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Preseason Record Prognostication - yvonne - 07-31-2012

Vote, then tell us why you made the selection that you did. Your comments below will be the only verification when you claim, "I told you so!"

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - FarmBoy - 08-01-2012

I'm going with 8-9. Rookie QB's are always good for an unexpected loss. Beating either U.SC or Oregon would be a major accomplishment, and are unlikely to happen. And we've got a tough road schedule with UW, C.al and Neutre Dame. I'd say 8 wins is probably about right.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - washingtonismoney - 08-01-2012

To use the expected values method:

SJSU: 99%
Duke: 95%
SC: 35%
@UW: 65%
UA: 90%
@ND: 55%
@59ers: 65%
WSU: 75%
@CU: 80%
OSU: 75%
@UO: 25%
@UCLA: 70%
=8.29 wins

I used the You're Always Such A Pessimist Method - Redrum - 08-01-2012

8-9 wins would have been my reflexive choice.  I decided to let my optimism run free in the field and clicked 10-11.  I think the USC and Oregon games are correctly weighted by WIM.  But if our QB situation resolves tepidly,  there's at least another loss lurking in that lineup.  The big question is how will the team react to adversity?  Will a loss,  particularly an unexpected loss knock these guys waay off their game subsequently?    In the non-recent past we used to know the answer to that question.  now it's more or a lingering, nagging kind of thought.  I don't know which would be more painful,  the loss  or actually knowing how we lost.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - washingtonismoney - 08-01-2012

Well, to be fair, there's a pretty decent way to justify 10-11. The average team losing a QB who's a top 5 draft pick loses about 8.5 points per game. That puts our margin of victory at around 13 points per game. Now, you can make the case that we'll be harder hit by erosion than other teams due to the quality departing our offense--but then again I expect the defense to be better, perhaps even considerably better, than in 2011.

Anyway, if you average around 13 points per game margin of victory, you will likely win...10 or 11 games. Basically I think this season is extremely high variance.

Fun with probabilities - FarmBoy - 08-01-2012

Assuming WIM's estimates are accurate, I used Excel to run thousands of simulations of the seasons. Here is our distribution of wins:

OVERALL:
4 0.3%
5 2.0%
6 7.5%
7 16.8%
8 26.5%
9 26.3%
10 15.0%
11 4.8%
12 0.6%

Pac-12
1 0.1%
2 0.5%
3 3.3%
4 10.9%
5 23.4%
6 30.4%
7 21.9%
8 8.4%
9 1.1%

Pac-12 North
0 0.5%
1 5.5%
2 21.0%
3 37.8%
4 28.8%
5 6.5%

So a 20% chance of winning 10 or more games, 53% chance of winning 8-9, 24% 6-7, and 2.4% chance of being bowl-ineligible.

There's only a 31% chance of winning 7+ games in the league. 6-3 or 5-4 is pretty likely.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - Extra Point - 08-01-2012

9 and 3 regular season and a bowl wind!

I got this information from a world class psychic in Las Vegas. Shes says that football games are won on the offensive and defensive front lines.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - 82lsju - 08-01-2012

I think we win 9 or 10 regular season games and a bowl game, so I'm in for 10-11.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - JohnR34231 - 08-01-2012

I think 10 is optimistic, 8-9 realistic, anything less pessimistic.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - pefloresjr - 08-01-2012

Well, I'm saying the current Stanford roll continues.  10-2 regular season with a bowl win to make it 11.  Only a few more days until camp opens!
Cheers,
Pete F.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - pcgoode - 08-01-2012

I think WIM's method is pretty accurate, although I think the games against the Ducks and USC have the possibility of being closer than people might otherwise think, and there is a possibility of an upset in one or both games.  I think the Ducks will end up missing D Thomas more than many think, and if one of DeA Thomas or KJB goes down with an injury, I'm not sure that they have a lot of depth to back them up.  WRT USC, I think the quality and depth of their d-line could be issues for them.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - CrazedZooChimp - 08-01-2012

I voted for 8-9 reflexively, before realizing this included the bowl game, so I would actually say 10 wins (as I want to win the damn bowl).  Basically as I look at the schedule, I have a hard time seeing more than 3 losses during the regular season, unless some other teams are better than I think they will be.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - jayasena - 08-01-2012

I voted for 10 -- 9 regular season wins + bowl win.

I'm usually pessimistic on these things but this time I decided to be optimistic while I still can. After this season, I doubt I will be optimistic for next year. Oh well, my optimism lasted long enough to click the "vote" button...

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - CowboyIndian - 08-01-2012

I voted for 12+
I'd rather be president than right.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - Hank 91 - 08-02-2012

I've got a thorough game-by-game explanation over at GoMightyCard (which, interestingly enough, attracted lots of sniping from Cal fans when I said Big Game was a "guaranteed lock"), but I settled at an 8-4 predicted record. In my heart of hearts, I really think we'll win nine games, but I forced myself to be a bit more realistic. So 8-4 plus a win in a bowl game for nine wins overall.

I must admit, however, that more and more I'm thinking we'll beat U.S.C., which I've initially got down as a probable loss. We'll see.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - Leftcoast - 08-04-2012

Yup .... I like 82LSJU's logic; a 9-3 with a bowl game win = 10 win season.  We lose to either Oregon and either USC, ND or Washington with one other unexpected loss.  Pundits make us an "up and coming" team for the 2013 season and UCB fans all groan over another Big Game loss.  I'll take it with a smile.



Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - george - 08-04-2012

Yikes, I guess I've been exposed as the board pessimist.  It is wonderful that Stanford football has come so far, that my vote is currently the lowest and yet I'm still picking the team to be bowl eligible.  I thought there'd be a couple of votes in the 6-7 range, but seeing as how there aren't so far, I want to downvote myself. 

Maybe there's too much Buddy & Wlat baggage in my system, but key personnel losses have me concerned.  As far as the games themselves, here's where I think the losses will come.

1) USC -- if this game were later in the season then I think we'd get them given some of their depth concerns.  But early in the season, they will almost certainly be at full strength.  Also for whatever reason we seem to play them better in LA.

2) Oregon -- It's just such a bad matchup for us.

3) Washington -- It wasn't so long ago that we couldn't win in Seattle.  This will be the first start for our QB in a hostile environment and I don't know if David Shaw can get the team as fired up to beat their coaching staff as Harbaugh used to.

4) C.al -- They'll have their stadium back and despite recent history I still fear Jeff Tedford.  Plus now that we have the early season game, it won't be one where the players have imploded and given up on the season.

5) ND and/or UCLA/UA/WSU  -- Both games will be away.  After so many years of being a one-sided rivalry, we've finally started to give ND fits on the field and on the recruiting trail.  I feel like they'll be up for this game.  3 new coaches and systems, I'm thinking one of them manages to get us.

I really really hope I'm wrong.  Please downvote me -- I deserve it.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - washingtonismoney - 08-04-2012

(08-04-2012, 08:37 PM)george link Wrote:4) kal -- They'll have their stadium back and despite recent history I still fear Jeff the UC system's highest paid employee.  Plus now that we have the early season game, it won't be one where the players have imploded and given up on the season.

5) ND and/or UCLA/UA/WSU  -- Both games will be away.  After so many years of being a one-sided rivalry, we've finally started to give ND fits on the field and on the recruiting trail.  I feel like they'll be up for this game.  3 new coaches and systems, I'm thinking one of them manages to get us.

re: 5) UCLA's the only away game of the trio you list in the latter. Your ND prediction is also a classic gambler's fallacy.

re: 4): the 59ers have shown plenty of capability of imploding no matter what time of season it is. See 2009, where weeks 4 and 5 saw a drubbing by a combined 76-6. 2010 featured losses to Nevada by 21 in week 3, and Arizona in week 4, and SC in week 6. Weeks 4 through 6 were three straight losses in 2011.

T.edford's teams will implode whenever they feel like, really.

Anyway, it's not at all outlandish that the team will go 7-5, even without stuff like an epidemic of injury. I just don't think it's terribly likely. We lose a lot of talent, but everyone always loses talent. That's the game. It's what we return that's important. We return quite a bit and are bringing in the best recruiting class of any of our opponents.

Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - socalstanfan1 - 08-04-2012

I went 8-9 wins, with the thinking that this is transition year in so many areas of the team: QB, OL, WR (well, that position seems chronically up in the air), S.  Yes, this is the nature of college football where kids graduate and move on, but I think it will take a while to figure out a few of those areas.  We'll be considerably better by the second half of the season, if both coaches and players do their jobs; but I suspect the first half will have some tough times, particularly on offense.  None of this is terribly earth shattering or particularly insightful for Stanford football followers, of course.  The positive possibility: if the QB matures quickly, and the OL gels by about week 4 or so, the rest of the season could be very, very good.  And next year could be fantastic again.


Re: Preseason Record Prognostication - JeffInCorvallis - 08-05-2012

Put me down for 9 wins in the regular season.  Whoever our QB is this year reminds us that they are not Andrew Luck and starts out slowly against SJSU and Duke.  We have enough to win those games but they're not the cakewalks everyone is expecting.  We start to get our act together in time for U$C, but they are too good for us this year.  We give them a good game but that's loss #1.  We lose one of the next 3 against either UW, Arizona, or the Domers.  Despite the Big Game being in October it is ours, and then we roll through Wazzu, Colorado, and OSU.  I've been at the last several games against the Ducks and I don't see any way we win that game (although I'll be there and happy to be wrong).  UCLA is the surprise team of the Pac 12 as they are loaded with talent and finally have a decent coach, but the Alamo Bowl hangs in the balance and we pull out another close game.  Stepfan Taylor finishes second in the Voldemort voting.  We travel to San Antonio and get a rematch with Oklahoma State.  Jordan Williamson kicks the game-winning field goal as time expires.  We ride the high all the way to the following year's BCS championship game.