Stanford WBB next three games - Printable Version

Stanford WBB next three games - Printable Version

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Stanford WBB next three games - BobK - 12-12-2025

https://www.stanfordfbc.org/

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BobK - 12-14-2025

Washington beat Green Bay last night 79-74

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - Lorcan - 12-14-2025

It's a good win for Washington. Still a bit disappointed in their loss to Southern Cal, but they've had some challenges with Ladine out with injury.

UConn has chugged along as usual - with Azzi Fudd shooting 50/50/100 from the floor and becoming a defensive menace.

Elsewhere, Lindy's UNLV was showing promise early with a close loss to Baylor, beating Creighton, Northern Iowa, and Wazzu (who has lost to almost everyone). The blowout losses to Rice and Cincinnati are concerning in their past two.

Really hoping for a good performance against Cal today - the Oregon and Washington games loom large and are likely among our best bets to build a quality resume for the tourney.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - Spiny_Norman - 12-15-2025

A report on Sayvia Sellers from Washington (via The Athletic). She will present a significant challenge to Stanford's defense.

Quote:Twenty-three players are averaging at least 20 points per game this season, led by Crooks at 27.8. Washington’s Sayvia Sellers squeaks in with 20.3, and the Huskies have needed all of that production, especially in a five-point win over Green Bay. Sellers was the lone bright spot in Washington’s loss against USC (and that’s saying something since she shot 7 of 23 from the field) and dialed up the efficiency against the Phoenix to avoid the upset.

Sellers does so much for the Huskies’ offense. She brings the ball up and initiates possessions, but she also is constantly moving when she gets off the ball. She is always weaving at the top of the key, relocating and setting screens. The movement benefits her, of course, but it’s a lot of energy to expend, particularly because Washington also relies on her to call her own number at times. There aren’t many scorers who can duck in the post and also hit crossover, stepback 3-pointers.

The Huskies haven’t exactly proven anything yet this season. They lost their only big test to the Trojans, and their win over Green Bay, though exciting, need not have been that close. But they have a go-to option in Sellers, who makes it hard to bet against their ceiling.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - OCcardinal - 12-17-2025

Even if Stanford WBB loses each of its next 3 games, it will still have more wins through 14 games than it did last season. And if it wins only 1 of its next 8 games, it will have the same number of wins through 19 games as it did last season. This is a stretch for this year's squad to really separate itself from last season. Massey has Stanford favored in 5 of the next 8 games.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - ljw63 - 12-18-2025

(12-17-2025, 02:30 PM)OCcardinal Wrote: Even if Stanford WBB loses each of its next 3 games, it will still have more wins through 14 games than it did last season. And if it wins only 1 of its next 8 games, it will have the same number of wins through 19 games as it did last season. This is a stretch for this year's squad to really separate itself from last season. Massey has Stanford favored in 5 of the next 8 games.

Thanks to YouTube I have now been able to watch all of the games. My observations about individual players follows:
Agara- Steady player, good all around, no major weaknesses
Somfai – Streaky, high upside, will probably be better every year
Ogden – Best shooter on team, continues to improve, good on both O and D
Swain- Very streaky, high upside, can drive to the basket but needs to learn when she should shoot and when she should pass
Lepolo- Probably has the best vision of any player and can make good passes. However, it is not translating into assists. Can score when left alone but cannot create her own shot. Gets beat often by quicker players. Should play fewer minutes
Clardy – Good all around player, still improving, can drive, hit threes and anticipates well on defense
Eschmeyer – Excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Needs to develop strength. High upside. Under utilized. The more she plays the higher our chances of winning.
Stephenson- Steady but not spectacular rebounder and defensive player. Can score some under the basket.
Amborn- Can really shoot. Everythibg else is unknown. Needs to play more. High upside.
The others have not played enough to really judge.
I cannot find +/- ratings but I think they would all be plus because of our wins. Stephenson and Lepolo would probably have lowest scores.
In my judgment we should take minutes away from Lepolo and give them primarily to Eschmeyer. I think we might have won the two games we lost if Eschmeyer had played more. I also think Shay would have been an asset against Tennessee. She is quick enough to evade the double team. I have the sense we will lose several games we could win because of who plays the available minutes.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BostonCard - 12-18-2025

In terms of advanced stats, here’s where the team ranks by Bart Tovic’s metrics.

https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/team.php?team=Stanford&year=2026

Probably the best overall metric is PORPAGATU! (https://barttorvik.com/porpagatu.html) which stands for “Points Over Replacement Player Per Adjusted Game At That Usage”, the basic idea is to estimate how many more points per game a player creates than a hypothetical "replacement player" would, adjusting for the player’s usage (it is easier to be more efficient at a lower usage rate, since the highest usage players are asked to take the toughest shots).

Here’s where the players on the team ranks:

1) Agara (6.3)
2) Clardy (4.7)
3) Ogden (3.0)
4) Lepolo (2.8)
5) Somfai (2.6)

I think compared to conventional wisdom here, Somfai’s PORPAGATU! is probably lower than expected and Lepolo’s is higher.

6) Amborn (2.0)
7) Stevenson (1.3)
8) Eschmeyer (1.2)
9) Swain (1.1)

I think here’s another case where there is a gap between perceptions on this board (Eschmeyer >> Stevenson, Paye is committing coaching malpractice by not playing Eschmeyer enough) and what the advanced stats say (Eschmeyer is approximately equal to Stevenson, if not slightly behind). The other big perception gap is around Swain, who PORPAGATU! doesn’t like at all, but who has the support of most of this board (but could she finish stronger, please) and the coaching staff as she is being used in 60% of available minutes.

The other thing that the stats point to is that Amborn should be playing more than she is.

BC

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - martyup - 12-18-2025

I wonder how many attempts are needed for Amborn to win the award for highest FG percentage in college basketball. Excluding FTs, she's 8-8.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - jonnyss - 12-18-2025

carly plays the same position as courtney ogden, and at this point, ogden's defense is much better.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - OCcardinal - 12-18-2025

What's up with Kennedy Umeh? Is she injured/out for the season?

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BobK - 12-18-2025

Umeh has a large brace on her right arm

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - M T - 12-19-2025

(12-18-2025, 06:10 PM)BostonCard Wrote: In terms of advanced stats, here’s where the team ranks by Bart Tovic’s metrics.

https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/team.php?team=Stanford&year=2026

Probably the best overall metric is PORPAGATU! (https://barttorvik.com/porpagatu.html) which stands for “Points Over Replacement Player Per Adjusted Game At That Usage”, the basic idea is to estimate how many more points per game a player creates than a hypothetical "replacement player" would, adjusting for the player’s usage (it is easier to be more efficient at a lower usage rate, since the highest usage players are asked to take the toughest shots).
...
The other thing that the stats point to is that Amborn should be playing more than she is.

BC

As that website says, this is an OFFENSE stat. There are two ends of a basketball court last I checked. All a team has to do is prevent the other team from scoring more points than they do.

I'm not picking on Amborn here; it is just easy to see that her defense currently is not as good as (say) any replacement. The same goes for some of the other players. I think most people on this board pay attention to offense capabilities to the neglect of other aspects. I see board favorites freeze and watch a shot rather than blocking out or getting into a favorable position. I really appreciate it when I see some of our players aggressively blocking out. They may not get the rebound, but their opponent doesn't either.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - Jskass - 12-19-2025

another problem with that stat (and I AM a big fan of stats) -- does not take into account potential. So for example Stevenson-Eschmeyer debate is meaningful because Stevenson likely at or near her peak potential vs. Eschmeyer's cap is much higher so we need to get her the experience so she continues to grow and reach it sooner...making her that much more effective as her ceiling on the stat much higher...

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - petersalas - 12-19-2025

Briefly chatted with her after the Tennessee game and she mentioned a 5 month recovery.

(12-18-2025, 08:03 PM)OCcardinal Wrote: What's up with Kennedy Umeh? Is she injured/out for the season?

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BillBradley - 12-19-2025

(12-19-2025, 06:24 AM)Jskass Wrote: another problem with that stat (and I AM a big fan of stats) -- does not take into account potential. So for example Stevenson-Eschmeyer debate is meaningful because Stevenson likely at or near her peak potential vs. Eschmeyer's cap is much higher so we need to get her the experience so she continues to grow and reach it sooner...making her that much more effective as her ceiling on the stat much higher...

Agree. There seem to be misconception on this board that the Eschmeyer/Stevenson debate is about who is currently playing better, and taken a step further, that the coach should play the better player. That's not the debate, AFAIC. Many coaches play their young talent during the preseason, and even sacrifice wins, with the belief that they will be a better team later in the year. And then there's the transfer portal, which makes it even more important to play your young talent. That's the debate.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - petersalas - 12-19-2025

Nunu isn’t warming up and looks to be out for the game.

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BostonCard - 12-19-2025

(12-19-2025, 12:01 AM)M T Wrote: As that website says, this is an OFFENSE stat. There are two ends of a basketball court last I checked. All a team has to do is prevent the other team from scoring more points than they do.

There is a D-PRPG stat as well. Am born struggles there at -0.6, which is probably why her usage is down.

Interestingly MAS has a better defensive PRPG (2.1) than Eschmeyer (1.8).

BC

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BostonCard - 12-20-2025

(12-19-2025, 07:01 PM)BillBradley Wrote:
(12-19-2025, 06:24 AM)Jskass Wrote: another problem with that stat (and I AM a big fan of stats) -- does not take into account potential. So for example Stevenson-Eschmeyer debate is meaningful because Stevenson likely at or near her peak potential vs. Eschmeyer's cap is much higher so we need to get her the experience so she continues to grow and reach it sooner...making her that much more effective as her ceiling on the stat much higher...
Agree. There seem to be misconception on this board that the Eschmeyer/Stevenson debate is about who is currently playing better, and taken a step further, that the coach should play the better player. That's not the debate, AFAIC. Many coaches play their young talent during the preseason, and even sacrifice wins, with the belief that they will be a better team later in the year. And then there's the transfer portal, which makes it even more important to play your young talent. That's the debate.

This seems like shifting goalposts, as there are plenty of comments about why MAS is inadequate getting substantial minutes right now and Eschmeyer would be better taking her minutes right now.

I don’t disagree that giving young talent a chance to develop early in the season, especially in blowouts or games that are well under control makes sense. However, it’s not like Eschmeyer hasn’t been given significant minutes; she is one of the top 8 players in the rotation, which is usually the defining line between a regular back-up and a benchwarmer. She’s played in all 12 games and is getting double-digit minutes on average; she is in the game 29% of the time (140/480 available minutes).

I understand you’d like to see her get more minutes (presumably at the expense of Stevenson). While I get the desire to give high potential players early opportunities, it is possible to take it too far. First of all, “potential” is a nebulous term and it is very subjective and thus can lead to bias. Lots of examples of supposedly high potential players who never develop it as well as late bloomers who might have been thought to be at their ceiling, who burst through it. So, saying that a certain player should play less to make room for a supposedly higher potential younger player, is, in essence, writing the first player off. At every level from pee wee leagues to the pros, coaches will harp on the idea that players “earn” playing time. Giving playing time out on the basis of potential undermines this premise, and is a recipe for discord in the locker room, since a player who believes they have earned playing time by doing what the coach asks doesn’t see it at the expense of a player who has been anointed the future on the basis of their “potential”.

Lastly, I think it is easy to fall prey to the back-up fallacy when evaluating players who don’t see a lot of playing time. We get to see the warts of the players who are in the game, but don’t get to see the downsides of the players who are not, especially ones who we view as having a high potential. It is natural to assume that such a player will always play to that potential, not recognizing that young players are inconsistent, at best.

Bottom line, I think the handling of Eschmeyer to date has been fine. She has a lot of things to work on, so it is appropriate to bring her along at a measured pace, and increase her playing time as she (or if she) develops as we all hope. I know we are all scarred by Betts’ transfer, but playing time was one of many (and probably not the biggest) reason she transferred, and I don’t think that the threat of transfer is a good reason to allocate playing time. As the saying goes, if you coddle a player who is only in it for themselves you get a player is only in it for themself. Fortunately, by all indications, including her parents’ comments, Eschmeyer is not such a player.

BC

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - BobK - 12-20-2025

Well said BC.
One comment to Bill. I have never heard of a coach sacrificing wins
We are missing a brobdingnagian factor. We never see practice. We have 6-7 coaches evaluating practices and I firmly believe they know more than us.
That said our weakest point on defense is post defense

RE: Stanford WBB next three games - amytmueller - 12-20-2025

(12-18-2025, 06:10 PM)BostonCard Wrote: In terms of advanced stats, here’s where the team ranks by Bart Tovic’s metrics.

https://barttorvik.com/ncaaw/team.php?team=Stanford&year=2026

Thanks for the link, BC! Fascinating data, I'll have to spend some time looking at the various stat definitions.