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WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - 81alum - 03-02-2012

What do you think Ca.l will try on Sunday?  What adjustments should we make compared with the first meeting, that obviously did not go nearly as well as we would have hoped?

In perusing the  Ca.l boards I pick up the following in their threads about the coming game with Stanford.  There is some consensus that they should pack it in to limit our bigs and hope we don't hit our threes.  They observe that our three point shooting percentage is barely better than their own.  They believe they have a major advantage in guard play.  Britanny Boyd is unpredictable but they think we have no answer for her if she is "on."  Clarendon has been peaking at just the right time and they hope to have a monster game from her. 

I have a hunch that Gottlieb will have another surprise of some sort for us.  She saved the zone-press for the last few minutes of regulation last time and it confused us,  so she is probably busy trying to come up with something new that she can spring in a similar situation.

I think the Ca.l boards have identified the keys.  We will get good games from our bigs, but that may not be enough.  We will need to hold Boyd and Clarendon in check--meaning Amber and Lindy and Toni will have to play exceptional defense.  And we will need some threes to get the double teams off of Nneka and Chiney.

How do all of you believe this game will go?

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - 81alum - 03-02-2012

Just to remind people of our thread analyzing the last time we played them:
http://www.thecardboard.org/board/index.php/topic,5457.0.html
Ca.l double teamed Nneka and left Chiney free(er).  I doubt they will do exactly the same thing again after Chiney burned them so badly.

Amber and Lindy had poor offensive games but Toni managed to do well.  I think Amber has improved a lot since that earlier game, and I don't think Ca.l realizes that yet.  She may be a secret weapon, so to speak.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - 76lsjumb - 03-02-2012

(03-02-2012, 01:02 AM)81alum link Wrote:What do you think Ca.l will try on Sunday?  What adjustments should we make compared with the first meeting, that obviously did not go nearly as well as we would have hoped?

***
I have a hunch that Gottlieb will have another surprise of some sort for us.  She saved the zone-press for the last few minutes of regulation last time and it confused us,  so she is probably busy trying to come up with something new that she can spring in a similar situation.

Given that we have the Hall of Fame coach, two players on all of the Player of the Year Watch Lists, and the #2 ranking nationally, I was kind of wondering what sort of surprise we might be cooking up for them.  I would hope that Tara is busy trying to come up with something new that we can spring on them...and that there is no unwritten rule that, simply because we're supposed to be better, we're required to just "play our game" and leave the creativity up to our opponents [especially opponents who know us quite well].

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Yellowlab - 03-02-2012

Tara is fond of saying that by this time of year there are no more surprises.  Everyone will play Stanford the same way (pack it in) until Stanford starts burning people from the outside.

Hopefully, Sarah Booth can play, because C.al has serious size in the post.  I also hope Taylor is healthy enough to play, because it may very well be another dog fight.

Boyd was outstanding in the first game.  Clarendon went off towards the end of regulation.  As good as I think C.al is, I still think they need a lot of things to go exactly right for them in order to pull off the upset.  I will be nervous.

One other thing re: our previous 1 seed vs. 2 seed discussion.  Stanford is almost certainly going to have to travel for the 1st two rounds.  As a 1 seed, they will more likely be playing at a neutral site.  As a 2 seed, more likely in front of a hostile crowd.  Stanford will probably have to win out in order to get that 1 seed.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Viking_Guy - 03-02-2012

One other thing I noticed today: North Carolina lost in the quarters of the ACC tournament.  I'm hoping they'll finally drop off the bubble, which will create another neutral site and a natural destination for Duke.  The Tar Heels shouldn't even be sniffing the tournament, with an RPI in the 80s, no out-of-conference wins against anyone with an RPI in the top 200 (they only played 2 out of conference opponents with RPIs better than 237), and their one real quality win against #11 Miami early in the season balanced by a loss to RPI #235 Clemson.  It's one of the weakest 20-11 major conference resumes ever.

We'll see how much ticket sales matter to the NCAA, if they make it in over a Dayton or James Madison or Marist.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - M T - 03-02-2012

Quote:What do you think Ca.l will try on Sunday

I don't want to give Ca.l any hints.  Have their discussion groups revealed any flaws Stanford should be attacking?

Quote:Stanford is almost certainly going to have to travel for the 1st two rounds.  As a 1 seed, they will more likely be playing at a neutral site. As a 2 seed, more likely in front of a hostile crowd.
Actually, as a 1 seed, they may well be playing in front of a hostile crowd.  We just hope that crowd is supporting a relatively weaker team. 
The first round locations without a home team are
The two brackets I've looked at in the last 3 weeks had Stanford playing on Gonzaga's or Oklahoma's home court.  This week's ESPN bracketology has the Fresno regional 1st & 2nd rounds with these home teams (and seeding)  Oklahoma( 8, but RPI puts it at 4 ), LSU(5), Bowling Green(14), Iowa State(10).  Why should the #1 seed play on the home court of the #4/#8 seed, when there are first/second round venues without a home team?    Don't you think it is convenient that he ranks down Oklahoma dramatically and then Stanford winds up aligned against them in the 2nd round at their home???

The seeding (based strictly on NCAA RPI, not according to Creme's dreams) of the other first/second rounds are

Ames, IA - Iowa State - 12
Baton Rouge, LA - LSU - 8
Bowling Green, OH - Bowling Green - 15
Chicago - DePaul - 5
College Park, MD - Maryland - 2
College Station, TX - Texas A&M - 2
Nashville, TN - Vanderbilt - 7
Norman, OK - Oklahoma - 4
Notre Dame, IN - Notre Dame - 1
Spokane, WA - Gonzaga - 6
West Lafayette, IN - Purdue  - 8



Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Viking_Guy - 03-02-2012

MT--

That's why I stand by my earlier prediction: I think they'll find some way to downgrade Gonzaga to an #8-9 seed, and send Stanford there, rationalizing that it may violate their "no early rematches" principle, as well as screw the Bulldogs out of a deserved higher seed, but it keeps Stanford "geographically close", as if the 1000 mile flight to Spokane to face an underseeded team playing at home is somehow dramatically preferable to a 2500-mile flight to Tallahassee to face a true #8-9 seed on a neutral court.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Viking_Guy - 03-02-2012

And another one falls.  Duke just lost to ACC #9 seed NC State (RPI #95) in the quarterfinals of the tournament.  Don't think they have much of a claim to a #1 seed now.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Viking_Guy - 03-02-2012

Glenn--

You may well be right.  But it just grates that there is not a single subregional closer than 900 miles from central and southern California, and only one west of Norman, Oklahoma.  Forget about the actual tournament selection committee; who the heck is on the committee that picks the host sites?

It will really be annoying if Duke, having lost in its opening round of the ACC conference tournament against a team roughly the equivalent of the University of Washington, is rewarded as a #2 or #3 seed by virtue of the incompetence of the Tar Heels with a "neutral site" game all of 10.7 miles from Cameron.  Can we bribe convince Santa Clara to put in hosting bids every year Stanford can't host?

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Viking_Guy - 03-02-2012

Oh, and just to keep the ACC lovefest going: Miami, another ACC "powerhouse" that people were touting as a potential replacement for the "untested" Stanford Cardinal as a #1 seed?  They're losing by 15 points to RPI #97 Wake Forest at halftime.

Somehow I don't think that particular conference deserves three teams in the top 8 of the polls.

VG


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - CompSci87 - 03-02-2012

Hopefully we will not start hearing that these results prove that the ACC is "strong top to bottom" while the Pac-12 is "Stanford and the 11 dwarfs" and thus the ACC still is superior.


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - CompSci87 - 03-02-2012

Miami battled back to go ahead briefly with 5 minutes left, but Wake Forest ended up with the win. Wow, it's quite a year for upsets.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - 81alum - 03-02-2012

A few observations. 

1. Jake Curtis points out just how bad our 3 point shooting has become this year.  At 31.3% it is the worst in school history. 
http://www.examiner.com/stanford-cardinal-basketball-in-san-francisco/why-stanford-s-vanderveer-should-be-national-coach-of-the-year?CID=examiner_alerts_article
At least that makes it easy to know what opponent strategies will be.  Ca.l is not on to anything that is not obvious to everyone.

2. I wonder who will be officiating and how they will call it.  Last time we had a 10 point edge in free throws and even so they could have called a lot more fouls than they did.  Nneka, however, was only 6-18 and did not get a single free throw.  Hard to believe that she was double teamed and hacked for 43 minutes without getting a single free throw.  That defies credulity.

Chiney, on the other hand, got 12 FTA.  Not sure why the discrepancy.  I noticed when watching that game that they were calling fouls when the shooters' arms were getting hacked but that absolutely anything was being permitted from the armpits down.

3. Toni saved us in the first game, with 18 points.  The last 4 games she has scored 0, 6, 3, 6.  She is overdue to break out.  Of course, Amber and Joslyn and others could also break out--but I imagine that people named Ogwumike won't get us more points this time than they were able to last time, since the defensive strategy is so obvious.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Yellowlab - 03-02-2012

(03-02-2012, 06:10 PM)CompSci87 link Wrote:Miami battled back to go ahead briefly with 5 minutes left, but Wake Forest ended up with the win. Wow, it's quite a year for upsets.

But what if Stanford suffered an upset?  What if they play C.al 3 times and only win twice?  No. 2 seed for sure.  Behind Duke?  C'mon man.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - M T - 03-02-2012

(Sigh... I hate it when I type a DEL when my browser's focus is on this window but not in the input box.  I lose everything I've put in.)

What's with all the upsets?  I'll be very happy if there are no more upsets until April 3!

But, if Stanford should lose one, I don't see us moving out of a #1 seed.  RPI #9 & #11 just lost from the ACC.  That's got to hurt the RPI of #8(RPI) Maryland (who had 3 losses and 1 win against Miami & Duke).  So that leaves Tenn (#5), TX A&M(#6), Delaware(#7).  I just can't see moving Tenn with 8 losses ahead of a team that beat them.  The aggies are a little tougher to call, but 7 losses versus 2?  Delaware might have an outside shot, but I think not.  So I think we would be a #1 seed.

A more interesting question is whether ND moves ahead of Stanford if they beat UConn again.

Nneka averages 21.6 points and 10.6 rebounds in 29.2 minutes.  If she plays 40 minutes a game, that would be 29.6 points and 14.5 rebounds per game.  We expect her to play more over the next (hopefully) 10 games, albeit against tougher opponents.  If she could average 36.5 points for the next 10 games, she could catch Candice.  Unlikely, but a nice thought.  More likely is averaging 12.03 rebounds over 10 games to catch Kayla.


Two The School near Oakland tickets -- free - CompSci87 - 03-03-2012

I have two extra General Admission tickets for the game at The School near Oakland. Email me if you want them -- no charge. (Follow the link to my web page to get my email address.) They are print-at-home, so I will just email the tickets to you and you can print them. What could be easier?

Note that most of the seats at Haas are general admission, and the reserved sections are sold out at this point.

The tickets are taken now (by a very deserving recipient!).


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - CompSci87 - 03-03-2012

(03-03-2012, 07:19 AM)garvin link Wrote:Is there a free plane ticket included in the deal?

For you, I'd do that... but the tickets are taken already.  ;)


Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - M T - 03-03-2012

Saturday Noon PT:  In the Maryland-Wake Forest game on ESPNU, the announcers say that Creme has updated his bracketology (I'd make a play of words on "cream of the crop", but maybe it would be deemed inappropriate).  It hasn't happened on the website yet, but if he makes his brackets up for Monday by Saturday noon, then that would help to explain some of the foolishness.

Their graphic shows Last 4 In:  NC, MI, So C.al, Texas
Last 4 out:  James Madison, Dayton, OK St, BYU.

Their next graphic shows No. Carolina as RPI 88.  "Second hardest schedule in the ACC." where they are 9-7.  Gag....

Do you think that he's intentionally making them bad so people can say of the eventual real bracket, "Well, at least it isn't as bad as ESPN's" ?

---
I didn't see the first half of the Baylor - Iowa State game, where it was tied (32-32 IIRC, with 7 3ptrs for Iowa State).  Baylor destroyed them in the second half, with the help of a 2-1-2 full court press.  I'm glad we've worked on breaking the press.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - Yellowlab - 03-03-2012

Kentucky just went down to LSU.  Another top ten team gets bounced early.

This should work in Stanford's favor, but it probably won't.  I still think there is a good chance that Maryland gets a number 1 seed over Stanford unless Stanford wins out.  It's happened before.

I also think that it's about time we got over the idea that there is so much more separation in the women's game.  That used to be true, but I think all these upsets stick a fork in that notion.  Anyone can lose to anybody. 

It does make the winning streaks all the more impressive.

Re: WBB: Stanford @ Ca.l preview - FarmDad.01 - 03-03-2012

Stanford's home-win streak is occurring 2,500 miles and three time zones west of Bristol CT. So if the Cardinal eventually bests UConn's 99-win home streak... like the tree falling in an empty forest, will anyone hear?