Opening night compared with our last non-Luck opening night - Printable Version
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Opening night compared with our last non-Luck opening night - 81alum - 09-01-2012
Thought it might be instructive to look back and see how last nights game stacks up against our last opening game we played prior to Luck. That was in 2008 vs. Oregon State, with Luck sitting in a redshirt on the sideline.
In 2008 our quarterback was Tavita Pritchard and the main running back was Toby Gerhardt, who was about to have a breakout season.
Gerhardt ran 19 times for 152 yards and averaged 7.7 yards per carry.
Tavita was 10-17 for 91 yards with no interceptions and 1 touchdown.
The longest pass anyone caught was 18 yards to Doug Baldwin.
The offense was only 4 of 13 on 3rd down conversions, but we still managed 18 first downs, 10 of them by rushing since we had so many long runs.
My guess is that the 2008 game was EXACTLY what Shaw expected would happen last night. A conservative ground game was going to propel Stefan Taylor through the holes the way Toby Gerhardt ran four years ago. Nunes would not have to be much different than Tavita was, and long passes would not be required.
But our game last night was offensively quite inferior to the 2008 game, and it was not because of Nunes. Nor do I believe that Taylor somehow lacks the ability that Gerhardt showed at the time. In my view, the blame has to be laid squarely on the O-Line. The O-Line is not only not back to where it was last year, it is not back to where it was four years ago.
Some blame unimaginative playcalling. I think it is true that our playcalling last night was predictable. However, in the past that has not mattered. On opening day 4 years ago we rushed 48 times and passed 17 times, without a single long completion. The strategy that year was to wear down the opponents run stop defense to the point that we could simply dominate the line in the fourth quarter, which we did in many games. Last nights game it seemed that this was the strategy, but it failed miserably. We were not able to run the ball consistently even in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line.
The O-line run blocking simply must improve, and dramatically, and quickly. It will be hard enough for our green secondary to keep up with the Spoiled Children even if they only have to do it for 20-25 minutes. But put them out there for 35-40 minutes and we could see one of the uglier games in recent memory.
Question to people who have followed this closely: who is coaching our offensive line? What kind of job has he been doing? What needs to happen?
Re: Opening night compared with our last non-Luck opening night - washingtonismoney - 09-01-2012
This is an interesting comparison. It's just so hard to tell based on one game. For example, if you compare this year to last year, you can spin the OL play as a positive. In 2011 the team gained 3.5 yards per carry with no sacks; in 2012, 4.6 yards per carry with a sack (that, judging from the video provided on ESPN.com, looks more like Nunes' fault than the OL's).
I think the issue is basically that our offensive line just starts slow, for whatever reason. Through two games last year, a lot of people were justifiably asking whether we'd have a lot of problems replacing the three missing starters--we weren't running great, and Luck had to muster a lot of magic to avoid getting hit more often (...but still quite often). Same thing happened in 2009. The only year I think our OL started out well out of the gate was 2010, and that was probably because we returned four experienced starters that year, and were able to put in a fifth-year senior as the final piece of the puzzle.
One criticism I would have of whomever made this decision was moving Yankey from guard to LT. Shaw explained quite clearly why he preferred not to do it, and with the descriptions of how good the young tackles were, I expected Shaw to really get their feet wet immediately. Maybe Shaw's taking a more deliberate approach. At any rate, Yankey's athleticism at guard is a very good fit for what we want to do on offense.
Re: Opening night compared with our last non-Luck opening night - 81alum - 09-02-2012
Another comparison: This game compared with the last time we played SJSU without Luck, in 2008.
The last time we played SJSU without Luck, in 2008, it was NOT our opening game. In fact we had already played 3 games, beating Oregon State and losing to Arizona State and TCU.
2008
Pritchard threw 13 of 28 with 1 interception and 0 touchdowns for 159 yards, taking 1 sack
Gerhart rushed 22 times for 152 yards, averaging 6.7 ypc
We were 6/14 on third down conversions.
We had 0 fumbles and 0 interceptions, and 5 penalties for 53 yards.
We had 363 yards of total offense.
We lost time of possession 27 to 33
SJSU led 10-0 until we ground out a victory that was not assured until we scored 10 points in the last four minutes of the game.
2012
Nunes threw 15 of 26 with 0 interceptions and 1 touchdown for 125 yards, taking 1 sack
Taylor rushed 26 times for 122 yards, averaging 4.5 ypc
We were 2/12 on third down conversions.
We lost 0 fumbles and 0 interceptions, and had 1 penalty for 5 yards.
We had 280 yards of total offense.
We won time of possession by a minute.
SJSU tied the game with 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter and kept the game in doubt until we intercepted with a minute left in the game.
In 2012 we had fewer penalties, better time of possession, about equal quarterback play, but less effective running which led to a much worse performance on third down conversions. The two games were somewhat similar in several ways, including the fact they they were not really decided until late.
But in 2008 we were in the 4th game of the season. By that measure we are as good in our first game as we were then in our 4th. I hope that means we are ahead of the 2008 pace. We'd better be. A 5-7 season would be a major disappointment after what this program has accomplished the last few years.