Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - Printable Version
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Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - msqueri - 02-07-2023
A year ago tomorrow, I shared Bill Connelly's SP+ observation that Stanford had an extraordinary amount of returning production for 2022. At that time, he calculated Stanford as having the #3 most returning production in the nation, most in a Power Five conference, and far and away the most in the Pac-12 (next closest was Arizona State at #32). As happens when a team has that much returning production, the natural pendulum swing for the next year is to have very little returning production. As all of us who follow Stanford football know, that pendulum swing hit with with force as Shaw departed and Taylor came on board. Now, Connelly/SP+ have put numbers out to contextualize it (including transfers in calculations given the changed landscape):
Connelly calculates that in 2023 Stanford returns a paltry 35 percent of its production, #129 in the country and dead last among Power Five teams. On offense we are #129 and on defense #128. TCU is the only Power Five offense with less returning production (33 percent to our 34 percent) and no Power Five defense returns less. Yikes.
Those of us setting expectations for 2023 need to account for this being one of the absolute least proven or experienced teams in the country. Moreover, oftentimes teams score low on this list because they were really good the previous year - Alabama has the second least returning production in Power Five football and I already mentioned TCU. Stanford is low not because we were good. We're the oddity of a team that was terrible despite being more experienced than anybody and now gets to be terrible while being less experienced than everybody. As we know, quite a rebuild task ahead for Taylor.
I keep saying it but I will view 2023 as a good year for Stanford football if the team is exactly as bad as it was in 2022. The climb is that steep.
By the way, SP+ has USC, Utah, and Washington as three of the teams most likely to improve in 2023 so, especially given where those teams already were, the Pac-12 could be quite good in 2023. One last hurrah before losing USC.
RE: Tempering 2023 expectations: returning production - gailtate - 02-07-2023
I'll go farther. The "cupboard" is not only bare, the shelves are missing. I'm hoping for a win somewhere somehow, but an 0-fer this year is real possibility, smirk and snark all you want. I'm sure TT is fully aware. I just hope he can field a watchable product. THAT would be an accomplishment.
RE: Tempering 2023 expectations: returning production - msqueri - 02-07-2023
(02-07-2023, 09:24 AM)gailtate Wrote: I'll go farther. The "cupboard" is not only bare, the shelves are missing. I'm hoping for a win somewhere somehow, but an 0-fer this year is real possibility, smirk and snark all you want. I'm sure TT is fully aware. I just hope he can field a watchable product. THAT would be an accomplishment.
I won't smirk and snark at that, I will outright ridicule you. We aren't playing Hawaii, Sacramento State, and Colorado and getting Arizona and Cal at home and going winless. Shaw at his worst would have won a few games against this schedule. What I won't do is declare the sky is falling if we win three or four games. But if Taylor plays THIS schedule and goes winless? Fire his ass before he gets to the locker room against Notre Dame. Should probably do that if he wins only one game.
You have no idea what you're talking about with regard to the state of Hawaii, Sacramento State, or Colorado football if you think there's any real chance we go winless.
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - old spanish trail - 02-07-2023
Question: I know Sanders has biggly improved recruiting. Anybody know if he is bringing in a bunch of good transfers?
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - BostonCard - 02-07-2023
Well, he is bringing his previously top ranked recruit with him from Jackson state, plus a highly ranked transfer from Alabama, and then a lot of lightly regarded players:
https://www.on3.com/college/colorado-buffaloes/football/2023/industry-comparison-transfers/
Matt probably has this much better analyzed, but in terms of rankings, I didn’t see much beyond the top two.
BC
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - JohnR34231 - 02-08-2023
(02-07-2023, 11:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Well, he is bringing his previously top ranked recruit with him from Jackson state, plus a highly ranked transfer from Alabama, and then a lot of lightly regarded players:
https://www.on3.com/college/colorado-buffaloes/football/2023/industry-comparison-transfers/
Matt probably has this much better analyzed, but in terms of rankings, I didn’t see much beyond the top two.
BC
He is also bringing in a top DB recruit from Florida, who 247 Sports has ranked in the top 15 for 2023.
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - BostonCard - 02-08-2023
I was replying to the question about transfers.
BC
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - msqueri - 02-08-2023
Colorado has almost certainly improved more via the transfer portal than any team in the country. ESPN's team transfer rankings out this morning have Colorado #1. On3 says #2. 247 says #5. Regardless of whether one has the Buffs #1 or #5, I think it's fair to say the transfer portal is improving their overall talent more than any other team, considering Colorado's base talent level was so much worse than the other contenders (e.g., UCLA, Florida State, USC, etc.).
It's really a historic influx. The headliner is Travis Hunter, the #1 player in the country in his class in 2022 and a two-way sensation generally considered the best transfer in the nation. (By the way, due to the incoming 2023 recruit Cormani McClain, Colorado has the best on paper corner back duo in the history of college football bar none. Not even debatable on paper given their recruiting rankings.) But probably more significant is Coach Prime's son Shedeur Sanders, as he was one of the top FCS QBs in the nation as a freshman and that kind of talent is a very good bet to be a major upgrade at the most important position on the field. As a reference, the immediately two previous Jerry Rice Award winners were Washington State transfer Cameron Ward and San Francisco 49ers QB Trey Lance. In 2022 Colorado's QB JT Shrout was dead last in the Pac-12 in Total QBR whereas Ward was a more middling 8th. I think one would project that Shedeur Sanders will likely be a mediocre Pac-12 QB in 2023, which is such a massive deal for a program like Colorado which hasn't had a Cameron Ward-level QB (assuming for the sake of argument Sanders is that level) since 2016 or 2017. Colorado is also getting a quality LB transfer from Clemson in LaVonta Bentley, an extremely proven edge rusher from Arkansas in Jordan Domineck, a proven 500+ yard WR in Jimmy Horn Jr., a proven 600+ yard TE in Seydou Traore, an extremely experienced safety from Arkansas in Myles Slusher, an extremely experienced edge rusher from Michigan in Taylor Upshaw, and a former whale LB recruit from Alabama in Demouy Kennedy. Those are the headliners but there's more (such as All Name Team and proven Kentucky RB Kavosiey Smoke, Dartmouth stud DL Shane Cokes, etc.). Coach Prime really did bring luggage and it really was Louis (Vuitton). Gargantuan improvement in Colorado's talent, on both sides of the ball.
The issue is the floor Colorado is picking itself up from. They were WAY worse than Stanford has EVER been. Walt Harris and David Shaw at their worst aren't like what Coach Prime inherited. This team was #143 in the country last year. One.Hundred.Forty.Three. Unspeakable. By way of comparison, Stanford was #87. Colorado hasn't had an eight win season since 2016. This program was cratered out beyond anything one ever sees in Power Five football. So Coach Prime has a lot of work to do. He's got massive momentum and energy on his side and is going to be a force of nature there, the question is just how quickly he can pull them from the depths they reached.
I don't think it's a given which program does better in 2023 between Stanford and Colorado. Colorado certainly has a lot more buzz and injection of new talent, not by a country mile but by a continent. In addition to the transfer influx they also brought in a good 2023 recruiting class, including one of the mega whales nationally in McClain plus three other top 300 recruits (Stanford didn't have a single top 400 composite recruit). In 2022, the 247 talent composite put Stanford at #23 and Colorado at #63 but I'd expect both of them to approach convergence in 2023, with Stanford in the mid-30s and Colorado just a bit behind (though with the caveat that Colorado has so many transfers who are proven at the college level that their recruiting rankings likely underrate their talent level). I think it's pretty much a tossup who's better between Stanford and Colorado in 2023.
RE: Tempering 2023 Football expectations: returning production - old spanish trail - 02-08-2023
Thanks, guys. Much appreciated. It will indeed be interesting. I assume Azziz is no longer there.