Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - Printable Version
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Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - msqueri - 10-19-2025
1. A homecoming win! The Reich era will be remembered for letting the home fans go home happy. After it took Stanford five years to win three FBS games at home, Reich has done it in three games (read it again stat of the week). This is the first time we've had three home wins in a season since 2019 and the first time we've started 3-0 at home since 2018. It's hard to overstate the importance of giving fans something to cheer, especially as Luck works with some apparent success to revitalize enthusiasm around the program. There are plenty of warts still on the program but at the very least 2025 will end up being a year fans could leave campus happy a few times. This was also a big enough win to give us hope this season ends up demonstrating on-field progress over recent years. We don't yet know that will be the case but seems like it could be. The win moves us up to #86 in Sagarin (SP+ likes us less, down at #101), which would definitely be better than the #101 and #102 in the Taylor years and would get us back to the late Shaw level of #89 and #87 his last two years. My goal for this season was top 80 and that seems reachable. [We've had scoreboard performances this year befitting #79 (Hawaii is better than we thought), #108 (BYU is good but we were not), #80 (Boston College is horrific, as bad as we were the last two years), #143 (Virginia is good but we were not), #131 (a still really bad #102 if we treat San Jose State as a neutral site game), #108 (SMU is good but we were not), and #32 (obviously last night was the highlight of the season to beat a program of Florida State's reputation and ACC-bullying financial heft/scorn heaped on us ever since we joined, even if 1-11 in ACC play essentially mandates they fire Norvell)]
2. Watching in real-time past 2am my time I felt a mixture of pride, relief, and embarrassment that we won in significant part due to a dirty play that helped us a lot and despite the absurd comedy of errors by both teams. I felt more drained than happy and considered the game an ugly one I was glad we came out on top of more than a memorable win or statement. I still feel most of that but, after reflecting on the game this morning, I am much more positive about our performance and genuinely happy with what we accomplished. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot that can be said to downplay beating Florida State - literally everybody in the conference has beaten them for well over a year now, they were playing well after midnight by their body clocks after cross-country travel, there were several crucial calls that went our way (though in fairness the reverse is true too and this struck me as a delilishly hard game to officiate more than one the refs got particularly wrong in either direction), we might not have won without a nauseating play that knocked their star QB out, their inexcusable indiscipline may have cost them them a win on top of everything else (bailing us out with the offsides on the red zone field goal attempt to give us second lifebefore Williams' touchdown, the roughing the passer to give Brown a boost on the one drive he did well, getting fooled on the hard count to let us try to keep running clock with a two score lead into the fourth quarter....a break we squandered with the first of several insufficiently turtlish sequence by Reich). So why do I feel pretty good and am having that emotion eclipse embarrassment? Because Florida State is likely a top 40 team and, regardless of where they finish in the computers, haven't lost to anybody by more than eight points (Virginia) and we beat them at the top end of that range and didn't trail at any point and legitimately outplayed them in important respects. This was a very good win.
3. There were heroes for us in all phases so I won't begrudge Reich calling it a team win, but the lion's share of the credit goes to the defense. Whereas on offense we scored 1.82 points per non-garbage drive (excluding the kneel at the end of the half), making the #86 points per drive defense look like #36, we only gave up 1.08 points per drive, making the #10 points per drive offense look like #128. The astonishing stat: we just held a Gus Malzahn offense to 13 points. More pleasantly shocking things don't happen very often for Stanford football. The most Florida State had been stifled this year was top 25 defense Miami holding them to 22 points. You have to go back 14 years to the UCF days since Malzahn only scored 13 and he hasn't scored less than that going back 69 games since a Dan Lanning-led Georgia defense did it to Auburn in the second game of the pandemic. Holy guacamole, what did Andy Thompson just dial up? And it wasn't a lucky scoreboard outcome as much as a generalized squelching of a very good offense. This was the lowest yards per play we've given up in the last five games and we did it against the best offense we've faced this year. We were a yard and a freaking half per play under Florida State's average this season. Miami is the only team to hold them to fewer yards per play. The next closest was Alabama, which we did almost a half yard per play better than. What in the world? I did not know our defense was capable of this. For what it's worth, the offense averaged well under Florida State's average yards per play allowed and only Kent State and East Texas A&M have done worse on offense in either yards per play or scoring, so this was definitely won by the defense.
4. What made the defensive performance so awesome? Against a team with a super super super senior offensive line and a QB with Castellanos' dynamism I was shocked to see 3,09 yards per carry allowed, especially since our run defense this season hasn't looked good against good teams. This was truly outstanding given the opponent as no team, not even Miami and Alabama, has bottled up the Noles like this. The pass defense bent but didn't break, similarly giving a truly outstanding performance given the opponent. Malzahn is one of the best of the best in dialing up passing offense so giving up 8.9 yards per attempt is better than it sounds - Alabama gave up 10.9, Pitt gave up 10.7, and we came in 0.8 yards per attempt below the Seminole average. Keeping Castellanos out of the endzone via the air was even more notable. In the three other ACC games he had been averaging 2.33 passing touchdowns per game. Miami is the only team this year to hold Florida State to a worse passer rating. Giving up the Hail Mary to give them a chance was gross but our guys were clearly playing to keep the Noles in front of them and prevent the touchdown and couldn't have predicted the clock gift Florida State got. In light of that I think the pass defense may have been even better than the stats indicated, which was already a very impressive performance.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - msqueri - 10-19-2025
5. The big positive on offense was that the run game took another step forward after a tentative one last week. The previous three games we'd averaged only 49 yards on the ground and yesterday had 132, along with the third best yards per carry of our season. I think that was in part because we only gave up 19 yards of sacks, the lowest since the Boston College game. Notably, unlike last week, the run game was not only a step forward but actually respectable relative to opponent as we did better on the ground than not only Kent State and East Texas A&M but much more impressively also Alabama and Miami. Between the run game progress and the lower vulnerability to sacks than our norm, this feels like a big win for our offensive line. I have been very critical of our pipeline and will remain so, but we are seeing some glimmers. That's more than I'd expected.
6. Despite that progress, the overall offensive performance wasn't anything to write home about and that's because the passing yesterday was pretty ugly. It was our lowest yards per attempt and passer rating since the disastrous first two games of Bad Ben rearing his head against Hawaii and BYU. Only East Texas A&M had fewer passing yards, only Kent State and Alabama had lower yards per attempt, and only Kent State and ETAMU had a worse passer rating. Ugly. Neither QB qualified for the weekly Total QBR leaderboard since they split time, but if they had Gulbranson would have been 63rd of 118 nationally this week and Brown would have been 86th. If those sound better than the passing stats, I think they might be (though don't have granular Total QBR metrics for either since they didn't qualify). Quite notable in this one, as I mentioned, that we largely avoided sacks. I agree with all the comments that Brown looked bad outside of the third quarter touchdown drive, but I also note that he did have that drive, was getting his first action of the year, and mostly avoided sacks and negative plays. All in all, Total QBR thought this was far and away better than he played last year against SMU and Wake Forest and, compared to Gulbranson's 2025, worse than four games and better than three. That's serviceable enough that I am not despairing the Pitt-North Carolina-Cal stretch if Gulbranson's injury proves serious. I hope Gulbranson doesn't have to go out like that but regardless it may be the case that we have physically limited game manager QBs who can play competently at times. I have much more confidence in Gulbranson for deep balls but am not despairing if he can't play.
7. Both sides of the ball had extreme parity in terms of top performances, far from a clear cut case who should go home with game balls. On offense, I thought Roush, Williams, Tabb, and Prongos were all pretty equally deserving of top recognition. For Roush, this is two weeks in a row that he has looked like the player long-promised and oft-mocked by fans bemused by the hype. He's now third among ACC tight ends in receiving and trending upward in that regard while maintaining the level of blocking play that had previously outpaced his receiving. Williams is 9th in the ACC in receiving and shockingly only three yards per game behind where Ayomanor was last year (albeit in a disappointing year). The actual game ball/C-House chant honor went to Tabb for his 100+ yard game. He ran very well. [Moving the chains (first down) leaderboard: Tabb (7), Roush (4), Williams (3), High (also drew a pass interference), Ford] Since Tabb got his postgame recognition I will shout out one of our unsung heroes this year, Prongos. If the offensive line took a step forward in pass protection and/or run blocking, it seem fair to recognize our best lineman. For what it's worth, PFF thought Roush was the biggest star but agreed with me about several good performances.
8. My heart is bursting with pride for the defense having such a good performance driven by so many individual performances. This was much more a high quality team performance than it was heroics from any one or two individuals. I counted an incredible 14 players who showed up multiple times in the box score in positive ways, including two with six such plays (Galvan, Tafiti) and two more with four such plays (Green, Rose). The others were Staples, Edwards, Cooper, Nicholson, Davis, Patterson, Johnson, Aybar, Washington, and Eckhardt. Such a great game by the defense, and they did it with Wright out for more than half of it. I loved seeing so many plays by outside linebackers (the plays by the above and even a late play by Dubre), a rarity for us. Tafiti in particular came up brobdingnagian in crunch time in the red zone. As much as I am the charter member of the Wright fan club and also think Patterson, Rose, and Green are good, the more I see of Galvan now that he's returned the more I think he may be a contender for the best player on our team. Small sample and we'll see the rest of the way, but that guy is a baller. In this one he book-ended the game with the 3rd down run stop to force a punt on the opening drive and being in the right place to contribute to the controversial last play goal line stop and also had plays in between. Great to pair him with Rose, who was the proximate/pivotal guy on the two decisive and controversial fourth quarter stops to win the game. Green had a loud game with multiple pass breakups and a few other plays; I particularly like that he made plays in run defense, pass coverage, and tackling on a passing down. Nicholson and Eckhardt didn't have as many plays as these other four but I think are the other legitimate candidates for the game ball, as Nicholson forced not one but two punts with pass breakups (talk about making somebody pay for targeting you) and Eckhardt had a crunch time run stop and the 4th down pass breakup to force a turnover on downs (and was the highest PFF grade on defense!). I don't know how to pick among these guys but will go with Green for a signature game by our defense's indispensable man. There wasn't much negative on defense but I'll just say Leigber did not help us and the targeting would have had us grabbing pitchforks if the shoe were on the other foot.
9. Special teams had good and bad but made its contributions. Flintoft, as usual, stayed quite busy, this time with net punts of 49 to the 13 (very good), 41 to the 21 after a 16 yard return pre-penalty and 59 to the 3 once accounting for the penalty (out-kicked coverage but phenomenal result as it turned out), 13 to the 42 (nightmare breakdown in that situation, hard to tell on tv whether we had a breakdown in the unit not being on the same page or getting fooled by a Florida State fake return), 51 to the 25 (brobdingnagian and clutch), 43 to the 39 (good to not mess around with hang time), and 39 to the 20 after a 16 yard return (not disastrous but having such poor hang time to allow Florida State such a shorter field in that situation with 71 seconds left is really bad). Kenney made field goals of 32 and 26 yards, as well as the miss saved by the penalty but I don't hold that against him as the offsides could have messed with the operation. Very happy for Thorpe bouncing back from last week by cleanly fielding his punt and breaking off a big 26 yard return. High had a 17 yard return to the 20, failing to take advantage of the first time this year Florida State has had a kick returned (!), but I have no problem at all with the decision to return that as it was the end of the half and a long return to try to steal points was the only thing we had to play for that half with the clock dwindling. Some solid coverage tackles by I think Nicholson, Warford, and Dubre.
10. Game balls: Niki Prongos, Jay Green, Liam Thorpe, Andy Thompson
11. It's nice to head into the least winnable game of the year (on paper) coming off a high. The Miami game will now feel like playing with house money and even if it's an uncompetitive result there's hopefully enough confidence built up from the three wins to date that we can have some spirit for the stretch run of the season that includes several winnable games. In the meantime, let's have some fun in Miami. As Reich alluded to in his press conference, the next step for us is showing that we can be competent on the road. It is unmistakable at this point that Stanford has had trouble on the road and going east in particular has been ugly. When we've played good teams in BYU, Virginia, and SMU the results have not been good, though at least we were in the SMU game late. It would be nice to show some fight against Miami. It is far more likely that we won't and even if we don't it is still well within our power this year to show progress and make a case we're building a foundation for the future. Whether we are able to make the Miami game part of that case or not, I'll be there ready to party!
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - BostonCard - 10-19-2025
I’m curious why you labeled the goal line stand “controversial”. On the game thread, I thought he was in but that there wasn’t indisputable evidence to reverse the call, which I think was what happened (though the refs said that call was “upheld”, which is neither “confirmed” nor “stands”, but sounds a bit more like “confirmed” than “stands”). In any case, going back, I do not see a clear view of the ball vis a vis the line before the ball-carriers knee was down, and the first view of the ball after the knee is down does show it short of the goal line. As I said, I think the runner got the ball past the goal line and Galvin pushed him back, but I can’t find any of the video shots that show the position of the ball, so I think the refs got this right within the guidelines for review. The call on the field was certainly defensible (and the line judge had the best view), and not overturning the call I think was the correct video review.
BC
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - msqueri - 10-19-2025
(10-19-2025, 02:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I’m curious why you labeled the goal line stand “controversial”. On the game thread, I thought he was in but that there wasn’t indisputable evidence to reverse the call, which I think was what happened (though the refs said that call was “upheld”, which is neither “confirmed” nor “stands”, but sounds a bit more like “confirmed” than “stands”). In any case, going back, I do not see a clear view of the ball vis a vis the line before the ball-carriers knee was down, and the first view of the ball after the knee is down does show it short of the goal line. As I said, I think the runner got the ball past the goal line and Galvin pushed him back, but I can’t find any of the video shots that show the position of the ball, so I think the refs got this right within the guidelines for review. The call on the field was certainly defensible (and the line judge had the best view), and not overturning the call I think was the correct video review.
BC
I think there were several calls that were upheld because of the original call on the field rather than what likely actually happened, an issue that was exacerbated by it being a somewhat low production value game without many cameras. If one were a Florida State fan I think it would be controversial just because it was probably the case that the ball at least touched the plane. More likely than not that should have been a touchdown I think. I have also heard some say it could have plausibly been called targeting. Here is one article calling the end of game sequence controversial: https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/stanford-fsu-technical-difficulties-camera-angles-replay.html
I have seen several people comment on "upheld" vs. "confirmed" or "stands." I believe you all are getting caught up on old terminology. Everything is now either upheld or overturned. College football replay reviews no longer provide the prior nuance of "confirmed" and "stands."
As I said in my post, I think the close calls benefited/harmed both teams. There were other upheld calls, clock keeping quirks, etc. that got FSU in the position for that play in the first place. I don't think either team was necessarily gifted/robbed by the officials overall. Just a bit of a messy, chaotic nightmare for referees to adjudicate and it was all made worse by the bad cameras.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - BostonCard - 10-19-2025
Reading the article, I guess the controversy is really more along the lines of poor production quality/lack of camera views (plus that whole “technical difficulty”) which is a fair critique. I thought what you meant was that the call itself was controversial, and sure, I could see why an FSU fan would be chuffed, but I think most objective observers (including the link you provided) is that there was not enough evidence to overturn. The short of it is that the ball probably did kiss the plane, but there is no camera angle that shows it, so you are left to deduce where the ball is based on where the player is, even though the cameras are blocked from the ball (and the camera is behind the goal line, so there is some parallax). On the last frame before the ball is shielded from view, it hasn’t crossed the goal line, and on the first view of the ball after the knee is clearly down, it is short of the goal line. I think what happened is that it probably crossed the goal line and Galvin pushed him back, but that is conjecture on my part.
Thanks for the explanation on “upheld” versus “confirmed”/“stands”; I didn’t know the system had changed in college. Although it was a distinction without a difference, I do think it is helpful to know the difference between when the video call proves the call on the field versus when it merely fails to overturn it (I also have always thought that when it is a coach’s challenge, if the ruling is “confirmed” then the coach should lose the challenge, but if it merely “stands” then the coach shouldn’t have lost the challenge).
FWIW, I thought the clock-keeping was fine at the end. There were clearly two seconds left (maybe even three) when the receiver went down, and the clock operator ran it down to 0; even though it gave me a bit of heartburn, it was appropriate for the refs to stop things to ask for the clock to be re-set, which probably was enough time for FSU to get set for the play.
BC
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - BigJohn043 - 10-19-2025
My view of this one is simple. We found a way to get a win against a team that beat Bama to open the season. They have clearly fallen off but whatever. In a season where we easily could have quit we have kept battling. I heard going into the season that the team really liked Reich and the whole team had a better feel. Teams that stay together find ways to win games.
Big win for the good guys whatever the stats say. Big win for the program and gives us some momentum.
Would love to get Reich to stay...
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - msqueri - 10-19-2025
(10-19-2025, 03:50 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote: My view of this one is simple. We found a way to get a win against a team that beat Bama to open the season. They have clearly fallen off but whatever. In a season where we easily could have quit we have kept battling. I heard going into the season that the team really liked Reich and the whole team had a better feel. Teams that stay together find ways to win games.
Big win for the good guys whatever the stats say. Big win for the program and gives us some momentum.
Would love to get Reich to stay...
I like Reich too but am eager to see new assistants and don't think Reich has been so good that we should want to go all in on continuity. Even with this win we are one of the 3-5 worst power conference teams in the nation. I am grateful for Reich's steadiness but want this staff replaced. I definitely do not want our offensive and defensive coordinators to be the level we roll with in the upcoming era.
Fundamentally, one good win should not sway us too much in this kind of strategic decision. We have beaten teams that beat great teams every year. We have seen signs of battling at various points every year. It's nice to hear that the team has rallied behind Reich, but unless there are signs of exit velocity from the echelon of college football we've been mired in I really don't want to double down on continuity. If anything I worry that Luck will assess things are on the right track and stay the course with regard to recruiting, assistants, strength and conditioning, etc. I don't think that's optimal when we're a mid-80s to low 100s team nationally. In other words, we suck. We need some pretty big change to get to the level we need to be.
For what it's worth, we beat 9 win Louisville in 2024, 8 win Oregon State in 2023, 9 win Notre Dame in 2022, and 10 win Oregon in 2021. We were a horrible team all of those years and those nice wins did not portend we were on the right track. It would be a terrible mistake to wishfully cast our best game or two this year as a sign we're on the right track.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - BigJohn043 - 10-19-2025
(10-19-2025, 04:35 PM)msqueri Wrote:(10-19-2025, 03:50 PM)BigJohn043 Wrote: My view of this one is simple. We found a way to get a win against a team that beat Bama to open the season. They have clearly fallen off but whatever. In a season where we easily could have quit we have kept battling. I heard going into the season that the team really liked Reich and the whole team had a better feel. Teams that stay together find ways to win games.
Big win for the good guys whatever the stats say. Big win for the program and gives us some momentum.
Would love to get Reich to stay...
I like Reich too but am eager to see new assistants and don't think Reich has been so good that we should want to go all in on continuity. Even with this win we are one of the 3-5 worst power conference teams in the nation. I am grateful for Reich's steadiness but want this staff replaced. I definitely do not want our offensive and defensive coordinators to be the level we roll with in the upcoming era.
Fundamentally, one good win should not sway us too much in this kind of strategic decision. We have beaten teams that beat great teams every year. We have seen signs of battling at various points every year. It's nice to hear that the team has rallied behind Reich, but unless there are signs of exit velocity from the echelon of college football we've been mired in I really don't want to double down on continuity. If anything I worry that Luck will assess things are on the right track and stay the course with regard to recruiting, assistants, strength and conditioning, etc. I don't think that's optimal when we're a mid-80s to low 100s team nationally. In other words, we suck. We need some pretty big change to get to the level we need to be.
For what it's worth, we beat 9 win Louisville in 2024, 8 win Oregon State in 2023, 9 win Notre Dame in 2022, and 10 win Oregon in 2021. We were a horrible team all of those years and those nice wins did not portend we were on the right track. It would be a terrible mistake to wishfully cast our best game or two this year as a sign we're on the right track.
Agree about assistants. The change in tenor is even more impressive given that Reich hasn't gotten to choose his team.
I am just not worried about Luck resting on his laurels. He understands we need big change....
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - martyup - 10-19-2025
Galvan was our high tackler with 10 (6 solo). He has been solid. I would include him in any game ball awards.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - scorecard - 10-19-2025
Here is the best video I've seen, from the gostanford website. Still a lousy angle, but if you pause and go frame by frame, you can see that the runner's shin is down before he really starts to extend the ball toward the goal line. I think the call on the field was correct, which is good because I would NEVER EVER question a referee's call.
https://video.wmt.media/embed/5de0203c-7e01-4ce4-be9d-b301e04c4a1c
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - JeffInCorvallis - 10-19-2025
(10-19-2025, 07:30 PM)scorecard Wrote: Here is the best video I've seen, from the gostanford website. Still a lousy angle, but if you pause and go frame by frame, you can see that the runner's shin is down before he really starts to extend the ball toward the goal line. I think the call on the field was correct, which is good because I would NEVER EVER question a referee's call.
https://video.wmt.media/embed/5de0203c-7e01-4ce4-be9d-b301e04c4a1c
Who shoots vertical video? Edited to fit smartphone screen aspect ratio? Bleah. Give me the 4K shot.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - GK3 - 10-20-2025
(10-19-2025, 02:32 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I’m curious why you labeled the goal line stand “controversial”. On the game thread, I thought he was in but that there wasn’t indisputable evidence to reverse the call, which I think was what happened (though the refs said that call was “upheld”, which is neither “confirmed” nor “stands”, but sounds a bit more like “confirmed” than “stands”). In any case, going back, I do not see a clear view of the ball vis a vis the line before the ball-carriers knee was down, and the first view of the ball after the knee is down does show it short of the goal line. As I said, I think the runner got the ball past the goal line and Galvin pushed him back, but I can’t find any of the video shots that show the position of the ball, so I think the refs got this right within the guidelines for review. The call on the field was certainly defensible (and the line judge had the best view), and not overturning the call I think was the correct video review.When a guy lays out like that if is very hard to tell wheter a knee was down before the ball was extended across the goal. Sad fact is it should have been an issue. The clock handling at the end was just simply awful.
BC
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - CowboyIndian - 10-22-2025
(10-19-2025, 09:53 PM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote: Who shoots vertical video? Edited to fit smartphone screen aspect ratio? Bleah. Give me the 4K shot.
Right on! A "Get off my lawn!" pet peeve.
RE: Sunday morning (err, afternoon) thoughts - Florida State - cardcrimson - 10-22-2025
(10-19-2025, 09:53 PM)JeffInCorvallis Wrote:(10-19-2025, 07:30 PM)scorecard Wrote: Here is the best video I've seen, from the gostanford website. Still a lousy angle, but if you pause and go frame by frame, you can see that the runner's shin is down before he really starts to extend the ball toward the goal line. I think the call on the field was correct, which is good because I would NEVER EVER question a referee's call.
https://video.wmt.media/embed/5de0203c-7e01-4ce4-be9d-b301e04c4a1c
Who shoots vertical video? Edited to fit smartphone screen aspect ratio? Bleah. Give me the 4K shot.
Phogge probably has it, or has access to it, as he does the unseen video of The Play. But alas. . ..