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WBB: Stanford 58 USC 67 - 81alum - 01-29-2024

Preview: USC

USC comes to Maples Friday evening at 7pm in a game televised on Pac 12 Networks.  With all the drama over UCLA and the Sunday game (ESPN2), we need not to look past an extremely talented Trojan team that beat us a year ago.

USC is 14-4 overall.  But all 4 losses have been in conference, leaving USC at 4-4 and tied for 6th place after being swept by the mountain schools, splitting with UCLA, and losing to Washington last weekend. 

USC was ranked 11th before last weekend’s loss and just sank to 15th.  Their NET has dropped to 18, and Massey has them at 20.  Their best wins have been over Ohio State, Oregon State, and UCLA, and their worst loss by far was the recent loss to Washington which we know is a good team, having beaten us just last year.  USC thus seems inconsistent but capable of beating very good teams.

USC’s dominant player is freshman guard 6’2” freshman Juju Watkins.  She is every bit as agile and quick as shorter guards, and is too tall for the vast majority of them to defend.  Thus she creates a height mismatch on smaller guards and a quickness mismatch on forwards.  She is a little like Haley Jones if Jones could shoot the three at 35%.  As a result, this freshman is leading in many stat categories and is averaging 26 ppg.  That is an average, which means she has had some monster games much higher than that, including 4 that were above 30 points.  The worst games she has had all year were 15 points and 17 points—no one has really been able to stop her.

USC has two other players scoring in double digits, too.  The second leading scorer is Harvard transfer MacKenzie Forbes.  Forbes is 6’0” grad student forward/guard who shoots 38% of her treys but drives and slashes from all over the court.  She is a well rounded and versatile player averaging nearly 14ppg.  I'm very impressed with her play.  While an Ivy leaguer, being a four year starter has done a lot for her maturity and fluidity as a basketball player.  She drives and splits defenders quite well when she isn't bombing from the outside.

Brink and Iriafen are quite familiar with USC center 6’4” junior Rayah Marshall.  Marshall averages about 10 ppg and 10 rpg—a double double, and anchors the center of the USC offense and defense.  She is not just tall--she is strong and very physical and quite capable of pushing Brink around, as she did last year.  A lot may depend on how the game is called.  If it is Missy, expect a sumo match inside.

Kayla Padilla, a 5’9” grad student guard, has been their 4th starter.  She is USC’s second Ivy-League transfer, coming from Penn.  Padilla is hitting 46% of her threes, in quantity. 

Taylor Bigby, a 6’1” redshirt sophomore guard who transferred in a year ago from Oregon, has been the fifth starter.  Bigby shoots 40% of her threes.

Last year we split our two games with USC.  When we went to their place, we lost in an ugly defensive slugfest, Brink was 3/14, could barely get the ball inside, and jacked up 5 treys that all missed.  We lost that game 46-55. When we got them at Maples later we slugged out a defensive win 50-47 but Brink again was held in check, going 4/12 for 12 points.  Rayah Marshall is a very capable defender, and if we want to win we will need to keep both Brink and Iriafen in the game, since Marshall cannot defend them both simultaneously.  The rest of the USC team, however, has changed dramatially, with the departure of defensive star Destiny Littleton and the addition of the ivy leaguers and Watkins.  USC has a lot more offensive firepower than they did a year ago, and Gottlieb knows how to use Marshall to defend Brink.

Looking at this lineup, 4 of the 5 USC starters shoot the three quite well, which is a weapon USC traditionally had not had.  That makes it difficult to double Watkins, when everyone else is a capable scorer.

On paper, USC does not have as many assists as one might think it should  None of its players have a particularly good assist/turnover ratio, and Watkins is actually underwater.  I presume this is because they do not need a lot of assists when Watkins can just manufacture her own shots seemingly at will. 

USC, frankly, looks like it should be more formidable than UCLA.  They did beat us a year ago.  And yet they lost their last game—at home.  Washington’s defense held Watkins to 19 points and Padilla to 20—on 6/9 three point shooting.  No one else made it to double digits, and Washington shot 46% to USC’s 37%.  So Washington won with defense, primarily.  They also out rebounded them 39 to 24.  That sounds like it should be our formula, too.

The real question is, who and how do we defend Watkins, and can we do it without leaving the other 4 open?  I wonder if Agara might be an important factor on defense.  She may have the height and agility to help control USC's freshman phenom.  If so, we may see Nunu on Juju.

RE: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - Spiny_Norman - 01-29-2024

Juju has lost some of her early season mojo. Since conference games started with better defenses than she faced in the preseason, her shooting has fallen off. She is shooting 10 for 48 or 21% from 3 in conference games.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - SkiBum80 - 01-29-2024

(01-29-2024, 09:08 AM)81alum Wrote:  ...The real question is, who and how do we defend Watkins, and can we do it without leaving the other 4 open?  I wonder if Agara might be an important factor on defense.  She may have the height and agility to help control USC's freshman phenom.  If so, we may see Nunu on Juju.

This will be fascinating decision to see. 
I'm speculating Bosgana? or maybe Harriel who gives up size but is quick? or maybe even Ogden?
Glad it's Coach's decision not mine!

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - CompSci87 - 01-29-2024

Quote: we may see Nunu on Juju
 

Quote: Juju has lost some of her early season mojo
 

We had better guard Juju well, or we'll be in deep doodoo.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - 81alum - 02-01-2024

I've been reading the USC WBB boards, and if there is a consensus, it is that Gottlieb features Juju Watkins too much--that other teams just key on her and she rarely passes the ball.  This has knocked other talented players out of their offensive mindsets.

After losing 3 of their last 4, however, USC is ready to make some changes.  It probably would have been better to catch them when they were a teensy bit complacent, but that will now not be the case.  Very hard to know which USC we will see tomorrow.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - BobK - 02-01-2024

https://fb.watch/pYawtdCHV2/?mibextid=roAVj8&fs=e&s=TIeQ9V

Brink interview. Hmm on next year. Up in the air

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - M T - 02-02-2024

%$%@&*&#$* PAC-12.com

PAC-12.com's TV schedule for 6 hours from now shows a half-hour slot for USC at Stanford WBB tonight.
So, if your carrier's schedule (such as Sling) shows a half-hour, you may not get even the first half.

(ESPN2's schedule has a 2 hour slot for Sunday's game)

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - qwerty49 - 02-02-2024

(02-02-2024, 01:36 PM)M T Wrote:  %$%@&*&#$* PAC-12.com

PAC-12.com's TV schedule for 6 hours from now shows a half-hour slot for USC at Stanford WBB tonight.
So, if your carrier's schedule (such as Sling) shows a half-hour, you may not get even the first half.

(ESPN2's schedule has a 2 hour slot for Sunday's game)

Only a couple of more months of this crap.  Hopefully ACC Network is more together.

I'll just set my Sling DVR to record the 2 hour time slot regardless of whatever they show on the grid.  Fingers crossed.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - WBB fan - 02-02-2024

(02-02-2024, 01:52 PM)qwerty49 Wrote:  
(02-02-2024, 01:36 PM)M T Wrote:  %$%@&*&#$* PAC-12.com

PAC-12.com's TV schedule for 6 hours from now shows a half-hour slot for USC at Stanford WBB tonight.
So, if your carrier's schedule (such as Sling) shows a half-hour, you may not get even the first half.

(ESPN2's schedule has a 2 hour slot for Sunday's game)



Only a couple of more months of this crap.  Hopefully ACC Network is more together.

I'll just set my Sling DVR to record the 2 hour time slot regardless of whatever they show on the grid.  Fingers crossed.

Xfinity/comcast shows the game on Pac12 net as 7-9, so at least they seem to have gotten it right. I've set the recording with an extra hour, just in case.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - BillBradley - 02-02-2024

FanDuel has Stanford as a whopping 11.5 point favorite in tonight's game. The over/under is 135. That pegs the predicted score as Stanford 78 USC 67.  I like it, although feels a little high?  

Also UCLA is favored by 11.5 over Cal.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - 81alum - 02-02-2024

(02-02-2024, 05:36 PM)BillBradley Wrote:  FanDuel has Stanford as a whopping 11.5 point favorite in tonight's game. The over/under is 135. That pegs the predicted score as Stanford 78 USC 67.  I like it, although feels a little high?  

Also UCLA is favored by 11.5 over Cal.
Massey gives us an 86% chance with the score 73-59.  I would love that, but will believe it when I see it.  We have never matched up against either of USC's best two players before, and so there are just a lot of imponderables.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - BobK - 02-02-2024

As a Frosh Forbes played at cal

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - BACardinal - 02-02-2024

(02-01-2024, 08:51 PM)81alum Wrote:  I've been reading the USC WBB boards, and if there is a consensus, it is that Gottlieb features Juju Watkins too much--that other teams just key on her and she rarely passes the ball.  This has knocked other talented players out of their offensive mindsets.

Gottlieb did the same with Anigwe at Cal. Lob the ball over and over to the post and eventually teams camped out in the paint and dared guards to shoot and miss.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC Friday 7pm - martyup - 02-02-2024

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I hope we see Harriel get lots of minutes tonight.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - martyup - 02-02-2024

We are tied at 21.  Watkins has 19 of USC's 21 points.  Ridiculous.  Kiki 0.  Cam 3.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - M T - 02-02-2024

2 USC timeouts in 1.5 quarters

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - martyup - 02-02-2024

Cam looks tired already.
Marshall with 3 fouls in the first half. 

Keep fighting Stanford!

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - Spiny_Norman - 02-02-2024

Why is 5'7" Lepolo guarding 6'2" Watkins?

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - old spanish trail - 02-02-2024

(02-02-2024, 08:34 PM)martyup Wrote:  We are tied at 21.  Watkins has 19 of USC's 21 points.  Ridiculous.  Kiki 0.  Cam 3.

Watkins is really good. Cam is short on all her shots. Bosgana best game in a while. Jump has her shot so far. Refs aren't letting anybody flop.

RE: WBB: Stanford vs. USC (Now on Pac-12 Network)) - M T - 02-02-2024

2 USC timeouts in 1.5 quarters
At half, 2 with 3 fouls