Top Stanford players - 2024 - Printable Version
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Top Stanford players - 2024 (/thread-25048.html)
+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Top Stanford players - 2024 (/thread-25048.html)
Pages:
1
2
Top Stanford players - 2024 - msqueri - 08-25-2024
Time for one of my favorite posts of the year, giving a preseason prediction of our top players. This was a fun exercise for me in 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020 and 2019. The basic rule of it is I'm trying to predict the top 35 players by snap count at the end of the season and rank them in terms of quality (best understood in terms of things like quality in relation to ACC peers, which can be approximated by year-end PFF grades). Specialists are not ranked here. The top 35 in snaps is essentially synonymous with the non-specialists who matter in a season, those with approximately 200 snaps over the course of a 12 game season give or take a dozen snaps or so.
You can see in the earlier threads that I did quite well at this the first two years before whiffing in 2021, doing a nice job in 2022 overall but struggling predicting who would be best, and then doing even better last year getting five of the top ten right (better than the four of the top ten the previous two years) and 28 of the top 35 (same as in 2021 and 2022, one shy of 2023). Let's see how I can do this year:
1. Elic Ayomanor
2. Collin Wright
3. Ashton Daniels
4. David Bailey
5. Scotty Edwards
6. Levi Rogers
7. Anthony Franklin
8. Elijah Brown
9. Micah Ford
10. Connor McLaughlin
11. Chris Davis Jr.
12. Wilfredo Aybar
13. Emmett Mosley V
14. Tobin Phillips
15. Zahran Manley
16. Tiger Bachmeier
17. Che Ojarikre
18. Jackson Harris
19. Sam Roush
20. Teva Tafiti
21. Jack Leyrer
22. Clay Patterson
23. Mitch Leigber
24. Gaethan Bernadel
25. Simione Pale
26. Tristan Sinclair
27. Brandon Nicholson
28. Zach Rowell
29. Luke Baklenko
30. Jake Maikkula
31. Fisher Anderson
32. Jay Green
33. Omari Porter
34. Benji Blackburn
35. Aaron Morris
Apologies to Ryan Butler, Justin Lamson, Zach Buckey, Braden Marceau-Olayinka, Bryce Farrell, Matt Rose, Zach Buckey, Jahsiah Galvan, Sedrick Irvin, Cole Tabb, Mudia Reuben, and others. Butler, Lamson, and Farrell were tough omissions for me as I think they are more likely to be top 35 in snaps than at least one or two guys I included, but this exercise is truly meant to be a prediction and as such I insist on trying to be realistic. While those guys have very good shots at 200+ snaps, it is almost certainly not happening that we'll have four key contributing RBs or three key contributing QBs and I do think Harris has definitively passed Farrell, so I made judgment calls on what I think will happen. As always, obviously many such subjective judgment calls in here and I look forward to hearing folks' thoughts.
P.S. For the longest time I had an audacious pick in here of Javion Randall bucking expectations (which for outsiders couldn't be lower considering he's one of our lowliest regarded recruits ever) and becoming a key contributor in his first year. Just have hunch on that. But I'm a coward and swapped him out for Morris at the last minute. Don't feel great about that but at some point I have to stop tinkering and submit my bid for the year.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - Spiny_Norman - 08-25-2024
Msqueri, I admire your willingness to take on this task especially doing so before the first depth chart is posted. Have you been able to see anyone play during fall practice? Or is your assessment of the frosh based on what you saw from high school film and results?
I am curious at the omission of JFR. Don't you think he will get enough plays to qualify for the list?
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - needle - 08-26-2024
Big screaming headline from this list is the prediction of Elijah Brown playing, possibly a lot (and looking good, relatively, of course). We shall see. I would not be surprised to see him against TCU.
Don't get the love for Collin Wright, and it's purely wishful thinking at this stage to place a frosh RB in the top ten. My hope is that the Clay Patterson hype from the coaches has some real substance behind it, and he ends up a top 10 player.
Enjoyed the list overall.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - msqueri - 08-26-2024
(08-25-2024, 09:41 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Msqueri, I admire your willingness to take on this task especially doing so before the first depth chart is posted. Have you been able to see anyone play during fall practice? Or is your assessment of the frosh based on what you saw from high school film and results?
I am curious at the omission of JFR. Don't you think he will get enough plays to qualify for the list?
I have not been to a practice. My assessment is as all-source as I can muster, based on past performance (always the most important indicator), reports on what's been happening at practice (one of the premium sites reports fairly well on the depth chart), public indications/interviews (there have been something like 30 interviews I have studied, which don't tend to reveal much but I look for clues), and other impressions (such as the high school film and results you mention). Again, past performance is always the best indicator. I have done quite a bit of study over the years to get a sense of what past performance tends to translate to at each position, as it does differ (e.g., the extent of linear improvement, what constitutes good performance at a given age, how to make sense of given positions, etc.).
My impression is that JFR has been over-recruited and will have a less significant role this year than last year. He is in a similar boat to Mayberry in terms of being bad last year, apparently changing positions (though the inexcusable fact we don't update our official roster anymore obfuscates this), explicitly being viewed as a versatile option for multiple (but it seems in an emergency/not trusted/break glass kind of way), and having numerous teammates who are getting more buzz and being reported on as playing before him. I am confident he is not going into the season anywhere near the key starting group but also have doubts he will fend off guys like Ojarikre, Davis, and Sumlin at safety. In short, one of the judgment calls I made in this exercise is that like Mayberry JFR is receding.
(08-26-2024, 02:39 AM)needle Wrote: Big screaming headline from this list is the prediction of Elijah Brown playing, possibly a lot (and looking good, relatively, of course). We shall see. I would not be surprised to see him against TCU.
Don't get the love for Collin Wright, and it's purely wishful thinking at this stage to place a frosh RB in the top ten. My hope is that the Clay Patterson hype from the coaches has some real substance behind it, and he ends up a top 10 player.
Enjoyed the list overall.
Taylor has been a heavy exponent of using two QBs in recent years and this particular competition, with still no starter named among Daniels, Lamson, and Brown and Taylor having been pretty assiduous in talking about them as all having significantly improved (and otherwise posturing similar to last year), suggests we will likely see that again. Lamson's proven use as a running option, coupled with Taylor's track record in integrating that kind of wrinkle, creates pretty significant likelihood we see a big role for Lamson again. However, Taylor talks about Brown in a different way than he does the others and gives me the impression Taylor's mind's eye on the QB1 that will lead Stanford football to a turnaround is Brown. I think there is a fairly good likelihood Brown gets worked in. Ultimately, I thought the best prediction was that we'd have two 200+ snap QBs and I kind of agonized over which two to pick as there are myriad ways this could unfold and one could envision just about any permutation of these three. My notional forecast is something like Daniels playing very competently but the team struggling and Taylor using a 1-5 or 2-4 start as the opportunity to turn over the starting reins to Brown. But there are injury scenarios and others. As far as having both QBs pretty high, this is a predictive exercise that takes into account how QBs tend to grade and, frankly, how bad the rest of our team is. Last year Lamson ended up grading #6 (really quite effective in his running role, and grades are rate things) and Daniels was #8. I pretty much nailed the QB comparison last year and used similar process/logic this year, but thinking Brown (and not Lamson) would play significantly is a judgment call that I very easily could see going the other way.
I think you are wrong about Wright. He was #2 last year and there is no reason to think he has taken a step back. He needs to do a better job getting his head around and playing balls (almost as many tackles for loss as passes defended last year) but he is clearly one of our top few best players.
Don't think it's too wishful to think a true freshman RB will be one of our top 10 players. It's a tough call on which RB will be our highest graded as things are pretty wide open, but Taylor's enthusiasm in and commitment to the freshmen RBs was the single most obvious theme of camp. For what it's worth, the #9 player on our team last year had a 64.4 grade. 200+ snap RBs in the ACC almost always grade that well.
I don't see the coaches hyping Patterson as much as enthusiastically answering questions directly about him, as they do with all players. I don't have a sense he is ahead of Franklin and Phillips per se, and the translation of Ivy League to ACC would make it extremely unlikely Patterson is one of our best players. I do have hopes for him though.
Thanks for engaging on this!
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - Jskass - 08-26-2024
given the title, my vote was for Cam Brink followed by Kiki Iriafen.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - 82lsju - 08-26-2024
(08-25-2024, 06:53 PM)msqueri Wrote: 3. Ashton Daniels
8. Elijah Brown
so are you thinking there is a mid-season change in starting QB or QB be "by committee" all year?
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - msqueri - 08-26-2024
(08-26-2024, 11:50 AM)82lsju Wrote:(08-25-2024, 06:53 PM)msqueri Wrote: 3. Ashton Daniels
8. Elijah Brown
so are you thinking there is a mid-season change in starting QB or QB be "by committee" all year?
I view both as distinctly possible. Injury another possibility. The main scenario I had in mind is that Taylor plays multiple QBs from the start - likely Daniels and Lamson but any combo of the three top guys is plausible - and we start off with a poor record (1-5 or 2-4) that provides impetus to more decisively see what the freshman can do. Lots of ways it could play out though. I have more confidence we will see multiple QBs than I do what/when will happen.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - 82lsju - 08-26-2024
(08-26-2024, 12:49 PM)msqueri Wrote:(08-26-2024, 11:50 AM)82lsju Wrote:(08-25-2024, 06:53 PM)msqueri Wrote: 3. Ashton Daniels
8. Elijah Brown
so are you thinking there is a mid-season change in starting QB or QB be "by committee" all year?
I view both as distinctly possible. Injury another possibility. The main scenario I had in mind is that Taylor plays multiple QBs from the start - likely Daniels and Lamson but any combo of the three top guys is plausible - and we start off with a poor record (1-5 or 2-4) that provides impetus to more decisively see what the freshman can do. Lots of ways it could play out though. I have more confidence we will see multiple QBs than I do what/when will happen.
I'm in the camp of if we don't have a "QB controversy" by week four we are likely in for a very long season....
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - terry - 08-26-2024
Depth chart --
https://storage.googleapis.com/stanford-prod/2024/08/26/oEKbK0s08rz4NHeQDu2i39bf82DEigKU9s3YgDxw.pdf
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - old spanish trail - 08-26-2024
(08-26-2024, 01:39 PM)terry Wrote: Depth chart --
https://storage.googleapis.com/stanford-prod/2024/08/26/oEKbK0s08rz4NHeQDu2i39bf82DEigKU9s3YgDxw.pdf
Wow, Square was right about Fausto Ramos. He's apparently behind Porter who didn't see the field a whole lot last year at safety. Also interesting that our big transfer on the DL, Patterson, is behind someone we've never heard of. ILB still looking very iffy. Not surprised to see Irvin sharing the rb spot. I thought he was pretty good last year but didn't have many chances to show out. Don't recall if he was injured.
Ps: Needle, Colin Wright is very good.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - needle - 08-26-2024
(08-26-2024, 01:39 PM)terry Wrote: Depth chart --
https://storage.googleapis.com/stanford-prod/2024/08/26/oEKbK0s08rz4NHeQDu2i39bf82DEigKU9s3YgDxw.pdf
No starting nickel listed, unlike depth charts last year. That probably means something, but I have no idea what.
Elijah Brown is going to play Friday, I strongly suspect.
Looks like Flintoft has decisively won any punting "battle" over Weselman, much to the relief of Stanford fans everywhere.
Overall, while there are lots of new names on offense, the depth chart for the defense looks very, very similar to the end of last year. I *don't* think that's an especially good sign, but it isn't all that surprising, either.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - murky - 08-26-2024
The cornerbacks have good height.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - 82lsju - 08-26-2024
(08-26-2024, 02:39 PM)needle Wrote:(08-26-2024, 01:39 PM)terry Wrote: Depth chart --
https://storage.googleapis.com/stanford-prod/2024/08/26/oEKbK0s08rz4NHeQDu2i39bf82DEigKU9s3YgDxw.pdf
No starting nickel listed, unlike depth charts last year. That probably means something, but I have no idea what.
Elijah Brown is going to play Friday, I strongly suspect.
Looks like Flintoft has decisively won any punting "battle" over Weselman, much to the relief of Stanford fans everywhere.
Overall, while there are lots of new names on offense, the depth chart for the defense looks very, very similar to the end of last year. I *don't* think that's an especially good sign, but it isn't all that surprising, either.
I would expect all three QBs and all four RBs to play on Friday....
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - needle - 08-28-2024
FWIW, the transfers away from Stanford mostly seem in line for lots of playing time.
Gilman is set to start for Utah at safety. Moi is listed as a co-starter at DT on Temnesse’s depth chart. EJ Smith is among a couple of players listed as second-string RBs at Texas A&M.
Also of note, Patu started last week at QB for North Alabama.
While I am actually optimistic about the new talent on offense, it is possible that Stanford’s 2024 defense is less talented than last year’s version. Are BMO/Patterson better than Moi? Leigber, who started after Gilman’s mid-season’s injury, would have to show some major improvement for me to say he’s better than Gilman.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - SamuelMcF - 08-28-2024
(08-28-2024, 09:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, the transfers away from Stanford mostly seem in line for lots of playing time.
Gilman is set to start for Utah at safety. Moi is listed as a co-starter at DT on Temnesse’s depth chart. EJ Smith is among a couple of players listed as second-string RBs at Texas A&M.
Also of note, Patu started last week at QB for North Alabama.
Aaron Armitage - not on Utah State's depth chart
Jimmy Wyrick - backup safety at UTSA
Lance Keneley - not on Arizona's depth chart
James Pogorelc - 3rd-string OT at Duke
Terian Williams - Bucknell doesn't even do depth charts, nor do we care
Benjamin Hudson - didn't even find a new team
Smith is only co-RB2 now because A&M's RB1 is out for the season. Patu's first start was...uh...bad. Interested to see how much Moi plays, as I thought Tennessee planned to use his shirt.
Yes, Gilman and Moi (and Yurosek, but both him and Gilman were always going to leave) were the most key transfers out...Moi the only real significant surprise. Wyrick a bit too but I'm not sure how bullish this staff was on him and he was always hurt.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - CardinalSagehen - 08-28-2024
(08-28-2024, 11:26 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(08-28-2024, 09:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, the transfers away from Stanford mostly seem in line for lots of playing time.
Gilman is set to start for Utah at safety. Moi is listed as a co-starter at DT on Temnesse’s depth chart. EJ Smith is among a couple of players listed as second-string RBs at Texas A&M.
Also of note, Patu started last week at QB for North Alabama.
Aaron Armitage - not on Utah State's depth chart
Jimmy Wyrick - backup safety at UTSA
Lance Keneley - not on Arizona's depth chart
James Pogorelc - 3rd-string OT at Duke
Terian Williams - Bucknell doesn't even do depth charts, nor do we care
Benjamin Hudson - didn't even find a new team
Smith is only co-RB2 now because A&M's RB1 is out for the season. Patu's first start was...uh...bad. Interested to see how much Moi plays, as I thought Tennessee planned to use his shirt.
Yes, Gilman and Moi (and Yurosek, but both him and Gilman were always going to leave) were the most key transfers out...Moi the only real significant surprise. Wyrick a bit too but I'm not sure how bullish this staff was on him and he was always hurt.
The bright side of being 3-9 is that you don't really have to worry too much about who you're going to lose in the offseason to the portal and the NFL.
Moi could end up being the biggest loss (so to speak) because he is a 305-pound body with 2-3 years left. He has apparently exceeded all expectations at Tennessee, and he's receiving a much bigger role this year than they had originally planned for him. But again, our problems extend well beyond any one guy that had ~15 tackles last year.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - SkiBum80 - 08-28-2024
(08-28-2024, 01:51 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:Another big loss is what Yurosek could have been if not hurt. But then again, we already experienced that loss last year.(08-28-2024, 11:26 AM)SamuelMcF Wrote:(08-28-2024, 09:56 AM)needle Wrote: FWIW, the transfers away from Stanford mostly seem in line for lots of playing time.
Gilman is set to start for Utah at safety. Moi is listed as a co-starter at DT on Temnesse’s depth chart. EJ Smith is among a couple of players listed as second-string RBs at Texas A&M.
Also of note, Patu started last week at QB for North Alabama.
Aaron Armitage - not on Utah State's depth chart
Jimmy Wyrick - backup safety at UTSA
Lance Keneley - not on Arizona's depth chart
James Pogorelc - 3rd-string OT at Duke
Terian Williams - Bucknell doesn't even do depth charts, nor do we care
Benjamin Hudson - didn't even find a new team
Smith is only co-RB2 now because A&M's RB1 is out for the season. Patu's first start was...uh...bad. Interested to see how much Moi plays, as I thought Tennessee planned to use his shirt.
Yes, Gilman and Moi (and Yurosek, but both him and Gilman were always going to leave) were the most key transfers out...Moi the only real significant surprise. Wyrick a bit too but I'm not sure how bullish this staff was on him and he was always hurt.
The bright side of being 3-9 is that you don't really have to worry too much about who you're going to lose in the offseason to the portal and the NFL.
Moi could end up being the biggest loss (so to speak) because he is a 305-pound body with 2-3 years left. He has apparently exceeded all expectations at Tennessee, and he's receiving a much bigger role this year than they had originally planned for him. But again, our problems extend well beyond any one guy that had ~15 tackles last year.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - old spanish trail - 08-28-2024
Glad to see Tank Williams added to the staff. He joined the Card as a secondary QB from somewhere in the South, quickly established himself as a dominant force in the secondary, and graduated to a nice NFL career. He's done some occasional media stuff, and now looks like he wants to try coaching. He's always loved Stanford. Very good guy.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - needle - 10-05-2024
Msqueri's list is looking solid! Only miss in the top 10 for sure (still not halfway through the season) is McLaughlin, but I'm ready to (prematurely) swap in the frosh tackle Khalil House.
How the transfers are doing through Oct. 4 (Week Five):
Gilman at Utah:
12 solo tackles, 5 assists, 1 interception
Put up stats in five games, including 8 solo tackles in most recent contest
Jaxson Moi at Tennessee
2 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 sack
Stats in only two games
EJ Smith at Texas A&M
15 carries for 54 yards; 0 receptions
Stats in four games
Ari Patu at (FCS) North Alabama
48-86, 535 yards, 1 TD and 5 INTs
Stats in three games (looks like he was hurt Sept. 7)
Lance Keneley at Arizona
1 tackle, 2 assists
Stats in 1 game
Jimmy Wyrick at UT-San Antonio
7 tackles, 3 assists, 1 forced fumble
Stats in four games
I think Gilman would have helped this Stanford team but it seems unlikely that the others would have made much of a difference had they stuck around.
RE: Top Stanford players - 2024 - SamuelMcF - 10-05-2024
I do genuinely feel bad for Ben Yurosek, who has likely transferred his way out of a shot at the NFL.