohio State where BCS invites and 10 win seasons become some type of State right.  This is Stanford, and this has been a very, very, very good 3 year stretch.

Thank You Andrew!!!

Re: BCS #6 - bulldogbigred - 11-20-2011

Actually the chances for the championship are still a possibility, although slim, but look at this week's chaos.
Let's try and play out the rest of the season.
1. LSU (I think will probably beat Arkansas, and a LSU loss to Arkansas would hurt Stanford's chances because the computers and voters will not put LSU behind Stanford) But root against LSU when playing the Dawgs in the SEC championship game.
2. Alabama (We need them to loose to have a realistic shot at the championship game. This Iron Bowl game is at Auburn, so I think there is a possibility)
3. Arkansas (We want the Hogs to lose to LSU because an LSU loss won't drop them below Stanford but an Arkansas loss to LSU will drop the Hogs below the Cardinal)
4. Oklahoma State (I still think they will lose to Oklahoma in the Bedlam game. I guarantee it.)
5. Virginia Tech (Come on! Put them on upset alert against Virginia and if they don't lose there Clemson will happily do the job for us in the ACC championship game).

So the most realistic options that we need for us to sneak in the Big Dance are
Oklahoma State losing, Virginia Tech tripping up, Arkansas losing fairly decisively a 14 point loss would do. I am fairly confident that these 3 teams will lose, pushing Stanford up to the 3 slot. However, the major problem is the possibility of Alabama and/or LSU losing a game that they are highly favored in. It is possible? Yes. Is it probable? Maybe. Just ask Oklahoma State.

But if Arkansas wins, I think it screws everything up because of the orgy of SEC West teams at the top. It would help if Oregon lost to Oregon State, then we would have one more week to prove that we belong in the national title discussion.

The chances of Alabama losing to Auburn and/or LSU losing to Georgia are a pretty tall order. Its possible though.
But I can see us at the No. 3 spot at the end of the December 3.

Re: BCS #6 - fullmetal - 11-20-2011

So the only things we really have to reach for are Bama losing and Ok St. losing again.  All right now...

Re: BCS #6 - pincemob - 11-20-2011

The BCS really sucks (much of) the fun out of college football.  How does any honest assessment put us behind Arkansas & V-Tech?!  Oklahoma State is a talented team (granted, their QB is older than Aaron Rodgers), but Arkansas & VT are fairly pedestrian and certainly not on our level. 



Re: BCS #6 - CowboyIndian - 11-20-2011

(11-20-2011, 09:00 PM)norcalcard link Wrote:The BCS really sucks (much of) the fun out of college football. 

I don't think so. Look at all these posts, which seems like some fun to me. The problems arise from the assumptions built into the computers, which seem fixable if there's a will. I like the suggestion of using score differential up to a certain point....say, 3 touchdowns.

Re: BCS #6 - jwmann2 - 11-20-2011

I really can't stand the bcs. A team like Stanford playing with no certainty of playing in the title game.
5 bcs games = ten teams. Top two ranked get the bye and are in opposite brackets. Just start training camp in July and the season in early august so players are off for final exams.

Re: BCS #6 - george - 11-21-2011

(11-20-2011, 08:12 PM)Farm93 link Wrote:Stanford probably goes to the Fiesta Bowl, which is pretty good IMHO.

The general consensus seems to be that if we end up going to a bowl game it will most likely be the Fiesta bowl.  NCG or Rose bowl are cited as outside chances depending on some pretty big upsets.  I'm curious though, what happens with the Sugar Bowl if we get an LSU/Alabama rematch in the title game?  There's still the rule about only 2 teams from each conference being allowed to play in a BCS game, right?  So would the Sugar Bowl get to select 2 teams?  How would that work in terms of the order of selection?  With the ACC probably only sending one team (Orange Bowl), might we end up in New Orleans playing a Big XII team or even something wacky like Boise State or Houston?  How would that play out in SEC country?

Re: BCS #6 - TreeFitty - 11-21-2011

(11-21-2011, 12:03 PM)george link Wrote:So would the Sugar Bowl get to select 2 teams?  How would that work in terms of the order of selection?

I think the selection order is:

1. Sugar - to replace SEC champ
2. Fiesta - to pick opponent for Big 12 Champ
3. Sugar - to pick opponent for the team replacing the SEC champ
4. Orange - to pick opponent for ACC champ


Re: BCS #6 - jayasena - 11-21-2011

(11-21-2011, 12:03 PM)george link Wrote:The general consensus seems to be that if we end up going to a bowl game it will most likely be the Fiesta bowl.  NCG or Rose bowl are cited as outside chances depending on some pretty big upsets.  I'm curious though, what happens with the Sugar Bowl if we get an LSU/Alabama rematch in the title game?  There's still the rule about only 2 teams from each conference being allowed to play in a BCS game, right?  So would the Sugar Bowl get to select 2 teams?  How would that work in terms of the order of selection?  With the ACC probably only sending one team (Orange Bowl), might we end up in New Orleans playing a Big XII team or even something wacky like Boise State or Houston?  How would that play out in SEC country?

I think it's fairly safe to say we will be going to a bowl game (barring something extremely extraordinary like NCAA sanctions) :)

In the case of an LSU-Alabama NCG, Sugar does get the first pick to replace the SEC champ it loses to the NCG. I guess the question is do they see Stanford as the most appealing pick. Most prognosticators seem to think they'll grab Michigan. Of course, that assumes Michigan beats Ohio State this weekend. And yes, if we do go to the Sugar, we could end up playing Houston. Of course, that assumes Houston beats Tulsa and I'm not sure that's a given.

Personally, I'd rather see us in the Fiesta against the Big 12 champ.


I'm not that worried. - jacketree - 11-21-2011

Other than beating ND, which is ha-uge (otherwise what, Alamo or Holiday?) I think AL is enough to get Stanford a BCS invite.  My prediction is that chaos is over and everything will go per plan, leaving the following BCS match-ups:

Title Game:  LSU vs. Alabama  (Bama wins the rematch. On a field goal.)
Rose: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Sugar: Michigan vs. Houston  (What, Houston?  Sure. Undefeated Case Keenum vs. Traditional Power. Full house.)
Fiesta: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford  (Bedlam is in Stillwater. Fiesta Bowl scoring record will fall.)
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. some Big East team  (I mean Some Big East Team. Should show the proper respect.)


Re: BCS #6 - Farm93 - 11-21-2011

With all of Stanford's injuries at WR/TE and DB I am not in love with the idea of playing Oklahoma State, but I love the idea of the Fiesta Bowl.