Pac-12 pre-season poll - Printable Version
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Pac-12 pre-season poll - 82lsju - 07-21-2023
we're #12, looks like the pessimists think we finish 12th and the optimists think we finish 11th...
1. USC (25) 413
2. Washington (4) 367
3. Utah (6) 359
4. Oregon (1) 344
5. Oregon State 309
6. UCLA 248
7. Washington State 186
8. Arizona 176
9. California 132
10. Arizona State 122
11. Colorado 98
12. Stanford 54
https://pac-12.com/article/2023/07/20/media-predicts-usc-win-2023-pac-12-football-championship
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - msqueri - 07-21-2023
Given our expected finish and this season being all about vibes (at least more so than wins) I haven't dug into other teams to have a particularly informed view of the other teams in the conference. It is a safe, conventional wisdom thing to pick Stanford last. Finishing last is so bad that it's probably a bad bet any given team will finish last last but somebody has to. Stanford is one of the more likely teams to finish last and I get why most are picking us to.
I'm pleasantly surprised the media is so bearish on Colorado. They have a ton of work to do and a ton of question marks and it's interesting that the Pac-12 media isn't buying what Coach Prime is selling except in the sense of leap frogging one team in the standings. I bet his health issues have something to do with it.
Pretty surprised to see Cal 9th. Not a lot separates them from the other cellar dwellers in my view. But, again, somebody has to be 9th/10th/11th/12th.
I don't know how many years Stanford has been preseason last place. I know that we've been real life end of season last place in 1959, 1960, 1963, 1966 (in conference record but not the worst overall record), 1983, 1988 (technically 1-5-2 in conference to Cal's 1-5-1 but a worse overall record so I'm comfortable calling that last....1989 did not have the worst conference record but did have the worst overall record), 1993 (tied for dead last), 1994 (well, in overall record we did have a tie advantage over Arizona State), 2002, and 2006. There was always somebody worse in the Shaw years, though our 2022 team tied for last in conference record. Based on the number of seasons we've brought up the caboose pre-Harbaugh, we really can't rule it out. Like others, though, I bet somebody finds a way to be worse. As this poll predicts, Stanford at Colorado may decide it.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - gailtate - 07-21-2023
(07-21-2023, 12:50 PM)msqueri Wrote: Given our expected finish and this season being all about vibes (at least more so than wins) I haven't dug into other teams to have a particularly informed view of the other teams in the conference. It is a safe, conventional wisdom thing to pick Stanford last. Finishing last is so bad that it's probably a bad bet any given team will finish last last but somebody has to. Stanford is one of the more likely teams to finish last and I get why most are picking us to.
I'm pleasantly surprised the media is so bearish on Colorado. They have a ton of work to do and a ton of question marks and it's interesting that the Pac-12 media isn't buying what Coach Prime is selling except in the sense of leap frogging one team in the standings. I bet his health issues have something to do with it.
Pretty surprised to see Cal 9th. Not a lot separates them from the other cellar dwellers in my view. But, again, somebody has to be 9th/10th/11th/12th.
I don't know how many years Stanford has been preseason last place. I know that we've been real life end of season last place in 1959, 1960, 1963, 1966 (in conference record but not the worst overall record), 1983, 1988 (technically 1-5-2 in conference to Cal's 1-5-1 but a worse overall record so I'm comfortable calling that last....1989 did not have the worst conference record but did have the worst overall record), 1993 (tied for dead last), 1994 (well, in overall record we did have a tie advantage over Arizona State), 2002, and 2006. There was always somebody worse in the Shaw years, though our 2022 team tied for last in conference record. Based on the number of seasons we've brought up the caboose pre-Harbaugh, we really can't rule it out. Like others, though, I bet somebody finds a way to be worse. As this poll predicts, Stanford at Colorado may decide it.
Sure we're not overrated? All kidding aside, let's remember that Stanford takes field in 2023 with the team wrought by a stunningly, obliviously inattentive ex-coach. I take courage in that for the first time in recent memory, I look forward to the program's future. It's been a while.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - Farm93 - 07-21-2023
I understand 12th, but hope for something a bit better. For a while the team will have the advantage of not having tendencies for others to see on film or use to predict likely plays. I can see 4-8, I guess.
When the team is good the odd year schedule has given them a shot at winning the conference with the toughest programs at home and the struggling types on the road. However, when the team is not good the odd year schedule creates a different challenge with impossible home games and the weaker programs potentially winning thanks to home field advantages.
FWIW - The media picking USC to finish #1 is so predictable, and has proven to be the wrong pick quite a lot over the last few decades.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - ADPinWDC - 07-23-2023
(07-21-2023, 03:56 PM)Farm93 Wrote: I understand 12th, but hope for something a bit better. For a while the team will have the advantage of not having tendencies for others to see on film or use to predict likely plays. I can see 4-8, I guess.
When the team is good the odd year schedule has given them a shot at winning the conference with the toughest programs at home and the struggling types on the road. However, when the team is not good the odd year schedule creates a different challenge with impossible home games and the weaker programs potentially winning thanks to home field advantages.
FWIW - The media picking USC to finish #1 is so predictable, and has proven to be the wrong pick quite a lot over the last few decades.
Agree picking U$C at the top with H-man coming back at QB is utterly conventional.
BUT, I do not think the last half of the Trojan schedule is humanly possible to win six in a row, starting Oct. 14:
... They could face 4 or 5 ranked squads down the stretch.
@NDAM -- likely ranked. Probably decent weather; could rain. Irish a Home Dog? Ornery.
vs UTAH -- Yes, Utes are much tougher in SLC, but they are still the back-to-back champs. Will QB C.Rising be playing? UTAH D.
@CAL -- OK, Troy can handle this one... but beware kickoffs to Cal in that stadium.
vs WASH -- This could decide the Title... Trojans get Dawgs at home, but until Troy shows a Defense, I'll take Huskies with Penix.
@OREG -- Away to Eugene in Nov. sucks. Ducks will water down the field if it doesn't rain; this is biggest game on Oregon schedule, I submit.
Bo Nix came back; I think Ducks want it badder. Last time Trojans visited Eugene (2019), they got flattened: 56-24. 2nd half blowout.
vs UCLA -- Nov. 18. Anything can happen in this one; not really an away game for Bruins. Who is QB for UCLA by Nov.?
No BYES in between those games. Trojans could lose two and the Title among those six. Going 3-3 is possible; Tulane beat SC.
On the other hand, if they do go undefeated, then obviously PLAYOFFs. It's a helluva schedule. ESPN would drool for LA market.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - JohnR34231 - 07-24-2023
Yeah, 4-8 seems reasonable. We beat Hawaii, Sac State, and two of the three among Kal, Colorado, and Arizona.
Perhaps we lose one of those and beat somebody we aren't supposed to, like ND last year.
Is that being optimistic? Who knows? Hopefully one of the QB's will emerge to be effective.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - needle - 07-24-2023
(07-24-2023, 04:21 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote: Yeah, 4-8 seems reasonable. We beat Hawaii, Sac State, and two of the three among Kal, Colorado, and Arizona.
Perhaps we lose one of those and beat somebody we aren't supposed to, like ND last year.
Is that being optimistic? Who knows? Hopefully one of the QB's will emerge to be effective.
I'm not exactly picking Stanford to lose to Hawaii or Sac State, but whether or not that happens is going to be irrelevant to how I judge 2023 as a fan. Those two games are early in the season and have enough weird things about them (Hawaii will be playing its second game and Stanford is travelling very far; Sac State obviously is going to be tremendously motivated to beat their old coach) that there could very well be some flukey things that happen. As of July 24, Stanford is a 9.5 point favorite to beat Hawaii, fwiw.
Also, I will never forget that Alabama's coach Saban lost at home to Louisiana-Monroe in his first season. So, a first-year coach at any program going through a major rebuild can very much lose a game against lesser talent but still have things turn out OK in future years.
For Stanford, I want to see a.) at least one conference victory b.) a defense that is far from last in the Pac when it comes to stopping the run c.) pretty good QB play.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - Snorlax94 - 07-24-2023
6-6 and a Bowl Game.
The whys:
1) Sacramento State and Hawaii
2) 7 games at home
3) a TON of reps so if someone is injured, the backup is still a player with a lot of practice
4) new coach with buy-in from the players
5) new offensive systems have an advantage in conference play. All the Pac 12 coaches knew Shaw inside-out, it became easy to prepare for. Nobody has seen what Taylor can do with Division I talent.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - SamuelMcF - 07-24-2023
(07-24-2023, 09:06 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote: 6-6 and a Bowl Game.
The whys:
1) Sacramento State and Hawaii
2) 7 games at home
3) a TON of reps so if someone is injured, the backup is still a player with a lot of practice
4) new coach with buy-in from the players
5) new offensive systems have an advantage in conference play. All the Pac 12 coaches knew Shaw inside-out, it became easy to prepare for. Nobody has seen what Taylor can do with Division I talent.
Harbaugh's first season was 4-8 with a better initial situation than the one Taylor is inheriting.
Taylor going 6-6 would absolutely blow my mind.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - msqueri - 07-24-2023
I don't agree Harbaugh inherited a better situation than Taylor.
In the most literal sense, Harbaugh inherited a team that was 1-11, dead last in the conference, and Sagarin #104 whereas Taylor inherited a team that was 3-9, nowhere even close to the worst team in the conference (significantly better than Colorado last year), and Sagarin #87. At the very least we reached lower levels at the end of Harris than we had under Shaw.
In terms of player inheritance, Harbaugh inherited one player who had been all-conference as a non-specialist special teams player (Osaisai) compared to Taylor inheriting an all-conference tight end (Yurosek) and kicker (Karty); Harbaugh inherited 9 players who had been 4-star recruits (QB TC Ostrander, WR Mark Bradford, OL Allen Smith, OL Alex Fletcher, OL Matt Kopa, DL Erik Lorig, DL Ekom Udofia, OLB James McGillicuddy, ILB Will Powers) whereas Taylor inherited 14 players who had been 4-star recruits (RB EJ Smith, WR John Humphreys, OL Levi Rogers, OL Connor McLaughlin, OL Fisher Anderson, OL Lucas Heyer, TE Sam Roush, DL Aaron Armitage, LB Tristan Sinclair, OLB David Bailey, OLB Ernest Cooper, OLB Teva Tafiti, OLB Wilfredo Aybar, DB JShawn Frausto-Ramos); and Taylor certainly inherited more top 1000 recruits (very regrettable changes in the 247 database make this very difficult to check but when I last checked the 2004-2007 classes had 39 top 1000 recruits while the 2020-2023 classes had 59 top 1000 recruits).
Harbaugh also faced the #10 schedule in America in 2007. We'll have to see what Taylor faces but I'd be surprised if it's that high given that Taylor gets to face Hawaii, Sacramento State, Colorado, Cal, and Arizona State, gets to try to build momentum with a ludicrously easy first half of the schedule, gets a very favorable home/road split by getting three of most winnable games (Sacramento State, Arizona, and Cal) at home and a fourth (Colorado) after a bye when the opponent is situated for a classic trap game sandwiched in between road games against tougher foes, and gets to skip playing the two-time reigning conference champion entirely. Compare that to Harbaugh playing in a Pac-10 whose worst team was Sagarin #55.
I don't want to minimize the challenge Taylor faces, which is immense, but people keep unfavorably comparing it to what Harbaugh faced and that does a disservice to the enormity of Harbaugh's success. Our roster and culture were in a really bad shape in 2007 too, we were further removed from significant success, we were coming off a much worse season, and we were facing a much harder schedule. You can make a lot of excuses for Taylor but that he faces an easier situation than Harbaugh is not one of them.
I will be giddy if Taylor goes 6-6 (that would presumably really be 7-6 or 6-7) but it wouldn't quite blow my mind. The ability to effectuate a quick turnaround in Stanford's football culture, confidence, and resilience may be easier than it was for Harbaugh. We have more talent than we did back then and have an easier path to developing some momentum and confidence. That's not what I'm predicting, which is a 3-5 win season where one has to look at more granular and/or subjective things than wins for signs of improvement.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - Mick - 07-24-2023
(07-24-2023, 10:14 AM)msqueri Wrote: Harbaugh also faced the #10 schedule in America in 2007. We'll have to see what Taylor faces but I'd be surprised if it's that high given that Taylor gets to face Hawaii, Sacramento State, Colorado, Cal, and Arizona State, gets to try to build momentum with a ludicrously easy first half of the schedule, gets a very favorable home/road split by getting three of most winnable games (Sacramento State, Arizona, and Cal) at home and a fourth (Colorado) after a bye when the opponent is situated for a classic trap game sandwiched in between road games against tougher foes, and gets to skip playing the two-time reigning conference champion entirely. Compare that to Harbaugh playing in a Pac-10 whose worst team was Sagarin #55.
Sports Illustrated rated Pac-12 teams preseason 2023 Strength of Schedule by adding up the prior year's football records of their opponents. The SI projected strength of schedule is as follows:
#12 Cal
#15 Stanford
#20 Arizona State
#29 Colorado
#37 Utah
#54 Washington
#60 Arizona
#63 Oregon State
#71 UCLA
#96 Oregon
#97 USC
#113 Washington State
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - msqueri - 07-24-2023
Mick, that presumably significantly overrates Sacramento State and is less reliable than the computer rankings I'm referring to and, regardless, makes my case as #15 is not tougher than #10. Stanford's schedule may be tough this year due to the Pac-12 being good at the top (though the relevance of that for a team that would be expected to lose to those top teams whether they were top 10 or top 25 is debatable), but it's not a reason Taylor has it tougher than Harbaugh. Harbaugh had it super tough and we shouldn't forget it just because he succeeded.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - gailtate - 07-24-2023
SOS: #15 (Phil Steele, AP). EUTM in 2007: #10.
RE: Pac-12 pre-season poll - 2006alum - 07-24-2023
(07-24-2023, 10:14 AM)msqueri Wrote: I don't agree Harbaugh inherited a better situation than Taylor.
In the most literal sense, Harbaugh inherited a team that was 1-11, dead last in the conference, and Sagarin #104 whereas Taylor inherited a team that was 3-9, nowhere even close to the worst team in the conference (significantly better than Colorado last year), and Sagarin #87. At the very least we reached lower levels at the end of Harris than we had under Shaw.
In terms of player inheritance, Harbaugh inherited one player who had been all-conference as a non-specialist special teams player (Osaisai) compared to Taylor inheriting an all-conference tight end (Yurosek) and kicker (Karty); Harbaugh inherited 9 players who had been 4-star recruits (QB TC Ostrander, WR Mark Bradford, OL Allen Smith, OL Alex Fletcher, OL Matt Kopa, DL Erik Lorig, DL Ekom Udofia, OLB James McGillicuddy, ILB Will Powers) whereas Taylor inherited 14 players who had been 4-star recruits (RB EJ Smith, WR John Humphreys, OL Levi Rogers, OL Connor McLaughlin, OL Fisher Anderson, OL Lucas Heyer, TE Sam Roush, DL Aaron Armitage, LB Tristan Sinclair, OLB David Bailey, OLB Ernest Cooper, OLB Teva Tafiti, OLB Wilfredo Aybar, DB JShawn Frausto-Ramos); and Taylor certainly inherited more top 1000 recruits (very regrettable changes in the 247 database make this very difficult to check but when I last checked the 2004-2007 classes had 39 top 1000 recruits while the 2020-2023 classes had 59 top 1000 recruits).
Harbaugh also faced the #10 schedule in America in 2007. We'll have to see what Taylor faces but I'd be surprised if it's that high given that Taylor gets to face Hawaii, Sacramento State, Colorado, Cal, and Arizona State, gets to try to build momentum with a ludicrously easy first half of the schedule, gets a very favorable home/road split by getting three of most winnable games (Sacramento State, Arizona, and Cal) at home and a fourth (Colorado) after a bye when the opponent is situated for a classic trap game sandwiched in between road games against tougher foes, and gets to skip playing the two-time reigning conference champion entirely. Compare that to Harbaugh playing in a Pac-10 whose worst team was Sagarin #55.
I don't want to minimize the challenge Taylor faces, which is immense, but people keep unfavorably comparing it to what Harbaugh faced and that does a disservice to the enormity of Harbaugh's success. Our roster and culture were in a really bad shape in 2007 too, we were further removed from significant success, we were coming off a much worse season, and we were facing a much harder schedule. You can make a lot of excuses for Taylor but that he faces an easier situation than Harbaugh is not one of them.
I will be giddy if Taylor goes 6-6 (that would presumably really be 7-6 or 6-7) but it wouldn't quite blow my mind. The ability to effectuate a quick turnaround in Stanford's football culture, confidence, and resilience may be easier than it was for Harbaugh. We have more talent than we did back then and have an easier path to developing some momentum and confidence. That's not what I'm predicting, which is a 3-5 win season where one has to look at more granular and/or subjective things than wins for signs of improvement.
+1. The major difference is the wider environment they were/are operating in: the combo of the transfer portal + NIL/collectives puts Stanford in a much worse position for recruiting and (especially) retaining players, as everyone has noted by the abundance of outbound transfers of players with eligibility remaining. While Harbaugh inherited a program in worse shape, Taylor is going to be swimming upstream against much stronger currents.