Beating Baylor - Printable Version

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Beating Baylor - FarmDad.01 - 03-31-2012

They were held under 70 four times this season, resulting in their narrowest wins.

* Make Griner earn her 25-30 points from the field, not the foul line (where she shoots ~80%). She has a nice, soft fadeaway-- which also takes her out of prime rebounding position. Letting her put up 20+ shots keeps the ball from second-leading scorer Sims.

* Sims is very hot-and-cold, especially from 3-pt range. If she's cold, let her shoot. If she's hot, switch Chiney on her? That would be a four-inch height advantage to Stanford.

* Don't be afraid to hoist a lot of 3s, though preferably not early in the shot clock. a) Stanford's accuracy has improved in the post-season. b) Those shots are unalterable by Griner absent a goaltending call. c) Misses tend to rebound long: beyond her reach and into second-chance opportunities for anyone following up her shot.

In February, Texas Tech fell 51-56 @ Baylor, but hit 7/13 from long-range (v. 10/36 inside). Also in February, Texas A&M was only 1/7 from long range (v. 25/49 inside), and fell 62-69.

Baylor doesn't have the length to challenge Tinkle, Greenfield and Samuelson (and Nneka) from deep, and Kokenis (shooting slump and all) is adept at wandering off by her lonesome. I say, bombs away...

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Re: Beating Baylor - M T - 03-31-2012

I thought Baptists don't go to dances...

Baylor's player's average playing time & height for players with > 10min/gm
Griner  32.4 6'8"
Sims  31.8  5'9"
Hayden 26.0  6'0"
Williams 25.6  6'1"
Madden 25.1  6'0"
Condrey 19.1  5'7"
Pope 14.8  6'1"

So there's no one on their team with much playing time that is taller than 6'1".
Stanford has
Nneka 30.3 6'2"
Toni 30.0  5'11"
Chiney 28.5  6'3"
Jos 23.9  6'3"
Lindy 22.5  5'8"
Amber 19.3  5'7"
Taylor 17.5  6'3"
Bonnie 10.8  6'3"
Sarah 10.4  6'5"

So Baylor will likely have the height advantage on one or two players, and Stanford will have advantage on 3 or 4.
Sims is their shooter; Williams is their rebounder (more rebounds/minute than Griner).  I'd guess that Chiney will guard Williams.  On defense, I might put Jos (more experienced at blocking out, less critical if she gets early fouls) on Brittney.

On offense, I'd put one O sister on each block.  Nneka's fade away shots might be useful if Griner is on her, but Griner may be on Chiney.

I might disagree about the early 3s in particular cases.  If Brittney is slow down the court to the defensive end, we should use our 5 on 4 advantage.  One way is those assists off the rim.  A few of those might get Brittney to run more and be more tired.

(most numbers reflect average per 40 min)

Rebounding is about even.

Baylor opponents had an average of 62.7 FGA and 45.2 offensive rebound opportunities (ORO)  Baylor averaged 59.2 FGA and 34.3 ORO.  Stanford opp. had 60.4 FGA and 42.3 ORO.  Stanford had 62.2 FGA and 35.6 ORO.  Stanford had more FGA than their opponents; Baylor had fewer. 

Baylor had 7.9 blocks.  Baylor opp. had 2.3 blocks. Stanford had 4.7 blocks.  Stanford opp. had 2.4 blocks.

What point value would you put on a block?  I'll note that a block is less valuable than a steal.  A steal definitely ends a possession.  A block seems about the same as a missed shot. It doesn't definitely end the possession.  If a team is shooting 50% from 2pt range (where a block happens), then a block converts a 50% chance into a 0% chance, or about 1 point.  If we assume that block recoveries are like offensive rebounds, if a team rebounds 40% of their offensive chances, and scores an average of 1.75 points/possession (which is what I've estimated for Stanford), they get a lot of that 1 point back, leaving a net value of 0.3 points.  Baylor's advantage on blocks works out to be worth about 1 point, or probably a bit more for 2 reasons:  (a) That 1.75 pts/possession is based on a 30 second possession, but recovered shot blocks are shorter possessions; (b) blocked shots are probably more in the 70-80% range. Still, if Baylor blocks are worth 1 point advantage, that's still only 3.2 points advantage.  (It is harder to estimate the effect of altered shots.)

I'm more concerned about the 2 extra steals by Baylor than I am about the extra 3.2 blocks.  But, when I look at total turnovers, I'd have to guess TO will wind up about equal.

It is a concern that Baylor has more assists than us.  That's reflects good team play.

The foul numbers are clearly in Baylor's favor.  I'm sure that is a function of trying to defend Griner.  It is something we can control, and I hope we do.  Griner definitely reaches over people for rebounds and blocks, without fouling.  Knowing how to jump up through her arms should be a method to get fouls called on her.  If more overall fouls are called, I think it will be more beneficial to Stanford as we seem to have more (potential) depth.  (I say "potential" because Taylor and Bonnie haven't proved themselves in the tourney.)

If we are at a point where there are noticeably more fouls on us than Baylor (late in the 1st, early in the 2nd), I might put Sarah B. in when Griner is in.  The refs may be less inclined to call fouls on her and more inclined to call them on Griner.  I don't think Sarah can block out Griner nor shoot over her.  She'd be in there just to give the O sisters a rest and maybe to get some fouls called on Griner.

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Re: Beating Baylor - oman - 04-01-2012

I'm kind of frightened.  Griner is like the cracken  of ladies.

Picket fence.  Five passes.

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Re: Beating Baylor - M T - 04-01-2012

Griner is no 300-pounder with slow feet, but she does have a tendency to jog down the court.  To test my assertion, I just went back and watched the first 10 minutes of each half of Baylor@A&M, that was a close game.  (The most notable thing about this is that Sims had 3 fouls with 17 minutes left; Griner got her 3rd with about 15 minutes left, and her fourth with about 11 minutes left.  With 12 minutes left, one A&M big had fouled out; the other had 4 fouls.)

In the  first 10 minutes of the first half, Baylor was well out in front.  There were surprisingly few transitions to A&M offense (after missed basket, etc).  In the first 10 minutes of the second half, A&M tied it up, took the lead, and was 3 points down when Griner went out with just over 10 minutes left.

Here are Griner's positions among the Baylor players in getting down the floor on transititions. (1=first player at the top of the 3 point arc, x = non-transition possession change, F=fast break (Griner not involved))

Baylor transitions to offense: 33Fxx22513423xxx4  x1xF32xxxxx4x1x
A&M    transitions to offense: xxxx34xxxxx2xxxx3  x553xxx4xxxxx?xx


It is the A&M transitions to offense that I'm talking about.  (I don't care if she is slow coming down on her own offense.  If she's quick coming down, that gives them an opportunity for a fast break.)

One would expect Griner to be 3rd down on A&M offensive transitions (Baylor defensive transitions) normally.  Typically two guards are defending the A&M guards bringing the ball down, so they'll be 4th and 5th.  Those two 5s and two 4s are possible opportunities for the opponent.  Griner may be slow because she was trying to rebound.  Whatever the reason, if Stanford can hustle to get the ball down court, Griner may have to run more than she is used to, or Stanford has a big advantage on offensive rebounding early in the possession.

Even if we are dribbling up behind Griner as she's still coming down the court, I believe there is an opportunity to follow her into the lane and then pass off to the opposite side if she turns. (If Griner turns to her left, pass off to Nneka on the right, etc)

As I said, "It is harder to estimate the effect of altered shots."  But, for a block, I stand by my numbers.

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