WBB: Stanford 63 -- Oregon State 60

WBB: Stanford 63 -- Oregon State 60 - Printable Version

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WBB: Stanford 63 -- Oregon State 60 - 81alum - 01-24-2023

Preview:

Oregon State has not been as formidable this year as in some recent years, but the recent addition of freshman Timea Gardiner (ESPN #6 overall for 2022), who has played only 3 games and just won freshman-of-the-week, seems to be changing their fortunes--helping OSU to a win over state rival Oregon. So all the stats on Oregon State are going to be obsolete, divided into the pre-Gardiner and the post-Gardiner team. That is just as well, since the Oregon State website doesn't have this year's stats even posted and I had to scrounge for them elsewhere.

Oregon State is 50th by Massey, 59th in NET, is 4/4 in conference play, 13/6 overall, and is unranked. They have lost to some good teams--Iowa, Duke, LSU, Oregon, USC, etc. Their best wins were beating UCLA and Oregon--good wins indeed.

Looking at the boxscore from their last game against Oregon shows that OSU started four guards and its giant post.

Talia Von Oelhoffen, the 5'11" sophomore guard, had 16 points, 4 assists, and 7 rebounds in that game. She is clearly the team leader in many ways. TVO is probably their best three point shooter but barely over 30%--not sure why the threes are not falling better for a Rueck team--that was largely how they beat us at Maples a few years ago.

Jelena Mitrovic is a 3rd year player and their 6'9" center. She had 11 rebounds and 9 points. I could easily see Betts getting some time against her.

Oregon State has two transfer guards starting: 6'1" Shallexus Aaron (on her 3rd school, though we know her from USC) and 5'10" Bendu Yeany (from Arizona.) And they also started another guard -- this one is home-grown -- 5'6" junior Noelle Mannon. Yeany doesn't shoot threes well but is a glue player who does a bit of everything and scores 7ppg. Mannon and Aaron are scoring points in the mid single digits and shooting threes in the high 25-30% range.

Coming off the bench is their freshman sensation, Timea Gardner, a 6'3" freshman forward, who played for 23 minutes and scored 15 points on 70% shooting. She also was 1/3 from three point range. She didn't play until recently due to an "unspecified" injury. Clearly another highly talented forward who has an inside/outside game. I bet Tara looks carefully at the tape she does have, though, not only to figure out how to defend her but also to see what her defense is like. Perhaps someone like Brink could take advantage of a freshman defender.

On the season, OSU's second leading scorer is Raegan Beers, a 6'4" freshman forward, but her playing time was down to 13 minutes, perhaps due to the need for OSU to go small, perhaps due to the emergence of Gardner. My guess is that since we are not a guard-heavy team, that we will see a lot of Beers this game even if Oregon did not.

Coach Rueck always prides himself on his defensive scouts. He would love to win a 51-49 game. Our USC game was no doubt his kind of dream, and I'm sure he has devoured that tape. His players don't score a lot of points--in part because they don't have to, and because OSU slows games down to a plodding pace. I'm sure he will try to stop any transition points and make it into a strictly half-court on half-court game. In the half court his defenses traditionally are a lot like our defenses--not excessively close but very sound positionally, cutting off open lanes and making opponents work for every point.

Therefore, I doubt our offense will ride roughshod over OSU, and so our defense will continue to be very important. TVO is shifty and will require our own sound positional defense--whether that means Emma-Nnopu, a returning Lepolo, or maybe Nivar I'm not sure. We won't necessarily have a height advantage inside, but I do think our bigs are more skillful than theirs. Gardner is the wild card since we have never played against her and we have very little film to watch on her, but after TVO, she is clearly the player to worry about.

As a whole, Oregon State has three quality "bigs" and a bevy of guards, so they have some flexibility and depth, and if their Oregon win is an indicator, they are finally beginning to come together as a team.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - martyup - 01-24-2023

These are the games I worry about the most. Our loss at USC proves that there are no gimmes in the Pac-12.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - Jskass - 01-24-2023

plus IIRC both TVO and Gardiner were on our recruiting radar (pretty sure the first had an offer, no insights on the second) so they may have special interest in this game.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 09:54 AM)martyup Wrote: These are the games I worry about the most. Our loss at USC proves that there are no gimmes in the Pac-12.

We should be concerned, but I am not as worried about the two home games coming up as the many away games that are left. We don't play the Oregon schools in Oregon this year. But going to Arizona, going to Utah, going to Colorado--even going to Washington and WSU--any of those games is dangerous, and while the odds of winning any one of them are reasonable, the odds of winning all of them are not unless we become more dominant offensively. It would be nice to get out to 20+ point leads more often than we have been doing, so that not many games come down to the fourth quarter. Having a big lead in the latter part of the game is the best way to win on the road, although that is easier said than done, given the improvements in the conference.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - Card10Fan - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 10:08 AM)Jskass Wrote: plus IIRC both TVO and Gardiner were on our recruiting radar (pretty sure the first had an offer, no insights on the second) so they may have special interest in this game.

TVO and Gardiner both had Stanford offers and we were on shortlists for both; maybe even second choice for both. Gardiner was narrowed down to OSU, Stanford, and UCLA. I can't remember TVO.

Oregon State is actually a team we match up very well against. Their style of play is not disruptive, nor do they have exceptional guard play aside from TVO. They don't press and turn you over. I think it's a team we can defend inside and score points against. We've won 11 straight in this series and our average margin of victory the last couple years has been around 20 points. This is not one of the better OSU teams compared to years past in games I've watched. Their program has fallen some from their peak back in 2016.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - Leftcoast - 01-24-2023

Indeed. When it comes to ensuring a win, the only thing better then having a big lead in the LATTER part of the game is having a big lead at the END of the game.

(01-24-2023, 10:20 AM)81alum Wrote: Having a big lead in the latter part of the game is the best way to win on the road, although that is easier said than done, given the improvements in the conference.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - WBB fan - 01-24-2023

I'm nervous about OSU, definitely a team that Stanford should not be complacent about. They are dangerous. Others must feel the same way since they received 6 votes in this week's coaches poll, equal to USC in this poll this week. [Colorado got 28]

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - mbdude - 01-24-2023

(292) Betts and Beers is the next best rivalry in basketball - YouTube

interview prior to leaving high school. I have seen a few other interviews with Beers - very affable, well spoken. Like her and her game

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 06:39 PM)mbdude Wrote: interview prior to leaving high school. I have seen a few other interviews with Beers - very affable, well spoken. Like her and her game

I can see why! "After the game it is always going to end in a hug!"

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - CardinalWBBFan - 01-24-2023

While Gardiner gives OSU an additional scoring threat, they still struggle mightily from beyond the arc. In their eight conference games, they've shot over 30% from three just twice (7-17 against ASU and 5-11 against UCLA). I think they'd have to shoot it pretty well from three to give the Cardinal a scare.

They do have some impressive young talent and if they can keep that core together and improve their guard play they'll be formidable in the PAC-12.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - stopandpop - 01-24-2023

I'm glad we're playing Oregon State on Friday and not Sunday. That means we will have a longer/better prep for the Beavers, who in my opinion, are a superior team to Oregon. That longer prep gives me some comfort going into Friday night.

6'4 freshman Raegan Beers played alongside of Betts in last year's Jordan Brand all-American game and she has twice been selected as PAC-12 freshman of the week. Not the quickest player you'll see, but very strong and dominant in the low block with a soft touch. She could well play big minutes. If Scott puts Beers & Gardiner in together, I'm not sure we'll get many rebounds. 6'9 Mitrovic is much improved and more mobile.

TVO had her first real good game against Oregon after a number of mediocre games.

If Jump is being face-guarded and/or not hitting her 3's and if Brink has another off-shooting night, we can be in for a drag-out defensive battle. Do not overlook this opponent.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 08:14 PM)CardinalWBBFan Wrote: They do have some impressive young talent and if they can keep that core together and improve their guard play they'll be formidable in the PAC-12.

Agreed. However, Rueck, for some reason I cannot fathom, has had a tough time keeping his players over the last few years. Imagine how they would be over the last couple of years if Destiny Slocum, Sasha Goforth, Taylor Jones, and Kennedy Brown had not all transferred. Rueck has shown himself to be a capable coach and he seems like he cares about his players. Is it just Corvallis?

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 2006alum - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 09:17 PM)81alum Wrote:
(01-24-2023, 08:14 PM)CardinalWBBFan Wrote: They do have some impressive young talent and if they can keep that core together and improve their guard play they'll be formidable in the PAC-12.
Agreed. However, Rueck, for some reason I cannot fathom, has had a tough time keeping his players over the last few years. Imagine how they would be over the last couple of years if Destiny Slocum, Sasha Goforth, Taylor Jones, and Kennedy Brown had not all transferred. Rueck has shown himself to be a capable coach and he seems like he cares about his players. Is it just Corvallis?

In fairness to Rueck, some of these out transfers deserve asterisks. Slocum had transferred in previously from Maryland, had been heavily recruited by Mike Neighbors out of HS (who himself left Washington for Arkansas just as she was transferring from Maryland), and left when her classmates had graduated, and right as the COVID lockdowns began.

Goforth, meanwhile, had developed a debilitating chronic stomach disease her senior year of HS after she committed to OSU, transferred back home to Arkansas in hopes that being closer to home would ease her symptoms, and then medically retired from the sport a year later when they didn't abate.

I'm less certain about Jones and Brown, but both spent three years in Corvallis, and each had to take a medical red-shirt year, so they hardly decamped at the first opportunity. I agree that his recent retention record is pockmarked, but to me the transfers out were less troubling when you know the specific facts of each case. That's especially true compared to, say, his neighbor down in Eugene, who has seemed to have constant churn in and out since Ionescu et al. graduated, to say nothing of Barnes in Tucson, which has had nearly two full roster turnovers since they came one point from a national championship a mere two seasons ago.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-24-2023

(01-24-2023, 09:33 PM)2006alum Wrote: In fairness to Rueck, some of these out transfers deserve asterisks..

Thank you for that information, particularly about Goforth. That is rather sad. I'm not persuaded that the other three cases have plausible, benign explanations, however--other than just that "everyone is doing it" these days. But agree that Oregon, Arizona, and throw in USC have become teams built on free agency. Disappointing.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - OCcardinal - 01-26-2023

Some fun records to track in the coming games:

Hannah Jump's Career Made 3s

Hannah Jump currently has 249 made 3-point shots made in her career. That puts her tied at 4th all time in the Stanford record book, despite not being a full time starter until this season. Assuming she keeps up her average of 3.1 made threes per game, she would have 292 3s made by the time of the Pac 12 championship (assuming Stanford plays in that game). That certainly puts Candice Wiggins' 295 in striking distance. And if Jump and Stanford have a good NCAA tournament, reaching Kiana Williams' 311 is not impossible. That would be remarkable given the disparity in minutes played (Williams played 4,333 minutes. Jump is currently at 2259).

3-Pointers Made
1. 311 Kiana Williams 2017-21
2. 295 Candice Wiggins 2004-08
3. 268 Jeanette Pohlen 2007-11
4. 249 Karlie Samuelson 2013-17
5. 237 Bonnie Samuelson 2011-15

Brink's Career Blocks

Similarly, Cameron Brink has 251 career blocked shots. Despite being just a junior, only Jayne Appel remains ahead of her on that stat. If Brink keeps up her season average of 3.4 blocks per game, she would pass Appel in 7 games, which would be our revenge game against USC!

Blocked Shots
1. 273 Jayne Appel 2006-10
2. 225 Alanna Smith 2015-19
3. 202 Chiney Ogwumike 2010-14
4. 201 Val Whiting 1989-93
5. 200 Erica McCall 2013-17

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - BobK - 01-26-2023

LOve this thanks for the updates.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-26-2023

Those are great stats and I am sure Jump will make it. And if she comes back for a fifth year.....

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - BosCard - 01-26-2023

(01-26-2023, 10:32 AM)81alum Wrote: Those are great stats and I am sure Jump will make it. And if she comes back for a fifth year.....

I was thinking the same thing. Hope Jump comes back. She could be our leading scorer next year and have the potential for national honors (along with Brink of course).

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - martyup - 01-26-2023

(01-26-2023, 05:01 PM)BosCard Wrote:
(01-26-2023, 10:32 AM)81alum Wrote: Those are great stats and I am sure Jump will make it. And if she comes back for a fifth year.....

I was thinking the same thing. Hope Jump comes back. She could be our leading scorer next year and have the potential for national honors (along with Brink of course).

And potentially win her 3rd National Championship as a Cardinal.
[Image: giphy.gif]

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Oregon State Friday 8pm - 81alum - 01-27-2023

Over at the Beaver's boards there is some interested analysis of what OSU ought to do to have a chance against us tonight.

https://bennyshouse.com/thread/23108/stanford

Most Beaver fans are not too optimistic, but blanketing jump and pushing Brink around with stronger posts seems to be their prescription.