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MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - Printable Version

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MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - VB Card - 12-02-2024

Stanford takes on Utah Valley for the first time ever on Tuesday night at 7 PM PT on ESPN+/ACCNX. Both teams are coming off of 2 consecutive losses - Stanford (KenPom #91) sits at 6-2 and Utah Valley (KenPom #187) at 4-3. 

Starting with the Card, Coach Smith will surely have placed an emphasis on the defensive end in the last couple of practices after giving up 90 points to Cal Poly. That was the first game of the season in which Maxime Raynaud did not finish with a double-double, and Stanford struggled getting him the ball throughout. I'm interested to see what changes Smith makes. 

Utah Valley is coached by Todd Phillips, who is in his second year in charge. He was previously on Mark Madsen's staff at UVU and got the head job when Madsen left for Cal. UVU finished 16-16 last year. So far, they have wins over Western Colorado, UTEP, Murray State (top 100 in KenPom), and West Georgia. Losses to North Dakota, Samford, and North Dakota State. 

The Wolverines are led in scoring by sophomore UC Irvine transfer Carter Welling at 14.8 ppg. The 6'10 big man is a threat from beyond the 3-point line as well. His older brother Hayden - also a UCI transfer - is one of the first off the bench for them but is in the top-5 scoring wise. Redshirt sophomore guard Tanner Toolson (10.9 ppg), junior guard Dominick Nelson (13.3 ppg), redshirt sophomore guard Trevan Leonhardt (7.9 ppg), and junior forward Ethan Potter (9.9 ppg) round out their starting lineup. Former Stanford guard Noah Taitz plays spot minutes off the bench for UVU - he's now at his third school (Stanford>Loyola Marymount>Utah Valley). 

UVU only has 2 players 6'9 or taller, so hopefully Maxime will be able to get it going early and often Tuesday night. The Wolverines are no slouch opponent (KenPom only predicts a 10-point win for Stanford), but the Cardinal will need to show they've made big strides since their previous 2 games. The ACC opener looms on Saturday in Berkeley.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - skip75 - 12-03-2024

Thanks for the preview VB.  I wasn't overly disappointed by the loss to GCU (I would bet on them being an NCAA tourney team and would not be surprised if they get another 1st round win), but the loss to Cal Poly was really deflating.

I considered staying home to watch the Warriors & Nuggets tonight, but decided to be among the (likely) few who will make it to Maples tonight.

Before the Cal Poly loss, I was allowing myself to get optimistic for a better season than the last 3 or 4 - not exactly a high bar.  I was even ready to say that those willing to settle for a 15-15 season were too pessimistic.  But the Cal Poly game was jarring in many ways.  So I'll save my thoughts about the ACC portion of the schedule for later - or maybe throw in the towel if Stanford can't come back with a win tonight.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - needle - 12-03-2024

(12-03-2024, 05:00 PM)skip75 Wrote:  Thanks for the preview VB.  I wasn't overly disappointed by the loss to GCU (I would bet on them being an NCAA tourney team and would not be surprised if they get another 1st round win), but the loss to Cal Poly was really deflating.

I considered staying home to watch the Warriors & Nuggets tonight, but decided to be among the (likely) few who will make it to Maples tonight.

Before the Cal Poly loss, I was allowing myself to get optimistic for a better season than the last 3 or 4 - not exactly a high bar.  I was even ready to say that those willing to settle for a 15-15 season were too pessimistic.  But the Cal Poly game was jarring in many ways.  So I'll save my thoughts about the ACC portion of the schedule for later - or maybe throw in the towel if Stanford can't come back with a win tonight.

It's early in the season, but Stanford is top 20 in rankings of teams with the fewest turnovers. Quite a change compared to last year, when Stanford ranked No. 281. I view this has a very positive reflection of the coaching job by KS, no matter the record this year. 

I don't believe any of Stanford's losses so far will turn out to be "good losses," but I do think a player like Okpara can play better than he has, and it's way to early to say with a young guy like Batson. Stanford has not shown anything suggesting it can finish close to .500 in ACC play, imo, but there is still time for a fourth or fifth guy to emerge as a much needed consistent force. There are still reasons to watch, even if the team goes down tonight.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - BobK - 12-03-2024

Like Cal Poly did Utah Valley is taking it inside and scoring
Stanford up 28-26 4 minutes left in the half


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - BostonCard - 12-03-2024

So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - skip75 - 12-03-2024

After a slow start, Stanford leads 38-26 at the half. Raynaud, Blakes, and Sellers leading the way again.

Evan Stinson made his debut, coming off a foot injury.  He provided a spark, hitting a quick 3 and getting a rebound, but followed that up with some typical freshman mistakes.  Hopefully he can settle in and provide some much-needed depth.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - BobK - 12-03-2024

Stanford up now 51-39


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - BostonCard - 12-03-2024

(12-03-2024, 08:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC

And that’s how it ended.  Aside from the big time upset of Kentucky, the ACC went 1-9 against the SEC.  I thought we were supposed to be a basketball conference.

BC


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - Sam Leopold - 12-03-2024

Good get-right win, against a game Utah Valley team that found a couple places to challenge the outcome.  Maxime Raynaud and Jaylen Blakes are demon dogs, and this time they got plenty of legitimate support.

Next up, on the road to Cal, who had a 16-point halftime lead at Missouri tonight before they . . . . wait for it . . . . gave up 63 points in the second half.  (Write for California, the Golden Bear blog, is saying that they got hosed by the refs.  So what else is new.)


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - skip75 - 12-04-2024

(12-03-2024, 10:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(12-03-2024, 08:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC

And that’s how it ended.  Aside from the big time upset of Kentucky, the ACC went 1-9 against the SEC.  I thought we were supposed to be a basketball conference.

BC
Not all that surprising.  Can't find the point spreads anymore now that the games are over, but I think the SEC teams were favored in just about every game - I think Louisville was a slight favorite.  We might think of the ACC as a basketball conference, but whether you put any stock in Massey, KenPom, ESPN BPI, or the good old AP poll, pretty much across the board, the ACC doesn't seem to have any high end teams beyond Duke, UNC, Pitt, & Clemson.  Just looking at KenPom, the SEC has 13 of the top 50 teams, while the ACC has 4.  Big 12 has 8, Big 10 has 13.

That's one reason why I've been more optimistic than some others about the prospects for Stanford's season.  If Stanford can come out of the Dead Week/Finals break with a win vs. Merrimack, they can finish 8-3 in non-league games even with a loss to Oregon.  So an 8-12 league record would put them at 16-15 - a winning record "as good"(?) as any of the past 4 seasons.  Breaking even in ACC games would raise it to 18-13, which I think would make most of us ecstatic.

Looking at their ACC schedule, let's figure they go 0-4 vs. that top ACC tier (Duke, UNC, Pitt & Clemson - all on the road).  Using the ratings above as a guide, it looks like a bottom tier might include Georgia Tech (road game), BC (home), VaTech (home) & Cal (2 games). Optimistically, maybe we go 4-1 in those, including a split with the Weenies.  A second tier could include Louisville (road), SMU (2 games), FSU (home), & NC St (home).  Maybe Stanford gets 1 or 2 wins out of those 3 home games, so 1-4 or 2-3.  Then the 3rd tier would include Wake (2 games), ND (road), Syracuse (home), UVa (home), Miami (home), & Stanford.  Let's figure Stanford goes 4-2, winning at home & losing on the road.  That "cardinal-colored glasses" view gets the ACC record to 9-11 or 10-10.

I'm not predicting any of this - still too early based on the easy schedule so far.  But I look at it as a roadmap to how we are progressing on getting past that .500 barrier.  In the near term, I would hope for, a competitive game at Cal (possible win?), a win vs Merrimack, and a competitive game vs Oregon (too much to ask?).  Further out, the New Year starts with a tough road trip to Clemson & Pitt.  So even in my optimistic scenario, we start out 0-3 in the ACC.

My hope is that Stanford can step up in competitiveness & especially consistency through these next 5 games and be ready go toe-to-toe with at least half of the ACC opponents by the time of the first ACC home game - Jan 8 vs Va Tech.  If I'm reading the ACC post-season tourney schedule correctly, 15 teams (out of 18) qualify, #5-9 get byes to the 2nd round, and #1-4 get byes to the quarterfinals.  Stanford would exceed the media preseason poll by just qualifying (they were tabbed for 17th, ahead of only BC).  So maybe a worthy goal is getting to the 2nd round, either by finishing in the top 9 or by winning a first round game.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - Hurlburt88 - 12-04-2024

I liked a few different names showing life on the stat sheet, and I REALLY liked the Okpara chase-down block!


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - SkiBum80 - 12-04-2024

(12-04-2024, 07:11 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  I liked a few different names showing life on the stat sheet, and I REALLY liked the Okpara chase-down block!

Agree
Stinson a few good looks.
And Okpara finally looked more what I was hoping for before season started.


RE: MBB: Stanford vs. Utah Valley - Tuesday, 7 PM PT - Sam Leopold - 12-04-2024

(12-03-2024, 10:04 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(12-03-2024, 08:42 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  So far the SEC/ACC challenge is not going well for our new conference; the SEC went 5-0 in the first set of games and is leading in all but the Kentucky Clemson game.

So far #3 Tennessee crushed Syracuse, South Carolina handily beat BC, Missouri beat Cal, Georgia beat Notre Dame and Arkansas beat Miami, LSU is up on Florida State, Ole Miss is beating Louisville, Texas A&M is up on Wake Forest, and Oklahoma is beating Georgia Tech. Clemson up on #4 Kentucky is the only game that the ACC is leading.  Not good for our RPI.

BC

And that’s how it ended.  Aside from the big time upset of Kentucky, the ACC went 1-9 against the SEC.  I thought we were supposed to be a basketball conference.

BC

Tonight was the challenge conclusion.  Only Dook won, the other five ACC teams lost.  ACC goes 2-14 against the SEC.

Whatever frailty the Pac-12 had as a men's basketball conference, we seem to have infected the ACC with it in the course of our move.