Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense, defense, turnovers (revised)

Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense, defense, turnovers (revised) - Printable Version

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Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense, defense, turnovers (revised) - terry - 12-20-2011

A statistical comparison of the Stanford and Oklahoma State offenses (data for the defense and for turnovers is further down in this thread)

.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â StanfordÂ Â Okla. St.

Scoring

Points scored/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 43.6Â Â Â Â 49.3
Points allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â 20.3Â Â Â Â 25.8
Average scoring marginÂ Â Â +23.3Â Â Â +23.5

Total Offense

Plays/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 71.2Â Â Â Â Â 77.5
Yards/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 481Â Â Â Â Â 557
Yards/playÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.8Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.2
Runs-passes / gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â 39-32Â Â Â Â 31-46
Run/pass ratioÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 55%-45%Â Â 41%-59%Â
First downs/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 24.8Â Â Â Â Â 26.8
3rd down conversion pct.Â Â Â 52.2%Â Â Â 50.0%
Drives with 1st down or TDÂ Â 82%Â Â Â Â Â 75%
Red zone scoringÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 98%Â Â Â Â Â 88%
Red zone TDsÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 78%Â Â Â Â Â 65%
Time of possessionÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 33:07Â Â Â Â 26:58

Rushing Offense

Rushing attempts/gameÂ Â Â Â Â 39Â Â Â Â Â Â 31
Rushing yards/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 208Â Â Â Â Â 171
Rushing yards/attemptÂ Â Â Â Â Â 5.3Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.4
Rush yds/gm excl. sacksÂ Â Â Â 213Â Â Â Â Â 179Â
Rush yds/att excl. sacksÂ Â Â Â Â 5.6Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.9
Rush att gaining 10+ ydsÂ Â Â 14%Â Â Â Â Â 16%

Passing Offense

Pass comp-att per gameÂ Â Â 23-32Â Â Â 33-46
Passing yards/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 273Â Â Â Â Â 386
Yards per pass attemptÂ Â Â Â Â 8.5Â Â Â Â Â 8.4
Yards per completionÂ Â Â Â Â Â 12.1Â Â Â Â 11.6
Compl. gaining 20+ ydsÂ Â Â Â Â 17%Â Â Â Â 16%
Pass efficiency ratingÂ Â Â Â Â Â 167.4Â Â Â 160.3
Completion pct.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 70%Â Â Â Â 72%
TD passesÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 36Â Â Â Â Â Â 37
TD percentageÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9.3%Â Â Â Â 6.7%
InterceptionsÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9Â Â Â Â Â Â 12
Interception pct.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.3%Â Â Â Â 2.2%
Sacks allowedÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9Â Â Â Â Â Â 11
Pass att. per sack allowedÂ Â Â 43Â Â Â Â Â Â 50

These are two very effective offenses with different styles. Oklahoma State is 2nd in the nation in scoring; Stanford is 5th. Oklahoma State is 3rd in yards per play; Stanford is 7th. Stanford is slightly better in 3rd down conversion rate and red zone conversion rate. Stanford also has fewer three-and-outs, ranking first in the nation in percentage of drives with at least one first down or TD.

The biggest difference, of course, is that Oklahoma State is a pass-first offense, while Stanford is a run-first offense. However, both teams are effective in both passing and running.

The statistics show that although Stanford runs the ball more, Oklahoma State runs the ball quite effectively. Oklahoma State averages more yards per carry (5.4 to 5.3). When sacks are removed from the rushing stats, Oklahoma State's advantage in yards per carry grows (5.9 to 5.6). Oklahoma State has a higher percentage of runs that go for more than 10 yards. OK State's top two runners, Randle and Smith, average 6.0 and 7.2 yards per carry, compared to Taylor's 5.6 and Gaffney's 6.4.

Likewise, while Oklahoma State passes the ball more, Stanford passes the ball quite effectively. Stanford averages more yards per pass attempt (8.5 to 8.4) and has a higher pass efficiency rating (167 to 160). On the spectrum of "long ball" vs. "dink and dunk," Oklahoma State is somewhat on the "dink and dunk" side of the spectrum while Stanford is close to the middle. Oklahoma State averages 11.6 yards per pass completion, which is 79th in the nation. Stanford averages 12.1 yards per completion, 55th in the nation and slightly above the national average of 12.0 yards. OK State's leading receivers, Blackmon and Cooper, have relatively modest averages of 11.8 yards/catch and 10.3 yards/catch respectively. For Stanford, Whalen, Montgomery, and the three tight ends all average 13.4 yards/catch or more. Stanford has a slightly lower percentage of completions that gain under 10 yards (51% to 53%) and a slightly higher percentage of completions that gain 20+ yards (17% to 16%).

Oklahoma State protects the passer very well, allowing only 1 sack for every 50 pass attempts. That's slightly better than Stanford's figure of 1 sack for every 43 pass attempts. It's not going to be easy to get at the passer.

A statistical comparison of the defenses is coming soon.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - Spiny_Norman - 12-20-2011

Great job as always, Terry.Â Hope to run into you in Scottsdale/Glendale.

Not sure if penalties fall under offense or defense, but I wanted to look at penalties as well.Â Both teams again are remarkably similar.

Stanford - 6.26 penalties/game, 56.83 yards/game, 9.1 yards/penalty
OSU - 5.92 penalties/game, 54.25 yards/game, 9.2 yards/penalty

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - GulfCoastPoke - 12-21-2011

Awesome job Terry!Â Talk about some evenly matched offenses; my eyes opened wide when I saw Stanford's red zone scoring and red zone TD %...holy cow!

I'm so excited about this game.Â What an opportunity for OSU to play a team with a great offense, albeit completely different in style.Â This game can't get here fast enough!

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - Pokefan20 - 12-21-2011

One observation I have made about our offense this season is that when our offense is clicking it is unstoppable but when its not we are prone to alot of 3 and outs.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - Platypoke - 12-21-2011

Wow that was a really impressive breakdown. I see the offenses as being pretty darn even. It should be a great game.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - terry - 12-21-2011

A statistical comparison of the Stanford and Oklahoma State defenses and turnovers:

.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â StanfordÂ Â Okla. St.
Scoring

Points allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 20.3Â Â Â Â 25.8

Total Defense

Opp. plays/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 63.2Â Â Â Â 84.0
Yards allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 331Â Â Â Â Â 446
Yards allowed/playÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.2Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.3
Opp. runs-passes / gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 29-34Â Â Â 42-43
Opp. run/pass ratioÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 46%-54%Â 49%-51%Â
First downs allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 20.3Â Â Â Â Â 25.2
Opp. 3rd down conversion pct.Â Â Â Â 31%Â Â Â Â 41%
Opp. drives with 1st down or TDÂ Â Â 64%Â Â Â Â 68%
Opp. red zone scoringÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 74%Â Â Â Â 72%
Opp. red zone TDsÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 60%Â Â Â Â 49%
Opp. time of possessionÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 26:53Â Â Â 33:02
Tackles for loss per gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.3Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.0

Rushing Defense

Opp. rushing attempts/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â 29Â Â Â Â Â Â 42
Rushing yards allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â 90Â Â Â Â Â Â 180
Rushing yards allowed/attemptÂ Â Â Â 3.1Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.3
Rush yds allowed/gm excl. sacksÂ Â Â 115Â Â Â Â Â 195Â
Rush yds allowed/att excl. sacksÂ Â Â 4.4Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.0
Opp. rush att gaining 10+ ydsÂ Â Â Â Â 12%Â Â Â Â Â 14%

Pass Defense

Opp. pass comp-att per gameÂ Â Â Â 21-34Â Â Â Â 25-43
Passing yards allowed/gameÂ Â Â Â Â Â 241Â Â Â Â Â 266
Yards allowed per pass attemptÂ Â Â Â 7.1Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.2
Yards allowed per completionÂ Â Â Â Â 11.6Â Â Â Â Â 10.8
Opp. compl. gaining 20+ ydsÂ Â Â Â Â Â 14%Â Â Â Â Â 13%
Opp. pass efficiency ratingÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â 129.5Â Â Â Â 109.7
Opp. completion pct.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 61%Â Â Â Â Â 58%
Opp. TD passesÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15Â Â Â Â Â Â 13
Opp. TD percentageÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.7%Â Â Â Â 2.5%
Passes interceptedÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â Â 23
Interception pct.Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5%Â Â Â Â 4.5%
SacksÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 38Â Â Â Â Â Â 28
Opp. pass att. per sackÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10.8Â Â Â Â Â 18.2

Turnovers

Fumbles - lostÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11-6Â Â Â Â 15-10
Interceptions thrownÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9Â Â Â Â Â Â 12
Total turnoversÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15Â Â Â Â Â Â 22

Opp. fumbles - lostÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 29-15Â Â Â Â 25-19
Passes interceptedÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â Â 23
TakeawaysÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 21Â Â Â Â Â Â 42

Turnover marginÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +6Â Â Â Â Â +20

It's tempting to look at the Oklahoma State defense and conclude that it's no good, given that OK State allows 446 yards per game (107th in the nation). That's an awful lot of yards. Stanford, which leads the Pac 12 in total defense at 331 yards per game (25th in the nation), would seem to have a decisive edge on the defensive side of the ball. But I don't think it's that simple.

Oklahoma State's defense has been on the field for 84 plays per game, easily the most in the nation. Stanford's defense has been on the field for only 63 plays per game. So Oklahoma State has defended about 33% more plays than Stanford has. The exceptionally high number of plays defended explains why Oklahoma State has given up so many yards.

The question, then, is why does the Oklahoma State defense face so many plays? Is it because they can't stop their opponents from putting together long drives, or is there some other reason? To a significant extent, I think there's another reason. Oklahoma State's games involve more pass plays than any other team's games. Oklahoma State's offense has the 5th most pass attempts in the nation (46 per game), and Oklahoma State's defense faces more pass attempts than any other defense (43 per game). Pass plays tend to stop the clock more often than runs because the clock stops on incompletions, and because a completed pass is more likely to get a first down than the average run. Clock stoppages allow both teams to run more plays. Oklahoma State ranks 10th in the nation in offensive plays per game, and 1st in defensive plays per game. The typical Oklahoma State game involves 162 plays, compared to 134 plays in the typical Stanford game.

If we look at Oklahoma State's defensive performance based on metrics that aren't affected by the number of plays per game, OK State's defense looks better. Oklahoma State gives up 5.3 yards per play, which is 52nd in the nation -- a lot better than OK State's 107th rank in yards allowed per game. Stanford gives up 5.2 yards per play, which is 48th. The two defenses are similar according to this measure. I think that's probably a more meaningful way of looking at it.

There are other reasons that Oklahoma State's defense stays on the field a lot. As is discussed further below, OK State's run defense isn't great, OK State allows relatively low yards per pass completion, and OK State's 3rd down conversion defense isn't great. All of this adds up to OK State's opponents sustaining drives by running several plays to pick up each first down, which means OK State's opponents tend to take more plays on each drive. OK State is 11th in the nation in the percentage of opponents' drives that take 10 or more plays (19.4%). An offense that is good as sustaining long, methodical drives without making mistakes may be able to take advantage of OK State's defense.

In some ways, the two defenses are mirror images of each other. Oklahoma State has quite a good pass defense, while Stanford has a significantly better run defense.

OK State's pass defense allows only 6.2 yards per attempt (15th in the nation) and has a pass defense efficiency rating of only 109.7 (8th in the nation). OK State ranks 2nd nationally with 23 interceptions. OK State's pass defense tends to keep everything in front of them -- they allow just 10.8 yards per completion, compared to the national average of 11.8 yards per completion. That is quite a good pass defense. Stanford's pass defense is in the middle of the pack. Stanford allows 7.1 yards per attempt (61st out of 120 nationally), has a pass defense efficiency rating of 129.5 (62nd), and allows 11.6 yards per completion (55th). Stanford does have a better pass rush with 38 sacks (5th in the nation in sacks per game), compared to 28 sacks for OK State (27th nationally). Overall, Stanford has a decent pass defense, but it's not as good as OK State's.

On the other side of the coin, Stanford has a better run defense. Stanford ranks 5th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 90 yards per game. Stanford's defense allows 3.1 yards per rushing attempt (11th in the nation). OK State allows almost exactly twice as much rushing yardage per game as Stanford, allowing 180 yards per game (83rd in the nation). OK State allows 4.3 yards per rushing attempt (71st in the nation). OK State's rushing defense statistically is somewhat below average.

Stanford has a significant edge in 3rd down conversion defense, allowing only a 31% conversion rate (6th in the nation), compared to OK State's 41% (68th nationally). However, OK State does tighten up in the red zone, ranking 9th nationally in red zone scoring defense (72%). Stanford is 18th in red zone defense at 74%.

In turnovers, as has been much discussed, Oklahoma State ranks 1st nationally in take-aways (42) and 2nd in turnover margin (+20). Oklahoma State an average job of taking care of the ball, committing 22 turnovers (65th nationally), but they get so many take-aways that they still have a big positive margin. Stanford has a pretty good turnover margin of +6, which is 25th nationally. Stanford does very well at taking care of the ball with only 15 turnovers (9th nationally). Stanford is average in take-aways with 21 (55th nationally).

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense, defense, turnovers (revised) - FarmBoy - 12-21-2011

Quote:One observation I have made about our offense this season is that when our offense is clicking it is unstoppable but when its not we are prone to alot of 3 and outs.

Isn't that true for most teams? or is it just memory bias? I wonder if a team's chance of converting a first down is higher if they have already converted one down on the drive already or not. Statisticians have debunked a lot of the "hot hand" mythology in basketball, showing that players aren't more likely to make shots if they've made a string of recent shots. But people still believe it.

Quote:However, OK State does tighten up in the red zone, ranking 9th nationally in red zone scoring defense (72%).

I think this will be THE matchup of the game. Stanford's red zone offense is tops in the nation. OSU's red zone defense is #9. We don't tend to score a lot of TD's from outside the Red Zone. 50 of our 68 TDs were scored in the red zone this year. If OSU is effective at shutting us down there, we'll be in for a long day.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense, defense, turnovers (revised) - FarmBoy - 12-21-2011

Quote:One observation I have made about our offense this season is that when our offense is clicking it is unstoppable but when its not we are prone to alot of 3 and outs.

Quote:However, OK State does tighten up in the red zone, ranking 9th nationally in red zone scoring defense (72%).

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - washingtonismoney - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:10 PM)terry link Wrote:Stanford's pass defense is in the middle of the pack. Stanford allows 7.1 yards per attempt (61st out of 120 nationally), has a pass defense efficiency rating of 129.5 (62nd), and allows 11.6 yards per completion (55th). Stanford does have a better pass rush with 38 sacks (5th in the nation in sacks per game), compared to 28 sacks for OK State (27th nationally). Overall, Stanford has a decent pass defense, but it's not as good as OK State's.

On the other side of the coin, Stanford has a better run defense. Stanford ranks 5th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 90 yards per game. Stanford's defense allows 3.1 yards per rushing attempt (11th in the nation).

The number of sacks Stanford has significantly distorts the statistics on both sides of the ball. I don't understand why the NCAA lists sacks as rushes, but here we are. Distributing the 38 sacks for 292 yards into the rush column significantly decreases the average team's yards per attempt--from 7.1 to 5.8. Meanwhile, opponents on actual rushing attempts go from 3 yards/rush to a much more robust 4.42 yards/rush.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - washingtonismoney - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:10 PM)terry link Wrote:Stanford's pass defense is in the middle of the pack. Stanford allows 7.1 yards per attempt (61st out of 120 nationally), has a pass defense efficiency rating of 129.5 (62nd), and allows 11.6 yards per completion (55th). Stanford does have a better pass rush with 38 sacks (5th in the nation in sacks per game), compared to 28 sacks for OK State (27th nationally). Overall, Stanford has a decent pass defense, but it's not as good as OK State's.

On the other side of the coin, Stanford has a better run defense. Stanford ranks 5th nationally in rushing defense, allowing 90 yards per game. Stanford's defense allows 3.1 yards per rushing attempt (11th in the nation).

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - terry - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:42 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:The number of sacks Stanford has significantly distorts the statistics on both sides of the ball. I don't understand why the NCAA lists sacks as rushes, but here we are. Distributing the 38 sacks for 292 yards into the rush column significantly decreases the average team's yards per attempt--from 7.1 to 5.8. Meanwhile, opponents on actual rushing attempts go from 3 yards/rush to a much more robust 4.42 yards/rush.

I gave the rushing stats both ways -- with sacks included, as reported in the official stats, and with the sacks pulled out of the data to give a more pure picture of the rushing game.

I did not adjust the passing stats to incorporate stats. I think there's probably more value in looking at the pure passing stats without adjusting for sacks. But maybe in the future I'll think about showing the passing stats both ways.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - terry - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:42 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:The number of sacks Stanford has significantly distorts the statistics on both sides of the ball. I don't understand why the NCAA lists sacks as rushes, but here we are. Distributing the 38 sacks for 292 yards into the rush column significantly decreases the average team's yards per attempt--from 7.1 to 5.8. Meanwhile, opponents on actual rushing attempts go from 3 yards/rush to a much more robust 4.42 yards/rush.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - washingtonismoney - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:50 PM)terry link Wrote:I did not adjust the passing stats to incorporate stats. I think there's probably more value in looking at the pure passing stats without adjusting for sacks. But maybe in the future I'll think about showing the passing stats both ways.

I think it's worth thinking about them both ways--it can measure how much of a contribution the d-line vs. the secondary (to divide crudely) is making towards defense on pass plays. In our case, the pass rushers are doing a large part of the heavy lifting.

Re: Stanford vs. Oklahoma St. statistics -- offense - washingtonismoney - 12-21-2011

(12-21-2011, 05:50 PM)terry link Wrote:I did not adjust the passing stats to incorporate stats. I think there's probably more value in looking at the pure passing stats without adjusting for sacks. But maybe in the future I'll think about showing the passing stats both ways.