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Men\'s BBall Projections?  Wilner says 9th .... - Printable Version

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Men\'s BBall Projections?  Wilner says 9th .... - Leftcoast - 07-14-2010

Despite all the recent buzz he\'s probably right ... or at least close.   Tough to see where the scoring will come from and all those Frosh need to mature.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2010/07/13/pac-10-basketball-updated-projections-for-the-2010-11-league-race/



Re: Men\'s BBall Projections?  Wilner says 9th .... - washingtonismoney - 07-14-2010

I think it\'s a very conservative projection. It\'s possible, but I doubt it.

Wilner also massively overrates Cal. I\'m supposed to be convinced by a team with a good (but not as good as our) freshmen class and, uh, Max Zheng? Hunter Kamp? Jorge Gutierrez? Meh, meh to the first two; Gutierrez is the kind of good player who\'s only good on good teams.

Basically, the league is Washington and everyone else. So I could see Stanford finishing, say, fifth or so if things break well.

Re: Men\'s BBall Projections?  Wilner says 9th .... - Leftcoast - 07-14-2010

Well, Stanford has a lot of question marks as well.

Can Green handle being the primary option?   Has Mann developed a jump shot worthy of Pac 10 respect?   Can Owens contribute right away?   Will one of the big men emerge to control (or at least be a presence in) the paint?   And, most importantly, how will losing Fields impact the team\'s identity and scoring potential?

Wilner\'s Stanford projections are historically biased low in both football and basketball so it\'s no surprise he has us lower than others who follow the team suggest.  I don\'t read too much into his numerical ranking but I do see a schism widening between fan optimism and the demonstrated talent of our likely starters and I think the fans will be disappointed.

I believe Stanford\'s at least a year away from breaking into the Pac 10\'s upper half.

Off Topic:  Anyone hear how season tix are selling this year?   I\'m still shaking my head over the pricing decisions and hefty Buck Cardinal requirements that have been added over recent years.  

Declining attendance, 20 yr low in win totals, widespread projections of rebuilding seasons, nationwide recession and high local unemployment?   PERFECT TIME TO RAISE  PRICES!

Re: Men\'s BBall Projections?  Wilner says 9th .... - 97fan - 07-14-2010

One way to project how well the team will do is to look at who got minutes last season, how that allocation is likely to change this season, and whether the new allocation is an upgrade or downgrade.

Here\'s one guess of how things are likely to change...chime in where you disagree.

Downgrades:

Landry Fields: 1161 minutes played in 2009-10 (36 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes to be absorbed predominantly by Anthony Brown; Jeremy Green and Josh Huestis also likely to absorb some.
Verdict: extremely large downgrade

Drew Shiller: 901 minutes played (28 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes to be absorbed by Jarrett Mann, Gabe Harris, and Aaron Green
Verdict: medium downgrade

Upgrades:

Jack Trotter: 811 minutes played (25.3 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes likely to decrease, largely at the expense of Josh Owens, Dwight Powell and other freshmen
Verdict: medium upgrade

Da\'Veed Dildy: 323 minutes played (12 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes to be absorbed by Mann, Harris, and Green
Verdict: large upgrade

Emanuel Igbinosa: 231 minutes played (10 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes to be absorbed by Mann, Harris and Green
Verdict: large upgrade

Elliott Bullock: 212 minutes played (9.6 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes likely to decrease, largely at the expense of Josh Owens, Dwight Powell and other freshmen
Verdict: large upgrade

Matei Daian: 204 minutes played (8.2 mins per game)
2010-11 projection: minutes likely to decrease, largely at the expense of Josh Owens, Dwight Powell, and other freshmen
Verdict: large upgrade

What gives me hope that Stanford will be improved this year is that Dildy, Ignibosa, Daian and Bullock played a full 15 percent of the team\'s total minutes last season. Whoever takes those minutes should be an upgrade. In addition, Trotter, a former walk-on, played nearly 13 percent of the team\'s minutes, and his minutes should drop.  

On the other hand, Stanford is going to suffer a very large drop-off in replacing in Fields\' minutes (18 percent of the team\'s total).

The wild card, as I see it, is how Stanford does in replacing Drew Shiller\'s minutes (14 percent of the team\'s total). That\'s why Jarrett Mann, and to a lesser extent Gabe Harris and Aaron Bright, are probably the keys to the season.