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Early Point Spread Fun - Printable Version

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Early Point Spread Fun - Farm93 - 06-11-2012

Baseball done.  :'(  It's then time for Stanford Football.  ;D

Way, way, too early, but entertainment only style point spreads are making their way onto the net.  Of the few that I saw, Stanford would be favored in 9 of the 12 games in 2012.  Stanford would be roughly a TD underdog to SC, a 3-5 point dog at Notre Dame, and a 2 TD+ underdog at Oregon.

So in order for me to maintain my positive outlook, I now need to believe the 2012 Stanford team will win 10 (or more) games in the regular season.  Hmmmm.

I am not sure I am THAT upbeat about the chances.  However, since the close favorite spread games appear to be UW and UCB, I don't really want to mentally entertain more than 3 losses in 2012.  So I will accept the glass is not half empty while adopting an outlook for a 9 win season.

Though, in truth, I suspect 8 wins represents a sensible and balanced outlook, as long as UCB is one of the 8.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - washingtonismoney - 06-11-2012

The thing you have to take into account when thinking about some of these lines is that casinos aren't looking to reflect reality or an actual prediction of the game--instead, they set lines that reflect they action they're going to receive. So, to propose a hypothetical here, a team with a large, somewhat delusional fanbase that always believes next year is this year despite objective evidence otherwise might get overrated in the lines.

Then again, I can't think of any of our opponents like that. Carry on.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - Farm93 - 06-11-2012

Obviously, Rural Indiana University is most likely to get unwarranted gambling support.  The spreads I noticed were close enough that if one discounts that bias from blindly loyal money AND then one discounts any mystical relgiously based home field advantage then Stanford vs RIU could be perceived as a pick-em.

There could likely be 2 games, USC and Oregon, with Stanford as a big underdog.  There could be three that could be pick-em type spreads (RIU, UW and UCB).  And then the others would seem to have Stanford as a significant favorite.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - StannyBoy - 06-11-2012

Underdog in south bend? Which QB on their roster is going to be able to beat our D? Riddle me this. Riddle me that.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - yvonne - 06-11-2012

RIU, meh. School near Oakland, and the school near a BART station were much better.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - CowboyIndian - 06-12-2012

South Bend is not exactly rural, either. I could go for Religulous Indiana University, though.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - Farm93 - 06-12-2012

I agree that USB is not that strong.  Last year I was shocked to see that Stanford players were faster AND stronger at almost every position on O and D.  So I am not super sure how they get to become a big favorite, still these things are done for entertainment and without LUCK I could see how Notre Dame could be favored.

If you apply that gambling line fun to the Notre Dame season their implied record is also 9-3.  So I think it could be close if both teams are playing near the gambling line expectations.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - fullmetal - 06-12-2012

I remember the first time I looked up South Bend on the map.  It was most certainly not 'south' in any sense of the word with respect to Indiana. 

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - OutsiderFan - 06-12-2012

I like Northern Indiana Parochial School - NIPS



Re: Early Point Spread Fun - fullmetal - 06-12-2012

The NIPS Fighting Irish...oh my.

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - CowboyIndian - 06-12-2012

Southeast Chicago Tech: SECT

Re: Early Point Spread Fun - yvonne - 06-12-2012

It says college, not school.